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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: China

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, August 05, 2017

China’s Growth Driven By Shadow Banking Is Potential Trigger For Next Global Recession / Economics / China

By: John_Mauldin

China is unstoppable.

GDP growth has slowed down to 6.9%, according to official numbers. The numbers are likely inflated, but the boom is still underway.

Reasonable estimates from knowledgeable observers still have China growing at 4–5%, which is rather remarkable given China’s size.

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Politics

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

China’s Belt and Road to Nowhere / Politics / China

By: Michael_Pento

Moody’s Investors Service downgraded China’s credit rating recently to A1 from Aa3. The rational being that it expects the financial strength of the economy to erode, as GDP growth slows and debt levels continue to pile up. What is Beijing’s response to the slowing economy and intractable debt accumulation that was just underscored by Moody’s: issue a mountain of new debt in order to pave over 60 countries around the globe?

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Politics

Thursday, March 23, 2017

China’s Biggest Limitations Determine the Future of East Asia / Politics / China

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : As we wrote about in “China’s Strategy,” East Asia is split into four parts: The Pacific archipelago, the Chinese mainland, the Korean Peninsula, and Indochina. East Asia holds the second and third largest world economies: China and Japan. The relationship between them and the US define modern East Asian geopolitics.

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Politics

Wednesday, February 01, 2017

China’s “One Belt, One Road” Is a Nice Thought, but Nothing More / Politics / China

By: John_Mauldin

BY JACOB SHAPIRO : In late 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) plan in Kazakhstan and Indonesia.

Xi’s OBOR could be a bold economic development program that will vault Chinese political power ahead in the modern day. However, the OBOR plan is at an early stage.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

China's Unfinished Trade Revolution / Economics / China

By: STRATFOR

Dec. 11 marks the 15th anniversary of China's accession to the World Trade Organization. Measured by its impact on the Chinese economy, which has grown almost tenfold since 2001, accession to the WTO was no less momentous than the epochal changes ushered in by the start of "Reform and Opening" in 1978 or the fiscal and political recentralization that followed the 1989 Tiananmen crisis. In the scale and speed of changes it wrought on Chinese society and politics, WTO accession was hardly less revolutionary than the Great Leap Forward of 1958-1961 or the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution of 1966-1976. And in terms of their import for the structure of the global economy, few events in recent memory equal China's entry into the organization. By virtually any indicator, Dec. 11, 2001, was an inflection point not only for China's economy but also for much of the world's. But the anniversary also highlights how Chinese integration into the global economy remains incomplete.

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Politics

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Trump Got an Edge over China with a Single Phone Call / Politics / China

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Donald Trump spoke on the telephone with the president of Taiwan, causing deep upset. It was counter to an understanding in place since Richard Nixon opened the door with China in 1972.

This understanding included an American endorsement of the one-China policy. This policy held that Taiwan is part of China, but would continue to behave as if it weren’t. The US agreed not to have diplomatic relations with Taiwan and pretend it isn’t a close ally.

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Politics

Saturday, July 09, 2016

China Part 2: Path To Regaining Face, Reclaiming Middle Kingdom Status / Politics / China

By: Raymond_Matison

Potential War as Agent of Change

Geopolitics in the late 1960s and early 1970s were dominated by considerations of the Cold War.  The Soviet Union and The Peoples Republic of China were staunchly communist in their conviction and actions.  The United States understood that these two powers when united represented a formidable enemy.  Utilizing a brief period of policy difference between Russia and China, President Nixon sought an opportunity to split the interests of these two communist countries, and managed in secret to arrange a meeting with Mao Zedong in 1972, which ultimately led to China’s leaning to the West.  , That action was purely based on geopolitical considerations, and no design or underlying concept of trade between the two countries was evident at that time. 

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Politics

Saturday, July 09, 2016

China’s Long March To Saving Face. Part 1 / Politics / China

By: Raymond_Matison

It was a little over 800 years ago when the Venetian Marco Polo returned from China to reveal and author his wondrous travel experiences.  At that time, the North American continent was still undiscovered.  Principalities, nations or even empires could grow in one part of the world without much awareness of it elsewhere.  Thus it was that China grew, developed and expanded for over four thousand years largely isolated from the Western World.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

The Worst Urban Crisis in History Could be Upon Us / Stock-Markets / China

By: Harry_Dent

Like our resident market P.I. John Del Vecchio, Kyle Bass is one of those hedge fund managers who profited in the last crash when he bought credit default swaps to short the housing market.

He’s also one of the few financiers in the market today who says there’s a reasonable chance the U.S. will fall into a recession over the coming months. But he’s really on the money when it comes to China.

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Politics

Friday, November 06, 2015

Volkswagen and China: A Perfect Fit / Politics / China

By: Raul_I_Meijer

If Angela Merkel wants to get rid of one of her major headaches, we suggest she should tell Volkswagen to move its operations from Wolfsburg to China. It may seem a strange thing to do at first blush, with 750,000 German jobs on the line, but bear with us here, because this could well be the only way to preserve at least some value for VW’s stock- and bondholders.

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Politics

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Why I'm Never Going to 'Two-Bit' China / Politics / China

By: Mike_Shedlock

I would never go to China, even if someone paid for the trip and all expenses.

My reason can be explained in one headline: China Arrests US Citizen for 'Endangering National Security'

An American businesswoman has been formally arrested in China on suspicion of "endangering national security" just days before Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in the US for his first official state visit.

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Politics

Friday, July 03, 2015

Xi’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Key to China’s Prospects / Politics / China

By: John_Mauldin

George Magnus is one of the most influential economists in the world today. From his position as chief economist at UBS for a number of years, he enjoyed a front-row seat to growth miracles, credit booms, and financial crises in major economies around the world and is widely credited with identifying the trigger points that eventually led to the global financial crisis in 2008.

Today, he works as an associate at Oxford University’s China Center, a senior economic adviser at UBS, and an independent economic consultant to governments and private investors who can afford his limited time.

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Politics

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

China Syndrome / Politics / China

By: Mike_Whitney

China’s meteoric rise has Washington worried, not because China is a threat to its neighbors or to US national security, but because China’s influence is expanding across the region. It’s creating the institutions it needs to finance its own development (AIIB and New BRICS Bank),  it’s building the infrastructure needed to connect the continents with state-of-the-art high-speed rail (New Silk Road), and its attracting allies and trading partners who want to participate in its plan for growth and prosperity. This is why Washington is worried; it’s because China has transformed itself into an economic powerhouse that doesn’t conform to the neoliberal model of punitive austerity, pernicious privatization,  and madcap asset inflation.  China has slipped out of the empire’s orbit and charted its own course, which is why Washington wants to provoke Beijing over its negligible land reclamation activities in the South China Sea. Washington thinks it can succeed militarily where it has failed economically and politically. Case in point; check this out from Bloomberg News:

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Economics

Monday, June 15, 2015

China - The People’s Republic of Debt / Economics / China

By: John_Mauldin

It wasn’t that many centuries ago that China was the absolute economic center of the world. That center gravitated to Europe and then towards North America and has now begun moving back to China. My colleague Jawad Mian provided this chart showing the evolution of Earth’s economic center of gravity from 2000 years ago to a few years and into the future:

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Politics

Friday, May 22, 2015

Time To Get Real About China / Politics / China

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The present Chinese leadership appears to be trying to gain (regain?) more -if not full- control over the country’s economic system, while at the same time (re-)boosting the growth it has lost in recent years.

President Xi Jinping, prime minister Li Keqiang and all of their subservient leaders – there are 1000′s of those in a 1.4 million citizens country- apparently think this can be done. Yours truly doubts it.

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Politics

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

China-Japan Before China-Taiwan / Politics / China

By: EconMatters

Some long time readers probably know I occasionally write about Asian geopolitics related to China and Taiwan.  Since Taiwan typically goes under the radar of major news media, I usually google browse both Chinese and English news about Taiwan.  Over the weekend, I came across one disturbing piece of article by Hugh White who's a professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University in Canberra.  Excerpt below:

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Politics

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

China's Fragile Evolution / Politics / China

By: STRATFOR

Rodger Baker and John Minnich write: Last week, China's anti-corruption campaign took a significant turn, though a largely overlooked one. The Supreme People's Court released a statement accusing former Politburo Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang, the highest-ranked official thus far implicated in China's ongoing anti-corruption campaign, of having "trampled the law, damaged unity within the Communist Party, and conducted non-organizational political activities." In Chinese bureaucratic speak, this was only a few steps shy of confirming earlier rumors that Zhou and his former political ally and one-time rising star from Chongqing, Bo Xilai, had plotted a coup to pre-empt or repeal the ascension of Chinese President and Party General Secretary Xi Jinping. Thus, the court's statement marks a radical departure from the hitherto depoliticized official language of the anti-corruption campaign.

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Politics

Thursday, November 27, 2014

China Strengthening Claim To South China Sea Oil And Gas / Politics / China

By: OilPrice_Com

Not gone and not forgotten, China is ready to solidify its claim to the South China Sea (SCS). Recent satellite imagery confirms China is conducting significant land reclamation operations in the Spratly Islands in the SCS. The SCS is an important fishing ground and is believed to hold large amounts of oil and gas. Undermining the United States' influence in the region, China intends to play the shepherd in one of the world's busiest trade routes.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

China Food Crisis ? / Commodities / China

By: Chris_Orr

China is having the worst drought in half a century, which will result in a devastating harvest.

Or: China is going to have a record crop this year.

Those are the two stories coming out of China in just a two-week time span.

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Politics

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

The End of Consensus Politics in China / Politics / China

By: STRATFOR

John Minnich writes: Chinese President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign is the broadest and deepest effort to purge, reorganize and rectify the Communist Party leadership since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976 and the rise of Deng Xiaoping two years later. It has already probed more than 182,000 officials across numerous regions and at all levels of government. It has ensnared low-level cadres, mid-level functionaries and chiefs of major state-owned enterprises and ministries. It has deposed top military officials and even a former member of the hitherto immune Politburo Standing Committee, China's highest governing body. More than a year after its formal commencement and more than two years since its unofficial start with the downfall of Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai, the campaign shows no sign of relenting.

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