Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2014 - Stocks Bull Market Raged On!Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014 Jan 04, 2015 - 10:46 PM GMT
The stocks bull market raged on for another year to close at Dow 17,823 near the markets all time high set just a few days earlier at 18,103, this despite widespread calls of bear markets and even crashes that coalesced around a series of bad news events such as surrounding the US debt ceiling triggering a government shutdown and not forgetting Octobers end of QE apocalypse, with such doom calls always reaching their most vocal just at the end of every correction.
In fact I could literally just cut and paste what I wrote a year ago about 2013 which illustrates 2014 was a trend continuation year, as is the case for most years as trend continuation is far more probable than trend reversals.
The stock market surged higher into the end of 2013 to close well above Dow 16,000 at 16,576, a whopping gain of 26.5% for the year! This for a year that contained widespread repeated calls of not only why the stock market could NOT rise during 2013 but also that a stock market crash was always imminent, just as had been for virtually the whole of 2012. But don't worry, there will be plenty more cliff-hanger events during 2014 to illicit even more intense perma bear mantra such as the return of the U.S. debt ceiling crisis.
Top 10 Most Popular Articles of 20141. UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015
30 Dec 2013 By Nadeem Walayat - Reads 70,806
Introduction: This analysis is part 2 of 2 that seeks to conclude in a detailed trend forecast for UK house prices that extends my existing forecast into Mid 2014 to the end of 2018, thus a 5 year forecast for UK house prices 2014-2018. This analysis is focused on the impact of the Inflation mega-trend on the prospects for UK house prices that concludes in a detailed trend forecast and its implications for outcome of the next general election.
Part 1 can be accessed here: UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, The Debt Fuelled Election Boom
Real UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
The latest inflation data shows CPI falling to 2.1% for November 2013 (RPI 2.6%, Real inflation 3.6%) which was received as good news as inflation was finally starting to home in on the Bank of England's 2% CPI target rate. This prompted the usual mantra amongst the academics of the risks of dis-inflation and in some cases even deflation which were coupled with benign inflation forecasts by government institutions such as the Bank of England and the OBR that repeated their forecast that UK inflation would resolve to 2% in 2years time that is always the case and I mean ALWAYS, for more than a decade now the Bank of England has been spouting the same mantra aimed at keeping the wage slaves sedated as the actual inflation graph below illustrates that in reality there is an over 90% probability for UK Inflation being significantly above 2% in 2 years time.
If you have been reading my inflation mega-trend series of articles this year, then you would know that I would not be surprised if UK inflation reaches as high as 7% in 2 years time! Which is well beyond anything in the collective consciousness of what passes for economic analysis from within ivory towers such as the OBR and a litany of economic Thick Tanks.
28 Jan 2014 By Steve_St_Angelo - Reads 63,762
Citizens of the U.S. and the world are heading into a future that few have prepared for. It will also turn out to be much worse than most realize as it will be unlike anything we have witnessed in the past.
Part of the reason we are in such a bad fix has to do with the compartmentalization and specialization of our modern educational and economic system. There are many intelligent people in the market doing smart things; however, they often have no clue on what the hell is going on in other industries or professions.
For example, there are many precious metals analysts for whom I have much respect, but who fail to understand the energy industry. Now, I imagine there are a few analysts in the precious metals Biz who do understand the ramifications of Peak Oil, but it may be more rewarding for them (financially) to keep their traps shut.
And then we have individuals who specialize in "Technical Analysis." Many who have read my posts and articles realize that I believe that technical analysis is worthless in a rigged market. I also believe the big price moves in the gold and silver are more fundamental in nature than technical.
I explained this in detail in several recent articles by comparing the price movement of oil to that of gold and silver. I have republished two charts below that show how the price of gold and silver moved in parallel with the price of oil in the 1971-1980 time period:
19 Mar 2014 by Nadeem Walayat - Reads 62777
Current Best Cash ISA's for Least Stealth Inflation Theft
So whilst Britians' savers continue to face what amounts to a zero interest rate catastrophe as the Bank of England continues to get away with government debt monetization and support of the bankrupt banks (Co-op the current bank teetering on the brink of collapse) via unlimited funding scheme that is now approaching its 2nd full year of the collapse in savings interest rates that began in May 2012 and soon accelerated into sub inflation rates of systemic theft as illustrated by the table below which shows the cash ISA rates offered by apparently the often reported as best buy accounts of the Halifax mega-bank that in reality crashed in response to the Bank of England's Funding for Lending Scheme that started in July 2012, still a cash ISA does allow savers to avoid the double taxation theft i.e. savers are taxed on their earnings and then AGAIN on their interest earned on savings.
03 Jan 2014 Michael A. Robinson - Reads 61,755
Imagine an “alternate reality” where it is possible to balance a Mack Bulldog tractor trailer on the sharpened tip of your No. 2 yellow pencil.
And imagine, also, that the tip of that same pencil is worth a small fortune.
This “reality” that I’m sketching out for you isn’t something that I grabbed from the plot of one of those cheesy Sci-Fi Channel late-night movies.
In fact, this reality actually isn’t one that I’d refer to as “alternate.”
It’s a reality – a certainty, in fact – that I’ve been studying, talking and writing about for a long time.
The time has finally come for us to make some money from this opportunity – a lot of money, in fact.
And today I’m going to show you how …
It’s a Miracle
17 Jan 2014 By Ty_Andros - Reads 53,800
Looking for an accident/black swan
As we begin 2014, it is important to recognize the levels of INSANITY currently existent in the world enabling us to understand the apocryphal nature of the times we live in and prepare ourselves to meet the challenges it represents. The world is leveraged to an extent that has never before seen in history! Debt now masquerades as NOMINAL growth and REAL growth has ceased. Headline economic reports are now nothing more than POLITICALLY CORRECT HOAXES to FOOL the public at large and mask the betrayal of the public by the leaders who hold the reins of power. ECONOMIC Stagnation emerged after the 2008 Global financial crisis and in real terms has NEVER ENDED!
The greatest economic, political and societal collapse in recorded history is unfolding and has been doing so ever since the final denouement of partially sound money occurred at Bretton Woods II in August 1971 – thereby allowing governments, the financial systems and elites to substitute money printed out of thin air and politically correct/corrupt legislation for sound economic policies. This process has been unfolding for 40 years and is nearing its demise.
6. Gerald Celente Finally Gives a Date for U.S. Economic Collapse
03 May 2014 By Nadeem Walayat - Reads 47,804
Gerald Celente, a popular gloom and doom blogger and publisher of the TR Journal finally gives a date for the always coming economic collapse that I must have been hearing about for 5 years now.
WLW Radio - 30th April 2014
"Your predicting an economic collapse, when do you think that is going to happen Gerald?"
"I am going to say by the end of the second quarter." - Gerald Celente
02 Mar 2014 By Nadeem Walayat - Reads 48,506
The Bitcoin USD price has recovered strongly by more than doubling from the crash low of $240 of 16th February in the wake of the collapse of the worlds largest Bitcoin exchange MTGox (Magic the Gathering) that declared bankruptcy a couple of days ago, though the current Bitcoin market price of $560 is still half the $1250 high of less than 3 months ago.
Off course the price for the approx 800,000 bitcoins deposited at MtGox is not $560, instead the last price MTGox stated before the site went blank was $135 and more than likely near zero today, which highlights the real dangers of holding the bitcoin virtual crypto currency in that the only safe way to hold the virtual currency is OFFLINE which defeats the whole point of having a virtual currency.
02 Mar 2014 By David Petch - Reads 47,557
The S&P 500 Index is most likely to be in a topping pattern with an upside bias that lasts for at least another 18 months. This provocative thought is based upon the collective technical analysis of the S&P charts at different time frames (Daily, weekly and monthly), alongside the Elliott Wave count. There has been a comparison to 1987 and more recently, 1929 analog charts that suggest a very sharp decline in the broad stock market indices.
The chances of such a sharp decline occurring before 18 months (end of June 2015) is slim and more probable to occur at some point in September 2015. This time frame is based upon Elliott Wave analysis time considerations between wave structures from inter-market analysis. One of the main reasons that I examine gold, US Dollar, 3 currencies, oil, natural gas, AMEX Gold BUGS Index, AMEX Oil Index, S&P 500 Index, 10 Year US Treasury Index, Toronto Stock Exchange, Euro 350 iShares, Nikkei along with various exchange traded funds is to try and view the total picture of the landscape to see how everything is inter-related.
12 Oct 2014 By Nadeem Walayat - Reads 41,504
The stock market has had an nightmare roller coaster ride during the past 2 weeks that this week saw one of the best days of the year for the Dow (Wednesday +275) immediately followed by the worst day of the year (-335) the effect of which is to literally grind the strength out of the stocks bull market rally of 2014 with stomach churning moves that have been encouraging the perma-bears to literally scream at the top of their lungs that this time, THIS TIME the bull market really is over! Which has been regurgitated at length by the mainstream media and BlogosFear backed by supporting reasons coalescing around expectations that the U.S. Fed is to bring QE to an end this month and signal that interest rate hikes are just around the corner, all of this despite the FACT that stocks actually do quite nicely during the early years of a RATE hiking cycles! In fact its rate CUTS that stocks bulls need to worry about for they signal WEAKNESS ahead. Then there’s China weakness, Europe recession, ISIS and not forgetting EBOLA! So plenty of doom for the bears to play pick and mix with for reasons why End Time is here!
In the real world my automatic response to people asking me about what’s happening to the stock market is "It's October, this is what always happens in October before we get the Santa rally ".
So I approach this analysis from calm measured matter of fact point of view of being in an October correction, no doom panic here, well apart from Ebola consequences! Basically I just want to arrive at what is actually the most probable outcome so that I can both protect my wealth and make some money, which is to test my hypothesis for the duration of the past 5.5 years of this stocks bull market that CONSISTENTLY in over 300 articles and several ebook’s that there has been NO sign that the stocks bull market's end has ever been imminent since its birth in March 2009 (), and therefore all that has been necessary thus far has been a very simple strategy that most I inform cannot get their heads around for they want something infinitely more complex, and that is one of BUYING the deviation from the high.
" The Greater the deviation from the stock market high then the Greater the Buying Opportunity Presented".
7th Sept 2014 By Nadeem Walayat - Reads 37,627
There is PANIC in the air as the NO Campaigns 20% opinion poll lead at the start of 2014 has now completely evaporated as the YES campaign edges into the lead with just 12 days to go, with the latest opinion poll that for the first time putting the YES vote on 51%, against 49% NO (YouGov for the Sunday Times) will likely prompt a mini panic on Monday morning as the forex and financial markets further discount the increasing risks of a YES Vote that will likely prompt UK politicians to further bend over backwards to accommodate Scotland costing UK tax payers many more billions per year.
Whether the 300 year old United Kingdom lives or dies will be determined by as few as 4.5% of the British electorate on September 18th as only the people of Scotland, some 9% of the UK electorate have been afforded the luxury of deciding what happens to the United Island of Great Britain, and that if the tunnel visional nationalist have their way they would succeed in setting in motion its termination starting the morning of 19th of September when the world that Brit's have know for centuries starts to unravel.
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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