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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Election Oracle

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

General Election Forecast 2015 Stealth Economic Boom - Why Opinion Polls are WRONG! / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Opinion polls for the past month and earlier have consistently been putting Labour ahead by 1% - 2% which converts to Labour being the largest party in an hung parliament and therefore most likely to form the next government as indicated by a plethora of election forecasting sites such as electoralcalculus.co.uk which currently puts Labour on 298 seats to Conservatives on 267 (9th March 2015), or the New Statesman's May2015.com that puts Labour on 283 seats against Conservatives on 255 (5th March 2015).

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, March 08, 2015

Vote Labour Get SNP Catastrophe - General Election 2015 Forecast - Grand Coalition Possible / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Poll after poll indicates that the Labour party faces a blood bath in Scotland that could result in the loss of as many as 40 of its 41 Scottish seats and thus making a Labour majority government impossible, that coupled with the Liberal Democrats national meltdown could result in the SNP increasing their seats tally from the current 6 to as many as 57 thus replacing the Liberal Democrats as Britain's third largest party.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, March 07, 2015

Immigration Crisis General Election 2015, Voters Punish Conservatives and Labour with Another Hung Parliament / ElectionOracle / Immigration

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A study by the University of Oxford concludes that England's migrant population has increased by 565,000 over the past 3 years of which 2/3rds are from the EU. However, in my opinion Oxford University grossly under estimates the number of immigrants as illustrated by the most recent ONS statistics which show a near 300,000 net migration to the UK over just one year, where the total over the past 3 years is near 750,000. So in reality the probable actual increase in migrant population of England and Wales is likely to be about 1/3rd higher than the Oxford University guesstimate.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, March 06, 2015

Cameron Fears Debates Would Cost Tories the Election - Potential 12 Seat Swing to Labour / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Mainstream media pundits and opposition politicians are in near unison uproar at David Cameron's tactics at avoiding any debate let alone the 3 planned for debates including two one on one between David Cameron and Ed Milliband that appeared certain of taking place only a couple of weeks ago, but now an apparently cowardly David Cameron has made it clear that there is no chance of any head to head debate with Ed Milliband before election day.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, March 06, 2015

UK Election 2015 - Cameron Housing Bribe - 200,000 Discounted Homes for 400,000 Voters / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest Conservative party election bribe is for 200,000 starter homes to be built and sold at a deep 20% discount of market value which translates into an potential bribe of as much as £90,000 per home buying couple! Therefore targeting a potential of 400,000 voters, enough to tip a handful of marginal seats in the Tories favour.

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, March 05, 2015

UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Immigration Crisis, SNP Insurgency and Housing Mini-Boom / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Answering who will win the 2015 UK General Election.

Find out what the impact will be of the SNP insurgency determined to disintegrate the United Kingdom, Liberal Democrats meltdown following betray of solemn pledges (tuition fees), UKIP profiting from continuing out of control immigration, unemployment falling to a 6 year low, and the housing market sentiment driven mini-economic boom as this analysis concludes in a detailed UK general election seats per party forecast including who will form the next UK government.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, February 28, 2015

UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from Part 1 (UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others) that forecast the probable seats for the UK's minor parties. This article (Part 2) concludes by forecasting the probable seats for the Labour and Conservative parties, and which is most likely to form the next government.

UK Political Party Funding Suggests Another ConLib General Election Outcome 2015

A recently published report by the Electoral Commission details fund raising by all of the major political parties for 2014, and allowing for expectations for a similar trend into the May 2015 general election means that significant differences in the funding of major parties election campaigns could result in a significant impact in this years too close to call probable hung parliament election result.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, February 28, 2015

UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britain's political parties are all ramping their frenzy of activity in the run up to the May 7th General Election with a string of bribes being announced virtually every other day as the parties fire their free money missiles at targeted potential voters, such as the Tories bribing pensioners with a interest rate busting 4% NS&I £15k bond at a subsidised cost to the tax payer of at least £1.2 billion. Whilst the opposition Labour party firing back by aiming at student voters with the announcement of a £10 billion bribe to cut tuition fees for £9k to £6k per year AND to bung students an extra £400 annual allowance, a tuition fees promise that Labour will likely break just as they had broken their 1997 promise NOT to introduce tuition fees in the first place which Labour subsequently did.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, February 27, 2015

UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For Britain the most critical economic driver, far beyond interest rates, inflation, or even unemployment is the trend in average house prices for the fundamental reason that positive housing market SENTIMENT IS that which makes the all difference between the UK economy being in recession or in an common boom, as you don't tend to get one without the other. Which any government of the day fully realises and why the Coalition government has literally bent over backwards to first ignite and then to target maintaining a house prices bull market right into the May 2015 General Election through a myriad of tax payer funded schemes such as ZERO interest rates, the Help to Buy Scheme, Stamp duty cut and a continuous flood of liquidity forcing savers to spend or invest depreciating value of bank deposits into primarily bricks and mortar as I have covered at length for several years -

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ElectionOracle

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Will Conservatives Out of Control Immigration Crisis Boost UKIP Election 2015 Prospects? / ElectionOracle / Immigration

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest immigration statistics out of the ONS once more illustrate the magnitude of the ConDem Coalition governments failure to control immigration where to all intents and purposes the past 5 years have just marked a continuation of the Labour catastrophe that set in motion a mega-trend for a 15 year long surge in net immigration of well over over 3 million people, where approx 90% of the adults were expected to vote Labour.

The facts to date illustrate that David Cameron just CANNOT be trusted on immigration, for his party in government has repeatedly FAILED in virtually EVERY IMMIGRATION PROMISE made as when David Cameron took power in 2010 he promised that he would cut net immigration towards the end of the parliament to the tens of thousands from the then disastrous annual figure of 205,000, instead the latest data from the ONS shows that net immigration has continued to SOAR to a level far higher level even than in 2010 to now stand at 298,000, near 1/3rd higher.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Liberal Democrat Election Blood Bath - Could Nick Clegg Lose Sheffield Hallam? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

If the opinion polls are to believed then the Liberal Democrats are literally facing an election blood bath, a wipeout that could see the Lib-Dems lose more than half their MP's, falling from a major third party coalition forming tally of 56 ( already having lost 1 MP along the way) to as few as just 20 as according to Lord Ashcroft's detailed constituency level polling, and no more than 26 according to the current most favourable projections which would mean no more limousine rides for Nick Clegg & co!

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ElectionOracle

Friday, February 20, 2015

UK Political Party Funding Suggests Another ConLib General Election Outcome 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A report published by the Electoral Commission details fund raising by all of the major political parties for 2014, and allowing for expectations for a similar trend into the May 2015 general election means that significant differences in the funding of major parties election campaigns could result in a significant impact in this years too close to call probable hung parliament election.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


ElectionOracle

Monday, February 16, 2015

SNP-Syriza Labour Coalition Government Election Catastrophe, Debt Binge Before Breakup / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Last September the UK had a close call with catastrophe as the tunnel vision SNP failed in their efforts for UK disintegration that would have resulted in a catastrophic breakup of Britain and far worse for Scotland that would literally have started to unravel politically, economically and socially as Scotland itself would soon start to disintegrate as I warned in the run up to the referendum vote. Of course Scotland voted NO, for most Scots are not insane, though succeeded in having the fools in Westminister conned into making promises to increase the annual bribe to Scotland from mostly English tax payers.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, February 13, 2015

Buying a Home the Most Valuable Tax "Loophole" Available Today / ElectionOracle / US Housing

By: DailyWealth

Buying a Home the Most Valuable Tax "Loophole" Available Today

Brett Eversole writes: The government seems to spend its time finding ways to increase taxes...

In 2013, income taxes for America's top earners increased. And in last month's State of the Union address, President Obama proposed capital gains tax increases among other changes.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, February 08, 2015

UK Government Extends 4% Pensioner Bonds Grey Vote Bribe to Election Day / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne today announced that the Collation government is extending the Over 65 4% Pensioner Bonds Tory election bribe for 3 months, all the way to election day. The original tranche was for £10 billion that has all but been consumed by yield starved cash rich pensioners with today's news likely to allow for a further £10-£15 billion of election bribe bonds to be sold over the next 3 months at an additional cost to the Tax payer of a least £700 million bringing the Pensioner bond election bribe total to at least £1.2 billion in terms of free money for pensioners.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Forget the 2014 U.S.Election, a False Manufactured Reality / ElectionOracle / US Congressional Elections

By: Ron_Holland

Another election day is upon us, always a great boost to the establishment media giants that own cable and print news as well as TV and radio stations. Total political advertising spending for the 2014 election should reach $2.5 billion dollars in this cycle and most of the payoff money goes to only six companies.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, October 31, 2014

Election Result - Labour Wins South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections

By: N_Walayat

The mainstream press were once more caught out by an apparently surprise Labour win in the South Yorkshire PCC by-election, as the press had increasingly built themselves up into a fever pitch of expectations for an upset UKIP victory all in the wake of the single issue of the Rotherham child abuse scandal as illustrated earlier by the likes of Channel 4 news -

"A UKIP victory here would be especially embarrassing to Labour as Ed Milliband is a South Yorkshire MP. It would be a sign that Nigel Farage's party poses as much as threat to Labour as it does to the Conservatives and a sign too that in many parts of Northern England just as in Scotland that Labour can no longer depend on its working class base" - Michael Crick, C4News (28th Oct 14)

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

UKIP South Yorkshire PCC Election Win is Just Not Going to Happen / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections

By: N_Walayat

The by-election for the South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner in the wake of the resignation of Shaun Wright is to be held this Thursday, and which has started to galvanise the mainstream press into swallowing UKIP propaganda that they actually stand a chance of winning the by-election all on the basis of one message centred around the Rotherham child sex abuse scandal as illustrated by the poster vans that are doing the rounds in Rotherham area.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, October 06, 2014

UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Cameron Tory Tax Cut Fact Check / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The big election bribe news out of the recent party conferences was David Cameron's promise / voter bribe to substantially raise both the starting and higher rate tax bands that the mainstream media uniformly costed at £7 billion to be added to Britain’s black hole (budget deficit of £95 billion per year).

I can tell you now that a future Conservative Government will raise the tax-free personal allowance from £10,500 to £12,500.

That will take 1 million more of the lowest paid workers out of income tax – and will give a tax cut to 30 million more.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, October 04, 2014

Bulgaria’s October 5th Elections: A Flashback at the Economic Records / ElectionOracle / Eastern Europe

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Bulgarians will go to the polls on October 5th to elect new members of its parliament and thus a new government. Before casting their votes, voters should reflect on the economic records of Bulgaria’s governments since 1995.

Every country aims to lower inflation, unemployment, and lending rates, while increasing gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Through a simple sum of the former three rates, minus year-on-year per capita GDP growth, I constructed a misery index for each of Bulgaria’s six governments since 1995 (see the accompanying table).

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