Monday, December 10, 2018
United States Facing Climate Change Severe Water Stress / Commodities / Climate Change
By: Richard_Mills
Whisky is for Drinking; Water is for Fighting Over
The problem of severe water stress in the United States - and elsewhere - is serious and getting worse. Water stress is what happens when the demand for water exceeds the amount available, or when poor quality restricts its use. It most commonly occurs in areas where available water supplies have been over-exploited, often due to agriculture or urban development.
Depending on diet and lifestyle, a person needs between 2,000 and 5,000 litres of water a day to produce their food and meet their drinking and sanitation requirements
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Monday, December 10, 2018
First Time Buyer Mortgage Fixed Rates Tumble to Record Lows / Housing-Market / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, shows the average two-year fixed rate at max 95% loan-to-value (LTV) is at a record low while the choice of all fixed rate products available at max 90% LTV is at its highest on record.
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Monday, December 10, 2018
Waiting for Gold Price to Erupt / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we are watching the US and global markets rotate dramatically lower over the past few days, we have been advising our members that we believe this rotation is an over-reaction to economic impetuses and trade issues – not a massive downside price break. Overall, some of our longer-term technical indicators are currently bearish, as one would think technical indicators would react to price activity and trends. Our ADL, predictive modeling system, is still suggesting upside price activity and we believe our research team has hit on something that helps to put this end of year turmoil into perspective.
Monday, December 10, 2018
Stock Market Key Support Being Re-Tested / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bullish, but correcting within the long-term bull market trend.
Intermediate trend – bearish correction has started which could retrace as low as 2200 before it is complete
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, December 10, 2018
May BrExit Deal Tory MP Votes Forecast, Betting Market Analysis / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Theresa May's government is now certain to lose the critical vote in the House of Commons on her "EU Withdrawal Act" at around 6pm on Tuesday the 11th of December 2018. Theresa May requires 320 MP's to vote for her deal to get it through the House of Commons, with the mainstream media consensus pointing towards Theresa May only being able to secure support from between 190 to 240 MP's, the wide range as a consequence of 50 undecided Tory MP's. Therefore the level of uncertainty presents a betting markets opportunity.
Monday, December 10, 2018
Listen to What Gold is Telling You / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Gary_Savage
Listen to what gold is saying. It’s not deflation that we have to worry about. We’re about to enter a multi year period of rising inflation. Seriously did you think years of QE weren’t going to have consequences at some point?
For a long time I’ve maintained several key macro views.
- Gold started a new bull market in late 2015.
- The dollar started a secular bear market in early 2017.
- Stocks have not topped yet. We still have higher highs ahead.
First off let’s look at the stock market.
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Monday, December 10, 2018
The Stock Market’s Long Term Outlook is Changing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As I explained in today’s special report, our Macro Investing Index has been deteriorating since August/September 2018. This stands in sharp contrast with the 10% correction from this January – February 2018, when the U.S. macro economy was healthy.
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Sunday, December 09, 2018
Gold Stocks Acting as they Should During Market Stress / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
The macro has moved through a time of moderately rising inflationary concerns when economies were cycling up, many commodities were firm and risk was ‘on’. Contrary to the views of inflation-oriented gold bugs, that was not the time to buy gold stocks.
As I have belabored again and again, the right time is when the inflation view is on the outs, gold is rising vs. stock markets, the economy is in question, risks of a steepening yield curve take center stage (the flattening is so mature now that steepening will be a clear and present risk moving forward) and by extension of all of those conditions, confidence declines.
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Sunday, December 09, 2018
Palladium Shortages Expose Broken Futures Markets for Precious Metals / Commodities / Palladium
By: MoneyMetals
Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report joins me for a fascinating conversation you will not want to miss. Craig tells me why we all need to pay attention to the white-hot palladium market right now and discusses the massive physical supply shortages there that have a chance to actually break the trading exchanges. He also suggests 2019 is poised to be the best year for gold and silver in nearly a decade. So make sure you stick around for my interview with Craig Hemke, coming up after this week’s market update.
Well, it’s been a wild few days in the markets for stocks, commodities, and precious metals....
In spite of the trading week being shortened by a national day of mourning for former President George H.W. Bush, the S&P 500 experienced one of its widest weekly trading ranges of the year. Prices swung 5% from high to low, with most of that being recorded on the downside. The stock market did manage to avert a major technical breakdown Thursday, closing well above its low point.
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Sunday, December 09, 2018
Macron Heralds The End Of The European Union / Politics / European Union
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The concept of the EU might have worked, but still only might have, if a neverending economic boom could have been manufactured to guide it on its way. But there was never going to be such a boom. Or perhaps if the spoils that were available in boom times and bust had been spread out among nations rich and poor and citizens rich and poor a little more equally, that concept might still have carried the days.
Then again, its demise was obvious from well before the Union was ever signed into existence, in the philosophies, deliberations and meetings that paved its way in the era after a second world war in two score years fought largely on the European continent.
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Sunday, December 09, 2018
Is an Inverted Yield Curve Bullish for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In recent days we’ve seen the beginnings of an inversion in the yield curve.
The 2-year yield and the 5-year yield have inverted but not yet the the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield, the curve that is watched most. However, “2s and 10s” as bond traders would say appear headed for an inversion very soon.
We know that an inversion of the yield curve precedes a recession and bear market. That is good for Gold. But timing is important and the key word is precedes.
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Saturday, December 08, 2018
Rising US Home Prices and Falling Sales / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Did you watch my video two Fridays ago? If not, check it out here. I explained how gold bugs are giving you dangerous advice about gold as an investment.But gold isn’t the only investment that people mistakenly make because they’re told the wrong thing.
Real estate is another one.
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Saturday, December 08, 2018
The Future of Net Worth / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Harry_Dent
Have I mentioned that this bubble in stocks – the one that most economists and analysts still claim “is not a bubble” – is now the greatest by far in its numerical advance, its percentage gains, and time frame?You’re damn right I have!
I’m broadcasting the warning far and wide, to any who will listen. Hopefully I can save a few, including you…
Unfortunately, people fat and drunk and high on free-money crack don’t see any bubble (nor do they want to, even if they could)!
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Saturday, December 08, 2018
Choosing Who the Autonomous Car Should Kill / Politics / US Auto's
By: Rodney_Johnson
I don’t want to be President of the United States.I wouldn’t want to subject my family, or myself for that matter, to the intense scrutiny required of elections.
I wouldn’t want to deal with what looks like political ego mania on Capitol Hill.
But, most of all, I wouldn’t want the awful responsibility of sending our sons and daughters to their deaths in war.
Saturday, December 08, 2018
Stocks Selloff Boosting Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The recent stock-market selloff is persisting, fueling mounting worries among investors. The intensifying volatility and lack of a quick rebound higher is strangling euphoric sentiment, spawning self-reinforcing selling pressure. Scoffed at a few months ago, the notions that a young bear market is underway and a recession looms are gaining traction. The great beneficiary of this ominous stock-market downturn will be gold.
Gold has always been an essential asset class for prudently diversifying investment portfolios. Uniquely it tends to rally when stock markets weaken, offsetting some of the losses in typical stock-heavy portfolios. Gold acts like portfolio insurance, usually soaring when stock markets plunge on unforeseen news. All throughout history, wise investors have recommended everyone have 5% to 10% of their portfolios in gold.
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Friday, December 07, 2018
Will Weak US Dollar Save Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Trade wars and lax fiscal policy are negative for the US dollar and positive for gold. Myth or fact? We invite you to read our today’s article about the effects of Trump’s actions on the greenback and find out whether weak dollar will save gold.
Let’s look at the chart below. As one can see, the greenback has been in a bull market since February 2018. Yup, the chart does not lie. The US Congress widened the fiscal deficit, while President Trump engaged in trade disputes. But despite these disturbing developments for long-run economic health, the broad trade weighted US dollar index increased from 115 to almost 130 now. But why – shouldn’t it decline?
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Friday, December 07, 2018
Oxbridge - Cambridge and Oxford Universities Mainly for Wealthy and Foreign Students / Politics / Adult Education
By: N_Walayat
A damning report today brought home the fact that Britain's best Universities Cambridge and Oxford are only really for the very wealthy and foreign students. Which means the Universities are selecting from a very narrow gene pool of potential British talent, thus by virtue of which miss out on the best of from Britain's state schools and thus cannot produce the best of Britain.
Research by the Sutton Trust shows 8 leading private schools dominate Oxbridge admissions, as over a 3 year period they sent 1310 students to Oxbridge, more than the best applicants from 3000 state schools.
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Friday, December 07, 2018
This Is the End of Trump’s Economic Sugar High / Economics / US Economy
By: Patrick_Watson
By most measures, the US economy is performing okay. GDP growth is still near 3.5%. Unemployment is below 4%. Inflation is up a bit but still historically low.Yes, the data has flaws. There’s plenty of regional variation. Your mileage may vary. But conditions could be a lot worse.
The problem: Sometimes the economy weakens beneath the surface.
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Friday, December 07, 2018
US Economy Will Deteriorate Over Next Half Year. What this Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Today’s post is really important. It’s based on the Macro Investing Model, which is something I’ve been working on for weeks.
The economy (macro) is set to deteriorate
Our new Macro Investing Index is described as:
As we’ve demonstrated repeatedly here at Bull Markets, leading economic indicators are also long term leading indicators for the stock market because the stock market and the economy move in the same direction in the long term. This is how you know if the stock market’s decline is a correction, or the start of a much bigger bear market (e.g. a 30%+ decline).
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Friday, December 07, 2018
Car Accident Not Your Fault, What Happens to Your Insurance Premium? (Morethan Example) / Personal_Finance / Insurance
By: N_Walayat
What happens to your car insurance if your involved in an accident that is NOT your fault? I imagine most motorists are thinking that given the fact that the insurance company will get ALL of their costs back from the third party's insurer, so there should be little increase in premium.
Well, that is not what actually tends to happens, in fact the driver at fault and the no fault driver are both likely to see a similar HIKE in insurance premiums! For instance if your insured with the leading RSA insurance brand MoreThan, and your involved in an accident that is NOT your fault then you can expect your insurance premium to rocket by as much as 42%! This despite the fact that the insurer (MoreThan) will have been fully reimbursed for costs incurred in the handling of the claim.
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