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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Thursday, May 20, 2021

Will Precious Metals Investors Get the Last Laugh? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Financial markets have become a complete joke. From GameStop to Dogecoin to non-fungible tokens (NFTs), a plethora of assets have been pushed to laughable heights with the help of the Federal Reserve’s funny money.

Just about everyone, except for stone-faced Fed officials, seems to be in on the joke.

Dogecoin promoter and billionaire Tesla founder Elon Musk poked fun at cryptocurrencies and the U.S. dollar itself during his hosting duties last weekend on Saturday Night Live.

During the “Weekend Update” segment, Musk appeared in character as a cryptocurrency guru. He admitted Dogecoin began as a joke.

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Companies

Thursday, May 20, 2021

Is This The Most Exciting Healthcare Development Of The Year? / Companies / BioTech

By: FinancialMorningPost

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Currencies

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crypto mania bubble has finally BURST! All of the crypto's have gone into a free fall crash led by Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Doge coin and so on, all CRASHING, with exchanges and services halting withdrawals through use of BS press releases such as security hacks, much as I have been warning would happen for several months as to why no one should hold their funds with Nicehash or in any crypto's, transfer to coinbase and SPEND IT, don't HODLE as many of the noob crypto miners have been doing, now locked into freefalling markets!

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Stock Market Same Old Song and Dance – Almost / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Pendulum keeps swinging back into the S&P 500 bullish camp, as the Nasdaq rebound was mightily aided by rising long-dated Treasuries while value couldn‘t care less about their direction. Just as sharply the VIX rose, that steeply it retreated over the past two days, hinting that stocks are returning back to the old normal, which means about to go upwards. Option traders didn‘t agree that profoundly, but they aren‘t sending a trustworthy warning sign.

I care more about corporate bond markets returning to life, and the retreating yields once the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI has been digested. The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.

Given though the mammoth scale of money printing and fiscal injections that surely has the bond vigilantes rolling in their graves, it‘s miraculous that the bond markets aren‘t revolting more, much more. Okay, you may look at it as that the 10-year Treasury yield has more than tripled since August, but the low base (0.5% rate) is distorting the view. Plenty of room still before financial repression enters stage right even more noticeably (we are nowhere near the panic yield levels causing genuine hardship for the S&P 500), but we have time – I am looking for a reprieve in the Treasuries markets, which would help especially the tech sector recovery.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Being a Gold Bull Is Now Far Too Easy - Don’t Be Deceived / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

 Easy choices lead to a hard life (or at least losses), and because gold’s downside move is delayed, it’s extremely easy to be bullish on gold right now.

It’s easy to get carried away by the day-to-day price action, and it’s even easier to feel the emotions that other market participants are feeling while looking at the same short-term price action. Right now, it’s tempting to be bullish on gold. It’s “easy” to be bullish on gold while looking at what happened in the last 1.5 months. But what’s easy is rarely profitable in the long run.

“Easy choices – hard life. Hard choices – easy life” – Jerzy Gregorek

Let’s get beyond the day-to-day price swings. The Fed has been keeping the interest rates at ultra-low levels for many months, and it has just pledged to keep them low for a long time. The world is enduring the pandemic, and the amount of money that entered the system is truly astonishing. The savings available to investors skyrocketed. The USD Index has been beaten down from over 100 to about 90. And yet, gold is not at new highs. In fact, despite the 2020 attempt to rally above its 2011 high, gold’s price collapsed, and it invalidated the breakout above these all-important highs. It’s now trading just a few tens of dollars higher than it had been trading in 2013, right before the biggest slide of the recent years.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Gold Staging New Momentum Base In Preparation For A Big Upside Move / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In the first portion of this research article, I highlighted the correlation between Gold and the US Dollar as well as the correlation between the US Dollar and the EURUSD and JPYUSD.  The purpose of this example was to highlight the different phases of US Dollar appreciation vs depreciation compared to the EURUSD/JPYUSD.  The EURUSD and JPYUSD are often compared to the US Dollar as major global currencies.  Therefore, when the US Dollar moves into a depreciation phase, we expect to see the EURUSD and JPYUSD move into an appreciation phase.

How this correlated to the price of Gold and the phases of advancing vs declining precious metals is simple to understand.  Gold will stall, or more broadly downward, while the US Dollar is within an advancing/appreciation phase.  Gold will move higher or begin an upward trend bias when the US Dollar begins to generally weaken or moves into a declining/depreciation phase.

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Companies

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

The New Drug That Could Be Bigger Than Cannabis / Companies / Cannabis

By: Submissions

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Companies

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 / Companies / Investing 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This is part 2 of 2 (part1) of my investing high risk tech stocks analysis that was first made available to Patrons who support my work: How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond

  • Covid Current State
  • How to Get FREE Access to My Patreon Content for the Next 5 Years!
  • Dow Stock Market Dow Trend Forecast Current State
  • Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)
  • AI Stocks Lead the Bull Charge
  • King Zuckerberg Tech Companies to Set up their own Governments!
  • Best AI ETF ?
  • INVESTING IN HIGH RISK TECH STOCKS
  • THE ONLY WAY TO GET THE BIG PAY OFFs
  • High Risk Tech Stocks Short List
  • TESLA DISCOUNTING THE FUTURE
  • 4 More High Risk Tech Stocks
  • Who Wants to live Forever?
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Are Apple, Tesla, and Bitcoin Entering Market Technical Excess Top Phase? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In the first part of this research series, I highlighted the broad market cycles and what technical analysts call the “Excess Phase Top” process, which usually takes place after the market’s peak and set up a downward price trend.  There are a number of technical setups that take place throughout this process.  Today, I will be exploring the charts of Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), and Bitcoin (BTC) to see where they are in the process.

The suggestion I am making by highlighting these market trends and setups is that a Cash Position is a viable allocation of capital away from risks and losses.  Many traders don’t view a cash position as a properly allocated use of capital.  We believe taking a cash position at the right times can and does provide very clear benefits, including:

  1. Eliminating risks of further losses/drawdowns.
  2. Setting up a process of protecting cash and waiting for a confirmed re-entry trigger.
  3. Avoiding the failure of buying into a declining market – which is one of the biggest faults of active traders.
  4. Using the Cash position as a hedge against shifting currency/market valuations.

Remember, in many cases, broad market downtrends are often associated with bigger trends in currencies and global market sectors.  Chasing these trends can lead to further risks if you are not careful and skilled in your trading decisions.  Keeping your capital in a Cash Allocation/Position is often the easiest and safest way for you to ride out volatile downside price trends and allows you to re-deploy your cash into new trades when the time is right.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Gold Watch Out as Price May Be Staging New Momentum Base In Preparation For A Big Move Upwards / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Although Gold has continued to drift downward after reaching a peak near $2089.20 in early August 2020, our Custom Gold Inverse Trending Index suggests this weakness has actually built a very strong momentum base – preparing for a big move higher.

The relationship of Gold to the US Dollar is a fairly widely known correlation.  When the US Dollar is weaker, Gold tends to rally.  When the US Dollar is stronger, Gold tends to be weaker.  Yet the combination of EURUSD and JPYUSD (plotted in INVERSE) in combination to the trend of the US Dollar related to Gold is difficult to ignore.  Let’s explore this unique correlation a bit deeper.

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Housing-Market

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Why the Demand for US Real Estate Licenses May Soon Fall into a Sinkhole / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: EWI

By this measure, the housing boom may be nearing an end

A lot of people who've lost jobs have turned to getting their real estate licenses as a path to prosperity.

Part of the mindset that selling houses is worth a try is the belief that prices go up most of the time.

As the Wall Street Journal noted on March 21:

[S]urging prices are persuading tens of thousands more Americans to try their hands at selling real estate.

There have been many other periods of time when home prices have trended higher. However, that's not always the case. As you know, home prices sank significantly following the subprime mortgage meltdown of nearly a decade-and-a-half ago.

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Companies

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Semiconductor Equipment Maker ASML Is at the Center of the Global Chip Shortage / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Stephen_McBride

I hope you’re not renting a car anytime soon. Tourists flocking to sunny spots like Hawaii and Florida are having a difficult time. The average car rental on the island of used to cost $50 a day. Now a basic Toyota Camry in Hawaii will set you back around $400 a day. Some desperate travelers are even turning to U-Haul vans because rental car lots are empty.

When COVID hit, car rental giants Avis and Hertz held fire sales. In fact, they dumped over half a million cars last year. Now, they can’t buy new cars. If you’ve been following along, you know Ford started shutting the doors on its factories back in February.  Now it says some of them will be closed until August!

GM, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, and Volvo and other automakers were forced to idle their plants, too. Ford says it expects to produce 1.1 million fewer vehicles this year than it had planned. According to top consulting firm AlixPartners, automakers will lose $61 billion in sales this year. The reason?
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Companies

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Could This Be The Hottest Investment Sector For 2021? / Companies / BioTech

By: FinancialMorningPost

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Companies

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

TESLA Tech Stock Bubble BURSTS! Stock Price Heading for CRASH to below $400 / Companies / Electric Cars

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is now entering my forecast window for a significant correction which should present an opportunity to accumulate into most the AI mega-trend stocks many of which have galloped ahead to new all time highs this year, trending in the opposite direction to the much higher risk stocks such as those that heavily populate the media blitzkrieging Cathy Wood's ARK funds i.e. their biggest holding Tesla is down 4.5% year to date whilst AI numero Uno Google is up 32%! Which this analysis seeks to resolve in high probability buying levels in advance of an expected correction during May.

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Companies

Monday, May 17, 2021

The Most Exciting Biotech Stock Of The Year? / Companies / BioTech

By: FinancialMorningPost

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Commodities

Monday, May 17, 2021

Gold Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have powered higher in recent months, solidifying a strong young upleg.  But the extended-correction low leading into this latest rally has left sector psychology fairly bearish.  Traders are skeptical about gold stocks’ upside potential, wary of another serious selloff.  The gold miners’ just-reported Q1’21 operating and financial results reveal whether their fundamentals support further big gains.

The first quarter of 2021 was rough for the gold stocks.  Their leading and dominant benchmark and trading vehicle remains the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Its $15.3b in net assets in the middle of this week ran 31x bigger than its next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor.  During Q1, GDX dropped a sizable 9.8%.  The gold stocks were increasingly out of favor as gold itself also lost 10.0%.

The gold miners actually proved quite resilient last quarter, as the majors in GDX generally amplify gold’s material moves by 2x to 3x.  Still you couldn’t give away gold stocks in early March as their last extended correction finally bottomed at GDX $30.90.  As these miners’ earnings leverage gold price trends, their stocks got sucked into gold’s vexing momentum selloff.  But as that passed, the gold miners caught a bid.

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Commodities

Monday, May 17, 2021

Junior Gold Miners Should be Rallying – What’s Holding Them Back? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Junior miners may soon suffer a breakdown of the short-term support line. So, what’s responsible for their underperformance of gold and stocks?

Today’s technical part of the analysis is going to be brief, as I have discussed multiple things this week and my comments remain up-to-date. There’s not much to add today, and we’ll go over only one technical chart – the one where we have trading positions – the GDXJ ETF chart. Unlike in the previous days, today I’m going to look at it from the more short-term point of view – through the 4-hour chart.

Before looking at it, please note that yesterday’s (May 13) session was relatively boring in the case of gold futures (they ended the day $1.20 higher), and quite positive for the GLD ETF, at least at first sight, as it closed $0.70 higher. The seemingly odd discrepancy between the two is just a result of different times that are taken into account for calculating both markets’ performance. All in all, yesterday’s session was positive for gold.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 17, 2021

Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Sometimes there are very clear advantages to being in an all-cash position and avoiding the risks in the US/Global markets. For example, you should consider cash as a position when the markets begin to execute a broad market consolidation pattern that often results in many weeks or months of sideways, choppy price activity. You should also consider going to cash when a bigger shift in market trends takes place, putting your account at real risk should there be a 20% to 30%+ downside price trend setting up. Moving your assets away from these risks and into cash as early as possible can save thousands of dollars in unwanted – and worse yet totally avoidable – losses.

I know the rules of the game, and how everyone always says “it is better to ride out the trends and buy into the dips in the long run”. Well, we believe there is a better way to approach these bigger market trends that do not include riding out massive downside price trends – watching our wealth melt away as the markets collapse.  We believe the purpose of actively managing your investments/trades should include a “cash position” as an active instrument in your portfolio.  Why?  Because moving your assets away from risks and into a cash position can often create a major advantage for all types of investors.  We will get into more detail about this later.

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Personal_Finance

Monday, May 17, 2021

Learning the Financial Markets / Personal_Finance / Student Finances

By: Justin_Weinger

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InvestorEducation

Sunday, May 16, 2021

INVESTING IN HIGH RISK TECH STOCKS - ALL OR NOTHING / InvestorEducation / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There is a reason why I don't like discussing investing in high risk stocks and it's nothing to do with the fact that I DO invest in high risk stocks to a limited degree. And that reason is because most of the people I converse with DO NOT UNDERSTAND HOW TO INVEST IN HIGH RISK STOCKS! So my preference is to avoid the subject altogether and stick to discussing that which has a high probability of success and low relative risk of loss. Though the stock market being what it is one never know when the likes of for instance a BP is going to EXPLODE! So stocks can never be risk free no matter what the stock is.

So the starting point before I fire off a list of high risk tech stocks is to explain how I invest in high risk stocks and hopefully my Patrons will be able to incorporate what I am saying into how they view high risk stocks for I have given up on trying to explain to people in the real world, including highly intelligent doctors, as there tends to be a mental block where high risk stocks are concerned i.e. people tend to look in the rear view mirror and see how x or y stock has soared into the stratosphere and thus think it is easy to be placed in for instance the next Tesla or TSM or AMD or whatever. Without understanding the fundamental fact that even if by chance they had invested in say AMD at $2, they would NOT be invested in AMD today at $80 because their short-term mindset would have likely ejected then from the stock at $3 or $4. That's why the starting point has to be to explain how I actually invest in high risk stocks which given exchanges with people tends to be the exact opposite of how many investors perceive high risk stocks and likely why they don't end of up capitalising fully on their investments.

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