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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Scotland Independence Result NO Win 55% to Yes on 45%

ElectionOracle / Scotland Sep 18, 2014 - 08:25 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The Scotland independence referendum polls close in just over 1 hours time (10pm) with record turnout of at least 85% expected. Following which the count begins that could take a further 8 hours before the mainstream media starts declaring its results by between 5am and 6am Friday morning.


However, as my series of articles of the past year have demonstrated the reasons why the majority of Scots will vote NO ,who have been increasingly bullied by ever more aggressive YES campaigners into silence during September, the probability for a NO vote has remained at a constant 70% despite what I deem to be erroneous opinion polls of the past few weeks painting a picture of a near 50/50 too close to call outcome. Instead as my most recent article of a early this morning concluded:

Scottish Independence Referendum Result NO 55%, YES 45% - Vote Forecast

Therefore the most probable outcome is inline with the polling ranges of before the YES campaigns intimidation and fear phase began to play a prominent role in the frenzy of campaigning of September that rather than a 50/50 tight race is more probably going to result in at least a 55% NO vote victory, and I would not be surprised if the NO vote even breaks above 60%!

As expected the financial markets have reacted positively on polling day ahead of the result with stocks, bonds and the British Pound rallying strongly to currently stands at £/$1.636, up from the recent low of £/$1.603. Expect further sterling strength throughout the night as the strength of the NO vote becomes apparent.

My expectations are for a further acceleration following a NO vote, for the British Pound to recoup ALL of the recent decline from £/$1.72 and then continue onwards towards my long standing target of £/$1.80 before year end.

For more facts on why Scotland voted NO so as to maintain their English subsidy of £1730 per head of population see my recent articles and videos as opposed to SNP delusional propaganda such as that Scotland would share the British Pound in a Union when that would NEVER have happened as the people of England would NEVER have allowed it, and would even have gone so far as electing a UKIP government to prevent such an outcome should the westminister party leaders betray their pledges of NO currency sharing union with an Independent Scotland.

Source and comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article47396.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2014 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Nadeem_Walayat
18 Sep 14, 23:17
Yougov covers its backside with 54% NO ,

Yougov plays catch up by announcing just after 10pm that the NO's will win with 54% against 46% Yes based on polling 1828 people who voted today, as well as 800 who had already cast their votes by post.

All had been previously polled, and the forecast was based on the change in their vote cast that showed a small shift from YES to NO.

However yougov polls of the past month have been a pile of dog pooh as the race was NEVER as tight as the likes of yougov painted.

OPINION POLLING IS NOWHERE NEAR AS ACCURATE AS PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

In future perhaps yougov should just poll me :)

NW


SallyAnn
19 Sep 14, 00:18
Yes Winning

I think you may be proven wrong on this one Nadeem, the YES vote according to many counting rooms have taken an early lead and will soon be declaring for the YES side.

SallyAnn


biju.joseph
19 Sep 14, 01:04
kudos to you Mr. Walayat

Mr. Walayat,

you have been 100% right about Scotland referendum. I have been following your articles on this for sometime and you had a passionate interest in a "NO" outcome. Good for you.

You have been excellent in your forecast about the about the referendum, and you will be right about the UK pound also. Bravo !!!! (clap. clap. clap and a bow). you the best.


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Sep 14, 04:04
4am NO 54%, Yes 46%

Its 4am and the results are working towards my forecast

Current state of the votes is NO 54.1%, YES 45.9%

Therefore it is highly probable that the final result in about 2 hours time will be NO 55% and YES 45%

As expected the British Pound is starting to soar, currently £/$1.65


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Sep 14, 05:03
5am Sky News forecasts No Win

With most of the votes counted NO lead on 54.28% against Yes on 45.72%.

Sky news has been one of the many mainstream press outlets painting an errorenous picture of a neck and neck race when the truth was of a 10% GAP!

Journalists think they know everything when they know NOTHING which is why they miss whole bull and bear markets !

Best

NW


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Sep 14, 06:10
6.10am Scotland NO WIN Official !

NO have breached the 1.8 million votes needed to win the Scottish referrandum.

The current tally is

NO 55.38% - 1.914m

YES 44.62% - 1.539m


R.E.B
19 Sep 14, 14:44
Good call

I never thought a yes vote was really on but I confess didn't really have a figure in mind. Looks like you had it sized up. I suppose this paves the way now for the inflation fuelled boom you have talked about up to the next election. House prices still rising, homebuilders posting big profit increases, and I got another leaflet through my door last week from an estate agent claiming they "urgently require" properties in my area! What about when it all goes pop though?


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Sep 14, 15:40
When it goes POP!

Then we'll make money on the way down as we did in 2008 :)

Best

NW


Nadeem_Walayat
19 Sep 14, 19:44
Scotland WIn Would have Been Catastrophic

I Said what i would have done if Scotland had won, I would have sold all of my properties and set myself up ready to leave at short notice because I understood the probable disaster that would follow as nations tore themselves apart.

We have to see what lies ahead becuase the UK has been damaged and now it remains to be seen how it is repaired.

Best

NW


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