Category: Crude Oil
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, May 22, 2017
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
JACOB L. SHAPIRO : It was only a few months ago that OPEC, once the de facto arbiter of oil markets, seemed to have a plan to inflate the price of oil: The cartel, along with several non-OPEC members, agreed in December to cut production by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day.
And for the first quarter of 2017, OPEC largely made good on its pledge. It produced 1.1 million fewer barrels of oil per day in the first quarter of 2017 than it did in the final quarter of 2016. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, accounted for 55% of the cuts.
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Thursday, May 18, 2017
Here’s The Truth About Russia’s OPEC Crude Oil Cuts / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
By Geopolitical Futures : In December 2016, Russia joined OPEC in a pledge to cut oil production by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day.
And for the first quarter of 2017, OPEC largely made good on its pledge. It produced 1.1 million fewer barrels of oil per day in the first quarter of 2017 than it did in the final quarter of 2016.
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Monday, May 15, 2017
Crude Oil Price Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Crude gained $1.62/bbl. last week and closed at 47.84 but still below the 200-dma. BWI (bandwidth indicator) fell in non-confirmation of the rally.
Support is at 45.25. I suspect we will see a run to the 200-dma at 49.00 prior to new lows in crude however, the detrended oscillator is overbought warning of a pullback early this week.
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Friday, May 12, 2017
Will Crude Oil Stocks Breaks above Medium-term Resistance Line? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
In recent weeks crude oil came back below the barrier of $50, which triggered declines and resulted in a drop to almost six-month lows. Despite this move, oil bulls pushed the commodity higher, which resulted in an invalidation of the breakdowns under important support levels. What happened at the same time with oil stocks? Will we see higher values of the XOI in the coming weeks?
Let’s jump right into charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com) and find out what can we infer from them about future moves.
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Thursday, April 20, 2017
2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The flow of international trade has always been subject to geopolitical risk and conflicts. At all stages of the supply chain, trade inherently faces challenges posed by the geopolitical realities along a given route.
Some routes are more perilous and harder to navigate than others. One such trade route is the maritime path for transporting oil from Persian Gulf exporters to East Asian consumers. This route faces two major choke points that are unavoidable given geographic constraints.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Plungers Big Trade - The Oil Short / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Plunger
The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify. Base metal producers, car companies, sub prime financiers, retail establishments, the list goes on. The main vehicle I have chosen to execute the trade is the oil price. I have chosen this because both fundamentals and technicals indicate to me it is over priced and due for a fall. It trades deep and has a record of falling under distressed economic conditions.
"All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream." - Edger Allan Poe
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
What Bullish Sentiment Means for Crude Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ed_Carlson
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a reversal in the oil markets and outlines his strategy.
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Monday, April 17, 2017
History of the Post WWII Crude Oil Price From a Technical Perspective / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Plunger
This is part I of a 3-part series introducing Plunger's "Trade of the Year". This section gives a review of the oil price from 1946 to present explaining the essential forces which powered its price through various bull and bear markets. It explains how we ended up where we are today in the oil market. Part II will explore the macro forces driving today's economy which lays the groundwork for introducing my trade of the year in part III.
To acquire a broader view of oils path over the past century I highly recommend the following resources on the oil market. Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" is an in-depth review of the history of oil up to the First Gulf war. It is indispensable in understanding the growth of the industry. Other books provide entertaining color to the industry by reviewing the swashbuckling nature of the early players who formed the industry as independents. I recommend "The Big Rich" by Bryan Burrough and JP Getty's autobiography "The Way I See It". Finally, David Stockman's "The Great Deformation" is essential reading as it corrects all the false economic narratives of the past which have been masquerading as truth.
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Friday, April 14, 2017
Supply Crunch Or Oil Glut: Investment Banks Can't Agree / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
In recent years, U.S. shale has thrown in another unknown in the mix of factors driving the price of oil. This year, shale output forecasts combine with OPEC's production cuts, geopolitical factors, and unexpected outages to further complicate supply/demand and oil price forecasts by Wall Street's major investment banks.
The biggest banks remain bullish on oil prices, expecting moderate price gains by the end of the year, even after last month WTI prices dropped below $50 for a couple of weeks.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
When Will Russia Run Out Of Oil? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
On a global level, 2015 and 2016 marked the lowest level of new conventional oil discoveries since 1952. In 2016, only 3.7 billion barrels of conventional oil were discovered, roughly 45 days of global crude consumption or 0.2 percent of global proved reserves. Globally, exploratory drilling fell by almost 20 percent in 2015 and fell even further in 2016. Russia’s exploration activities, which were hit not only by plummeting oil prices but also by a targeted sanctions regime, suffered a double blow during this period. In 2015, only seven new hydrocarbon discoveries were made in Russia, three of them in the Baltic Sea. In 2016, oil and gas companies in Russia discovered 40 prospective fields, however, the 3P reserves of the largest among them, Rosneft’s Nertsetinskoye, amounted to 17.4 million tons. This stands in stark contrast with pre-sanction period achievements, for instance, 2014’s largest find, Pobeda, is believed to contain 130 million tons of oil and 0.5TCm of gas.
Friday, March 31, 2017
There Is No Such Thing As Peak Oil Demand / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Notwithstanding that oil demand has increased for over 150 years, it will eventually stop increasing. If oil demand were to reach an actual peak, then the top might be easier to predict. As it stands, the forecast models of demand are likely predicting peak demand far later than it will be.
Friday, March 24, 2017
This Single Model Explains Crude Oil Price Swings / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : One of the things we learned when oil collapsed a couple of years ago—something I’ve written about previously—was that there was a positive feedback loop embedded in declining oil prices.
Basic economic theory would tell you that as the price declines, so does oil supply. But the opposite turned out to be true. The rice went down, and people pumped more!
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Wednesday, March 22, 2017
An OPEC Oil Deal Extension Isn’t As Simple As It Sounds / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
It’s been six months now that oil prices have been reacting to OPEC, first to the possibility of an agreement, and then to the production cut deal itself, forged by OPEC to rebalance the market. The deal--initially aired as ‘an agreement to agree on a deal’ in September and signed at the end of November—will likely impact the market for at least the next six months.
Monday, March 20, 2017
Crude Oil Price Decline Continuation / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Bob_Loukas
I like this Crude oil decline, and to date, it has been a picture perfect Cycle’s development. Members of The Financial Tap were already tracking that expectation in advance, and positioned well to take advantage. But that big decline, which started on March 7th took many by surprise, judging by the extreme (Long) positioning seen with the COT report. And if you were not already short before the move began, the speed of the decline made it nearly impossible to establish a new position thereafter.
Thursday, March 16, 2017
Crude Oil Price Outlook 2017 - Video / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My crude oil in-depth analysis and concluding trend forecast for 2016 proved remarkably accurate, and so I get a lot of comments requesting a similar exercise for 2017. However my analysis has so far not lead me in the direction of the oil price, nevertheless my recent analysis on the SNP's latest call for a Scottish independence in an attempt at subverting BrExit, that eventually aim to convert into a video did include a brief look at the most probable prospects for the crude oil price for 2017 as being a significant factor with regards forecasting the outcome of the Scottish second referendum.
Sunday, March 12, 2017
Technical Update for Crude Oil: Brent and WTI / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: MarketsToday
Highlights: Brent Crude
- Brent has been progressing upwards in an ascending trend channel for a number of months
- Last week it broke down sharply from a tight symmetrical triangle or pennant pattern and through support of the 50-day exponential moving average (ema) before finding support around the 50-week ema and the 200-day ema. The low for the week was 51.18.
- Brent is now likely to either:
- bounce from here back up towards the breakdown level around 55.00 to test it as resistance, before turning back down, or
- relatively quickly continue the descent to lower support levels
Wednesday, March 08, 2017
Is A Second OPEC Oil Cut On The Cards? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
OPEC’s coordinated effort to curtail global supply has so far managed to put a floor under oil prices, which have been sitting modestly above US$50 since the deal was announced at the end of November last year. But resurging U.S. shale has been capping the upside, and Brent has not breached US$58 per barrel. Analysts and experts are now mostly predicting that oil prices will remain below US$60 this year.
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Saturday, March 04, 2017
Oil Market - You Won't Get a Clearer Warning Than This One / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts changes that portend a "brutal decline" in both the oil and precious metals markets.
This quick update on oil is to point out that the latest oil COTs and Hedgers positions were at frightening extremes, as oil has struggled and failed, thus far, to break higher. This is viewed as meaning trouble—BIG TROUBLE—for the oil market, where we could see a precipitous drop as in 2014.
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Wednesday, March 01, 2017
Next Crude Oil Price Rally? Futures Say Market Is Tightening / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
U.S. oil inventories are at record levels, but there are a few glimmers of hope that the glut could be starting to subside.
Storing crude oil for sale at a later date is no longer profitable, as the futures curve has flattened out in recent weeks, depriving traders of a strategy that has served them well over the past few years. The market “contango,” in which front-month oil contracts trade at a discount to oil futures six months or a year out, has all but vanished. The differential must be large enough to cover the cost of storage, and for many time spreads that is no longer the case. After three years of a steep contango, storing oil simply to take advantage of the time spreads is increasingly uneconomical.
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Tuesday, February 21, 2017
Buy Zones in an Crude Oil Bull Market / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in energy market, noting a major buy signal.