Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, March 01, 2020
South Korea Coronavirus COVID-19 WARNING - R0 4.6 Infection Spread Rate! / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Reliable South Korean data warns of literally exponential spread of the coronavirus in the early days of outbreaks, where R0 rather than being 2 to 2.6 as being the consensus view instead South Korean data calculates R0 to 4.6! Literally explosive growth in the number of infections before a nations healthcare system is able to respond, this explosive early growth is likely as a consequence that those infected can be asymptomatic for between 3 and 7 days and a few super spreads for as many as 14 days! Who unbeknown are literally infecting dozens of people per day who themselves go onto infect several each..
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Saturday, February 29, 2020
South Korea Coronavirus WARNING - R0 4.6 Outbreak Infection Rate! / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Coronavirus pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket ever higher, now totaling 2931 infected and 17 deaths, this despite deploying immense resources towards containment. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases, whilst reports continue of mass cremations taking place.
Therefore given the reliability of South Korea's monitoring and systems, then the outbreak in this nation is likely more accurately reflects what to expect in terms of outbreaks in the West than China's statistics that everyone now agrees have grossly under reported the true number of infections AND deaths by several magnitudes. In fact China's statistics are modeled on an outbreak starting Mid January rather than early December! And thus my recent in-depth analysis concluded that Chinese reported cases are under reported by at least X7, and deaths by X2.
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Thursday, February 27, 2020
Trump or Sanders? Both will pile up the Debt / Politics / US Debt
By: Richard_Mills
Whether it’s a Democrat or a Republican installed in the White House this November, you can count on fiscal discipline going out the window. Neither the incumbent, President Donald J. Trump, nor the leading Democratic contender to replace him, Bernie Sanders, appears to give a hoot about shoveling more onto the enormous pile of debt that a few months ago shot past $23 trillion.
Why does this matter? Because debt impedes economic growth . And just like a business, if a country isn’t growing, it’s dying.
Keep that in mind as we explain how the real problem with the US economy, and what is driving gold prices ever higher, is not the coronavirus (though Covid-19 is certainly making things worse), but the 500-pound debt gorilla that is sitting on Uncle Sam’s chest, fattened by an all-you-can-eat buffet of dollar-denominated debt.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2020
South Korea Coronavirus Outbreak Data Analysis Warning Rate of Infection is Exponential! / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest Coronavirus / COVID19 pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket ever higher, now totaling 1261 infected and 12 deaths, this despite deploying immense resources towards containment. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases, whilst reports continue of mass cremations taking place.
Therefore given the reliability of South Korea's monitoring and systems, then the outbreak in this nation is likely a more accurately reflect of what for outbreaks in the West than China's statistics, that everyone now agrees have grossly under reported the true number of infections AND deaths by several magnitudes. Where my recent in-depth analysis concluded that Chinese reported cases are under reported by at least X7, and deaths by X2.
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Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 infected Patients, UK / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
So the UK government relocated 38 people from onboard the coronavirus infested Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Japan to Britain, who despite being in quarantine for 2 weeks, and supposedly NOT infected however when landing in Britain many tested positive, and so instead treating the infected at a remote facility so as to limit the risk of exposure to the general population, the government disbursed them to the very heart of Britians largest cities such as Sheffield, where the Royal Hallamshire Hospital situated at the very heart of Sheffield is now host to 2 infected patients!
It's mindless actions such as this which ensures that Britain is going to have a Coronavirus epidemic because it is clear 2 weeks quarantine is NOT enough, that and our government is bloody incompetent!
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Sunday, February 23, 2020
CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest Coronavirus / COVID19 pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket higher, now totaling over 600 infected and 6 deaths. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases! This whilst reports of mass cremations taking place.
Meanwhile in Europe, Italy has an outbreak under way with over 100 testing positive and 2 deaths with several hundred thousands of people put under quarantine, a taste of what is to come to Europe as the virus is clearly not being contained. This whilst western health care institutions such as the NHS following the Chinese playbook of painting a picture of being fully prepared to cope with outbreaks. Despite the fact that the NHS can barely cope with regular flu let alone a virus that is 15X more deadly resulting in 100X as many seriously ill patients than influenza.
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Friday, February 21, 2020
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We in the West are in still the CALM before the Coronavirus STORM stage, both in terms of infections and in terms of economic impact as we witness China's economy effectively grind to a halt, a harbinger of what to expect to come that the financial markets are STILL NOT discounting! For China's Coronavirus statistics grossly under report the number of infections by several multiples that this analysis will attempt to determine the true magnitude of China's outbreak which even the Chinese CDC now admits that their statistics are under reporting by significant degree the actual number of infected. Which has not just been my consistent view since the Coronavirus story first broke a month ago, but many scientists around the world have questioned China's data as measured across several metrics such as the unrealistic day to day change in infection numbers that for want of a better word were unnatural.
Basically China cannot test all suspected cases for the virus, instead only those who make into hospital tend to get tested, and thus excluding all those who either don't turn up to hospital i.e. told to self quarantine at home or are turned away from hospitals because there is no capacity to deal with more people clogging up the corridors, that and the tendency to brush bad news under the carpet then be reasonable for passing it up the command chain.
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Thursday, February 20, 2020
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
Unfortunately the Coronavirus storm is going to come to every nation, including the UK which is currently in the calm before the storm stage, perhaps become a little complacent due to the virus having been contained to date, all whilst the virus continues to spread globally courtesy of infected Chinese travelers escaping the peoples republic of China.
This video details strategies for preventing catching the virus in the first instance, and strategies for boosting ones immune system, so that if infected we won't be one of the unlucky 20% who need hospitalisation following infection.
So watch the video so that we are all prepared for when the inevitable outbreaks start taking place across Britain's cities, Birmingham, Manchester, Sheffield, London.
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Wednesday, February 19, 2020
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic / Politics / Pandemic
By: HGR
This video detals how to protect ourselves from the coming Coronavirus strom and unfortunately as the video also explains, COVID-19 IS coming to ALL nations. We outside of asia are probably no more than a couple of weeks away from when the Coronavirus pandemic starts to inflict damage on our soeciety and economy as we have been witnessing take place in China as the virus outbreaks take hold.
Two strategies are deployed, the first being to reduce risks of becoming infected. And the second is to prepare the way to survive the virus if infected with as mild an illness as possible.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2020
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
In Part One of this article I exposed the numerous false narratives being peddled to the masses, as this Fourth Turning is entering the intense phase headed towards an unknown climax.
I’ve been expecting the next shoe to fall in this Fourth Turning for years, but the financial elite have pulled the debt levers to keep the Ponzi scheme alive far longer than a reasonable person would expect. We are only six weeks into 2020 and it seems like a year’s worth of major events have already occurred. The year started with the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in Iraq.
For the next week the world was awash in rhetoric about World War III and possible revolution in Iran. Accusations of Trump using the Wag the Dog method to deflect the negative press from the impeachment hearings were rampant among the half of the country that despises Trump. Soleimani was lauded as a hero by the left and a terrorist by the right. Now, the entire episode seems like ancient history, as more interesting squirrels have arisen for the propaganda media to chase.
The entire month of January was occupied by the ongoing coup/impeachment against Donald Trump. Schiff, Nadler and Pelosi doing their best impression of the three stooges, conducted a laughable prosecution in the House, revealing this was nothing more than a desperate attempt to avoid losing to Trump in a November landslide. The predictable trial in the Senate resulted in an acquittal and Trump’s popularity soaring to all-time highs, as independents realized the Democrats misused the power of impeachment for purely political purposes. Trump’s SOTU address infuriated Pelosi to such an extent it provoked her into acting like a petulant child, tearing up the speech. Future campaign ads wrote themselves.
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Saturday, February 15, 2020
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This week the people of Britain got a taste for how the Coronavirus epidemic is going to break out in the UK. As apparently a Chinese woman infected with the Coronavirus virus flew from China to the UK before she was put into quarantine in China, boarded a flight to the UK, with no regard to the risks of infecting fellow passengers on the plane. No regard to the staff and the thousands of passengers at Heathrow airport.
Where instead of declaring that she was infected with the killer virus on arrival, went through customs and border control, exited the airport and then proceeded to take a Uber taxi without regard to the driver and his family or the other passengers who would ride in the Uber after her, to the nearby Lewisham hospital . Walking into the A&E department without regard to the staff and patients sat there, effectively declaring that I am ill with Coronavirus so give me treatment!
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Friday, February 14, 2020
The Growing Weaponization of Space / Politics / US Military
By: Richard_Mills
In his recent State of the Union address, President Trump gave a shout-out to space exploration, highlighting the newly-created Space Force branch of the US Military, and NASA’s Artemis program of crewed lunar exploration. Artemis aims to put astronauts on the moon by 2024 (the first time since the 1972 Apollo mission), and use the lunar surface to train for missions to Mars in the 2030s.
“In reaffirming our heritage as a free nation, we must remember that America has always been a frontier nation. Now we must embrace the next frontier: America’s manifest destiny in the stars,” Trump said during the nearly 80-minute speech. “I am asking Congress to fully fund the Artemis program to ensure that the next man and first woman on the moon will be American astronauts, using this as a launching pad to ensure that America is the first nation to plant its flag on Mars.”
While Trump has made peaceful space exploration a priority of his administration, what he probably hadn’t reckoned on was seeding the next generation of US weaponry that will help to fuel an arms race among the most advanced space programs. Indeed beyond the atmosphere of planet earth, and the range of the naked eye, an impressive arsenal of weapons have been, and are continuing to be developed, for a new theater of war.
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Friday, February 14, 2020
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This week the people of Britain got a taste for how the Coronavirus epidemic is going to break out in the UK. As apparently a Chinese woman infected with the Coronavirus flew from China to the UK before she was put into quarantine in China, boarded a flight to the UK, with no regard to the risks of infecting fellow passengers on the plane. No regard to the staff and the thousands of passengers at Heathrow airport.
Where instead of declaring that she was infected with the killer virus on arrival, went through customs and border control, exited the airport and then proceeded to take a Uber taxi without regard to the driver and his family or the other passengers who would ride in the Uber after her, to the nearby Lewisham hospital . Walking into the A&E department without regard to the staff and patients sat there, effectively declaring that I am ill with Coronavirus so give me treatment!
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Thursday, February 13, 2020
China Coronavirus Infections Soar by 1/3rd to 60,000, Deaths Jump to 1,367 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Chinese communist regime's propaganda of the past week of having brought the Coronavirus outbreak under control by referring to daily falling infection rates from a peak of about 4,500 to 2000 has now been completely blown away following the declaration of a huge 33% jump in the number of infections (15,000) totalling 60,000 today! Also the number of deaths has jumped sharply higher to 1369 from 1115.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2020
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections, Africa and South America Hidden Outbreaks / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China continues to lock down cities in an attempt to halt the spread of Coronavirus as apparently the virus can spread as an aerosol spray which would make it far more infectious than previously thought, which if true explains why passengers quarantined in their cabins on board the Diamond Princess in Japan are continuing to become infected, with the total now at 175 infected passengers and crew.
All this whilst official Chinese infections and deaths statistics appear to have hit a plateau with China reporting a falling rate of infection (+2000). But it's not a question of whether we should believe any statistics coming out of a totalitarian state where what the government states to be the facts are to be believed to be so under threat of punishment, rather it is also likely that propaganda is being coupled with the fact that the China is hitting capacity constraints in it's ability to diagnose infected persons or the cause of deaths as a consequence of Coronavirus, where actual cases presented beyond a certain number are either being rejected by the system or literally cremated as the dead are so as to prevent the spread of the virus.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2020
China Under Reporting Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections by 66% Due to Capacity Constraints / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
China continues to lock down cities in an attempt to halt the spread of Coronavirus as apparently the virus can spread as an aerosol spray which would make it far more infectious than previously thought, which if true explains why passengers quarantined in their cabins on board the Diamond Princess in Japan are continuing to become infected, with the total now at 175 infected passengers and crew.
All this whilst official Chinese infections and deaths statistics appear to have hit a plateau with China reporting a falling rate of infection (+2000). But it's not a question of whether we should believe any statistics coming out of a totalitarian state where what the government states to be the facts are to be believed to be so under threat of punishment, rather it is also likely that propaganda is being coupled with the fact that the China is hitting capacity constraints in it's ability to diagnose infected persons or the cause of deaths as a consequence of Coronavirus, where actual cases presented beyond a certain number are either being rejected by the system or literally cremated as the dead are so as to prevent the spread of the virus.
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Tuesday, February 11, 2020
CoronaVirus Pandemic Stocks Bear Market Risk 2020? - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is confounding growing Coronavirus fears by recovering all of the late January's drop in the wake of Coronavirus news out of China that started global alarm bells ringing of what could transpire right across the world. The Dow retraced all of its drop from 29400 to 28200 to Thursday's high of 29408, a new all time high! Clearly where the markets are concerned it's a case of virus? What virus? So discounting the Coronavirus as background noise, unlikely to have any significant economic or market events outside of a few cities in China, are the markets wrong?
That and the Democrats busted flush Impeachment of Trump that clearly did not have a hope in hells chances of succeeding given that the Democrats only managed to convince 1 Republican senator (Mick Romney) to vote for Impeachment, so reduced political uncertainties resolves in market calm before the Coronavirus storm? Find out as I chart the prospects for the Dow's trend over the next couple of months.
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Monday, February 10, 2020
The US Constitution IS the Crisis / Politics / US Politics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
A Review of Murray N. Rothbard’s Conceived in Liberty, Vol. 5
The posthumous release of Murray Rothbard’s fifth volume of his early American history series, Conceived in Liberty, is a cause of celebration not only for those interested in the country’s constitutional period, but also for the present day as the nation is faced with acute social, economic, and political crises. The fifth volume, The New Republic: 1784-1791, stands with Boston T. Party’s 1997 release, Hologram of Liberty, as a grand rebuttal of the cherished notion held by most contemporary scholars, pundits on the Right, and, surprisingly, many libertarians who believe that the US Constitution is some great bulwark in defense of individual liberty and a promoter of economic success.
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Wednesday, February 05, 2020
China Building Coronavirus Infections Concentration Camps Rather than Hospitals - Pandemic Day 57 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As of today the World, mostly China has 20,450 confirmed cases of Coronavirus infections. Where the UK's tally currently stands at 3 as Friday's number of 2 was increased by 1 following the UK flying in infected persons from Wuhan. Though likely there are more than a dozen unreported infections in the UK courtesy of 120,000 Chinese students. Whilst those that say that the Coronavirus is over hyped and not that worst than the usual winter flu do not understand that the Coronavirus death rate of 2.1% is about 200 TIMES more deadly than the usual winter flu! That and 200 times as many people falling seriously ill and thus overwhelming healthcare systems!
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Tuesday, February 04, 2020
Coronavirus Targeting 1.14 million Infections, 24,000 Deaths by End February - Global Pandemic Day 57 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As of today the World, mostly China has 20,450 confirmed cases of Coronavirus infections. Where the UK's tally currently stands at 3 as Friday's number of 2 was increased by 1 following the UK flying in infected persons from Wuhan. Though likely there are more than a dozen unreported infections in the UK courtesy of 120,000 Chinese students. Whilst those that say that the Coronavirus is over hyped and not that worst than the usual winter flu do not understand that the Coronavirus death rate of 2.1% is about 200 TIMES more deadly than the usual winter flu! That and 200 times as many people falling seriously ill and thus overwhelming healthcare systems!
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