Category: UK General Election
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, May 09, 2015
May2015_com UK General Election Seats Forecast vs Outcome / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The opinion pollsters for the 2015 UK general election were not just off by a few seats but got their polling very badly wrong to the extent of which party(s) could form the next government. This article is an analysis of the New Statesman's May2015.com popular election forecasting website that produced near daily updates of the seats per party forecast based on the opinion polls, that I tracked during 3 months in the lead up to the May 7th vote.
Saturday, May 09, 2015
Nate Silver Badly Wrong AGAIN on UK General Election Forecast - 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
U.S. Election forecasting guru Nate Silver's forecasting firm http://fivethirtyeight.com, that got the 2015 UK general election just as badly wrong as he the previous 2010, have been busy putting up a smoke screen of excuses as to why they got it wrong once more, as a case of when they get it right claim praise but when wrong blames others such as the opinion polls - Its your methodology stupid!
Friday, May 08, 2015
UK Stocks, Bonds, Even Housing Market Celebrate Conservative Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Financial markets relief at having avoided a Labour-SNP catastrophe triggered sharp rallies across UK markets with the FTSE closing up 2.3% at 7,046 and closing in on its all time high of a month ago of 7,122. UK bonds also surged with the 10 year bond yield falling sharply to 1.8% from just above 2%. And even average house prices added 1.6% following publication of Halifax data for April with sterling strength continuing from publication of last nights exit poll.
Friday, May 08, 2015
UK House Prices Correctly Forecast / Predicted Conservative Election Win 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the opinion pollsters, academics, pseudo-analysts (journalists) and book makers ALL got the 2015 UK general election badly wrong right upto the close of the polls, who collectively forecast that the only workable outcome would be one of a minority Labour government supported by the SNP. Instead the actual result surprised all by delivering an outright small majority Conservative government that not even the exit poll forecast and which only became apparent after about 600 of the 650 results were declared.
Friday, May 08, 2015
Labour Crisis - Call for independent inquiry into election defeat / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Submissions
Reacting on Labour's heavy defeat Neal Lawson, chair of the Compass pressure group has said:
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Friday, May 08, 2015
Conservative Win 2015 UK General Election, BBC Forecast of 329 Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With 47 seats out of 650 seats still to declare the BBC for the past half hour or so has been forecasting that the Conservatives now look set to win an outright majority of 329 seats, against Labour on 233, whilst the Lib Dems face a catastrophic result of just 8 seats, the SNP wiping out Labour in Scotland on a landslide win of 56 seats and UKIP trailing on just 2 despite a huge swing in their favour from both Labour and Conservative.
Friday, May 08, 2015
Conservative Outright Majority Election 2015 Win Possible / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Increasingly as the night has progressed where rather than one of the Exit Poll being wrong by over forecasting the number of seats the Conservatives would winl (316). Instead with 344 of 650 results declared (5.15am), it is becoming increasingly likely that the Conservatives may well just be able to pull off an outright majority (323+), this is as a consequence of the continuing stronger than forecast swing from Labour to Conservatives than indicated by the Exit Poll.
Friday, May 08, 2015
Politicians Warn UK Election Exit Poll is Wrong But BBC Seats Forecast Confirms Conservative Strong Win / Economics / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Politicians of virtually every political party bar the Conservatives have been warning all night that the Exit Poll must be wrong with statements such as that they would 'eat their hat' (Paddy Ashdown) and that during the course of the night the actual results would come inline with the opinion polls that painted a much tighter race. However, with 102 actual results declared by 3.20am, the BBC continues to maintain its exit poll seats per party forecast that puts the Conservatives on 316 seats, Labour on 239, Lib Dems on 10 and SNP on 58.
Thursday, May 07, 2015
Exit Poll Forecasts Conservative UK Election 2015 Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Within minutes of Britain's 50,000 polling stations closing at 10pm, the Exit Poll has been released for the UK General Election 2015 that forecasts seat projections for the Conservatives on 316, Labour on 239, Lib Dems on 10 and the SNP on 58 which implies that the Conservatives have won the election and can either go it alone with support from the DUP on 324 or continue the Coalition with the Lib Dems on 326.
Thursday, May 07, 2015
UK Election Ignores BREXIT, GREXIT, Significant Economic Risks / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: GoldCore
- UK election today expected to yield “hung parliament”
- Election not seen marked decline in pound as was the case in run up to last election
- Election ‘chaos’ could trigger a ‘Lehman moment’ for pound
- Recent history shows Labour victory not inherently bad for sterling
- Concern that Miliband’s Labour closer to that of Brown than Blair
- BOE warn deficits could “trigger a deterioration in market sentiment towards the UK”
- “Punch and Judy” politics ignores BREXIT, GREXIT and significant economic risk
Thursday, May 07, 2015
UK General Election Exit Polls Forecast Accuracy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Over 50,000 polling stations are open today across the UK to cope with the expected demand from an estimated 32 million voters out of a total of approx 47 million eligible to vote. With all eyes turned to the next big event of the election, the EXIT POLL to follow within minutes of the polls closing at 10pm. Which unlike the multitudes of daily opinion polls that have hardly budged for the past 2 months, the exit poll should provide an accurate gauge of what is the probable outcome of the general election some 10 hours before enough seats have been counted to make the actual result clear.
Thursday, May 07, 2015
15 Hours to Save England from SNP Scottish Nationalist Dictatorship - Election 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
England is sleep walking towards a potentially catastrophic election outcome, one of where Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond's Scottish Nationalists who with just 4% of the vote would hold the balance of power over 85% of the electorate in England via a weak Milliband minority Labour government, as the final set of opinion polls imply could happen primarily due to votes wasted on UKIP that results in denying the Conservatives some 20-30 additional seats that look set to mostly being lost to Labour.
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
Stocks, Bonds, Sterling and House Prices Forecast Conservative UK Election Win / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The opinion pollsters eager to sell their services to the mainstream press, who just as eagerly enjoy publishing attention grabbing headlines of the UK set for the mother of all indecisive election results, one of neither major party even with the Lib-Dems being able to form a government without the aid of the SNP insurgency that is determined to destroy Britain through bankruptcy by going on a debt fuelled spending spree on the UK's credit card before declaring independence.
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
Final Opinion Polls Forecast Labour-Lib Dem Minority SNP Supported Government - Election 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the leaders of the three major parties may be busy dashing around the UK on the last day of campaigning ahead of Thursdays poll, in reality they are unlikely to make any difference to election outcome, just as the last 2 months of frenetic campaigning has seen hardly any change in the opinion polls that unanimously point to an extreme hung parliament where even with Lib Dem backing neither Labour, nor the Conservatives will be able to muster a parliamentary working majority.
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam Seat Won, Race on to Save Lib Dem Marginal's / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, who apparently where the opinion pollsters are concerned is at risk of losing his Sheffield Hallam seat to Labours Oliver Coppard, said goodbye to the good folks of Sheffield Hallam with a thank you note sent to most if not all residents and began his 36 hour 1000 mile dash on the Lib Dem battle bus across the UK to bolster the vote in more than a dozen Lib Dem marginal constituencies.
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Conservatives Nightmare of Labour - Lib Dem Minority Government - Election Forecast 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With just 2 days to go until Britain goes to the polls the desperation is evident on the faces of the politicians as the ferociously campaign for a handful more of seats that could enough to form the next government as one thing the opinion polls agree upon is that no major party will win an outright majority.
Monday, May 04, 2015
Nate Silver UK General Election Forecast 2015 as Wrong as 2010? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Last weeks BBC Panorama programme featured Nate Silver who apparently is famous for forecasting the outcome of the 2012 US election, so with much press hype is expected to accurately forecast results for the May 7th UK General election. The BBC Panorama programme after near 30 minutes of mind numbingly boring footage of basically a caravan driving around the UK, finally has Nate Silver state his forecast conclusion that put the Conservatives on 283 seats, Labour 270, SNP 48, Lib Dems 24 and UKIP on just 1 seat.
Sunday, May 03, 2015
UK Election 2015 Forecast - The Most Probable Outcome is... / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's voters go to the polls in just a few days time with the opinion polls suggesting no major party will come even close to winning a majority that has prompted a daily flood of bribes from politicians from housing market subsidies, to tax cutting promises, to spending bonanzas on public services, to promises to cut the deficit, contradictory promises that just cannot become manifest which most voters well understand and why there has been so little shift in the opinion polls during the past two months of intense campaigning as both Labour and Conservative even with Lib Dem support remain well short of an overall majority.
Friday, May 01, 2015
UK Election Forecast 2015 - Who Will Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There remain just 6 days until the voters of Britain go to the polls with the nations share of the vote spread widely amongst Britain's 6 significant political parties that has prompted a daily flood of bribes from politicians from housing market subsidies to tax cutting promises to spending bonanzas on public services, where virtually 70% of that which is being promised just cannot happen because politicians promises to increase spending, cut taxes AND cut the deficit are pure smoke and mirrors, which most voters well understand and why there has been so little shift in the opinion polls following two months of intense campaigning and thus unlikely to shift in the remaining few days becasue voters understand that probability favours another minority led coalition government of sorts which means that at least 1/3rd of the manifestos never mind the more recent promises will be jettisoned with many excuses ready for why.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
Why Labour Cannot Win Sheffield Hallam and other Lib-Dem / Conservative Key Marginal Seats / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pollsters and political pundits paint a picture of Labour standing a good chance of winning Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat that illustrates the national battle that Labour is engaged in against the Lib-Dems and Conservatives in key marginal seats across England which means that despite losing as many as 40 of their 41 Scottish MP's to the SNP, Labour still hopes to have won enough seats in England and Wales to form a minority government under the strings of the SNP.