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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Housing-Market

Sunday, June 19, 2022

UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This graph shows that following Brexit UK house prices consolidated in GDP terms for a number of years towards trend before the current blast higher driven by the governments maniac pandemic spending binge .However, house prices are NOT that distant from trend so unless there IS a significant recession around the corner, this graph suggests the bull market has plenty of scope to continue trending higher for many years.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 19, 2022

Will Global Markets Be Pushed Deeper Into Crisis Event By The US Fed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

US and Global markets recoiled from the higher inflation/CPI data last week. The US Fed raised interest rates by 75pb on June 15. The Fed also warned that other, more aggressive rate increases might be necessary later this year. Before the Fed decision, global markets opened on Sunday, June 12, and quickly started selling downward. US Indexes sold off on Monday, June 13, by more than 2.5% almost across the board. A brief rally after the Fed decision seems to have evaporated in early trading on Thursday, June 16.

It is clear that global markets expected inflation to stay elevated but were hoping for some moderately lower data showing the recent Fed moves had already dented some inflation concerns. Now, it appears the US Fed has its backs against a wall and moved rates aggressively higher to stall inflation (and possibly destroy global asset values). From my perspective, this is unknown territory for the US Fed and Global Central banks. That means traders should expect increased volatility and the possibility of a very determined reversion of price over time.

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InvestorEducation

Sunday, June 19, 2022

Useful Things You Need To Know About Tweezer Top Candlestick Pattern / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis

By: Steve_Barker

The tweezer top candlestick pattern was popularized by Steve Nison in the West through his book ‘Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques’. Tweezers have varied in appearance, but there are certain traits that they have in common. Their appearance at market-turning points makes it possible to use them for analysis purposes. At times, they specify the likelihood of a reversal. When the price direction of an asset changes, it is known as a reversal.

These candlestick charts have been used by the Japanese to trade commodities since the 17th century. They monitor the prices of commodities in an aesthetically pleasing manner.

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Housing-Market

Friday, June 17, 2022

UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Continuing with the affordability theme the real terms sustainable house prices trend metric uses a souped up version of the oft mentioned average earnings X 3.5 ratio, where the X3.5 ratio has been defective since the 1980's instead the relentless trend puts the ratio currently at about 4.5X average earnings which resolves in the following trend graph.

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Companies

Friday, June 17, 2022

Why I’m buying the “new” value stocks… / Companies / Investing 2022

By: Stephen_McBride

It’s been a rough six months for tech stocks…

Amazon, Google, and Facebook are suffering their worst stock performance in years…

Some of these names have sold off so hard they’re now among the cheapest stocks on the market.

And that’s presenting a HUGE buying opportunity for you and me.

More on that in a moment…

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Companies

Friday, June 17, 2022

Optimize Benefits from R&D in Software Product Development with an R&D Tax Credit Software / Companies / SME

By: Sumeet_Manhas

We are transitioning into an economy that is based on knowledge and information as a consequence of the way that technology is increasingly taking over the processes of physical manufacturing. Right now, there is a continuous and growing need for R&D of software products just as when the production of physical products such as cars and building designs happened. Therefore, using an R&D Tax Credit Software to optimize tax benefits from R&D efforts is highly recommended for the purpose of ensuring that R&D efforts are optimized.

After all, we now recognize the importance that software plays even in the production of those physical items; apps based on blockchain technology, smart navigational systems, and smart power grids would never be conceivable without the relevant research that underpins them.

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Companies

Friday, June 17, 2022

Want To Save On Your Business Energy? Here Are Some Helpful Tips / Companies / SME

By: Steve_Barker

Saving money on your business energy is easier than you think! In this blog post, we will discuss some simple ways that you can reduce your energy consumption and save money in the process. Implementing just a few of these tips can help you see significant savings on your energy bill. So what are you waiting for? Read on to learn more!

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

State of the Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stocks put in a bottom of sorts Friday, but this is NOT THE Bottom where my existing view is to expect a Dow bottom during August at an approx level at 29,600, which is pending my next in-depth analysis. So 32,200 puts the Dow about 9% away from a probable bottom that would result in a 25% peak to trough bear market so we are about 2/3rds the way through this bear market in terms of price.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

The Gold Market Is Getting Ready for Another Interest Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As predicted, gold stocks are gradually declining. Their situation is unlikely to improve - the Fed is already planning another interest rate hike.

After yesterday’s huge slide in the PMs (GDXJ declined by over 8%!) and a sizable increase in our short positions in junior miners, gold and silver are moving back and forth, gathering strength for the next move. Or waiting for the next trigger.

They are likely to get it tomorrow (Wednesday, June 15), as the Fed is about to make another interest rate decision. The word got out yesterday that the Fed might hike interest rates by 0.75% instead of just 0.5%, and the markets reacted accordingly. Stocks and PMs fell, while the USD Index rallied.

The best part is that you knew about the bigger rate hike before almost everyone else – I wrote about that in the extra analysis that I posted/sent out on Saturday. Quoting:

The next interest rate decision is this Wednesday, and it’s probably going to be very interesting. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a rate hike by more than 0.5% - for example by 0.75%. This might be enough to send a message to the market that they are serious about the inflation and have positive political implications. Whether that happens or not, the following conference will likely aim to rebuild investors’ confidence in the Fed. It might or might not work with regard to confidence, but it should be enough to trigger declines in the markets (including PMs) – after all that’s how hawkish surprises work.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

The Dow Industrials’ Big 8-Wave Cycle is Incomplete / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

"We finally understand our full Elliott wave position"

The Wave Principle's basic pattern includes five waves in the direction of the larger trend, followed by three corrective waves, as illustrated in both bull and bear markets below:

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, June 15, 2022

7 Things You Need to Know About Finances / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: Steve_Barker

If you are an adult, then you will likely be in charge of your own finances. Most people are. However, if you don’t know a lot about proper financial management, then you won’t be able to make effective and sensible decisions for yourself. Bad financial decision-making can lead to a lifetime of misery and debt. Thankfully, learning to master one’s own finances isn’t as challenging as you might think that it is. All it takes to master them is some dedication and a few helpful articles. This post is one such article, and will tell you six things that you need to know about your finances:

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 13, 2022

Dow Stocks Bear Market Forecast Trend Trajectory / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Following a false break lower on 20th of May the stock market has managed to unwind some of what was an extremely oversold state, In fact that is 2 false breaks in a row on the Dow chart (red circles). Still the rally is galvanising many to start fantasising that the bottom is in when at the end of the day it is what it is a bounce from a very over sold state and thus a bear market rally that faces a lot of head winds when one considers all those who were buying stocks for a good month between Dow 34,250 and 35,250, who will now be eager for a chance to lighten their load on a rally back into their break even price zone which suggests that this bear market rally will terminate long before the Dow gets anywhere near 34,250 so I don't see much upside both in terms of price and time for this rally.

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Politics

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Why Putin has KILLED Russia / Politics / Russia

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is also why Putin has effectively KILLED Russia as Russia already had a stagnating population that will now suffer the consequence of a huge brain drain of millions of Russia's best and brightest young minds escaping to a better life abroad, The irony of Putin attempting to protect Russia has in fact KILLED Russia's future! It's GAME OVER for Russia! China will likely seek to capitalise on this dying empire where any close links that Putin forms with Emperor Xi Ping will ultimately result in the loss of Russian territory to China, as several millions of Chinese slip over Russia's eastern border in an stealth invasion in the name of friendship.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Trading the Calm Before the Stock Market Storm – Consider Putting On A Long Strangle / Stock-Markets / Options & Warrants

By: Chris_Vermeulen

There are times when markets consolidate and move sideways in a relatively narrow range.  We often see low volatility, little trending, and “choppy” price action when the market is slow. 

Range-bound, consolidating markets eventually resolve in one direction or the other. Breaking out of a narrow range often takes a catalyst event like a highly anticipated economic report or – in the case of individual stocks – something like an earnings report or FDA approval. Quite often, it is the anticipation of the event itself that keeps price range-bound.  Without knowledge of the event outcome, both bulls and bears are waiting it out before making large commitments.

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Economics

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Shrinkflation! / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter summer trading with investors looking for signs of a directional move.

Gold and silver prices consolidated this spring with silver showing more of a downside bias. Silver did find 200-week moving average support at the $21 level in early May, however. That long-term trend indicator is also now heading in an upward direction. So, there is a good chance that the lows for the year are in.

Metals markets have yet to fully reflect broader inflation pressures in the economy, a statement you’ve heard us repeat many times in recent months.

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Companies

Sunday, June 12, 2022

6 Useful Tips To Help You Create A Good Marketing Strategy / Companies / Marketing

By: Steve_Barker

A good marketing strategy helps businesses identify their target audience and reach and engage that audience. It involves more than making advertisements and hoping that people will see them and buy what you're selling. Instead, it's a holistic approach that considers all the different ways customers might interact with your business. Here are six useful tips to help you create a good marketing strategy:

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Commodities

Saturday, June 11, 2022

Big Inflation Will Spur Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold investment demand should be soaring with serious inflation raging, catapulting gold way higher.  Yet recently it has greatly lagged fast-rising general price levels, confounding contrarian investors.  But history argues this anomaly won’t last, that eventually big inflation will spur gold.  Today’s terrible inflation super-spike fueled by extreme Fed money printing is the first since the 1970s, when gold rocketed up by multiples.

The most-widely-followed US inflation gauge is the Consumer Price Index.  While its components and calculation methodologies have been changed countless times, the CPI’s history extends back well over a century to 1913!  For an entire decade prior to April 2021, the monthly headline CPI averaged modest 1.7% year-over-year gains.  That long span didn’t see a single 4%+ print, even with pandemic-lockdown disruptions.

But something changed in April 2021, when the CPI suddenly accelerated up 4.2% YoY.  That proved its hottest read since September 2008, emerging from that year’s brutal stock panic.  The Fed itself blamed that mounting inflation on supply-chain disruptions.  The Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary-policy statement released late that month argued “Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 11, 2022

Economic "Hurricane": Here's a Take on a Bank CEO's Warning / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: EWI

Here's what reached a nadir as the war in Ukraine broke out

On June 1, a CNBC headline said:

[Major bank CEO] says 'brace yourself' for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war

Yes, the U.S. central bank is engaging in so-called "quantitative tightening" and the war persists in Ukraine.

Yet, those cited "causes" of a possible economic "hurricane," like a severe recession or even a depression, are results themselves. For instance, the war in Ukraine resulted from a shift in social mood -- going from positive to negative.

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Companies

Saturday, June 11, 2022

Axie Infinity (AXS)Mmade a lot of People Rich… Temporarily, What We Learned / Companies / cryptocurrency

By: Stephen_McBride

Axie Infinity (AXS) made a lot of people rich… temporarily.

In 2020–2021, the crypto token shot from about 14 cents to above $150… handing out a mind-boggling 107,000%+ return... in just one year.

And it didn’t just make investors rich. The Axie token is associated with a video game that pays you to play it. Players—many of them in poorer countries like the Philippines—were making up to $3,500/month.

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Economics

Friday, June 10, 2022

The CRACK UP BOOM! Implications for Stocks, Housing. and Commodities, Silver Potential / Economics / Crack Up BOOM

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Whilst everyone is rightly focused on the BEAR MARKET that continues to cycle through stocks delivering sharply lower prices (buying opps), and as bad as things are likely to get i.e. this bear market has a lot further to run. Nevertheless there are mega-trends under way (monsters) that likely will deliver new all time highs for all of my primary AI tech stocks, though at that time most folks could have far more to worry about than stock prices.

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