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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 06, 2013

Forget About The Fed Dialing Back QE3 – U.S. Buy Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

The economic recovery has been progressing so well that it had become almost a sure thing the Fed will begin phasing out its easy money policy and QE stimulus programs much earlier than planned, possibly beginning as early as this summer.

Even the Fed seems to be preparing markets for that probability with its recent statements, and speeches by individual Fed governors.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 05, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

As I scanned my charts I thought I’d got a little off the beaten track to highlight something that is deeply affecting us. That is Treasury yields.

The reason I said this is because Treasury yields may have made their Master Cycle low today, or may do so in the next few trading days. The Cycles Model captures this event by showing that yields may have been stopped at the mid-Cycle support line at 17.53. There may be a challenge or a probe lower, but the uptrend line is just beneath it, so we will know very soon whether it is successful in turning Yields back up or not. If so, the uptrend in yields is preserved.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 09, 2013

The Coming Ponzi U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Casey_Research

It is my contention that the 70-year debt supercycle has come to an end.

To put the current financial situation in perspective, here's a long-term history of the debt-to-GDP ratio, which reached a record high at the beginning of the current crisis. It was a dramatic change in 2009, unlike anything since the aftermath of the Great Depression.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 02, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bond Market's Last Bull Run / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Investment_U

Steve McDonald writes: When the Italians couldn’t agree on one candidate, and the U.S. faced it’s so called sequester, it may have been the last shot of life support for the bond market, for a long time.

This is very likely the last hurrah for the 30-year bond bull market. It may also be the last chance for the multitudes that have been plowing money into bond funds to take profits and save their retirements.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 28, 2013

US Treasury Bonds The Biggest Bubble In History About to Pop / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jeff_Berwick

The US Treasury Bond market is the longest unbroken bull market known to the financial world. For more than 30 years it has trended higher in nominal US dollar terms.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 25, 2013

How the Fed Will Crash the U.S. Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Submissions

Richard Moyer writes: When you or I buy bonds, we pay a certain amount of money to buy someone elses debt. In return, they pay us a certain amount of interest for a fixed period of time.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 15, 2013

What About U.S. Bond Market? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Robert_M_Williams

All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. - Arthur Schopenhauer (1788 - 1860)

Interest rates are an integral part of our life since most of us have mortgages, car loans, credit cards, and even student loans. Interest rates are the new plague and they are everywhere. The media continues to remind us that the US Federal Reserve, acting in our best interest, will remain accommodative for many months to come. That means keeping rates at or near zero and the presses rolling. This will supposedly grease the wheels of the economy and facilitate the recovery we’re hearing so much about. Inversely the media never mentions the fact that it’s the market that sets rates, and that very same market has been raising rates for months.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Bond Market Bubble Expectations / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: BATR

Bonds are loans that have the expectation of payback with interest. Government bonds are viewed as the safest financial instrument since the primary fiscal obligation of the state is to honor the terms of their own notes. However, in the fevered climate of currency wars among central banksters, the security factor of capital repayment is rapidly coming into question. As interest rates rise, the economic value of the bond diminishes. This inverted normal relationship is the essential dynamic of lending money with the purchase of Treasury Bonds. So what is all the talk about a bond bubble and likelihood that it will destroy your underwriting capital?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

General Public Doesn't Quite Understand Bond Market Risks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs President and COO Gary Cohn spoke with Bloomberg Television's Stephanie Ruhle on "Market Makers" from Cleveland, OH today, one of the cities where Goldman provides education and funding for small business owners.

Cohn said that, "there is really only one way that interest rates can go over some period of time which is ultimately higher. I'm concerned that the general public does not quite understand the pricing of bonds and interest rates and the inverse correlation between the two."

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 11, 2013

U.S. Bond Markets Major Top, Yields Poised tor Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Our long term outlook for interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities has been a contrary opinion for many years. Most commentators have been expecting either economic expansion or Fed-induced inflation to push bond yields higher. Conqier tje Crash predicted that long term rates on AAA-rated bonds would fall much further as the monetary environment shifted form lessening inflation to outright deflation.

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Politics

Saturday, February 09, 2013

U.S. Government Suing S&P Ratings Agency is Messing with U.S. Bond Market Bull / Politics / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

With the announcement this week of its massive $5 billion lawsuit against ratings agency Standard & Poor's, the Federal Government took a bold step to squelch any remaining independence of thought or action in the financial services industry. Given the circumstances and timing of the suit, can there be any doubt that S&P is paying the price for the August 2011 removal of its AAA rating on U.S. Treasury debt? In retaliation for the unpardonable sin of questioning the U.S. Treasury's credit worthiness, the Obama Administration is sending a loud and clear message to Wall Street: mess with the bull and get the horns. Shockingly, the blatant selectivity of the prosecution, however, has failed to ignite a backlash. But as the move violates both the spirit of the Constitution and the letter of the law in so many ways, I can't help but look at it as a sea change in the nature of our governance. Call it Lincoln with a heavy dose of Putin.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Major Bond Markets Top, Bond Yields Poised to Start Rising / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Our long term outlook for interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities has been a contrary opinion for many years. Most commentators have been expecting either economic expansion or Fed-induced inflation to push bond yields higher. Conqier tje Crash predicted that long term rates on AAA-rated bonds would fall much further as the monetary environment shifted form lessening inflation to outright deflation.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Why Are Yields on U.S. Treasuries Rising All of a Sudden? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: Could U.S. debt be reaching a breaking point?

In the chart below of the U.S. 10-year Treasury, it looks like yields on U.S. bonds have bottomed out and are rising again.

As the chart below shows, in June of 2012, the U.S. 10-year Treasury note traded close to $135.00. Now 10-year Treasury prices have broken below $131.00—a decline of almost three percent.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 18, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast 2013, The "Bloated" Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gordon_T_Long

The Fiscal Cliff theater was great 'off Broadway' drama, but the real show for traders took center stage Sunday December 16th in Japan. The curtain went up for the newly elected Prime Minister of Japan as the star actor in the unfolding global fiat currency drama.

Japan’s incoming leader Shinzo Abe's opening line was to vow to ram through full-blown reflation policies to pull his country out of slump and drive down the yen, warning Japan's central bank not to defy the will of the people. The profound shift in economic strategy by the world’s top creditor nation with a quadrillion Yen debt,  could prove powerful for the global economy as a new variant of the "carry trade" seen earlier this decade, but potentially on a much larger scale.  

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Bond Market Math / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

This is the year for stocks. So one would gather from the media. The Wall Street Journal offered a lukewarm endorsement on Monday, January 15, 2012, with the headline: "Investors Flock to Stocks - So Far."

The diffident prediction opens: "As 2013 gets underway, one of the biggest questions in financial markets is again bubbling: Will this be the year that investors dump bonds and return to stocks?" The question may have surprised some readers. The S&P 500 has risen 120%, or, at a 21 percent-a-year pace since March 2009. How did stock prices more than double since investors have dumped stocks and bought bonds? A second question: what might we expect of stock market returns if investors stop taking money out of the market and put it in - 40% a year?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

The Fiscal Cliff Deal Just Made U.S. Bonds Even More Risky in 2013 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: It was shaping up to be another be another strong year for U.S. Treasury Bonds right up until the moment it looked like a fiscal cliff deal would be reached.

Since then, 10-year notes yields have been on the rise jumping by as much as 23 basis points since New Year’s Eve. Now you have to wonder whether or not the bond bubble has suddenly sprung a leak.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, January 05, 2013

Over Due U.S. Treasury Bond Sell-off To Become More Serious! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

With my indicators on a sell signal for bonds since August 16, I have been warning about bonds being overbought and in danger of rolling over into a serious correction for several months. And indeed, the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond has already lost 11% of its value just since its late July peak.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 04, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bonds, The Worst Investment for 2013 and the Next Decade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: One of the biggest investor mistakes by the average retail investor is to be late to cash in on an investment theme. These investor mistakes are not limited to just the stock market, but all types of investments. If we look at investor mistakes by the retail public for buying real estate, most people were bullish at the top of the market and were selling, or were forced to sell, their real estate at the bottom. Buying high and selling low is one of the most common investor mistakes by the majority of the public.

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Politics

Friday, January 04, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bond Market's Last Pillar Crumbles / Politics / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

With the return of Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party to power in Japan, the market for US Treasuries may be losing its last external pillar of support. Re-elected on September 26th, Abe has quickly set a course for limitless inflation, saying Japan must "free itself from deflation and the strong yen." This is significant to the global economy as Japan is the largest foreign power left with a strong appetite for US Treasuries. If this demand falters, the Fed may be the only remaining buyer of new Treasury issuance.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 29, 2012

What Happens When the Bond Markets Turn Against the US? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The US Fed is committed to keeping interest rates low for the simple fact that if interest rates were to rise then the payments on the debt would send the US into an EU-syle debt crisis along with the commensurate intense austerity measures being implemented.

Unfortunately for the Fed, the bond markets may indeed force this in spite of the Fed’s efforts.

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