Monday, May 21, 2018

Inverted Yield Curve: It’s Definitely Not Different This Time / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

An inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on shorter-dated securities is above that on longer-term bonds; and it has predicted all nine U.S. recessions since 1955, according to Bloomberg. Of course, now that the yield curve is the flattest since 2007—with the 2-10 spread falling to just 45 basis points, from 260bps in 2014--right on cue the carnival barkers on Wall Street have been deployed in full force claiming this key financial barometer is now broken.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Gold’s Near-term Downside Target / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The price of gold moved considerably lower in the past several weeks, despite the pause that we saw in the final part of the previous week. The yellow metal moved below $1,300 and confirmed this move by several daily closes below it. Moreover, gold confirmed the breakdown below the rising medium-term support line that’s based on the daily closing prices of December 2016 and December 2017 lows. Consequently, gold’s likely to move lower and the question is how low can gold decline in the near term.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Is Political Decentralization the Only Hope for Western Civilization? / Politics / US Politics

By: Antonius_Aquinas

A couple of recent articles have once more made the case, at least implicitly, for political decentralization as the only viable path which will begin to solve the seemingly insurmountable political, economic, and social crises which the Western world now faces.

In the last few months, over 3,000 millionaires have fled the hopelessly corrupt and bankrupt state of Illinois.  When asked, 47% of Illinoisans would like to leave the state which, over the last decade, has seen over a half million of its residents flee.  Naturally, this exodus has exacerbated the Land of Lincoln’s financial straits to catastrophic levels.*

Monday, May 21, 2018

Frontier Growth, Catching Up, Falling Behind and Extremely Falling Behind / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: MoneyFacts

The economic growth model a country chooses to implement is very important for its economic development. This is the challenge primarily faced by countries with developing economies which place the process of increasing their level of economic development as one of their main goals in order to advance to the category of countries with developed economies. 

There are different models of economic growth: frontier growth, catching up, and falling behind.Frontier growth which is characteristic to countries (for example, the United States) which create qualitatively new products and new production based on new technologies.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Free Cash on UK Mortgage Deals Intensify / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: MoneyFacts

Borrowers navigating the mortgage maze could well be looking for the best possible package to suit their circumstances, and one of the many perks that can stand out is cashback.

Mortgage deals with cashback may not be a new concept, but moneyfacts.co.uk can reveal that the popularity of such offers is growing: some of the newest deals to be launched onto the market recently include a cashback incentive*, with both the number of deals and average cashback amount on the rise.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Fibonacci And Elliot Wave Predict Stock Market Breakout Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

There is nothing more exciting to us than reading the price action of the charts to see what will happen in the future.  It becomes even more exciting when we find something that everyone else seems to have missed.  Right now, traders need to pay attention to our research because we believe we have correctly identified a breakout pattern that is setting up in the US majors – and everyone seems to have missed it.

Recently, our research team began a quest to properly identify the Elliot Wave structure of the US majors in relation to the recent price congestion after the February 2018 price collapse.  You can read our earlier research post to better understand our conclusions.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Stock Market Ideal Cycle Low Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – The intermediate correction from 2873 is likely to continue until about early June.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, May 21, 2018

5 Effects Of Currency Fluctuations On The Economy / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Submissions

Currency fluctuations are some of the most analyzed aspects of any economy. Slight changes in the value of a currency can send reverberations across the economy. In fact, some currency fluctuations levels can have drastic effects on the health of an economy. Markets like forex and other trading sectors are heavily reliant on how strong or weak a particular currency is. The strength of a currency can also determine how a particular country handles international trade. Indeed, five of the strongest currencies in the world are so influential in the world that many aspects of the global economy are almost tied to them. There are several effects of fluctuations of currencies. Below are some of the most important.

Monday, May 21, 2018

Financial Conditions are Still too Easy for the Stocks Bull Market to End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Investors and traders love to fixate on the absolute level of interest rates.

1. “It’s all over when the 10 year yield reaches 3%”.
2. “It’s all over when the 10 year yield reaches 3.25%”.
3. “It’s all over when the 10 year yield reaches 4%”.
4. “It’s all over when the 10 year yield reaches 4.5%”.

Instead, investors and traders should focus on how interest rates are impacting various aspects of the economy right now. Focus on the RELATIVE relationship.

Sunday, May 20, 2018

US Stock Market Elliott Wave Predictions for 2018 and Beyond / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, an interesting concept was discussed among our research team – a very interesting concept about the markets.  As many of you know, part of the process or research is to test conclusions that may lie outside common thinking.  While we were discussing the Fibonacci and Elliot Wave structures of the US market using longer-term charts, one item kept intriguing our research team.  This one item could change everything in terms of how we are thinking about the US markets and Global markets.

Almost everyone knows that Elliot Wave (EW) theory consists of Five Waves to complete a major EW Cycle.  The most common form of EW price cycles is A, C & E (or 1, 3 & 5) waves advancing and B & D (or 2 & 4) waves declining for an uptrend.

Sunday, May 20, 2018

Saudi Arabia Stock Market Technical Update: Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) / Stock-Markets / Saudi Arabia

By: MarketsToday

• Larger advance stalls at the 50% retracement zone.
• Deeper short-term pullback may occur.
• Followed by advance to new highs.

Sunday, May 20, 2018

Are You Still Fearful of Cryptos? / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Avi_Gilburt

Ryan Wilday: Since leaving my job as a corporate design manager to analyze and trade cryptos (among other things), I’ve gained new attention from old colleagues. In circles of my former profession, I’m the guy that retired to trade for a living. While my departure from corporate life was something I planned for many years, cryptos certainly gave those plans a shot in the arm.

Regardless of how it came about, my early ‘retirement’ carries some lore; ‘He must have made millions on Bitcoin’ I’m sure some say.

Sunday, May 20, 2018

US Stocks - Why I am Short-term Bearish, Medium-term Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

To be clear: the Medium-Long Term Model currently states that:

1. The S&P 500 (U.S. stock market) is still in a bull market.
2. This 11.8% “small correction” won’t turn into a “significant correction”. Hence the stock market’s medium term downside is limited.

The Medium-Long Term Model predicts “significant corrections” based on a set of conditions. When none of those conditions are met (i.e. right now), it is highly unlikely for a “small correction” to turn into a “significant correction”. This means that the stock market will eventually make a new high given enough time.

Sunday, May 20, 2018

Looking for a Turn in Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: The_Gold_Report

Rudi Fronk and Jim Anthony, cofounders of Seabridge Gold, reflect on market factors that are driving current fluctuations in the gold price.

For nearly four months now, gold has been pressured lower by a rising dollar; the inverse correlation has been almost exact. Gold has dropped 5.2% from its January 25, 2018 close of $1,362 to its May 16 close of $1,291.50. Meanwhile, the US dollar index has risen 5.4% from this year’s low close of 88.50 on February 15, 2018, to its close on May 16 at 93.26. In the past few days, shorts have jumped in to press their luck, judging from the increase in CME open interest while the price is falling.

Saturday, May 19, 2018

GDX Gold Mining Stock Fundamentals 2018 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The major gold miners’ stocks are still largely grinding sideways, mired in a bearish sentiment wasteland.  Traders tend to assume low stock prices must be righteous, reflecting weak fundamentals rather than poor psychology.  But once a quarter earnings seasons’ bright fundamental sunlight parts the obscuring fogs of popular sentiment.  The gold miners’ just-reported Q1’18 results prove they remain deeply undervalued.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Companies trading in the States are required to file 10-Qs with the US Securities and Exchange Commission by 45 calendar days after quarter-ends.  Canadian companies have similar requirements.  In other countries with half-year reporting, many companies still partially report quarterly.

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Semiconductor Stock Market Canaries: Chirp, Warble… Soon a Croak and Silence? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Gary_Tanashian

In light of earnings reactions in the Semiconductor Equipment sector, it’s time for an update of a theme we have had in play since November, 2017

The canary is no longer chirping in a healthy manner and the economy’s coal mine has a toxic gas leak. While the recent Lam Research (LRCX) earnings report was pretty good and there were positive aspects to that of Applied Materials (AMAT), these highly cyclical companies that have been at the front end of the entire economic cycle that had its beginnings in 2013 are showing signs of wear.

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Bitcoin Beyond the Bubble - Video / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

You know what’s almost as rewarding as being right about Bitcoin? The satisfaction of saying “I told you so” to all the powerful naysayers who scoffed at crypto years before it became today’s most profitable trend.

And that’s what the new documentary “Bitcoin: Beyond the Bubble” does so well, capturing the establishment freakout we in the crypto world have painstakingly endured for so many years.

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Welsh Gold Being Hyped Due To Harry Meghan Royal Wedding? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: GoldCore

– Welsh gold and the misconceptions surrounding it – GoldCore speak to China Central Television (CCTV)
– Welsh gold mired in misconceptions, namely that it is ‘rarest’ and most ‘sought after’ gold in world
– Investors to be reminded that all mined gold is rare and homogenous
– Nothing chemically different between Welsh gold and that mined elsewhere
– Investors led to believe Welsh gold is more valuable, despite lack of authenticity in some Welsh gold products
– Peak gold: We tell Beijing’s largest TV network that Welsh gold is limited but so too is gold everywhere

Friday, May 18, 2018

Three Drivers of Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We cannot value gold. It does not generate any cash flows, which we could discount. But it doesn’t mean that the price of gold changes randomly. Market sentiment is powerful in the precious metals market – but the same applies to other markets (after all, humans are emotional creatures). However, it does not operate in a void. Actually, there are some important fundamental drivers at work. Just like in the cosmos. It seems to be empty space – but gravity works there. Similarly, the precious metal market seems to be very emotional and without any logic, but when you look closely, you will discover important forces in action. What are they?

Friday, May 18, 2018

Bringing the Wild West back to Alaska / Politics / US Politics

By: Stephen_Merrill

Amid Alaska's deep recession with no end in sight, it is the city of Anchorage that suffers the most. Beyond losing jobs and longtime residents on a sharp curve downward, Anchorage has been afflicted by a spike in crime, including violent crime. Downtown Anchorage is dying slowly.

That is quite a conundrum for a place that fate seemed destined to reward as beautiful and prosperous forever, given what the natural world already provides. The remedy I'd like to suggest for Southcentral Alaska is one that has brought sudden, massive economic growth to places far less likely to succeed than Anchorage.