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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 20, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Operation Twise and QE3 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. I’ve updated the charts below through yesterday’s close. The S&P 500 is now only 1.29% off its interim high of 1,465.77 set on September 14th, the day after QE3 was announced. The interim low since then was 1,353.52, a decline of 7.66% a month later on November 15. The 10-year note closed yesterday at 1.84, which is only 4 basis points off its interim high of 1.88, also set the day after QE3 was announced. The historic closing low was 1.43 on July 25th. With what looks like a Santa Rally in stocks underway, yields have risen to levels last seen about two months ago. What will be particularly interesting is how yields (and equities) fare in the last four market days of 2012 if the various Fiscal Cliff issues are not resolved by the end of this week.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Hidden U.S. Treasury Bond Market Risks? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Axel_Merk

While Treasuries are said to have no default risk as the Federal Reserve (Fed) can always print money to pay off the debt, hidden risks might be lurking. As oxymoronic as it may sound, the biggest risk to the economy and the U.S. dollar might be, well, economic growth! Let us explain.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 09, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Yields Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. I’ve updated the charts below through today’s close. The S&P 500 is now 3.25% off its interim high of 1,465.77 set on September 14th, the day after QE3 was announced. The interim low since then was 1,353.52, a decline of 7.66% a month later on November 15. The 10-year note closed today at 1.64, which is 24 basis points off its interim high of 1.88, also set the day after QE3 was announced. The historic closing low was 1.43 on July 25th. The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey puts the 30-year fixed at 3.34 percent, three basis point above its historic low set two weeks ago.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 30, 2012

Will the U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Finally Burst in 2013 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Shah Gilani writes: The Federal Reserve's multi-year prescription of targeting super-low interest rates on federal funds, along with various quantitative easing programs, has pushed yields down on all fixed-income instruments to the benefit of issuers and the detriment of investors.

There is little doubt that the Fed's articulated and executed policies have resulted in a bond-bubble with both short and long-term consequences for investors and the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 19, 2012

Is Bernanke Losing Control? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Marty_Chenard

We all know the talk ... Bernanke has a mission to keep long term interest and mortgage rates low. And, low mortgage rates will be good for housing and the economy.

But ... is Bernanke getting into trouble relative to his ability to keep rates low?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

The Muni Bond Market Minefield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Neeraj_Chaudhary

Municipal bonds have long been viewed as a staple asset class for conservative, income-seeking investors. "Munis," as they are known, are a large, liquid market of credit-rated securities that provide tax-exempt (from Federal taxes) income to millions of American investors. Towns, school districts, and other public sector authorities across the country have issued an estimated $3.7 trillion dollars worth of these bonds. 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Bond Market Investors Set up for a Shock, Major Top in Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDuring market pullbacks, financial advisors use a boilerplate response: "Let's rebalance the portfolio." Investors have heard that one for years.

The recommended allocation varies depending on a client's age and risk tolerance, but it typically involves shifting funds from stocks to bond holdings.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Major Top Report / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBOND YIELDS ARE POISED TO BEGIN RISING ON THE WAY TO DEFLATIONARY CREDIT CRISIS

U.S Treasury Bonds Our long term outlook for interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities has been a contrary opinion for many years. Most commentators have been expecting either economic expansion or Fed-induced inflation to push bond yields higher. Conquer the Crash predicted that long term rates on AAA-rated bonds would fall much further as the monetary environment shifted from lessening inflation to outright deflation. Figure 1 shows the forecast from 2002, and Figure 2 updates the graph to the present.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 05, 2012

How to Prepare for the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Apocalypse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Investment_U

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlexander Green writes: The Wall Street Journal made an interesting observation recently, “Treasury bonds are priced for the end of the world.”

It was a news article, not an opinion piece. But it happens to be the viewpoint of virtually every investor with half a brain – or a modicum of common sense. A few months ago, for instance, the world’s best-known investor, Warren Buffett, wrote in his annual letter to shareholders, “Right now bonds should come with a warning label.”

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 26, 2012

US Treasury Bonds False Safe Haven, GOLD is the True Sanctuary / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs preface, consider that the USTreasury 10-year yield went below 1.4% this week. Some unenlightened celebrate the asset appreciation and point to a successful asset in performance in an otherwise dismal financial market. The Jackass said in the June 6th public article "USTBonds: Black Hole Dynamics" that such a success is a marquee billboard message of economic meltdown and systemic failure. As the rally continues, possibly the onliest rally outside of corn and soybeans in yet another disaster, people should focus on whether the systemic collapse will occur before the 10-yield hits 1.0% in my warning. Focus on four major points:

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Reach New Low / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Donald_W_Dony

US bond yields have been in a secular decline for over 20 years. The recent movement out of risk and growth assets and into the safety of fixed income has pushed the yield on 30-year US Treasuries down to a new low- 2.53%.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bonds Bear Market Underway? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Caldaro

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe believe the multi-decade Bond bull market is coming to an end. We have been tracking the typical choppy action in long, and short, term rates for a number of years now. While many turned bearish on Bonds in 2010 and 2011, we remained bullish for two specific reasons. First, the 30 year Bond rate had not made a new bear market low. Second, the declining phase of the 68 year Bond cycle had not displayed any signs of bottoming. Recently this has changed.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of U.S. Treasury 30 Year Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: WavePatternTraders

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHaving finally reached a long standing target of 148-150 (the call was made back when the media and many commentators were proclaiming the US bond market was dead near 135 this year).

Bonds have come roaring back to burn the bears for the umpteenth time over the past 3 or so years.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2012

U.S. Bond Market, The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated on Mankind / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rob_Kirby

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA few years ago, when J.P. Morgan grew their derivatives book by 12 Trillion in one quarter [Q3/07] – I did some back of the napkin math – and figured out how many 5 and 10 year bonds the Morgue would have necessarily had to transact on their swaps alone – if they are hedged.  The bonds required to hedge the growth in Morgan’s Swap book were 1.4 billion more in one day than what was mathematically available to the entire domestic bond market for a whole quarter?

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 10, 2012

The Bond Market Boom / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

Upon turning to this page, the speaker noted the 5-year returns show "an absolute flooding of the market and system with capital by central banks [QE, ESFS, LTRO...]. This has been an incredibly distortionary period." (The quotation is from notes, so is not exact.)

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 07, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Markets Black Hole Dynamics / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMan-made financial phenomena imitate nature, but more importantly they are subject to the powerful laws of economic nature. The Wall Street financial engineers have built vast structures, which tragically are crumbling and soon will fall to the ground. Vast illusory wealth will be lost, never truly garnered. The fiat currency system has required tremendous efforts not only to build the financial skyscrapers ever higher each year, but also to provide support structures that prevent their topple. With the aid of the subservient press, an illusion of wealth, prosperity, and stability has been fashioned and defended. It is all being blown away by the powerful storms known as the global financial crisis. The term has even earned an acronym for the popular lexicon GFC. My alternative view is that the global monetary war is in full swing, World War III with the USDollar at the epicenter of the conflict and pecuniary violence. A few years ago in June 2005, the Jackass penned an obscure article entitled "Financial Market Physics" just for amusement. Thanks to Vronsky and his intrepid work, the Gold-Eagle archive still lives (for old article CLICK HERE). In it was described momentum, pendulums, traction, leverage, resistance, support, inertia, coiled springs, meltdowns, high versus low pressure differentials, flow dynamics, imbalances, and the infamous black hole. The final concept is of extreme relevance today.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 05, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year Yield Could Drop to 1% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: In the wake of Friday's disastrous jobs number, 10-year Treasury Note yields finally fell through the 1.5% level, trading as low 1.44% on the day.

That plunge took many traders, talking heads and politicians by surprise.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 02, 2012

Did Interest Swaps Drive Down U.S. Treasury Bond Yields - Beware! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJim Willie alias The Jackass has a theory interest rate swaps created speculative demand for U.S. Treasuries and that drove yields down…in other words there is a bubble.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34819.html

If there is a bubble it will bust eventually; The Jackass says that could be catastrophic because the notional value is so huge. 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 24, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Teetering Tower Of Babel, Fed Stuck At 0% Forever / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Biblical story is told of a tower built ever higher in order to achieve contact with the heavens, lest they be scattered upon the earth. They were scattered when the tower fell. Fast forward to today, where the earth has a multitude of tribes, languages, and several major alphabets. When the Lehman Brothers failure occurred, and the Fannie Mae and AIG activities were to be concealed under court orders, the land turned barren, and a financial plague befell the Western nations led by the United States. They were after all, the keepers of the ark (printing press for USDollars). But a plague of debt locusts was cast upon the US nation, with annual $1.5 trillion deficits. The Americans in their unending arrogance, chose to speak from the tower top and to proclaim 0% forever, suspending gravity. They have attempted to force free money to finance their USGovt debts, to preserve power, to ensure privilege, but in doing so they defy nature in testing gravity itself.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, May 13, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast for Coming Week / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Manas_Banerji

French election outcome was not much disturbing but Greece is again creating the fear due to their inconclusive result or it will be better to say that Greek voters voted against the bailouts and those austerity measures. German minister’s remark about Greece may fuel lots of calculations. Market is speculating that Greece may quit Euro but here the important thing is what the Euro zone authorities are thinking! Earlier I was confused about holding back of 1bn euros of rescue money but as situation is developing, now it is quite understandable. 

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