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5 "Tells" that the Stock Markets Are About to Reverse

Financial Markets Analysis - Fed Adopts Quantitative Inflation

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009 Mar 21, 2009 - 04:04 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe big story of the week was the U.S. Fed's head long fling over the cliff into Quantitative Easing by printing more than $1 trillion (electronically) , this is on top of the $800 billion already printed on the sly as the Fed buys toxic junk such as the weeks announcement of buying $1.25 trillion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage backed securities, as well as other junk bonds, on top of $300 billion of US Government bonds to help finance the ever growing budget deficit. The implications of this extra supply of dollars is inflationary that devalues the value of all dollars. I have already warned indepth of the consequences of Quantitative Inflation so won't repeat it here.


Meanwhile the stealth bull markets spike higher left many analysts scrambling to cover their backs early week with analysis that typically suggested both that the Low 'could be in' and then again it 'could not be in'. Though the sell off late week again started to see a reversion towards the bearish mean.

Robert Pretcher made an in depth video and chart presentation freely available that illustrated his own views on the financial crisis and the prospects for the stocks and the housing markets in terms of a imminent bottom or not.

In the UK the mainstream press still continued to run with a ridiculous house price forecast for ANOTHER 55% drop on top of the 21% to date, my earlier analysis explained why this is extremely improbable. Though there was some further long-term bad news for the housing market as the FSA sought to regulate UK house prices.

Tomorrows analysis / newsletter will seek to update indepth either the trend for Gold or the US Dollar following the Feds decision to print (electronic) money that saw Gold and Commodities leap whilst the Dollar slumped which saw the hibernating dollar collapse proponents re-emerge in force to spell out the dollars imminent collapse, though the actual dollar trend so far is inline with my forecast / road map as of 20th Jan 2009 -

US Dollar Bull Market 2009 Update 4 - US Dollar to trade sideways with an upward bias for at least the first half of 2009, as the graph illustrates.

Gold Price Forecast 2009 - The picture being painted by the above analysis is that of gold strength going into March that looks set to see gold break above resistance of $936, to target $960, however this strength will soon evaporate with gold again targeting a decline back below the breakout point to trade back below $850 by mid 2009.

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

1. Stealth Bull Market Follows Stocks Bear Market Bottom at Dow 6,470

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As stated in last weekends analysis and newsletter , following the Dow's Friday close at 6626 that the Dow Jones Index had now fulfilled its bear market target of 6,600 as per the analysis of 20th Jan 2009 and illustrated by the chart below. The primary focus hence forth was to "position for a bullish spike higher" that would CONFIRM the bear market low, and negate the secondary far less probable overshoot target of 5,700 to 6000.

Read Article

2. Financial Crisis Worst is Yet to Come, Market Forecasts Into 2015

By: Lorimer_Wilson

Most investors don't take seriously warnings about the future of the economy and the financial marketplace, but those who did avoided the dreaded "Cs" of finance: the Credit Crisis and Crash of '08. What warnings are we talking about you might ask? Well, it was the headlines of several years ago screaming that a 'Category 6 Fiscal Storm'

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3. United States Economic Collapse Facing Its Weimar Moment

By: Robert Freeman

In early 1919, Germany put in place a new government to begin rebuilding the country after its crushing defeat in World War I. But the right-wing forces that had led the country into the War and lost the War conspired even before it was over to destroy the new government, the "Weimar Republic." They succeeded.

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INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

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Here are the newest authors: Jack Schwager, John Murphy, Jake Bernstein, and Ron Ianieri. All experts, all well recognized, and highly trafficked by our current members. http://tv.ino.com/

 

4. The Federal Reserve is Bankrupt

By: Matthias Chang

The Federal Reserve is bankrupt for all intents and purposes. The same goes for the Bank of England! This article will focus largely on the Fed, because the Fed is the "financial land-mine".

Read Article

5. Long-Term Economic Forecast: Slow Growth And Deflation

By: Gary Shilling

This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing.

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6. Gold Buying Opportunity Of A Lifetime

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Opportunity and crisis are uneasy handmaidens in times of danger; and, while crises may increase, opportunities are always rare.

The world is in the grip of an unprecedented crisis. Unlimited credit has now turned into its deadly nemesis, unlimited defaulting debt; and whereas only some of us were its beneficiaries, all of us will be its victims—all of us, except the very few.

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7. California's Imploding Economy as Billions Disappear into the Budget Black hole

By: Mike_Shedlock

California is imploding faster than expected. Let's take a look starting with a flashback to something I wrote on February 16, 2009: California One Vote Shy On Budget Impasse . Here is the key snip.

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8. Trading the Stocks Bear Market Wave 4 Rally

By: Joseph_Russo

SCREW YOU MADOFF - Forget 12% a YEAR … How much is 30% per MONTH worth to you? - Casting aside 46% in open profits on our primary core positions with assurance contingency securing of a minimum 2009 return on the S&P 500 of 25%, what if we told you that on top of this, our Level-Three ancillary trading operations just booked another 30% return in the 9-February 13-March timeframe? Sounds too good to be true doesn't it.

Read Article

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

INO TV - Watch From Your Computer for FREE

Here are the newest authors: Jack Schwager, John Murphy, Jake Bernstein, and Ron Ianieri. All experts, all well recognized, and highly trafficked by our current members. http://tv.ino.com/

 

9. Gold and U.S. Dollar Trends Set to Diverge

By: Merv_Burak

Both the US $ and the price of gold have been in a rally mode for the past few months. Both are now taking a rest. However, the big difference is that the momentum for gold is still quite positive while that for the US $ is most definitely weakening. Something's gotta give and my money is on the US $ continuing to slide from here and gold to turn around back to the up side.

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10. Japan's Economic Depression Deepens, Protectionism Could Trigger Global Depression

By: John_Mauldin

This week we look at the Land of the Rising Sun. Japan is going through major upheavals, and they will have consequences all over the world. And what are those wild and crazy Swiss central bankers up to? It's time for another round of competitive devaluation. And of course I have to look at the recent Barron's cover story, about how stocks are cheap. There's a lot to cover.

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By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-09 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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