Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Nowhere To Run, Nowhere To Hide – Cash Is King, Not Gold / Politics / Pandemic
By: Kelsey_Williams
Amidst the fallout of stock markets crashing worldwide, gold (silver, too) and oil imploding, and the scare of coronavirus, the dollar itself stands tall. That is not what some were expecting. Nevertheless, unrealistic expectations abound today, so let’s see what we can learn from this.
When investors sell en masse, they generally turn to cash as a resting place for their money. Cash for most people today still means US dollars. This implies an increase in demand for US dollars. Gold investors and their advisors seem to have been expecting just the opposite.
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Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Coronavirus - Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself / Politics / Pandemic
By: James_Quinn
“So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is…fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and of vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. And I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days.”- Franklin D. Roosevelt – March 4, 1933
Franklin D. Roosevelt spoke these words during his first inauguration at the depths of the Great Depression in 1933. The narrative taught in government schools is how FDR’s words invigorated the nation and inspired the people to show courage in the face of adversity. His terminology was that of a general leading his troops into battle.
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Tuesday, March 17, 2020
US and UK Coronavirus Containment Incompetence Resulting Catastrophic Trend Trajectories / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The answer as to why the stock market is delivering 10% blood baths virtually every other trading day since the western world were awoken to the full spectrum horrific consequences of the Coronavirus early March, after having ignored what took place first in China and then large chunks of Asia, likely due to a false sense of superiority. Whilst I have often voiced since early February that we won't find the answers to which way stocks are likely to trend by looking at the price charts. After all back in early Feb the stock market initially shrugged off Coronavirus China news and duly marched to new all time highs! And then continued to remain largely suspended in a state of denial until the cookie started to crumble early March and true panic set in far beyond anything anyone could have imagined at the time.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
UK Entering Coronavirus Mass Deaths Stage, Schools Remain Open to Spread Herd Immunity / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of the daily change in the number of infected, the UK appears to have pulled off a minor miracle as today's increase in the number of infected was substantially lower than yesterdays, only recording 152 new cases at 9am this morning against a rise of 330 yesterday. So has the UK pulled of a Coronavirus miracle? I'm afraid not because last Thursday the Government announced that it would STOP TESTING ALL THOSE INFECTED who were told to self quarantine at home and now would only be testing those who actually end up ill in hospital, which would estimate to be between 12% to 20% of those who are infected. This is AGAINST WHO recommendations of how to fight the pandemic, a message of TEST, TEST, TEST!
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Monday, March 16, 2020
Containing the Coronavirus: Chinese lessons / Politics / Pandemic
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite containment in China, international response against the coronavirus has been lagging. So, what can be learned from the Chinese experience?As the novel coronavirus is globalizing, the very nature of the outbreak – which the World Health Organization (WHO) has now declared a global pandemic – is changing.
As the early imported cases are now being augmented with local transmissions, the novel coronavirus outbreak has moved into a new, more serious phase. That’s why March will be the critical month worldwide.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
Coronavirus HERD IMMUNITY, UK Schools NOT CLOSED as Government Follows Mad Scientist Advice / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
The UK Governments Chief Scientific Advisor let slip the Boris Johnson Governments cunning plan to combat the Coronavirus pandemic. Apparently the plan is not to follow what every other nation is doing in attempting to contain outbreaks but instead the scientists have convinced Boris Johnson to adopt the "HERD IMMUNITY" Protocol. Which is that once at least 60% of the population has become INFECTED with the virus then they would develop an immunity and thus no longer spread the virus onto the remaining 40% or so of the population.
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Saturday, March 14, 2020
US Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Trend Forecast Update - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So President Trump has finally stopped referring to the Coronavirus as being fake new. This week saw the US go into full blown Coronavirus panic mode, not just in response to the series of daily stock market crashes as the markets scrambled to discount a trend that I have been warning the probability of since early February. But that the US tally of infections and deaths has now started to go parabolic, which is not because of newly infected but rather that the US programme for Coronavirus has been abysmally poor that has sown the seeds for the catastrophe that is about it take place which will manifest in a Case Fatality rate far in excess of the South Korea's 0.7% , to probably nearer to 3%.
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Saturday, March 14, 2020
UK Government Implements Coronavirus Herd Immunity Protocol, Plans for 1.4 Million Covid-19 Deaths / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK Governments Chief Scientific Advisor let slip the Boris Johnson Governments cunning plan to combat the Coronavirus pandemic. Apparently the plan is not to follow what every other nation is doing in attempting to contain outbreaks but instead the scientists have convinced Boris Johnson to adopt the "HERD IMMUNITY" Protocol. Which is that once at least 60% of the population has become INFECTED with the virus then they would develop an immunity and thus no longer spread the virus onto the remaining 40% or so of the population.
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Friday, March 13, 2020
UK Government Adopts "Herd Immunity" Protocol, Targeting 60% Infected and Upto 2 million Deaths / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK Governments Chief Scientific Advisor let slip the Boris Johnson Governments cunning plan to combat the Coronavirus pandemic. Apparently the plan is not to follow what every other nation is doing in attempting to contain outbreaks but instead the scientists have convinced Boris Johnson to adopt the "HERD IMMUNITY" Protocol. Which is that once at least 60% of the population has become INFECTED with the virus then they would develop an immunity and thus no longer spread the virus onto the remaining 40% or so of the population.
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Friday, March 13, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - 13th March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.
The UK government is finally starting to take the Coronavirus seriously adopting a series of panic response such as a £30 billion Coronavirus combating spending spree, trying to inflate an economy that is teetering on the brink of Coronavirus recession as global trade and consumer activity slows sharply.
The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to go parabolic, exceeding my trend trajectory by 173% due to increasing community spread.
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Friday, March 13, 2020
US Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Trend Forecast - 13th March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.
My US trend forecast is for 13,000 infected by the end of March resulting in about 180 deaths. Though I have often warned that the actual number will turn out to be significantly higher because of lack of US action to take the Coronavirus seriously enough, where many are still shrugging it off as being not that much worse than the flu such as President Trump. Instead at best it is at least 15 times as deadly as the flu, and depending on quality of healthcare response could be 100 times as deadly.
The latest infections data has the number of infected literally going parabolic, soaring by 351 to 1,680 to well above my trend forecast.
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Friday, March 13, 2020
Coronavirus Infections Outside China Going Parabolic - Trend Forecast 13th March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.
The latest official infections data, which despite a proper record of Africa and the South Central America's numbers has the number of infected literally going parabolic, soaring by 8,400 to 54,00 to well abo ve my trend forecast that projects to an official tally of 129,250 infections outside China by 31st March 2020.
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Thursday, March 12, 2020
UK and US Entering Coronavirus Pandemic Storm Stage / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.
The UK and US continue to scramble to REACT to the unfolding Coronavirus pandemic as governments and health officials have effectively been sat on their asses for the WHOLE of February, DONE NOTHING! LEARNED NOTHING from China, LEARNED NOTHING from South Korea that I held up as a model for what the West should follow so as to prevent a catastrophic case fatality rate of as high as 3.5%! Whilst following South Korea's example offered a case fatality rate of about 0.64%, far less than China's as I covered in the following key articles and subsquent videos:
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Sunday, March 08, 2020
UK Coronavirus PANIC Buying Begins! Empty Supermarket Shelves of Toilet Rolls and Hand Sanitisers / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
UK panic buying that began mid last week has continued to accelerate during the weekend, with shoppers spending the weekend busy stripping supermarket shelves bare as the number of coronavirus infections starts to go parabolic, which has claimed its first UK deaths as the total number of cases across the UK jumps to over 276. The Department of Health confirmed the deadly bug is spreading at its fastest rate yet as over 60 people testing positive on Saturday 24 hours.
Here we go on an a preppers style shopping trip to our local Tesco supermarket in Sheffield to stock up in advance of the looming Coronavirus storm only to find many shelves had already been stripped bare, and it is unlikely that Supermarkets have enough stocks to meet demands for many items such as hand sanitisers and toilet rolls and pasta, anything basically with a long shelf life.
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Sunday, March 08, 2020
UK CORONAVIRUS WARNING - All Schools to Close Next Week for 6 Months! / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
Here is a reminder of our expectations that ALL UK schools could close by the end of next week as the the calm before the storm stage is now over as the UK sees the number of infections start to go parabolic, likely to pass 300 today (Sunday). My forecast of 14th Feb 2020 concluded in the infected to trend to 5000 by the end of March resulting in 90 deaths. Analysis of what is happening in South Korea illustrates that outbreaks tend to be explosive, soon jumping from 1 to 1000 infected in a matter of days, which is likely the pattern to expect in the UK, that I am sure will prompt emergency, even panic response such as cancellation of virtually all public events, schools, universities and colleges being closed, and infected hot spots being quarantined, all likely to start taking place by Mid March, as I first warned to expect to happen over 3 weeks ago. And that Britain's schools could remain close for 6 months until September!
So watch the video so that we are all prepared for when the inevitable outbreaks start taking place across all of Britain's major cities, Birmingham, Manchester, Sheffield, London, Leeds etc.
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Saturday, March 07, 2020
Coronavirus Straightforward Calculations on COVID-19 Risks / Politics / Pandemic
By: Submissions
Daniel Nevins writes: As recently as two weeks ago, it wasn’t clear which infectious disease experts had the best handle on COVID-19’s likely path.
Among the optimists, one operation ran a model in February that showed the following maximum case counts by the “end of the epidemic.” (I’ve included the running case tally as well, using data from the Johns Hopkins dashboard.)
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Saturday, March 07, 2020
How Deadly is the Coronavirus? Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 1 of 2 of my latest analysis that seeks to convert the unfolding Coronavirus Pandemic into a stock market trend forecast, a pandemic that increasingly looks likely to be the worst the world has faced since the 1918 Spanish flu that killed an estimated 10% of the world's population. Thankfully, so far this virus looks set kill less than 1/10th that of the Spanish flu, still extremely deadly that the markets are NOT fully discounting the consequences of and that the virus could mutate into an even deadlier strain that it has already done at least once to date ( S type into L type).
Just how deadly is the Coronavirus? For the answer to that we look to the case fatality rate across a number of infected countries with differing capabilities in their ability to test for infections and then to compare against the conclusion of my analysis of 21st February that took into account serious under reporting in the numbers infected in China, probably to a magnitude of at least X7 that concluded in a probable Coronavirus case fatality rate of 0.64% which if accurate would make the Covid-19 about 15 times as deadly as the seasonal flu.
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Saturday, March 07, 2020
UK Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Supermarket Shelves - Preppers Tesco Shopping Trip Sheffield / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
Britian's more clued in shoppers have been busy stripping supermarket shelves bare as the number of coronavirus infections starts to go parabolic, which has claimed its first UK death. A second coronavirus victim is feared to have died at a hospital in Milton Keynes as the total number of cases across the UK jumps to 163. The Department of Health confirmed the deadly bug is spreading at its fastest rate yet as a total of 47 people tested positive in the last 24 hours.
Here we go on an a preppers style shopping trip to our local Tesco supermarket in Sheffield to stock up in advance of the looming Coronavirus storm only to find many shelves have already been stripped bare, and it is unlikely that Supermarkets have enough stocks to meet demands for many items such as hand sanitisers.
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Friday, March 06, 2020
How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 1 of 2 of my latest analysis that seeks to convert the unfolding Coronavirus Pandemic into a stock market trend forecast, a pandemic that increasingly looks likely to be the worst the world has faced since the 1918 Spanish flu that killed an estimated 10% of the world's population. Thankfully, so far this virus looks set kill less than 1/10th that of the Spanish flu, still extremely deadly that the markets are NOT fully discounting the consequences of and that the virus could mutate into an even deadlier strain that it has already done at least once to date ( S type into L type).
Just how deadly is the Coronavirus? For the answer to that we look to the case fatality rate across a number of infected countries with differing capabilities in their ability to test for infections and then to compare against the conclusion of my analysis of 21st February that took into account serious under reporting in the numbers infected in China, probably to a magnitude of at least X7 that concluded in a probable Coronavirus case fatality rate of 0.64% which if accurate would make the Covid-19 about 15 times as deadly as the seasonal flu.
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Thursday, March 05, 2020
Coronavirus Pandemic Going Parabolic, US and UK COVID19 Infections Forecasts / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest infections data for the world excluding China, which despite a proper record of Africa and the South Central America's numbers has the number of infected literally going parabolic, soaring by over 1735 overnight to 10,298 to well above my trend forecast that projects to an official tally of 129,250 infections outside China by the end of March 2020.
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