Analysis Topic: Election Oracle
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Rotherham Election Frenzy, UKIP Fostering Scandal, Campaigning Gets Dirtier by the day / ElectionOracle / UK Politics
By: N_Walayat
The national press is abuzz with reports that suggests could significantly impact on the Rotherham by-election, as the frenzy of activity continues to intensify on breaking news of UKIP playing their Trump card in an attempt to garner votes in the final few days of campaigning left ahead of Thursdays vote.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Rotherham By-election Who Will Win? Hospice CEO, Journalist or a Priest? / ElectionOracle / UK Politics
By: N_Walayat
Rotherham voters are counting down towards the 29th of November Parliamentary by-election for their next Rotherham MP that was called following the resignation of the disgraced expenses fiddling Labour MP Denis MacShane who was found guilty of submitting false invoices totaling £7,500, but was protected from criminal prosecution under Parliamentary privilege.
Friday, November 16, 2012
All PCC Election Results, Record Low Turnouts, Birth of Illegitimate Police and Crime Commissioners / ElectionOracle / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Expectations for disastrously low turnouts for England and Wales PCC elections have materialised as the general public whole heartedly rejects the policy for political interference in British policing. Turnouts are averaging at just 15%, with the winning candidates typically being elected with less than 7% of the electorate and some with less than 4%. Additionally many of the westminister dinosaurs such as John Prescott were rejected by the electorate, that also saw more than ten times the number of spoilt ballots as is usually the case at UK elections.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Shaun Wright Wins SYPCC Election Gangnam Style / ElectionOracle / UK Politics
By: N_Walayat
Today is PCC election day!
Voters right across England and Wales will soon be setting off to vote for their respective Police and Crime Commissioner candidates, well about 1/6th of the electorate or 17% are actually expected to vote for what will turn out to be another disastrous Coalition Government decision which is effectively for the party of law and order to hand over control of most of England an Wales 41 Police forces to the Labour party, despite the fact that the Labour party opposed the creation of these posts until they had a light bulb moment and realised that they would win most of them.
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Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Rotherham By-election Labour Elite Betrays Local People by Dictating Outside MP / ElectionOracle / UK Politics
By: N_Walayat
Following the disgrace of the expenses fiddling Labour MP Denis MacShane exiting the scene, resulting in an by-election for the Rotherham constituency and thus offering a chance for local representation.
Yesterday, at short notice less than 6 hours ahead of the local consistency labour party's selection meeting, the Labour Elite chose to ignore ALL of the local Labour party candidates and instead only offered a choice between two candidates both of whom were from outside of the city -
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Monday, November 12, 2012
Shaun Wright Wins South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner Rubber Stamp Election! / ElectionOracle / UK Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The people of South Yorkshire will be asked this Thursday to vote for their Police and Crime Commissioner by selecting a name from a list of unknown persons that have been put forward by each of 5 political parties, which means voting will be purely along party lines which given that the Tory / Lib-Dem coalition government at mid-term is at it's maximum level of unpopularity virtually ensures that the election for South Yorkshire will purely amount to a rubber stamping exercise by the 18% or so voters who will actually turn out to vote, regardless of the fact whether the candidate is actually any good for the job or not.
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
U.S. Presidential Election Voting Machine Registers Obama Votes for Mitt Romney / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst the probability continues to strongly favour Obama being re-elected as illustrated by InTrade that allows market participants to trade the US election, which is showing a 71.3% probability for an Obama Win. However reports are coming in that at least some voting machines are miss recording votes made for Barack Obama that are being registered as votes for Mitt Romney as the below photo's of a voting machine in the tight swing state of Pennsylvania illustrates.
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
U.S. Presidential Election Polls Show a Dead Heat. Here's What They Don't Tell You / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
In what can only be described as a madcap dash for votes in key battleground states, President Barack Obama and Candidate Mitt Romney worked the crowds late into the night.
As well they should. Almost every Election 2012 poll I've seen has the candidates in a neck-and-neck race headed into today's finish line.
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Monday, November 05, 2012
The Two Great Accomplishments Obama Won’t Claim / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: Investment_U
Alexander Green writes: We can argue whether he deserves the reputation or not, but President Obama is viewed in many quarters as anti-business. Critics say his healthcare plan, regulations, mandates, and proposed tax increases stifle economic growth and prevent businesses from creating new jobs.
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Monday, November 05, 2012
Who Will Lead America Over the Next Four Years? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: Andy_Sutton
Americans will be united in heading to the polls Tuesday to determine who they want to be the next president and vice president. After months of experts, news reporters and the candidates inundating us with a barrage of facts and opinions, voters have the last word.
Monday, November 05, 2012
U.S. Presidential Election Eve Observations / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: Andy_Sutton
This is not a political publication, has never been, never will be. However, I do spend a reasonable amount of this effort analyzing policy and unfortunately, that tends to suggest that I’m open to a discourse of the individuals behind those policies. I am not. By and large political discussions are unprofitable because people are dogmatic to a fault. The idea of the ‘undecided’ voter is probably the biggest joke in all of statistical and polling history. It compares nicely to the concept of the undecided juror in the O.J. Simpson case back in 1994. Everyone had an opinion on whether O.J. was guilty or not. There were no ‘undecideds’.
Monday, November 05, 2012
What a Romney Presidency Would Mean for the Economy and the Markets / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: Graham_Summers
Yesterday we assessed the impact a second Obama term would have on the US economy and markets. Now let’s assess what impact a Romney Presidency would have on the US economy and financial markets.
For starters, Romney has already stated that he would fire Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke if he wins office. While this doesn’t represent the real shakeup that the Fed needs, it’s definitely a step in the right direction.
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Monday, November 05, 2012
2012 U.S. Presidential Election Fable / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: Ian_Fletcher
Once upon a time there was a republic.
Like many republics before and since, it was immensely proud that it was not ruled by a king. Long ago, in fact, the citizens of the republic had overthrown a king and sent him packing.
The republic, like many other republics before and since, was ruled instead by oligarchs. They had all the money. They controlled the important institutions. All the paths of success ran through the cultivation of their favor.
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Monday, November 05, 2012
U.S. Presidential Election and the Fourth Turning Generational Change Crisis / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: James_Quinn
“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe –The Fourth Turning
Sunday, November 04, 2012
VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! What you don't use, you will lose. Guaranteed! / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: Michael_T_Bucci
Too, too many essays have appeared across the political spectrums that have encouraged Americans to NOT vote on November 6. They are dead wrong!
Americans are lucky to be participating in Democracy that functions through a process called "voting"! So far, for them it remains a "right". But what rights they don't use, they will lose. Guaranteed!!!
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Sunday, November 04, 2012
U.S. Presidential Election Forecasts From Academics, Market Analysts and Mainstream Press / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The opinion polls continue to paint a picture of a close race between Obama and Romney going into the final two days of campaigning ahead of Tuesdays election. However all of the opinion polls with large margins of error of + /- 3% are further complicated by the electoral college votes system which means that the polling is increasingly focused on a handful of swing states such as Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, making it virtually impossible to gauge the probable election outcome by looking at these polls, thus the general public is looking towards informed opinions of academics with their back tested models (Uni Professors), market analysts (me), and mainstream media (such as News Papers), therefore this article seeks to present the views from each category in terms of evaluating the probable election outcome.
Saturday, November 03, 2012
Is Barack Obama the Manchurian Candidate ? / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: John_Rolls
Anonymous Author : I’ve suspected for some time that he’s a “Manchurian Candidate,” but it wasn’t clear for whom until recently. Everyone’s been thinking he just a socialist, but it’s worse than that, if I’m right, and I hope I’m not. Picture the following scenario:
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Friday, November 02, 2012
Manipulated U.S. Jobs Report Good for Obama / ElectionOracle / Unemployment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Initial Reaction and Election Impact
The establishment report of +171,000 jobs was above what most expected. Hurricane Sandy had no effect. The BLS finished gathering stats before the hurricane hit. This report will likely be viewed as favorable for the president.
On the surface, and in detail, this is the best jobs report in quite a while. Jobs gained were full-time jobs for a change. I do not attribute this report to BLS manipulation.
Friday, November 02, 2012
Vote Obama to Help the Gold Price! / ElectionOracle / Gold and Silver 2012
By: Jan_Skoyles
Who will you vote for next week? Romney or Obama? Democrat or Republican? It’s not a great choice, we admit, but someone will have to win and one sure thing is it will either be Romney or Obama, Republican or Democrat.
Luckily, most of us here at The Real Asset Company don’t have to vote next Tuesday but we have been thinking about who we would prefer. We could have thought about foreign relations, national security or even which had the nicest smile, but considering we’re in the business of gold investment we’ve been making our judgements based on the gold price and how the next US Presidency will affect it.
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Friday, November 02, 2012
Europe Makes Obama Look Good, But That's Not The Whole Story / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2012
By: Raul_I_Meijer
If it hadn't been in the pocket yet, Sandy cast Obama’s victory in stone (unless he really screws up Staten Island, perhaps, or Diebold goes nuts). Not that he really needed it anymore, the economic numbers are simply not bad enough. Or perhaps we should say the public perception of the numbers isn't bad enough. Not for America to go against a long running historical trend that says incumbents with relatively good numbers get re-elected, no matter how much further the country been plunging down the absurd theater scale from bi-partisan to bi-polar in the past 4 years. Or 8, 12, 20, take your pick.