Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. US Housing Market Real Estate Crash The Next Shoe To Drop – Part II - Chris_Vermeulen
2.The Coronavirus Greatest Economic Depression in History? - Nadeem_Walayat
3.US Real Estate Housing Market Crash Is The Next Shoe To Drop - Chris_Vermeulen
4.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications and AI Mega-trend Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Are Coronavirus Death Statistics Exaggerated? Worse than Seasonal Flu or Not?- Nadeem_Walayat
6.Coronavirus Stock Market Trend Implications, Global Recession and AI Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
7.US Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Debt Climax - James_Quinn
8.Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis and Forecast - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Britain's FAKE Coronavirus Death Statistics Exposed - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Commodity Markets Crash Catastrophe Charts - Rambus_Chartology
Last 7 days
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market - 12th Jul 20
Spotify Recealed as The “Next Netflix” - 12th Jul 20
Getting Ahead of the Game: What Determines the Prices of Oil? - 12th Jul 20
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again - 11th Jul 20
The Bearish Combination of Soaring Silver and Lagging GDX Miners - 11th Jul 20
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" - 10th Jul 20
Prepare for the global impact of US COVID-19 resurgence - 10th Jul 20
Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction - 10th Jul 20
Declaring Your Independence from Currency Debasement - 10th Jul 20
Tech Stocks Trending Towards the Quantum AI EXPLOSION! - 9th Jul 20
Gold and Silver Seasonal Trend Analysis - 9th Jul 20
Facebook and IBM Tech Stocks for Machine Learning Mega-Trend Investing 2020 - 9th Jul 20
LandRover Discovery Sport Service Blues, How Long Before Oil Change is Actually Due? - 9th Jul 20
Following the Gold Stock Leaders as the Fed Prints - 9th Jul 20
Gold RESET Breakout on 10 Reasons - 9th Jul 20
Fintech facilitating huge growth in online gambling - 9th Jul 20
Online Creative Software Development Service Conceptual Approach - 9th Jul 20
Coronavirus Pandemic UK and US Second Waves, and the Influenza Doomsday Scenario - 8th Jul 20
States “On the Cusp of Losing Control” and the Impact on the Economy - 8th Jul 20
Gold During Covid-19 Pandemic and Beyond - 8th Jul 20
UK Holidays 2020 - Driving on Cornwall's Narrow Roads to Bude Caravan Holiday Resort - 8th Jul 20
Five Reasons Covid Will Change SEO - 8th Jul 20
What Makes Internet Packages Different? - 8th Jul 20
Saudi Arabia Eyes Total Dominance In Oil And Gas Markets - 7th Jul 20
These Are the Times That Call for Gold - 7th Jul 20
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures - 7th Jul 20
The Beatings Will Continue Until the Economy Improves - 6th Jul 20
The Corona Economic Depression Is Here - 6th Jul 20
Stock Market Short-term Peaking - 6th Jul 20
Gold’s Major Reversal to Create the “Handle” - 5th July 20
Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve - 5th July 20
Overclockers UK Custom Build PC Review - 1. Ordering / Stock Issues - 5th July 20
How to Bond With Your Budgie / Parakeet With Morning Song and Dance - 5th July 20
Silver Price Trend Forecast Summer 2020 - 3rd Jul 20
Silver Market Is at a Critical Juncture - 3rd Jul 20
Gold Stocks Breakout Not Confirmed Yet - 3rd Jul 20
Coronavirus Strikes Back. But Force Is Strong With Gold - 3rd Jul 20
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets - 3rd Jul 20
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Big Pharma Stock for Machine Learning Life Extension Investing - 2nd Jul 20
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook - 2nd Jul 20
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon - 2nd Jul 20
US Fourth Turning Reaches Boiling Point as America Bends its Knee - 2nd Jul 20
After 2nd Quarter Economic Carnage, the Quest for Philippine Recovery - 2nd Jul 20
Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go - 2nd Jul 20
Roosevelt 2.0 and ‘here, hold my beer' - 2nd Jul 20
U.S. Dollar: When Almost Everyone Is Bearish... - 1st Jul 20
Politicians Prepare New Money Drops as US Dollar Weakens - 1st Jul 20
Gold Stocks Still Undervalued - 1st Jul 20
High Premiums in Physical Gold Market: Scam or Supply Crisis? - 1st Jul 20
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move - 1st Jul 20
In The Year 2025 If Fiat Currency Can Survive - 30th Jun 20
Gold Likes the IMF Predicting a Deeper Recession - 30th Jun 20
Silver Is Still Cheap For Now - 30th Jun 20
More Stock Market Selling Ahead - 30th Jun 20
Trending Ecommerce Sites in 2020 - 30th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice - 29th Jun 20
APPLE Tech Stock for Investing to Profit from the Machine Learning Mega trend - 29th Jun 20
Student / Gamer Custom System Build June 2020 Proving Impossible - Overclockers UK - 29th Jun 20
US Dollar with Ney and Gann Angles - 29th Jun 20
Europe's Banking Sector: When (and Why) the Rout Really Began - 29th Jun 20
Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! - 29th Jun 20
Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs - 29th Jun 20
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared - 29th Jun 20
Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid - 28th Jun 20
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment - 28th Jun 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

AI Stocks 2020-2035 15 Year Trend Forecast

Scotland Independence Result NO Win 55% to Yes on 45%

ElectionOracle / Scotland Sep 18, 2014 - 08:25 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The Scotland independence referendum polls close in just over 1 hours time (10pm) with record turnout of at least 85% expected. Following which the count begins that could take a further 8 hours before the mainstream media starts declaring its results by between 5am and 6am Friday morning.


However, as my series of articles of the past year have demonstrated the reasons why the majority of Scots will vote NO ,who have been increasingly bullied by ever more aggressive YES campaigners into silence during September, the probability for a NO vote has remained at a constant 70% despite what I deem to be erroneous opinion polls of the past few weeks painting a picture of a near 50/50 too close to call outcome. Instead as my most recent article of a early this morning concluded:

Scottish Independence Referendum Result NO 55%, YES 45% - Vote Forecast

Therefore the most probable outcome is inline with the polling ranges of before the YES campaigns intimidation and fear phase began to play a prominent role in the frenzy of campaigning of September that rather than a 50/50 tight race is more probably going to result in at least a 55% NO vote victory, and I would not be surprised if the NO vote even breaks above 60%!

As expected the financial markets have reacted positively on polling day ahead of the result with stocks, bonds and the British Pound rallying strongly to currently stands at £/$1.636, up from the recent low of £/$1.603. Expect further sterling strength throughout the night as the strength of the NO vote becomes apparent.

My expectations are for a further acceleration following a NO vote, for the British Pound to recoup ALL of the recent decline from £/$1.72 and then continue onwards towards my long standing target of £/$1.80 before year end.

For more facts on why Scotland voted NO so as to maintain their English subsidy of £1730 per head of population see my recent articles and videos as opposed to SNP delusional propaganda such as that Scotland would share the British Pound in a Union when that would NEVER have happened as the people of England would NEVER have allowed it, and would even have gone so far as electing a UKIP government to prevent such an outcome should the westminister party leaders betray their pledges of NO currency sharing union with an Independent Scotland.

Source and comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47396.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Nadeem_Walayat
18 Sep 14, 23:17
Yougov covers its backside with 54% NO ,

Yougov plays catch up by announcing just after 10pm that the NO's will win with 54% against 46% Yes based on polling 1828 people who voted today, as well as 800 who had already cast their votes by post.

All had been previously polled, and the forecast was based on the change in their vote cast that showed a small shift from YES to NO.

However yougov polls of the past month have been a pile of dog pooh as the race was NEVER as tight as the likes of yougov painted.

OPINION POLLING IS NOWHERE NEAR AS ACCURATE AS PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

In future perhaps yougov should just poll me :)

NW


SallyAnn
19 Sep 14, 00:18
Yes Winning

I think you may be proven wrong on this one Nadeem, the YES vote according to many counting rooms have taken an early lead and will soon be declaring for the YES side.

SallyAnn


biju.joseph
19 Sep 14, 01:04
kudos to you Mr. Walayat

Mr. Walayat,

you have been 100% right about Scotland referendum. I have been following your articles on this for sometime and you had a passionate interest in a "NO" outcome. Good for you.

You have been excellent in your forecast about the about the referendum, and you will be right about the UK pound also. Bravo !!!! (clap. clap. clap and a bow). you the best.


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Sep 14, 04:04
4am NO 54%, Yes 46%

Its 4am and the results are working towards my forecast

Current state of the votes is NO 54.1%, YES 45.9%

Therefore it is highly probable that the final result in about 2 hours time will be NO 55% and YES 45%

As expected the British Pound is starting to soar, currently £/$1.65


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Sep 14, 05:03
5am Sky News forecasts No Win

With most of the votes counted NO lead on 54.28% against Yes on 45.72%.

Sky news has been one of the many mainstream press outlets painting an errorenous picture of a neck and neck race when the truth was of a 10% GAP!

Journalists think they know everything when they know NOTHING which is why they miss whole bull and bear markets !

Best

NW


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Sep 14, 06:10
6.10am Scotland NO WIN Official !

NO have breached the 1.8 million votes needed to win the Scottish referrandum.

The current tally is

NO 55.38% - 1.914m

YES 44.62% - 1.539m


R.E.B
19 Sep 14, 14:44
Good call

I never thought a yes vote was really on but I confess didn't really have a figure in mind. Looks like you had it sized up. I suppose this paves the way now for the inflation fuelled boom you have talked about up to the next election. House prices still rising, homebuilders posting big profit increases, and I got another leaflet through my door last week from an estate agent claiming they "urgently require" properties in my area! What about when it all goes pop though?


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Sep 14, 15:40
When it goes POP!

Then we'll make money on the way down as we did in 2008 :)

Best

NW


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Sep 14, 19:44
Scotland WIn Would have Been Catastrophic

I Said what i would have done if Scotland had won, I would have sold all of my properties and set myself up ready to leave at short notice because I understood the probable disaster that would follow as nations tore themselves apart.

We have to see what lies ahead becuase the UK has been damaged and now it remains to be seen how it is repaired.

Best

NW


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules