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Twenty Five Financial Market Forecasts and Investment Trends for 2010

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010 Jan 03, 2010 - 12:37 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHappy New Year!

2009, the year of the stealth stocks bull market has ended and now we enter 2010, the year of the stealth economic boom (above trend growth), despite having been a busy bee these past few weeks, so far I have managed to complete in-depth analysis for just 2 out of 5 forecast trends for 2010, UK inflation and economy with Interest rates, housing and stock market to now complete during January as well as the Inflation mega-trend Ebook.


Meanwhile this New Year special features a selection of 25 recent analysis that specifically forecast financial market, economic trends and present investment outlooks for 2010.

Also listed are the 15 most popular articles read during 2009 in advance of the results of the Market Oracle Readership Vote of 2009 and Master Forecaster Awards in the coming week.

Your analyst wishing you all a prosperous New Year.

Nadeem Walayat
Editor, The Market Oracle
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Twenty Five Featured Financial Market Forecasts and Investment Trends for 2010

Global Quantitative Easing to Drive Across Gold, Silver and Stocks Bull Markets During 2010

By: Clive_Maund

The year ended with a typical light volume"Santa Claus" rally. Understandably there is considerable trepidation about what the New Year will bring after the prolonged rally from last March and the known fact that would-be sellers have been holding off in recent weeks, waiting for the New Year to sell for tax reasons. It doesn't look good, especially given the rather scary sudden drop in the last hour of trading before the Christmas holiday.

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Financial Markets Outlook 2010, Wealth Protection and Investment Insurance in Unstable Times

By: Elite_E_Services

We are not providing the solution, we are asking the question, how to protect wealth in uncertain times?  The financial crisis has changed the lives of millions.  One of them, Glen Pizzolorusso, used to be a subprime mortgage broker making more than $100,000 a month:

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Sovereign Debt Crisis Could Cripple the Euro During 2010

By: Bryan_Rich

For the better part of 2009 the U.S. dollar was the world’s most hated currency. But it’s looking increasingly likely the tables could turn in 2010. And the euro could take over that unenviable title

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Which Materials ETF Investing 2010

By: Richard_Shaw

If you chose to supplement your sector-diversified core US equities stock holdings with a diversified materials stocks ETF, which one is best for you?

There are nine possibilities, of which three, and maybe four, make sense at this time for our purposes and possibly for yours. Those exchange-traded funds are XLB, IYM, VAW and maybe MXI. They have more favorable profiles considering these three attributes:

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Presidential Cycle Impact on the Stock Market 2010

By: Sy_Harding

In last week’s column I discussed academic studies that confirm the remarkable consistency of the market’s annual seasonal pattern, how with few exceptions markets in the majority of countries tend to make most of their gains in the winter months, and experience most of their serious corrections and bear market declines between May and November.

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Are You Ready for a Stock Market Crash of 2010?

By: Oakshire_Financial

In last week’s column I discussed academic studies that confirm the remarkable consistency of the market’s annual seasonal pattern, how with few exceptions markets in the majority of countries tend to make most of their gains in the winter months, and experience most of their serious corrections and bear market declines between May and November.

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UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast 2010 and 2011, The Stealth Election Boom

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The British Economy as with other developed economies entered 2009 in recession and on the brink of Depression, after unlimited bailouts , hitting the Quantitative Easing panic button and running a huge 15% of GDP budget deficit, the UK economy has managed to claw its way back out of recession as the Q4 data will show when released during late January 2010.

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Why I am Bullish on India Economy and Stock Market 2010

By: G_Abraham

India is 1/10 th the size of US economy and EU economy and yet holds far more promise and resillience than both these economies combined. While the world focuses on Chinese growth albeit with skepticism and caution at the numbers being thrown out, no such aspersions have ever been cast at India. Indian growth has been a transparent and extremely well led, consumer and infra story.

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Is the U.S. Housing Market Recovery for Real?

By: Martin Hutchinson

Existing home sales surprised the markets by rising 7.4% to an annual rate of 6.54 million units in November, the highest since February 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That's only 10% below the all-time peak in 2005.

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U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds At Risk Following Fannie and Freddie Debt Monetization

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The background noise has been considerable. The US Congress, the august body that often passes legislation without reading it, evaluates a new initiative to reinstitute the Glass Steagall Act. Pass it, don't read it! Great idea! In the wisdom from post-Depression seven decades ago, the same Congress imposed firewall separation among the commercial banks, the brokerage houses, and the insurance firms in order to prevent systemic financial sector failure. That is precisely what happened in the last two years, without proper recognition or diagnosis, except by this and some analysts. Insolvent systems do not spring back to life with grandiose infusions of phony money and complete covers for fraud. They remain insolvent.

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United States Debt Ridden Road to Perdition

By: James_Quinn

Decade after decade, Americans have voted for intellectually and morally bankrupt dullards that promise them more goodies under the tree. Every day is Christmas in Washington DC. Long-term means the next election cycle to these traitors of the Republic. I have written ad nauseum about the impending financial cataclysm that awaits our nation. I have spent countless hours documenting the unsustainable path of our politicians’ financial decisions and lack of courage in addressing the forthcoming tragedy that grows closer by the day. Our political system is so corrupt and dysfunctional that there is absolutely no chance that our path will be altered at the voting booth. Government programs are fashioned, but never finished. The IRS tax code consists of 3.4 million words covering 7,500 pages of payoffs to business lobbyists. Simplicity is a virtue

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Marc Faber on What to Expect for Financial Markets 2010

By: Marc Faber

The INVESTMENT MAGAZINE reports about Investment Guru Marc Fabers's vision of 2010

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Stock Market, Commodity and Dollar Forecasts for 2010

By: Tony_Sagami

Predicting the future is not easy, but at the end of last year I made five for 2009. How’d I do? Pretty darn good if I say so myself.

In this column, I’ll review my 2009 market predictions and more importantly, tell you what’s in store for 2010 and how to play the markets.

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Low Volume Stocks Bear Market Rally and the Real Estate Bust 2010

By: Claus_Vogt

One of the most basic technical rules says that sound stock market rallies are accompanied by high and rising volume. By contrast, bear market rallies are characterized by low and falling activity.

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John Hussman Says Stock Market Bulls Dancing on the Edge of a Cliff

By: Mike_Shedlock

Last week, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 dropped below 2%, versus a historical average closer to double that level. While part of the reason for the paucity of yield in the current market can be explained by the 20% plunge in dividend payouts over the past year, as financial companies have cut or halted dividends to conserve cash, the fact is that current payouts are not at all out of line with their historical relationship to revenues, and even a full recovery of the past year's dividend cuts would still leave the yield at a paltry 2.5%. The October 1987 crash occurred from a yield of 2.65%, which was, at the time, the lowest yield observed in history, matched only by the 1972 peak prior to the brutal 1973-74 bear market

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Stock Market Forecast 2010

By: Jon D. Markman

I have been surprised to see the air thick with pessimism in recent weeks. Not so much the stock market, where the sentiment indexes show the bulls dominating the bears by slightly more than 52%. But among the general public.

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Why is the U.S. Dollar Rising, Treasury Bond Market Failure 2010?

By: G_Abraham

Now am not a trader nor do I rely on charts but those who do, tell me that dollar has broken a “falling wedge” and is all set to rally a great deal in the coming weeks. Most reaserch houses have put in dollar targets of anywhere between 78 and 83.

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Agri-Food's Investing to Profit From China and India Economic and Consumer Growth

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Living in Florida, as this author does, often comes with minor problems. As one of the biggest batches of cold, snowy winter storms ravages North America, records of all kinds are being broken. Dallas, as an example, had a white Christmas for the first time in 80 years. But, the UK also has problems. Winter weather there may have damaged the Brussels sprouts crop. Is that not real suffering? Relative to all that, what is our problem in Florida? Cannot remember where we put that pair of socks last year.

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U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash Not Stocks the Big Story of 2010

By: Graham_Summers

Let’s pretend the US is a company.

For starters, this company has a massive debt problem. The official number is $12 trillion and counting, which is roughly the equivalent of one year’s annual production. On the surface, that’s not TOO bad.

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Why Gold Will be the “Greatest Trade Ever”

By: Peter Krauth

Forget about all the forecasts being made for 2010. Here's my prediction for 2015: An entirely new name - John A. Paulson - will grace the coveted top of the annual Forbes billionaires list.

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Gold Pullback to Support, A Historic Perspective

By: Howard_Katz

Today we stand on the threshold of one of the great moves in financial history.  The signal comes as what is called a pullback to support.  It will be my goal in this article to convey to you the immense power of such a formation.  So simple, yet fraught with such potential for profit.

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UK CPI Inflation Forecast 2010, Imminent and Sustained Spike Above 3%

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The UK inflation forecast for 2010 is first of a three part series of in depth analysis as part of the inflation mega-trend, with UK interest rates and GDP growth forecast to follow in the coming week.

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Gold The Greatest Currency Trade of the Millennium

By: Chris Weber

Even though gold has been in a correction during these last few months, it is important to step back and see how it has out-performed every other currency since this decade, century, and millennium began.

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Financial Markets and Economic Forecasts 2010, Recovery or More Crisis?

By: William_R_Thomson

Experts offer differing views, with some predicting 2010 to be a difficult year and others saying it will see recovery continuing

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Staggered Return to Global Economic Growth For 2010

By: Northern Trust

We are ushering in 2010 on a note of guarded hope, unlike the dawn of 2009 when great apprehension about the global economy was the predominant theme. Three broad aspects stand out as the curtain closes on 2009. First, recession is now a matter of history. Second, massive financial sector blowups are mostly behind us, but smaller yet significant tempests cannot be ruled out.

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The Most Popular Financial Markets and Economic Analysis of 2009

1. Gld ETF Warning, Tungsten Filled Fake Gold Bars

By: Rob_Kirby
Nov 12, 2009 - 12:22 PM

“Gold Finger - A New Take On Operation Grand Slam With A Tungsten Twist”

I’ve already reported on irregular physical gold settlements which occurred in London, England back in the first week of October, 2009.  Specifically, these settlements involved the intermediation of at least one Central Bank [The Bank of England] to resolve allocated settlements on behalf of J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank – who DID NOT have the gold bullion that they had sold short and were contracted to deliver.  At the same time I reported on two other unusual occurrences:

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2. Depression 2009 The Largest Train Wreck in Economic History

By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Jan 06, 2009 - 10:52 AM

Change is a constant whether perceived or not; but only when we see it do we believe it has occurred. Then, it is too late.

The phrase, speculative bubble, is used to describe the financial tumescence that characterizes the often manic unfounded rise of asset values. The phrase, however, is inadequate for it fails to convey the destructive aftermath that follows; for such purposes, train wreck, is a better description. In 2009, the largest train wreck in economic history is about to occur.

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3. UK Interest Rate Forecast 2009

By: Nadeem_Walayat
Oct 08, 2008 - 02:06 AM

The credit crisis has intensified during the last few weeks to a new manic stage as entire countries are put at risk of bankruptcy due to their banking system rescue attempts exploding liabilities, as the demand goes out for 100% guarantees of depositors and country after country buckles under the pressure so as to prevent a collapse of their individual banking systems. However ever increasing and desperate government bailout cash in the form of escalating amounts of daily interbank liquidity, capital injections, and mortgage bond buy back schemes in addition to issuing depositor guarantees increases the liabilities of ALL countries the immediate consequences of which are being played out in ever increasing volatility in the currency markets and stock exchanges as record breaking points swings take place on alternative days. In such a panic stricken climate there are increasingly deafening calls are for immediate interest rate cuts across the western world including for an Imminent UK Interest Rate Cut.

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4. The Real Reason for the Global Financial Crisis…the Story No One’s Talking About

By: Shah Gilani
Oct 08, 2008 - 02:06 AM

Are you shell-shocked? Are you wondering what's really going on in the market? The truth is probably more frightening than even your worst fears. And yet, you won't hear about it anywhere else because “they” can't tell you. “They” are the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Department, and they can't tell you what's really going on because there's nothing they can do about it, except what they've been trying to do – add liquidity.

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5. Gold Price Forecast 2009

By: Nadeem_Walayat
Jan 22, 2009 - 12:54 PM

My existing forecast for the Gold price trend during 2009 as of October 2008 has been for a volatile sideways trading range of between $930 and $700, subsequent price action has so far been in line with this. Therefore this analysis seeks to update the Gold Price expectations for 2009 in the light of "Quantative Easing" aka "Money Printing" as many gold investors are taking their cue from the recovery in gold stocks for much brighter prospects for gold to target a breakout to new highs during 2009.

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6. UK Housing Market Crash and Depression Forecast 2007 to 2012

By: Nadeem_Walayat
Jan 04, 2009 - 11:19 PM

Recent house price data as released by the Halifax showed that UK house prices have plunged by more than 20% from the peak of August 2007, which has fulfilled much of the original forecast made in August 2007 for a minimum fall of 15% for the UK housing market and 25% for London, therefore this analysis seeks to project the forecast trend for UK house prices for the next 3 years into 2012.

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7. UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009

By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dec 30, 2008 - 03:44 AM

UK inflation for November as measured by the CPI continued its sharp decline, falling by 0.4% to 4.1% from the peak of 5.2% for Septembers data. The Bank of England would have been aware of the sharp fall in Octobers inflation at the earlier November MPC meeting that saw an near unprecedented panic interest rate cut of 1.5%, followed by a further 1% cut in December that has taken UK interest rates sharply lower from a peak of 5% in early October to stand at just 2% today. The interest rate cuts have been accompanied by BOE statements that UK economy is expected to contract by 2% GDP during 2009, that puts the UK on target to experience a worse recession than that of the early 1990's. However as my earlier analysis suggested that the UK could experience a decline of as much as 3% for 2009 which would make this recession just as bad if not worse than that of the early 1980's which wiped out much of Britain's manufacturing base.

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8. CAUTION: Stock Market Crash /Collapse Dead Ahead Say Faber, Rogers, Dent and Celente

By: Mac_Slavo
Oct 02, 2009 - 09:33 AM

After a massive upswing in US stocks over the last six months, the recent rally may finally be coming to an end. It seems that the trend of rising stocks on bad or better than expected news may be in a reversal, as evidenced by market participants’ caution over the last couple of weeks. For those that follow contrarian investors like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente and Harry Dent, this should come as no surprise.

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9. Emerging Giants Russia, China, Brazil and India Looming Collapse 2009

By: Martin Weiss
Jan 12, 2009 - 01:54 PM

After a massive upswing in US stocks over the last six months, the recent rally may finally be coming to an end. It seems that the trend of rising stocks on bad or better than expected news may be in a reversal, as evidenced by market participants’ caution over the last couple of weeks. For those that follow contrarian investors like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente and Harry Dent, this should come as no surprise.

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10. Ten Major Threats Facing the U.S. Dollar in 2009

Eric_deCarbonnel
Jan 02, 2009 - 06:41 AM

After a massive upswing in US stocks over the last six months, the recent rally may finally be coming to an end. It seems that the trend of rising stocks on bad or better than expected news may be in a reversal, as evidenced by market participants’ caution over the last couple of weeks. For those that follow contrarian investors like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente and Harry Dent, this should come as no surprise.

Read Article

11. Nouriel Roubini 2009 U.S. GDP Forecasting 40% Home Mortgage Failures?

Andrew_Butter
Jan 08, 2009 - 12:52 PM

After a massive upswing in US stocks over the last six months, the recent rally may finally be coming to an end. It seems that the trend of rising stocks on bad or better than expected news may be in a reversal, as evidenced by market participants’ caution over the last couple of weeks. For those that follow contrarian investors like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Gerald Celente and Harry Dent, this should come as no surprise.

Read Article

12. Great Depression 2009 Follows $30 Trillion Deflation

Kurt_Kasun
Dec 22, 2008 - 03:33 PM

Not Your Grandfather's Depression - It will be much worse, in many respects.

The chart below, borrowed from Dr. Marc Faber's Market Commentary December 1, 2008, is devastating. The chart shows a stunning loss of $30 trillion stock market wealth around the world. By some estimates, combined losses in commodities, stocks, bonds, real estate are greater than $60 trillion. This is beyond rescue.

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13. Baby Boomers- Your Generation's Crisis Has Arrived

James_Quinn
Dec 22, 2008 - 03:33 PM

"There is a mysterious cycle in human events. To some generations, much is given. Of other generations, much is expected. This Generation has a rendezvous with destiny." Franklin Roosevelt – 1936

President Roosevelt was correct. The generation he was speaking to was already dealing with the worst financial crisis in the history of the United States, the Great Depression. By 1945, over 400,000 of this generation had lost their lives. Another 600,000 men were wounded. Much was expected and much was sacrificed. Every generation has a rendezvous with destiny.

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14. Stock Market Crash 2009: Fine Tuning DJIA Target To 5,800

Eric_Chevrette
Feb 02, 2009 - 03:25 AM

Before we turn our attention towards the need to do some fine tuning about the DJIA target around the end of the current bear leg with global stocks, it might be appropriate to look back and see where we do come from, especially with regard to market volatility ( VIX ).

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15. Current Economic Crisis Worse than the Great Depression

Dr_Krassimir_Petrov
Nov 02, 2008 - 08:08 PM

The mainstream media and Wall Street have reached the consensus that the current credit crisis is the worst since the post-war period. George Soros' statement that ”the world faces the worst finance crisis since WWII” epitomizes the collective wisdom. The crisis is currently the ultimate scapegoat for all the economic evils that currently plague the global financial system and the global economy – from collapsing stock markets of the world to food shortages in third world counties. We are repeatedly assured that the ultimate fault lies with the Credit Crisis itself; if there were no Credit Crisis, all of these terrible things would never have happened in the economy and the financial markets.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.


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