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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, December 10, 2007

Nuclear Bond Implosion Ahead As Long-term Inflationary Expectations Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alex_Wallenwein

The US Fed's measure for long term inflationary expectations may keep it from dropping rates much further, potentially setting off a 'nuclear' bond-price implosion. An only hours-old Bloomberg article details why "Chopper-Bernie" may have to ground his inflation-helicopter much earlier than anyone expects.

In essence, an inflation indicator used by the Fed, and literally signed off on by Alan Greenspan, indicates that bond investors' long-term inflationary expectations are on the rise - and significantly so.

Bond investors have recently been lulled into a false sense of security by the alleged 'fact' that inflation remained so low.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

US Treasury Bond Market Rockets As Yields Drop Sharply on Flight to Safety / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The bond market is going wild again on the upside, thereby pressing 10 year T-note yield to 3.94% from Friday's close at 4.01%, while the 2 year T-note is yielding 3.04%... Let's take a look at the TLT's (Lehman 20 year T-bond ETF)...

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 19, 2007

NOLTE NOTES - Bond Market Rallies Despite Rising Inflation, Stocks to Buck Season Trend and Head Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_J_Nolte

The inflation figures released last week did little to derail the bond rally of the past few months. While it was in-line with expectations, the year-to-year inflation figures are running higher than many are comfortable with and as such, expect that the Fed is not going to cut rates that is already factored into the market. This holiday week, we'll get some housing data that many are hoping will indicate that housing is beginning to stabilize.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Rush For Treasury Bonds Safety As Risks Rise At Cash Money Market Funds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCertain “yield enhanced short term bond funds” which have been offered as higher yield substitutes for money market funds have been feeling the pinch from the credit markets. The latest victim is a company that you'd not normally think of as a finance company, General Electric Company. “The diversified manufacturing company's money management arm, GEAM, which oversees the $5 billion GEAM Trust Enhanced Cash Fund, is still invested in the fund, but GE warned last week that it would sell holdings amid tough market conditions.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 17, 2007

Treasury Bonds Real Interest Rates Go Negative as Yields Dip Below Inflation on Panic Safe-haven Buying / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Hardly anyone's noticed, but the frenzy of safe-haven bond-buying has just pushed real yields on US Treasuries below zero..."

IT'S BEEN A TOUGH WEEK for anyone Buying Gold just below its all-time record high of $850 per ounce last Friday.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Strong Uptrend in US Treasuries Suggesting Recession - Long Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

One very curious aspect of the powerful upmove in the equity market during the past 24 hours is the lack of opposite selling pressure in the bond market and Lehman 20-year T-note ETF (AMEX: TLT). If in fact last week's plunge in equities (into yesterday morning) aroused fears of an implosion, and with it a flight to safety in the bond market, then removal of such fears might be expected to reverse or eliminate the flight-to-safety premium. From the look and the behavior of the TLT's today, I have to wonder what is preserving the buoyancy of the long end of the Treasuries?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 02, 2007

US 10-Year Yields Press to New Lows on Weakening Economy, Lift TLTs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe strong upmove in the Lehman 20 Year T-note ETF (AMEX: TLT) suggests that notwithstanding this AM's strong Jobs Report, the bond market thinks that the economy is inherently weaker, and/or more vulnerable to the housing and credit crunch than most people think.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 19, 2007

Who Bought the US Treasury Bonds ? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rob_Kirby

According to the U.S. Treasury – the latest TIC data [August] tells us the following:

Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for August 

Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August are released today and posted on the U.S. Treasury web site ( www.treas.gov/tic ). The next release, which will report on data for September, is scheduled for November 16, 2007. 

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 24, 2007

More Upside for US Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The Lehman 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) continues to grind to new 4-month highs….See our recent daily chart, in which we note that our near and intermediate-term work continue to "warn" us to expect another surge in the TLT that thrusts prices towards 89, which appears to be gaining upside strength as we speak. The weakness in the equity indices hardly can be considered acute, yet the long end of the yield curve is ratching down (lower rates) to reflect expectations of…what?

An economic slowdown?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Investment Flash: Bull Market in Cash / Stock-Markets / US Bonds

By: Paul_Lamont

It looks as if the Summer of 1929 , has finally past. We are now experiencing " forced selling and unwinding of leverage on assets " that we stated would follow.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

US Bond Market and Interest Rates Quarterly Review and Outlook - Second Quarter 2007 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

This week in Outside the Box, we take a closer look at the bond market and its underlying drivers. HMIC's Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt anticipate lower inflationary pressures on account of faltering consumer spending and further deterioration in the housing market.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 13, 2007

Bond Market - Time to Face the Music / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

This week, bond rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's finally announced downgrades on billions of dollars of bonds backed by subprime mortgages. Though the cuts will certainly not reflect the full weakness of the bonds, and will not include nearly as many issues as they should, they nevertheless amount to the beginning of the end of the phony mortgage investment market and the unrealistically high home prices that it helped support.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Hyperinflation and the Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: David_Shvartsman

Here's one for all you economic philosophers and "bond market vigilante"-types. The question I'm currently turning over in my mind is this: can the U.S. experience hyperinflation, or will the possibility of such an extreme inflationary spiral be held in check by the bond markets?

The current thinking on the possibility of the United States experiencing hyperinflation seems to be split between those who say it can (and likely will at some point in the future), and those who feel it cannot, for precisely the reason stated above.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 12, 2007

CDO - Compound Damage Orgy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Collateralized Debt Obligations are the CDO bonds under fire, soon to suffer huge losses, subject of debt downgrades, object of failed auctions. We are talking about hundreds of billion$ in bond losses. A vicious circle has begun, sure to continue for a length of time ten times greater than what is expected, like into 2010. Home values are on the decline, the basis collateral for such asset-backed bonds, some of which hold car loan portfolios also in trouble. Homeowner defaults are on the decline, the basis income for such asset-backed bonds. The foreclosure process will aggravate the already swollen supply of homes. Hedge fund collapse will aggravate the already shaky supply of CDO & mortgage bonds. This is a worst case scenario unfolding on a horrific scale.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 05, 2007

Garbage Bonds and Bonfires / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

HOLIDAY

In keeping with the Independence Day holiday, a preface is offered. The irony is stiff as a board, as thick as a fog, as ugly as a pig. Citizens in the Untied States have never seen such a broad, deep, palpable threat to their liberty, this time from within, in terms of the system and its leadership. Dependence, the opposite of the celebrated theme, is running strong. The corporate agenda takes a one-day holiday. Refer to waging war, deceiving the masses, selling out the Middle Class, undermining the institutions, and rendering any threat to systemic reform as anti-business or unpatriotic.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 29, 2007

Absolute Bond Contagion to Hit Financial Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

When the contagion (denied no longer) is systemic, pervasive, broad, multi-faceted, and ominous in its lethal potential, perhaps one can calmly conclude that the system is merely adjusting to a total change in the seas. NO WAY !!! Without much doubt whatsoever, Bear Stearns is GROUND ZERO for the bond market firestorm.

BS was forced to extend $3.2 billion in loans to its hedge fund clients, who attempted to liquidate but could not. That represents 25% of the BS entire capital. Don't worry. Both hedge funds will eventually die, but when they do, BS will possibly die with them. A few months time is all they bought. Call it a STAY OF EXECUTION in legal parlance.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 25, 2007

Will The US Bond Market Break The Camel's Back? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clif_Droke

“Bond shockwaves to ripple through U.S.” was the big, bold headline that greeted readers of the Financial Times newspaper following the recent bond sell-off and corresponding rise in yields. “A sell-off in the financial markets this week could have serious implications for the whole economy, says Krishna Guha.” Pretty dramatic stuff to say the least. But that's to be expected as the news media uses the latest financial “crisis of the week” to scare the average investor into believing financial collapse is imminent.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 22, 2007

Ain’t No Yield High Enough / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

Now that yields on ten-year Treasuries have cracked through 5%, on their way to infinity and beyond, many on Wall Street are wondering how high rates must go before bonds begin to draw investors away from stocks. 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Rising US Bond Yields - The Big Picture / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Marty_Chenard

We have had a lot of inquiries about rising bond yields because they have been making the market jittery. So this morning we will do an in depth look at the 30 year bond yields to show you what significant event has happened and what the current situation looks like.

Chart 1: First, let's look at the big picture on bond yields from 1999 to June 2007.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2007

Long-term Bond Yield Mega Trend - A Unique Era / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Aden_Forecast

The gold market has been under pressure lately and some investors are feeling a little nervous. But the major trend is clearly up. That being the case, let's stand back and look at the facts...

Gold has been rising for over six years and it's gained 158% since then. That works out to 26% per annum, which has consistently been better than most other markets. The recent weakness is a bump in the road and it's not unusual. We continue to believe that gold will likely rise for years to come, eventually reaching at least $2000 and it'll probably go even higher.

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