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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Europe: Why It's Going to Get a Lot Worse Before It Gets Better / Economics / European Union

By: EWI

New interview with our European markets expert

Brian Whitmer, the editor of our monthly European Financial Forecast, explains what indicators helped him anticipate market volatility.

You'll also learn what he's expecting for the year ahead in European stocks.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

The Next Generational Bust Is Coming, Stock Market 70% Collapse / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Harry_Dent

Oil can’t seem to get a break. After falling just below $27 last week, oil finally rallied back to $32 before falling back to just under $31 on Tuesday. An oversold bounce was naturally due, with perhaps a bit more to come. But the oil market’s doing exactly what I said it would – cratering!

Meanwhile, in la-la land, stocks have been so focused on the decline in oil prices that they just ignored the other big trigger for a stock decline.

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Companies

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Rodney Johnson: Time For Retailers to Panic? / Companies / Retail Sector

By: Rodney_Johnson

By most accounts, holiday retail sales were a letdown. While retail sales climbed 3.3% over November and December, stores reported a 6.4% drop in foot traffic. So even though people might have spent a bit more, they were choosy in where they spent.

When customers spend less, companies earn less, affecting the bottom line. This relationship is on display at companies like Macy’s, which warned that sales were off 4.7% in November and December. The company plans to close stores and lay off thousands of workers. The same story is unfolding at Gap.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

The Coming Stock Market Decline May be a Monster / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket appears to be challenging yesterday’s low at 1920.30.

ZeroHedge reports, “It certainly does feel like groundhog day today because while last week's near record oil surge is long forgotten, and one can debate the impact the result of last night's Iowa primary which saw Trump disappoint to an ascendant Ted Cruz while Hillary and Bernie were practically tied, one thing is certain: today's continued decline in crude, which has seen Brent and WTI both tumble by over 3% has once again pushed global stocks and US equity futures lower, offsetting the euphoria from last night's earnings beat by Google which made Alphabet the largest company in the world by market cap.”

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Housing-Market

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

UK Buy-to-let Market Unfazed by Stamp Duty Changes / Housing-Market / Buy to Let

By: MoneyFacts

Yesterday saw the close of the Treasury’s consultation on higher rates of Stamp Duty on additional properties. However, data from Moneyfacts.co.uk can reveal that, despite all the talk surrounding the sector, buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage rates are continuing to drop.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

S&P 500 Has Likely Entered a New Bear Phase / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Submissions

Ken Ticehurst writes: The S&P 500 has now more than likely entered a new bear phase which could well last for most of 2017 the monthly close signalled the probability that a multi month decline is underway. Since 2008 the S & P 500 has enjoyed one of its largest and longest and rises in modern times, our long term chart below shows this Bull Run in context.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Bad GDP...Bad ISM....Bad AMZN.....Good Japan....Japan Wins.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market has had a lot of bad news to deal with as of late. Two of the worst are the GDP, and the awful news out of the ISM Manufacturing Report this morning. The number 48.2 is showing contraction for our economy and further contraction from the prior month. Things are going the wrong way for our economy. The market should have gotten annihilated today. It decided not to because it can. The market seemingly wants to retrace higher for reasons that make literally no sense to me. We should have stopped before this level, but the MACD's are crossed, and, thus, the market tries.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

SPX Making a Last Stand / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX appears to be stalling at 1947.29, very close to a 50% Fib retracement (1946.92). That also comes out to nearly an exact 8.6 days of rally after 13.5 days of decline. If my Cycles Model is accurate, it anticipates 8.6 days of decline, suggesting a low on Thursday morning, February 11.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

How and Why To Move Your Assets Offshore Before the Financial Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

[The following is by Paul Seymour, Managing Partner of TDV Offshore]

I worked for several years with Big 4 CPA firms in both the US and Saudi Arabia, and then spent many years as a multi-national corporate Controller and CFO in places like Florida, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Cairo, and Medellín. In my second, more free life, I’ve found satisfaction helping others better position themselves to avoid the onrushing financial catastrophe via variety of international strategies.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 01, 2016

The Davos Confetti Club / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Michael_Pento

The Keynesian elite gathered in Davos Switzerland this past week to pontificate on global economic issues and to strategize the engineering of The Fourth Industrial Revolution. This new so called “revolution” includes a discussion on the future of Artificial Intelligence. Judging by the comments coming from most of the list of attendees, it seems obvious the intelligence on display was indeed faux. But the most important take away from this venue was that central bankers have made it clear to the markets that the level and duration of quantitative counterfeiting knows no bounds.

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Commodities

Monday, February 01, 2016

Central Bank Created Silver Price Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

Central banks have created a mess, unless you enjoy unemployment, crashing economies, a wave of bankruptcies, and half of the world’s assets owned by only a few people.

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Commodities

Monday, February 01, 2016

Gold and Silver Bullion Up 5.3% and 3.4% In January as Stocks Fall Sharply / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Gold and silver rallied (5.3% and 3.4% respectively) in January, as stocks fell sharply.

Turmoil and sharp falls in Chinese and global stock markets, plunging oil prices, rising stress in credit markets and further signs of weak US and global growth led to a renewed bout of risk aversion in January.

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Personal_Finance

Monday, February 01, 2016

Savers Wait for a Miracle as the Savings Market Stagnates / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts

By: MoneyFacts

The savings market has suffered considerably over the past few years thanks to lending initiatives and a low bank base rate, and the latest research from Moneyfacts.co.uk shows that savings rates have been on a clear downward trajectory as a result.

Since 2011, the average rate on a two-year fixed bond has almost halved, down from 3.20% five years ago to just 1.72% today. A similar pattern can be seen on longer-term bonds, with five-year fixed rates recording a drop from 4.01% to just 2.59% over the same period. Easy access deals have not been left unscathed from poor returns either, with a staggering 75% of the market paying 1% or less.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 01, 2016

The Fed Is Not Hiking Rates: Risk Assets To Perform / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bob_Kirtley

The landscape of global monetary policy is changing. In late 2015 we had the Fed hiking, signalling more to come, the ECB holding back on fresh QE and even the BOJ, which has engaged in more easing than any other central bank in history, was sitting on its hands.

That tune has changed.

The BoJ moved to negative rates this week. The Fed didn’t hike and signalled that they aren’t going to hike in the short term. The ECB is making noises about expanding its QE programs. In this article we explore direction of monetary policy going forward and its implications for financial markets.

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Politics

Monday, February 01, 2016

Ron Paul - Is U.S. Congress Declaring War on ISIS...or on You? / Politics / US Politics

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Passage of Senator Mitch McConnell's authorization for war against ISIS will not only lead to perpetual US wars across the globe, it will also endanger our civil and economic liberties. The measure allows the president to place troops anywhere he determines ISIS is operating. Therefore, it could be used to justify using military force against United States citizens on US territory. It may even be used to justify imposing martial law in America.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 01, 2016

US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds Big Picture / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rambus_Chartology

Since we covered the many different markets in detail last week I would like to focus back in on the US dollar and the TLT looking for clues for the big picture direction. The huge daily swings, in say the INDU last week, makes it very hard to keep and hold a short or long position unless you're perfect on your entry point. In a bull market it's two steps forward and one step backward and in a bear market it's two steps down and one step up. If an entry point in a bear market is not made in the first part of the two steps down sequence you'll find your self behind at some point in the trade if the entry point was made in step two. This is one reason why it's so important to know the direction of the big trend. Until something changes I believe the US stock markets are now in a bear market. There are a lot of things that can change that outlook but for today that's what the charts are suggesting.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 01, 2016

BOJ Negative Interest Rates Central Banking Crime Syndicate's War on Cash for Triggering Panic Consumption / Interest-Rates / War on Cash

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst most market commentators were fixated on the prospects for further Fed tightening, the so called unwinding of easy money quantitative easing in the United States. The Japanese arm of the central banking crime syndicate took the markets by storm Friday by effectively decreeing that inflation is just too low for the systematic stealth theft of bank deposits to continue so now it's time to ramp things up a notch with the next step which is for NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES. The FIRST instance of which will be that an interest rate of -0.1% will be applied to bank deposits (excess reserves) with the central bank, again this is just the FIRST instance with MORE or rather WORSE to follow which sends a discouraging message to all against holding Yen deposits, triggering an immediate drop of over 2% in the value of the Yen.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 01, 2016

Great News! This Bull Market Is About to Collapse / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Investment_U

Matthew Carr writes:By now, I’m sure you’ve heard that the East Coast was hammered by a Godzilla-sized snowstorm last weekend.

Ignoring the milk, bread and toilet paper, my wife and I loaded up on liquor, cookie dough and junk food in preparation of being snowed in for a few days. We made a list of all the movies we missed in theaters that are now On Demand. We took video of our dog spazzing out in the backyard.

All things considered, it was a pretty great weekend.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 01, 2016

More Stock Market, Gold Selling Next Week? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The SPX should hold about 1943/44 Monday and then drop to around 1850 by Feb 3 or 4. The astro/fib CIT turns are Feb 1 and Feb 4. There is a Bradley turn due Feb 3-5. The 16 TD low is due Feb 3.

Astro-wise we have Venus conj Pluto as it translates the Uranus/Pluto square Feb 5-6. Mercury translates this same pair Jan 30/31. Normally, the stock market makes it low before the Venus Pluto conjunction suggesting Feb 3 to 4 for the low. This would agree more with the astro/fib turns, however, a bit of a stretch for the 16 TD low to meld with the 5 week low on Feb 25 if the low comes on the 4th, but not impossible.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 01, 2016

Elites Set to Wipe Out Stock Market Shorts Before Next Downwave... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Clive_Maund

The recovery rally in the US stockmarket that we have been expecting for a week or two started on Friday with a robust advance that gathered strength into the close. The trigger was Japan's announcement that it is going into NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) in a big way, which means that as they slip deeper into the abyss of bankruptcy they are going to resort to robbing savers. This is real "endgame stuff" - another milestone on the road to ruin, and it looks like it was the result of the Japanese attendees at Davos being taken to one side and given their "marching orders". The US stockmarket reveled in this news of course, because it means that the Fed's proposed interest rate rises will never happen and instead they will get ready to launch a massive QE blitz, in concert with Central Banks around the world, in a desperate effort to fend off the gathering forces of deflation. The end result of this QE blitz will be hyperinflation and chaos. At some point the penny will drop with investors and there will be a stampede into gold and silver, although latest COTs suggest that this is still some way off.

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