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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Currencies

Monday, August 12, 2019

U.S. Currency Wars With China—Past And Present / Currencies / Currency War

By: Steve_H_Hanke

In a purely political move, the Trump administration (read: the U.S. Treasury) has branded China as a currency manipulator. This is an act of war. After President Trump announced that even more tariffs would be imposed on China, the markets took the value of the Chinese yuan down a notch or two. So, who was “manipulating” the yuan, Beijing or Washington? Well, it looks like Washington is engaging in yet another Asian currency war.

As it turns out, the United States has a long history of waging currency wars in Asia. We all know the sad case of Japan. The U.S. claimed that unfair Japanese trading practices were ballooning its bilateral trade deficit with Japan. To “correct” the so-called problem, the U.S. demanded that Japan adopt an ever-appreciating yen policy. The Japanese complied and the yen appreciated against the greenback from 360 in 1971 to 80 in 1995 (and 106, today). But, this didn't close the U.S. trade deficit with Japan. Indeed, Japan's contribution to the overall U.S. trade deficit reached almost 60% in 1991. And, if that wasn't enough, the yen's appreciation pushed Japan's economy into a deflationary quagmire.

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Commodities

Monday, August 12, 2019

Will Gold Continue to Outperform Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Submissions

Gold Strength Dominates the Markets

The recent rally in Gold has been hard to ignore. The yellow metal is certainly showing a lot of strength. But unlike prior rallies, the current one stands out in several ways.

For starters, Gold is trading at record levels against four of the seven major currencies. Looking at just spot Gold against the dollar does not represent just how strong Gold is at the moment. But not only that, Gold is rallying without the common correlations that we have seen in the past. Specifically, equities are not really under a whole lot of pressure at the moment. Neither is the dollar. In fact, the greenback just broke to a fresh high in the past few weeks.
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Commodities

Monday, August 12, 2019

All Eyes On Copper / Commodities / Copper

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Copper is a fairly strong measure of the strength and capacity of the global economy and global manufacturing.  Right now, Copper has been under quite a bit of pricing pressure and has fallen from levels above $4.50 (near 2011) to levels near $2.55.  Most recently, Copper has rotated higher to levels near $3.25 after President Trump was elected on November 2016, yet has recently fallen as trade and global economic concerns become more intense.

This should be viewed as a strong warning sign that institutional traders and investors are very concerned that the future economic and manufacturing activities throughout the world are continuing to contract.  Copper is used in various forms throughout all types of manufacturing and consumer products, such as computers, building & infrastructure, electronics, chemical & medical use as well as automobile and aircraft manufacturing.  It makes sense that copper prices would be a leading indicator for much of the global economy and relate to economic output and capacity.

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Commodities

Monday, August 12, 2019

History of Yield Curve Inversions and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The inversion of the yield curve is of crucial importance as it has historically been one of the most reliable recessionary gauges. Consequently, we invite you to read our today’s article about the history of the yield curve inversions and find out whether the recession is coming, and what does it mean for the gold market.

We keep our promises. In the previous edition of the Market Overview, we promised our Readers to “dig even deeper into the predictive power of the yield curve”. As a refresher, please take a look at the chart below. It shows the U.S. Treasury yield curve, or actually not the whole curve, but the spread between 10-year and 3-month government bonds. As one can see, that difference is still negative (as of July 19). It means that the yield curve remains inverted (on a daily basis) since May 2019 (we abstract from the short-lived dip in March 2019).

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Commodities

Monday, August 12, 2019

Precious Metals Soar on Falling Yields, Currency Turmoil / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

What a wild week it’s been for investors. 

The threat of global trade wars and currency wars sparked big swings across all major asset classes.  Bond yields dove toward historic lows.  Stocks plunged earlier in the week before rebounding sharply by Thursday.  And precious metals rode a huge safe-haven wave higher.

Gold prices eclipsed the $1,500 level on Wednesday for the first time in over six years. Meanwhile, silver pushed above $17 an ounce to record a one-year high. Both metals are up over 4% for the week.

The money metals are becoming increasingly attractive as President Donald Trump ramps up his battles against China abroad and the Federal Reserve at home.

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Companies

Monday, August 12, 2019

Why GraphQL? The Benefits Explained / Companies / Internet

By: Sumeet_Manhas

GraphQL is a query language that was created in 2012 by Facebook. It aims to provide people with an alternative solution to the conventional REST API architecture. At its core, GraphQL offers a syntax that describes how data should be asked for, i.e. a Schema. GraphQL operates by creating a single endpoint that has the responsibility of accepting queries, making it database agnostic. This is as opposed to having a reliance on the approach REST API follows, which involves there being different endpoints for each service. In this blog post, we are going to give you a further insight into GraphQL by explaining the advantages.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Is the Stock Market Making a V-shaped Recovery? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market continues to rally. V-shaped rallies are uncommon, but not impossible. Today’s headlines:

  1. V-shaped bounce
  2. Volatility is falling
  3. % of stocks above their 50 dma is rising
  4. AAII sentiment crashed
  5. NAAIM sentiment crashed
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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Precious Metals and Stocks VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We’re borrowing a term from the movie Red October (source) that describes an unusual change of direction for a Russian submarine with the intent to seek out enemies and unknown targets – called a “Crazy Ivan”.  We are using this term because we believe the markets are about to pull a very unusual “Crazy Ivan” move of their own – reverting to unknown price levels while the US/Global markets attempt to seek out risk, support, resistance and other unknown “revaluation” targets in the process.

Our belief is that a key cycle date, August 19, 2019, will be the start of a breakdown in the US markets that aligns with some outside type of catalyst event.  It could be that foreign central banks issue some news or warning at that time or it could be that Asia/China issue some type of catalyst to the event.  We don’t know what the catalyst will be but we can guess that it will be related to geopolitics or the global economy/credit/debt issues.  God forbid it to be some type of war or human crisis event – we really don’t need that right now.

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Politics

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Social Media Civil War / Politics / Social Media

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The US government has to come up with very very strong legislation for social media, and it has to do that very soon. Because if it doesn’t, it risks those same social media inciting a civil war (that’s no hyperbole, that is real) on American soil.

And beyond as well, but as Donald Trump said about European efforts to curtail Twitter, Facebook et al’s activities, they’re American companies and hence America’s responsibility. Well, cool, but that means you have to do your job, and you ain’t doing it. Those EU efforts by the way were all about financial issues, tax paying etc., not inciting civil wars or being undemocratic. In short, Brussels doesn’t get it yet either.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Gold and the Bond Yield Continuum / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

Have you heard the news? US Treasury bonds are sky rocketing as it turns out there is no inflation amid a global central bank NIRP-a-thon and race to the currency bottom. Going the other way, our 30yr Treasury yield Continuum is burrowing southward.

If you check out yesterday’s post you’ll see proof that the 2018 NFTRH view that people should tune out the bond experts instructing BOND BEAR MARKET!! was 100% on target.

But today the din is coming from the opposite pole. Everywhere you look on the financial websites it’s now about tanking yields, decelerating growth, trade war damage and deflation. Here is the 30 year bond yield (TYX), which is front and center in this hysteria (click the charts below for the clearest view). That is one impulsive looking drop.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Traders: Which Markets Should You Trade? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Submissions

As technology advances and trading innovation continues, many traders want to diversify their investments. The prospect of making more profits have led many into trading markets they never thought possible. Although traders are continually seeking better markets and improved opportunities to explore, not many are in the know of the types of trading instruments available in this digital age. Surprisingly, traders are not the only ones looking to improve their chances of earning more. Even seemingly different markets are now attempting to steal each other's market share. For instance, traders no longer need to buy physical gold or even from a futures contract to participate in the movement of gold prices; instead, they can now buy an exchange traded fund (ETF). With that being said, similar scenarios are now possible with stock, currencies, commodities, and other investments. Hence, traders generally have a wealth of diversified opportunities they can leverage to their individual circumstances.
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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 10, 2019

US Corporate Debt Is at Risk of a Flash Crash / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

The world is awash in debt.

While some countries are more indebted than others, very few are in good shape.

The entire world is roughly 225% leveraged to its economic output. Emerging markets are a bit less and advanced economies a little more.

But regardless, everyone’s “real” debt is likely much bigger, since the official totals miss a lot of unfunded liabilities and other obligations.

Debt is an asset owned by the lender. It has a price, which—like anything else—can go up or down. The main variable is the lender’s confidence in repayment, which is always uncertain.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 10, 2019

EURODOLLAR futures above 2016 highs: FED to cut over 100 bps quickly / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: QUANTO

The sceptre of recesion is growing worldwide. German industrial production registered its biggest annual decline in almost a decade when it reported numbers in June. We covered it here The result was country’s flattest yield curve since the financial crisis.

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Politics

Saturday, August 10, 2019

Neoliberalism Has Met Its Match in China / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: Ellen_Brown

When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, commentators were asking why. According to official data, the economy was rebounding, unemployment was below 4% and gross domestic product growth was above 3%. If anything, by the Fed’s own reasoning, it should have been raising rates.

Market pundits explained that we’re in a trade war and a currency war. Other central banks were cutting their rates, and the Fed had to follow suit in order to prevent the dollar from becoming overvalued relative to other currencies. The theory is that a cheaper dollar will make American products more attractive in foreign markets, helping our manufacturing and labor bases.

Over the weekend, President Trump followed the rate cuts by threatening to impose, on Sept. 1, a new 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese products. China responded by suspending imports of U.S. agricultural products by state-owned companies and letting the value of the yuan drop. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 770 points, its worst day in 2019. The war was on.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 10, 2019

Market’s flight-to-safety: Should You Buy Stocks Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market and bond yields recovered today from an early morning decline. Meanwhile, financial markets have exhibited some extreme flight-to-quality over the past few days. Today’s headlines:

  1. Lots of gaps
  2. Put/Call ratio remains high
  3. Flight to quality: part 1
  4. Flight to quality: part 2
  5. Similarities between today and 2016
  6. Bullish Percent falling to a new low
  7. Gold spiked (again)
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Companies

Saturday, August 10, 2019

The Cold, Hard Math Tells Netflix Stock Could Crash 70% / Companies / Internet

By: Stephen_McBride

It’s official... it’s the beginning of the end for Netflix (NFLX).

As you may have heard, the online video company made a troubling announcement...

This quarter, for the first time ever, it lost American subscribers. Hundreds of thousands of them.

The stock plunged more than 11% on the news.

I’ve been “sounding the alarm” on Netflix’s troubled business since last July when its stock was trading above $400.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 09, 2019

Our Custom Index Charts Suggest Stock Markets Are In For A Wild Ride / Stock-Markets / Austrian Economics

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past week, our members have been emailing us and asking us “what’s going to happen next” and “any updates on the move in metals and the US stock markets”.  With this incredible downside move prompted by the US Fed and the US/China trade talk failure, it certainly appears that the markets are poised for something big and dramatic.

We dove into our custom indicator charts to try to get a better gauge of the current market environment and to help illustrate that our research team has been all over this move for months.  Before we get started, we want to urge our followers to read the following research posts :

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Currencies

Friday, August 09, 2019

Bitcoin Price Triggers Ahead / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

With the stock market going down, Bitcoin is viewed as a safe haven asset. But is this story really important? We have a different factor to focus on.

Bitcoin goes up, the stock market goes down. This is the kind of story we have seen now. And it is an appealing one. In an article on the CNBC website, we read:

Bitcoin soared 9% on Monday, performing like a safe haven asset as it edged past $11,000 for the first time since around mid-July.

The price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed as high as $11,860, according to CoinDesk data, hitting a more than 3-week high. Bitcoin’s value now accounts for nearly 70% of the global crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap.

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Companies

Friday, August 09, 2019

Walmart Is Coming for Amazon / Companies / Retail Sector

By: Robert_Ross

Late last year, the company overtook Apple to became the third-largest online retailer in the US. Only Amazon and eBay are larger.

Walmart is quickly growing its online presence by scooping up smaller online retailers like Jet.com, which sells everything from laptops to sunscreen—often at a healthy discount.

Walmart bought Jet in 2016 for $3.3 billion. Since then, Walmart’s online sales have shot up 78%—from $13.4 billion to $23.8 billion.

And it shows no sign of slowing down. Last quarter, Walmart’s online sales grew 43%.

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Commodities

Thursday, August 08, 2019

We Are So Stupid When It Comes To Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

In 3rd grade, my teacher had a sign up at the front of the class which read: PUT BRAIN IN GEAR BEFORE ENGAGING MOUTH

This made an impression upon me as a 3rd grader. Yet, many adults have yet to learn this lesson.

It seems that every single analyst that you read regarding the gold market parrots the exact same thesis: If the dollar rises gold falls, and if the dollar falls gold rises. This is the first point in which these analysts have not put their brains in gear before engaging their mouth.

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