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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Hyperinflation and the Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: David_Shvartsman

Here's one for all you economic philosophers and "bond market vigilante"-types. The question I'm currently turning over in my mind is this: can the U.S. experience hyperinflation, or will the possibility of such an extreme inflationary spiral be held in check by the bond markets?

The current thinking on the possibility of the United States experiencing hyperinflation seems to be split between those who say it can (and likely will at some point in the future), and those who feel it cannot, for precisely the reason stated above.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 12, 2007

CDO - Compound Damage Orgy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Collateralized Debt Obligations are the CDO bonds under fire, soon to suffer huge losses, subject of debt downgrades, object of failed auctions. We are talking about hundreds of billion$ in bond losses. A vicious circle has begun, sure to continue for a length of time ten times greater than what is expected, like into 2010. Home values are on the decline, the basis collateral for such asset-backed bonds, some of which hold car loan portfolios also in trouble. Homeowner defaults are on the decline, the basis income for such asset-backed bonds. The foreclosure process will aggravate the already swollen supply of homes. Hedge fund collapse will aggravate the already shaky supply of CDO & mortgage bonds. This is a worst case scenario unfolding on a horrific scale.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 05, 2007

Garbage Bonds and Bonfires / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

HOLIDAY

In keeping with the Independence Day holiday, a preface is offered. The irony is stiff as a board, as thick as a fog, as ugly as a pig. Citizens in the Untied States have never seen such a broad, deep, palpable threat to their liberty, this time from within, in terms of the system and its leadership. Dependence, the opposite of the celebrated theme, is running strong. The corporate agenda takes a one-day holiday. Refer to waging war, deceiving the masses, selling out the Middle Class, undermining the institutions, and rendering any threat to systemic reform as anti-business or unpatriotic.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 29, 2007

Absolute Bond Contagion to Hit Financial Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

When the contagion (denied no longer) is systemic, pervasive, broad, multi-faceted, and ominous in its lethal potential, perhaps one can calmly conclude that the system is merely adjusting to a total change in the seas. NO WAY !!! Without much doubt whatsoever, Bear Stearns is GROUND ZERO for the bond market firestorm.

BS was forced to extend $3.2 billion in loans to its hedge fund clients, who attempted to liquidate but could not. That represents 25% of the BS entire capital. Don't worry. Both hedge funds will eventually die, but when they do, BS will possibly die with them. A few months time is all they bought. Call it a STAY OF EXECUTION in legal parlance.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 25, 2007

Will The US Bond Market Break The Camel's Back? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clif_Droke

“Bond shockwaves to ripple through U.S.” was the big, bold headline that greeted readers of the Financial Times newspaper following the recent bond sell-off and corresponding rise in yields. “A sell-off in the financial markets this week could have serious implications for the whole economy, says Krishna Guha.” Pretty dramatic stuff to say the least. But that's to be expected as the news media uses the latest financial “crisis of the week” to scare the average investor into believing financial collapse is imminent.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 22, 2007

Ain’t No Yield High Enough / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

Now that yields on ten-year Treasuries have cracked through 5%, on their way to infinity and beyond, many on Wall Street are wondering how high rates must go before bonds begin to draw investors away from stocks. 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Rising US Bond Yields - The Big Picture / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Marty_Chenard

We have had a lot of inquiries about rising bond yields because they have been making the market jittery. So this morning we will do an in depth look at the 30 year bond yields to show you what significant event has happened and what the current situation looks like.

Chart 1: First, let's look at the big picture on bond yields from 1999 to June 2007.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2007

Long-term Bond Yield Mega Trend - A Unique Era / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Aden_Forecast

The gold market has been under pressure lately and some investors are feeling a little nervous. But the major trend is clearly up. That being the case, let's stand back and look at the facts...

Gold has been rising for over six years and it's gained 158% since then. That works out to 26% per annum, which has consistently been better than most other markets. The recent weakness is a bump in the road and it's not unusual. We continue to believe that gold will likely rise for years to come, eventually reaching at least $2000 and it'll probably go even higher.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2007

WIll China Keep Throwing Good Money After Bad? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

At a commercial real estate conference earlier this week, Alan Greenspan downplayed concerns that the Chinese might sell their significant holdings of U.S. Treasuries. The former Fed chairman based his opinion not on the inherent investment merits of Treasuries, but rather on their lack of them. His confidence stems simply from his belief that the Chinese have no one to whom they can sell. Furthermore, Greenspan sees this as a problem for the Chinese and not the U.S.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 15, 2007

When will this Bond Market Rout End? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Mike Larson writes : If bond traders thought the worst was over last week, they had another thing coming to 'em. Long Bond futures prices fell Monday … dropped sharply Tuesday … bounced Wednesday … then slumped again yesterday. All told, Treasuries lost value in seven out of the past eight days.

Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury Note yields have soared! They're up more than three-quarters of a percentage point from their December low. In fact, 10-year yields briefly touched 5.30% this week, the highest level in five years.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 14, 2007

US Bond Market Upheaval and Confusion / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

In late March, an article pointed out the massive powerful cross currents in the USTreasury bond world. We are seeing the forces described finally at work. The aftermath has generated more questions than answers. In “Cross Currents for USTBonds” (click here ), several bullish factors were cited for bonds, but also several bearish factors were cited also. This will be a short review of relevant points, since the Vancouver Gold Show is this weekend.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Remain Calm! It's only a bunch of Bear Markets / Stock-Markets / US Bonds

By: Brady_Willett

“A measure of utility companies lost 1.5 percent for the second steepest decline among 10 industries in the S&P 500. Collectively the stocks have a dividend yield of 3.05 percent, the most in the index. Higher bond yields make their dividends less attractive.” Bloomberg

The guaranteed yield on the 1-year Treasury bond broke above 5% yesterday and – suddenly? – a risky dividend yield of 3.05% becomes ‘less attractive'? Why were the lowly yields on utilities, which are the highest of any S&P group, not ‘unattractive' a couple of months ago or even last year? Read full article... Read full article...

 


Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

A Pyrrhic Victory for the Fed as Long Interest Rates Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The recent sell-off in equity prices illustrates how vulnerable markets are to higher interest rates. It is my contention that the catalyst for the correction had more to do with Syria and Kuwait dropping their peg to the dollar than some epiphany from investors that the U.S. has entered into a secular trend of robust G.D.P. growth; regardless, the questions of particular saliency now are: how high will rates go? Why must they go higher at all? And does the Fed really target economic growth when it raises the Fed Funds rate?

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Goodbye to the Good Old Days as US Bond Yields Surge / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_J_Panzner

Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note recorded its biggest one-day jump in years and breached the five percent level for the first time since July. Other fixed-income markets quickly followed suit, hurt not only by a nominal rise in rates but by a jump in risk spreads. One trader described the sell-off in the mortgage-backed securities market as "a good old-fashioned mortgage puke."

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 09, 2007

What’s the Deal with US Bond Yields? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Why have bond yields moved so violently upward this past week? Well, yes, some of the data last week were stronger than expected. But come on, May nonfarm payrolls increasing 157,000, getting a boost from 203,000 assumed (birth/death adjustment) workers being added to unadjusted payrolls, and coming on the heels of an 80,000 increase in April is hardly the stuff of the bond market massacre we have witnessed this week.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 08, 2007

Bonds In The Tank? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andy_Sutton

On first glance, it might appear that this is a baseball column. Certainly, Barry Bonds has had a tough time getting decent pitches to hit out the park recently. Such has also been the case with the bond market. As of the time of this writing, the yield on the 10-year has touched 5.25% indicating a shift shift in thought. There are two sides to every story, and like most other situations the ramifications are far-reaching. 

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 08, 2007

What Will the Fed Make of the US Bond Market Panic? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Adrian_Ash

"...If US consumers and Washington can't borrow cheap at the long end this summer, then they'll just have to get cheap money at the short end instead..."

"POSSIBLY THE EASIEST act for any human being is to spend money which does not belong to him," wrote Robert L. Smitley in his 1933 classic, Popular Financial Delusions .

The only thing easier, in fact, is lending money that's not yours and earning a yield on the profit or loss either way. "Almost anyone will risk funds in an enterprise when the funds are not his own," Smitley went on during the Western world's last Great Depression. Hence today's bubble in all assets.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 08, 2007

Bond Market Massacre! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Mike Larson, here. Two weeks ago, I issued an urgent bond market warning. I said that Treasury bond prices were falling and threatening a critical level of support. If we broke through it, I said, prices could really plunge and rates could take off like a rocket.

Well, guess what? We just sliced through that support like a hot knife through butter. Long bonds plunged by more than a point yesterday. While that may not sound like much, it was the biggest one-day percentage drop in more than 26 months!

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 25, 2007

Tremors in the US Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

I've had plenty to talk about in recent weeks — underperforming REITs … the ongoing problems in housing … risky commercial real estate financing … private equity firms gone wild … overseas profit opportunities. These are truly interesting times in many markets.

But there's been one thing I haven't talked about — interest rates. The reason? They haven't been going anywhere. You ever see one of those EKG machine readouts? That's what the chart of 10-year Treasury Note yields has looked like since last August.

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