Category: Inflation
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
Consumer Prices: A Sticky Situation / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
We have noted anecdotally that there is a creeping inflation in the system. It does not show up in commodities, which are in a post-bubble (ah, the good old ‘China story’ that was so vigorously promoted to a degree that would make a gold bug promoter blush) melt down. Crashing costs like that are providing the Goldilocks-like balance to rising costs within the economy.
This morning, the highly recommended Daily Shot had among its macro graphs a look at the “sticky” consumer price index. That got me to go over to the St. Louis Fed website and pull a couple different views of it. First, here is SLF’s description of the sticky index…
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Wednesday, November 18, 2015
U.S. Inflation Setup to Upset / Economics / Inflation
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Is U.S. inflation setup to upset the markets? Motivation for considering this question begins with graph to right. Plotted in that chart is the year-to-year percentage change for the median U.S. CPI. That measure is calculated monthly by the diligent elves at Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Period of time for chart is past ten years.
Friday, October 02, 2015
Money Supply and the Fed’s Serious Inflation Risks / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Zeal_LLC
Traders today universally believe inflation is dead, that there is no persistent decline in the purchasing power of money. That’s what government price indexes around the world are indicating. But this false notion is one of recent years’ main Fed-conjured illusions. Price inflation is the result of rising money supplies, and they have been skyrocketing. Serious risks are mounting that they will spill into price levels.
As simple as money seems, it is very complex in both theory and practice. We all understand the idea of working to earn money to buy goods and services. But the seminal treatise on money, the legendary economist Ludwig von Mises’ “The Theory of Money and Credit” published in 1912, weighed in at 445 pages! Money is a topic that endlessly preoccupies elite central bankers with doctorates in economics.
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Friday, August 21, 2015
US BreakEven Inflation at 5-Year Lows / Economics / Inflation
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Neither higher than expected Philly Fed survey at 8.3 in August nor a dovish set of FOMC minutes has managed to ease the onslaught of selling in global equities. The old trick that a dovish Fed and poor data are good for stocks is no longer valid. An uncertain Fed drove down chances of a Sept Fed hike to 36% from close to 50% earlier in the week. Meanhwile, stock indices deepen their selloffs well after a series of DeathCrosses emerged in the S&P500, Dow-30, Dax-30, FTSE-100 and Shanghai Composite. which may suggest that they require the Fed to firmly shut the door on any 2015 rate cut.
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Thursday, August 20, 2015
Inflation - Don’t Be Fooled By Our Current Price Stability / Economics / Inflation
By: Frank_Shostak
The yearly rate of growth of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index adjusted for food and energy stood at 1.3 percent in June — the same figure as in May. Note that on average since the beginning of this year the yearly rate of growth stood at 1.3 percent. Many economists have expressed satisfaction that the yearly rate of growth has been stable so far notwithstanding that it stood below the Fed’s target of 2 percent.
Sunday, August 16, 2015
Asset-Price Inflation Enters Its Dangerous Late Phase / Economics / Inflation
By: MISES
Brendan Brown writes: Asset price inflation, a disease whose source always lies in monetary disorder, is not a new affliction. It was virtually inevitable that the present wild experimentation by the Federal Reserve — joined by the Bank of Japan and ECB — would produce a severe outbreak. And indications from the markets are that the disease is in a late phase, though still short of the final deadly stage characterized by pervasive falls in asset markets, sometimes financial panic, and the onset of recession.
Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Is Japan’s Inflation Failing? / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
We begin with NFTRH.com’s post from July 16 noting the message I got from a former associate (from my previous life as a manufacturer)…
“Just an update for you, some disturbing news has leaked out this week. Machine tool builders have put out blow out [lists] to all sales persons in the USA, not sure if world wide. Mori Seiki list has 600 to 700 machines on it WOW!!! never have i heard of such a huge list by any one Builder. Not sure what they see coming but it can’t be good.”
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Friday, July 31, 2015
Jackson Hole All About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Another FOMC statement and another swing at the law of probability. Some banks are considering the probability of a September Fed hike to be as high as 70%. Others prefer to hedge themselves with more appropriate qualitative means of referring to September as a "high probability outcome as long as....", citing the two upcoming jobs report and their average hourly earnings components. But even if the next two jobs reports are accompanied by robust hourly earnings, the inflation objective remains in doubt. We've long mentioned in previous pieces how the 20% decline in oil since early May will further retard any recovery in price growth, which has prompted the Fed to drop its phrase in the FOMC statement that "energy prices have stabilized" discussed here.
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Tuesday, June 16, 2015
Ukraine's Soaring Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
I estimate the current annual implied inflation rate in Ukraine to be 92 percent. This is the world's second-highest inflation rate, far lower than Venezuela's 480 percent but slightly higher than Syria's 75 percent.
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Sunday, June 07, 2015
EXPOSED: The Biggest Threat to Your Retirement / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Investment_U
Rachel Gearhart writes: This week, we are doing something different.
We are analyzing two charts - one that exposes a huge threat to your retirement and another that shows how you can protect yourself.
First, the bad news...
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Wednesday, May 20, 2015
UK Deflation Warning - Bank of England Economic Propaganda to Print and Inflate Debt / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
DEFLATION! The mainstream broadcast press appears to have swallowed the Bank of England's deflation economic propaganda hook line and sinker as they regurgitate the dangers of deflation following release of UK CPI inflation for April of -0.1% prompting headline grabbing warnings of the dangers of falling prices, the dangers of debt not being eroded by inflation, the dangers of people not spending as they wait for prices to fall, the dangers of ... you get the picture as the Bank of England sets the scene for their very own 007 Mark Carney to come to Britain's rescue with his magic PPK INFLATION gun, by promising that the Bank of England will keep price stability by aiming to bring the official CPI inflation rate back to 2%, and thus 007 Mark Carney saves Britain from the Spectre of Deflation.
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
Bank Holiday Joy as UK Inflation Stays Low / Personal_Finance / Inflation
By: MoneyFacts
Inflation figures released today show that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell from 0.0% to -0.1% during April, which is the first time the UK has fallen into deflation since the sixties.
Today, all 859 savings accounts on the market beat inflation, and of these, 666* (149 no notice, 78 notice, 231 fixed rate bonds and 208 ISAs) are without restrictive criteria*.
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Wednesday, May 13, 2015
The End Is Near? Peak Trophy Asset Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: John_Rubino
Stories about insane prices being paid for unique (and some not so unique) things are now a daily occurrence. A few examples:
Friday, May 01, 2015
Baltimore Inflation Riots / Politics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The following is a compilation, first published at Zero Hedge, of statements made by The Baltimore Orioles Vice President, John Angelos. It struck me as fascinating on two basic levels. First off, the stunner is that a prominent elitist has spoken a bit of truth that would ordinarily be almost unutterable among such circles. The second thing is how he ultimately gets it wrong
Thursday, April 30, 2015
The Many Failures of the CPI Consumer Price Index / Economics / Inflation
By: Mark_Thornton
Austrians oppose the whole notion of trying to accurately measure “inflation” which mainstream economists see as a general rise in prices. (Austrians view inflation as a politically engineered increase in the money supply.)
A few years ago, mainstream economists like Paul Krugman chastised the Austrians for the lack of anticipated price inflation in the economy. However, their mistake was a fixation on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If you looked around at other prices in the economy you could see higher prices in just about every other market, such as commodities, oil, gold, producer goods, real estate, and stocks.
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Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Save it or Spend it as UK Inflation Stays Put 0% / Personal_Finance / Inflation
By: MoneyFacts
Inflation figures released today show that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) stuck at 0.0% during March.
Today all 874 savings accounts on the market beat inflation, and out of these 681* (149 no notice, 79 notice, 243 fixed rate bonds and 210 ISAs) are without restrictive criteria*.
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Friday, April 03, 2015
Is the CPI Telling Us the Full Story on Inflation? / Economics / Inflation
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes: You can't fully trust economic statistics...
As I explained in yesterday's essay, measuring the economy is difficult. Very difficult. And in a sense, there are no "real" numbers.
But the official measures of inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), or employment aren't the result of some conspiracy agenda. And a close look at GDP data confirms the economy is still slowly recovering from the financial crisis.
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Thursday, April 02, 2015
The Great Inflation Canard / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Charles W. Calomiris and Peter Ireland, two distinguished economists and friends, wrote an edifying piece in The Wall Street Journal on 19 February 2015. That said, their article contains a great inflation canard.
They write that “Fed officials should remind markets that monetary policy takes time to work its way through the economy—what Milton Friedman famously referred to as “long and variable lags”—and on inflation.” That’s now a canard.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Zero UK CPI Inflation Rate Prompts Deflation Danger Propaganda For Fresh Money Printing / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Zero 0.0% CPI inflation not seen for 50 years as the continuation of the consequences of the collapse in crude oil prices that continue to stagnate below $50. And that despite falling unemployment wages are being suppressed as a continuing consequences of out of control immigration as workers continue to flood into the UK from across the economically depressed euro-zone. Whilst the mainstream press continues to warn of the dangers of outright deflation as CPI is expected to nudge below 0% and describe how this is bad for the economy as people put off consuming today in the anticipation of lower prices tomorrow. Meanwhile RPI, which is the closest thing to real inflation slid to 1% (1.1%) and is set against the real demand adjusted UK inflation rate of 1.5%.
Saturday, March 14, 2015
An Austrian take on Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Alasdair_Macleod
We know that today’s macroeconomists are very confused about inflation, if only because despite all experience they think they can print money and increase bank credit with a view to generating price inflation at a controlled 2% rate. Admittedly, most of them will acknowledge there is more hope than reality about the controlled bit. Economic policy should be based on more than just hope.