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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 26, 2012

US Treasury Bonds False Safe Haven, GOLD is the True Sanctuary / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs preface, consider that the USTreasury 10-year yield went below 1.4% this week. Some unenlightened celebrate the asset appreciation and point to a successful asset in performance in an otherwise dismal financial market. The Jackass said in the June 6th public article "USTBonds: Black Hole Dynamics" that such a success is a marquee billboard message of economic meltdown and systemic failure. As the rally continues, possibly the onliest rally outside of corn and soybeans in yet another disaster, people should focus on whether the systemic collapse will occur before the 10-yield hits 1.0% in my warning. Focus on four major points:

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Reach New Low / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Donald_W_Dony

US bond yields have been in a secular decline for over 20 years. The recent movement out of risk and growth assets and into the safety of fixed income has pushed the yield on 30-year US Treasuries down to a new low- 2.53%.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bonds Bear Market Underway? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Caldaro

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe believe the multi-decade Bond bull market is coming to an end. We have been tracking the typical choppy action in long, and short, term rates for a number of years now. While many turned bearish on Bonds in 2010 and 2011, we remained bullish for two specific reasons. First, the 30 year Bond rate had not made a new bear market low. Second, the declining phase of the 68 year Bond cycle had not displayed any signs of bottoming. Recently this has changed.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of U.S. Treasury 30 Year Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: WavePatternTraders

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHaving finally reached a long standing target of 148-150 (the call was made back when the media and many commentators were proclaiming the US bond market was dead near 135 this year).

Bonds have come roaring back to burn the bears for the umpteenth time over the past 3 or so years.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2012

U.S. Bond Market, The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated on Mankind / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rob_Kirby

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA few years ago, when J.P. Morgan grew their derivatives book by 12 Trillion in one quarter [Q3/07] – I did some back of the napkin math – and figured out how many 5 and 10 year bonds the Morgue would have necessarily had to transact on their swaps alone – if they are hedged.  The bonds required to hedge the growth in Morgan’s Swap book were 1.4 billion more in one day than what was mathematically available to the entire domestic bond market for a whole quarter?

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 10, 2012

The Bond Market Boom / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

Upon turning to this page, the speaker noted the 5-year returns show "an absolute flooding of the market and system with capital by central banks [QE, ESFS, LTRO...]. This has been an incredibly distortionary period." (The quotation is from notes, so is not exact.)

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 07, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Markets Black Hole Dynamics / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMan-made financial phenomena imitate nature, but more importantly they are subject to the powerful laws of economic nature. The Wall Street financial engineers have built vast structures, which tragically are crumbling and soon will fall to the ground. Vast illusory wealth will be lost, never truly garnered. The fiat currency system has required tremendous efforts not only to build the financial skyscrapers ever higher each year, but also to provide support structures that prevent their topple. With the aid of the subservient press, an illusion of wealth, prosperity, and stability has been fashioned and defended. It is all being blown away by the powerful storms known as the global financial crisis. The term has even earned an acronym for the popular lexicon GFC. My alternative view is that the global monetary war is in full swing, World War III with the USDollar at the epicenter of the conflict and pecuniary violence. A few years ago in June 2005, the Jackass penned an obscure article entitled "Financial Market Physics" just for amusement. Thanks to Vronsky and his intrepid work, the Gold-Eagle archive still lives (for old article CLICK HERE). In it was described momentum, pendulums, traction, leverage, resistance, support, inertia, coiled springs, meltdowns, high versus low pressure differentials, flow dynamics, imbalances, and the infamous black hole. The final concept is of extreme relevance today.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 05, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year Yield Could Drop to 1% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: In the wake of Friday's disastrous jobs number, 10-year Treasury Note yields finally fell through the 1.5% level, trading as low 1.44% on the day.

That plunge took many traders, talking heads and politicians by surprise.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 02, 2012

Did Interest Swaps Drive Down U.S. Treasury Bond Yields - Beware! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJim Willie alias The Jackass has a theory interest rate swaps created speculative demand for U.S. Treasuries and that drove yields down…in other words there is a bubble.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34819.html

If there is a bubble it will bust eventually; The Jackass says that could be catastrophic because the notional value is so huge. 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 24, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Teetering Tower Of Babel, Fed Stuck At 0% Forever / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Biblical story is told of a tower built ever higher in order to achieve contact with the heavens, lest they be scattered upon the earth. They were scattered when the tower fell. Fast forward to today, where the earth has a multitude of tribes, languages, and several major alphabets. When the Lehman Brothers failure occurred, and the Fannie Mae and AIG activities were to be concealed under court orders, the land turned barren, and a financial plague befell the Western nations led by the United States. They were after all, the keepers of the ark (printing press for USDollars). But a plague of debt locusts was cast upon the US nation, with annual $1.5 trillion deficits. The Americans in their unending arrogance, chose to speak from the tower top and to proclaim 0% forever, suspending gravity. They have attempted to force free money to finance their USGovt debts, to preserve power, to ensure privilege, but in doing so they defy nature in testing gravity itself.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, May 13, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast for Coming Week / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Manas_Banerji

French election outcome was not much disturbing but Greece is again creating the fear due to their inconclusive result or it will be better to say that Greek voters voted against the bailouts and those austerity measures. German minister’s remark about Greece may fuel lots of calculations. Market is speculating that Greece may quit Euro but here the important thing is what the Euro zone authorities are thinking! Earlier I was confused about holding back of 1bn euros of rescue money but as situation is developing, now it is quite understandable. 

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, May 12, 2012

Whe Are U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Going? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the US Treasury curve sits near all-time highs the question on every investors mind is what happens next. Can Treasury yields move lower? In real terms when adjusted for inflation yields are negative. In other words you are losing money on an inflation adjusted basis to lend your money to the US Government.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, May 05, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast for Coming Week / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Manas_Banerji

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSome sections of the market were looking for further stimulus by ECB or an assurance from Draghi. I think that type of assurance would act as a boost for market. But here Draghi has different approach, as he thinks that liquidity is abundant in the Euro zone. This time Draghi emphasized more on Growth, as I said in my past reviews that I am not sure how growth will come with lots of austerity measures and cuts!  ECB hold its interest rate, which was already discounted.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 03, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bonds are on the Move / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

In the aftermath of the very disappointing ADP Jobs Report, the S&P 500 and its ETF, the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), returned to revisit Tuesday morning's pre-spike low, which so far has contained the selling pressure. Meanwhile, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which tends to move opposite the equity indices (as equity prices decline, bond prices benefit from a flight to safety response), is climbing and appears poised to take off into a new up-leg, depending on investor reaction to Friday's jobs data.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 02, 2012

Are Junk Bonds About to Become a Victim of Their Own Popularity? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: In our current low-interest-rate environment, many investors are widening their search for more income by buying junk.

Junk bonds, that is. More formally known as high-yield bonds - junk bonds have been on a tear lately.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

What if Rip van Winkle was a Bond Vigilante? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mario_Innecco

The U.S. fiscal situation never ceases to amaze us here at forsoundmoney. With that in mind we have looked at some very interesting data and comparisons.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Where to Put Your Money When the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bubble Bursts / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: With interest rates at near-record low levels it appears that the only way for rates to go is up.

As the U.S. economy moderately strengthens, that means the bond bubble will begin to leak. Even darker, the bubble might just burst altogether.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Whither U.S. Treasury Bond Yields After Operation Twist? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Fed’s monetary policy accommodation in the form of two rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and the current Operation Twist (OT) that is underway have provided support for economic activity and helped to stabilize the financial system. Operation Twist will be completed as of June 2012. QE1 and QE2 led to higher Treasury note yields followed by a reduction in yields as the two programs were completed (see Chart 1). Operation Twist has succeeded in establishing a firm floor for rates, but on the expiration of the program as of June 2012, the future is uncertain.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 25, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond 10-Year Yield Is Heading Up Above 6% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe last time the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury dipped below 2% was in 1941; just before (not just after), the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

Perhaps then the recent 1.8% low was not just because of Euro-refugees, perhaps we are on the cusp of another Black Swan tail-risk potentially as devastating as World War II? Or perhaps there is another explanation?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Peak Imbalances Are Falling, New Bear Market in Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe topic at hand is the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, its falling price, and consequent rising yield. The ten year was trading at a 2.03% yield on March 9 and rose to 2.38% on March 19, 2012. These things happen and the ten-year may fall back to a price and yield that satisfies central bankers and Wall Street. Nevertheless, the era of artificially low government bond yields is coming to a close.

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