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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Housing-Market

Thursday, October 06, 2022

US Housing Market BUST - Why the Real Estate Tide is Turning / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: EWI

Here's your next step to get a handle on the global property market.

Treat houses as a consumption item -- or simply as a place to live, and history shows that real prices will fluctuate only modestly over the decades.

Treat houses as an investment, and the value of houses takes on the characteristics of the stock market.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 02, 2022

Answering the Question - Has the Stocks Bear Market Bottomed? Apple Nut About Crack? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Has the BEAR market Bottomed? That is the question I am most often asked for the duration of this bear market, where my earlier responses were that my focus was on accumulating target stocks as they DEVIIATE FROM THEIR HIGHS TO NEW LOWS, so where the indices actually bottom is largely irrelevant. Still this is the most asked question so following the June bottom my stance changed to the bottom is probably in for most target stocks, though I cannot say the same for the indices. However in the run up to 4180 I had penciled in a subsequent bear swing target of between 3720 to 3920 for a probable higher low, which means that June was probably the bottom. This weeks price action further strongly suggests that the BOTTOM IS IN as I voiced in the comments section of my last article where for me the key indication was the breakout above 4200, it was not an intraday move or a few shallow spikes above 4200, Instead the S&P rocketed higher by over 110 points in a 3 day run from 4200 to 4317 that acted as a strong indicator that 3637 was THE BOTTOM, and thus all we can now seek is a correction of a fraction of the rally off the bottom for a 2nd bite at the AI stocks investing cherries.

However, the bottom is in is also based on my past studies that suggest a 50% reversal from the bear market lows usually act as a strong indication of the bottom being in which is the focus of this analysis that acts as a further excerpt from my forthcoming in-depth analysis that I have hit the pause button on for 1 week as I venture out of my castle for the first time in 6 months to travel to Wales for some sun, sea and sand and perhaps see if I can find Excalibur in one of it's many lakes that follows the slow recovery form my March ruptured Achilles tendon injury that revealed the extent to which the NHS is a JOKE Health Service when one actually has the misfortune to use it.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 02, 2022

The Queen Died, but King Dollar Lives On / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Queen Elizabeth II died, but King Dollar is the strongest in decades. Gold doesn’t like it.

To say that gold has been struggling this year is an understatement. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal declined from above $2,000 to below $1,700 (as of September 20). That slide occurred during the highest inflation since the great stagflation of the 1970s.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 02, 2022

Why Gold? Why now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Richard_Mills

Why should investors even consider taking a position in a gold junior, given gold’s lackluster performance so far this year?

Having scaled 2021 peaks of $1,865 an ounce in November, and $1,903 in June, the gold price burst onto 2022 @ $1,800. By Jan. 19 it was at $1,840. Since then, the precious metal has come under intense selling pressure. A combination of rising government bond yields and a soaring US dollar index are the main bearish elements driving gold (and silver) south. Spot gold year to date is down $124, or 8.4%.

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Housing-Market

Saturday, October 01, 2022

Will UK House Prices CRASH Following Bond Market Panic? - 3 Year Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England PANICS and Bailouts the Banks and Pension Funds once more by reversing course on barely begun Quantitative Tightening to buy up a huge supply of Government Bonds to force long-term interest rates lower because the Banks and Pension funds had gambled with pension fund holder funds on interest rate derivatives.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 01, 2022

Fed QT2 Imperils Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

The Fed’s second quantitative-tightening campaign already ramped up to full-speed in September, with dire market implications.  The unprecedented scale of QT2’s monetary destruction dwarfs QT1’s, which crushed stock markets.  With inflation raging out of control because of the Fed’s extreme quantitative-easing money printing, it has no choice but to run aggressive QT even though that imperils overvalued stocks.

Like many serious economic problems today, the Fed’s intractable money-supply-inflation mess was born in March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic.  In just over a single month, the flagship S&P 500 stock index plummeted an apocalyptic 33.9%!  Traders were terrified government-imposed lockdowns to fight the new COVID-19 virus would force a severe recession or full-blown depression, so they ran for the hills.

Fed officials joined in that panicking, deeply worried that the negative wealth effect from cratering stocks would crush consumer spending and thus the US economy.  So the Federal Open Market Committee rushed to intervene, making two emergency inter-meeting federal-funds-rate cuts of 50 basis points and 100bp!  But with the latter slamming the FFR back down to zero, the Fed was out of rate-cut ammunition.

So these elite central bankers making monetary policy decided to radically expand their already-underway fourth QE campaign.  QE4 had been born about five months earlier in mid-October 2019, adding $275b to the Fed’s balance sheet in that span.  At that same Sunday-evening meeting where the FOMC slashed its FFR 100bp, it pledged to monetize “at least” $500b in US Treasuries and $200b in mortgage-backed bonds.

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Companies

Saturday, October 01, 2022

Industrial Robots the Next IoT Sector Ready to Boom / Companies / Internet

By: Submissions

Reshoring…

Remember this word…

You will hear it more and more as we near the November elections… and in the years to come.

It means to bring a business that was moved overseas back home to America.

You see, the era of moving US production to China for cheap labor is over.

The US and China have been political rivals for a long time. Now they’re increasingly becoming outright enemies. They have serious disagreements over Taiwan and the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 01, 2022

Gold – A Case Of Unrealistic Expectations / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD – WHAT DID YOU EXPECT?

Question No. 1. What’s wrong with gold?

Question No.  2. Inflation is roaring and gold is dropping in price. Since gold is an inflation hedge, why isn’t its price going up?

If you need to ask either or both of those questions, then you are likely suffering from a case of unrealistic expectations involving gold and its price behavior.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

STOCKS BEAR MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENT BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As my recent excerpt from my forthcoming mega-piece on the stock market illustrated, there is a 80% probability that the bear market has bottomed and so far it has not done anything to negate this probability. Therefore it looks like we are coming out of our 6th MAJOR discounting event since the BIG Financial Armageddon BAD BEAR MARKET bottomed in March 2009.

Zoom out of hourly and daily charts and see the true magnitude of the 2022 bear market that has so many worried of much worse to come.MSM coverage of the financial markets is akin to a fly buzzing around that needs swatting!

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

How to Profit During a Bear Market - Portfolio Account / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Back in early April I opened an IKBR ISA with £20k (ISA limit) that I proceeded to quickly populate with target stocks as they traded down to new bear market lows. ISA's limit what one can do, i.e. NO SHORTING, Options and no access to most ETF's due to HMRC rules, another restriction is one cannot hold US Dollars, every buy and sell has to be converted into and out of US dollars, so ISA's are definitely geared towards longer term investors. Anyway the IKBR ISA acts as a good real world proxy for how my public portfolio should perform if one followed my analysis, where the primary goal is to accumulate during this temporary bear market to capitalise on during the subsequent bull market, my expectations from the outset were that there WILL BE DRAWDOWNS because stock prices FALL during bear markets so as to result in the buying opportunities, stocks getting cheaper during a bear market is a good thing! Cheaper in terms of their valuations for if a stock price falls and the stock gets more expensive in valuation terms then that is NOT a good thing!

Current state of the IKBR ISA is up 12% since inception (Early April 2022) through following my analysis of buying target stocks when they trade down to NEW LOWS and then trimming lightly on the subsequent rallies, cash now comprises about 33% of this portfolio up from about 3% near the lows, as IKBR does not charge a rip off f/x fee as many brokers, for comparison FreeTrade charges 0.45%, AJ Bell 1% and Interactive Investor charge 1.5%, what are they smoking! AJ Bell recently cut their f/x fee to 0.75% but their platform is a pain in the butt to use for US stocks i.e. NO LIMIT ORDERS!

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Stock-Markets

Monday, September 26, 2022

S&P June Stock Market Lows - To Break or Not to Break? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock Market - To break the June Low or not to break the June low, that is the question?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 26, 2022

Is Powell Bent on Wrecking the US Economy? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has taken a turn to the dark side.

After years of pleasing everyone on Wall Street and in Washington, D.C. with ultra-loose monetary policy, Powell has, for now, decided to recast himself as the villain. He now seems intent on crashing markets, killing jobs, and driving the economy into a deep recession in the name of fighting the inflation he helped unleash.

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Commodities

Monday, September 26, 2022

Gold Waved the White Flag and Began Its Great Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As predicted, the dollar grows stronger while gold goes in the opposite direction. Can we expect a temporary correction next?

It’s happening! The massive upswing in the USD Index and the slide in the precious metals market are here.     

Just like you knew in advance. I’m receiving multiple messages where you’re sharing your gratitude with me, and I’m extremely happy that you’re enjoying the results that you were able to get thanks to my help.

All right, what’s next?

First of all, I would like you to keep perspective.

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Economics

Sunday, September 25, 2022

INFLATION! INFLATION! INFLATION! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The big questions for the US and how our US tech stocks will fair over the coming year are -

1. Does the Federal Reserve finally understand just how dangerous inflation actually is ?

2. If it does then how is it going to subvert the inflationary policies of the White house, does not matter which clown is in office i.e. democrat or republican, BOTH have tendencies towards rampant money printing given the 4 year election cycle.

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Personal_Finance

Sunday, September 25, 2022

Intel 13th Gen Raptor Lake Pricing, Specs, Benchmarks, Leaks and more... / Personal_Finance / INTEL

By: HGR

Here's what you need to know about Intel's 13th Gen Raptor Lake processors that officially go on sale on 20th October 2022. Intel has embargoed benchmarks until then but all indications from leaks of engineering samples are to expect a 10% to 15% boost over Alder lake in productivity tasks.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, September 24, 2022

Stock Market BULL Trap SET! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock Market FOMO's to 4280 Friday close ending at the high of the day! Short covering rally triggered by CPLIE of 8.5% down from 9.1% for June, all blind to the reality of what Inflation above 4% let alone above 8% actually means for the US economy and how it impacts the every day lives of ordinary americans that are destined for greater pain with each passing month even if CPLIE nose dives to under 4% which will make NO difference in terms of the Inflation pain that I suspect will run for the whole of this decade as the 10 year inflation graph warns of what looks set to come to pass. It's not rocket science, it's the consequences of over $9 trillion of QE, and $35 trillion of total GLOBAL money printing QE, the only way it won't show up in the inflation indices is if they systematically exclude everything that goes up in price, perhaps only leaving the ball point pen that Jerome Powell fidgets with at every Fed meeting.

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Commodities

Friday, September 23, 2022

All Gold and Quiet on the Eastern Front / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The war in Ukraine has entered its seventh month and some people believe that China is gearing up for a war with Taiwan. Will bulls invade the gold market?

In August, half a year had passed since the beginning of the war in Eastern Europe. Ukraine defended its independence but lost 13% of its territory. The six months of war between Europe’s two largest nations have brought death and suffering on a mass scale. More than 13 million people have been displaced, and nearly 7 million refugees have dispersed across Europe. Ukraine’s economy collapsed while the prices of food and energy have soared.

What is the situation on the front? Unfortunately, the aggressor’s troops maintain a relatively stable land connection with Crimea and are slowly pushing the Ukrainian army from its positions in Donbas, the main area of combat. It means that taking control of the rest of the Donetsk Oblast by the Russians is probably a matter of time, although it may take several more months. The change in favor of the Ukrainians is possible only if the West significantly increases its military supplies, which would enable an effective Ukrainian counter-offensive. It’s true that the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the direction of Kherson in the south of the country is gaining momentum – in particular thanks to the supplies of HIMARS – but a full scale operation is unlikely due to a lack of manpower and weapons.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 23, 2022

Economic Conditions, Market Performance Worsen after Fed Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are trying to tough this week despite another large rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by three quarters as expected. Fed chairman Jerome Powell vowed to bring inflation down and restore price stability.

Jerome Powell: My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal. We have both the tools we need and the resolve that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%. The longer the current bout of high inflation continues the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

After pursuing ultra-loose monetary policy that fomented price instability and massive inflation in the first place, Powell seems to now want to model himself after former Fed chairman Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, Volcker jacked up interest rates to the highest on record to finally curtail the inflation surge from the late 1970s.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 23, 2022

Why You Should Be Leery of the Stocks Bond 60 / 40 Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI


"The tidal wave of risk assumption … may be turning"

Many investors allocate a percentage of their portfolios to bonds to cushion against a drop in the stock market.

A popular allocation is a 60 / 40 mix of stocks and bonds.

However, this hasn't worked out recently. Here's a Yahoo! Finance headline (Sept. 6):

The 60/40 strategy is on pace for its worst year since 1936: BofA

The mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds was down 19.4% from the start of the year through the end of August, according to Bank of America Global Research.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Saudi Arabia Potential DOOMSDAY Oil Market BLACK SWAN! / Commodities / Saudi Arabia

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yes here's another potential black swan brewing in the background as the world continues to reel from the impact of high oil prices with the blame firmly being placed at the feet of Czar Putin, so I trundled along to take a look under the hood of the oil market and I noticed something strange that could result in an oil market DOOMSDAY Black Swan event!

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