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Featured Articles: GEMS of the Week
Category: Euro-Zone
The news items published under this category are as follows.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Deepening Recession in Germany and Across the Euro-zone / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The European Central Bank (ECB) will be cutting its refi rate again next week (December 4), the only question being whether the policymakers will opt for a third consecutive 50bp reduction, or bite the bullet and make a larger cut. Last week various Governing Council members were making it clear that they expect a 50bp easing, but after this morning's data releases some may argue for a more significant move. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Deteriorating Economic Outlook for Germany and Euro-zone / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Last week's PMI surveys for the Euro-zone and for its various countries warned that the outlook for Q4 is deteriorating sharply. To date, the strongest of the major Euro-zone economies clearly has been Germany, which may actually escape a technical recession if consumer demand keeps Q3 real GDP growth in positive territory. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 03, 2008
ECB Signals Imminent European Interest Rate Cuts / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
For the first time in over five years the European Central Bank (ECB) today shifted its bias toward easing. In his subsequent comments, President Trichet stated that the ECB had "no bias" regarding future monetary policy moves, and refused to be drawn on the likelihood of a lower refi rate before year's end. However, the Council reportedly discussed only two options: leaving rates unchanged or easing. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Euro-zone Economy Sinking Fast Towards Recession / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
A month ago, two of our favorite leading indicators for the Euro-zone economy were pointing to a slowdown but not an outright stop, and we were still hopeful that signs of recovery could be cropping up by the end of this year. One month on, the outlook has deteriorated.
Germany's Ifo business climate index for September - a poll of around 7,000 firms - deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, coming in at 92.9 (94.8 in August). The gauge of current conditions dropped to 99.8 (103.2 in August) and the expectations index slipped to 86.5 (from 87.0), its lowest level in 15 years. The overall index is still above the lows recorded in late 2002, the last time Germany was headed into recession.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Easing EuroZone Inflation Sends Euro Tumbling / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bloomberg is reporting European Economic Confidence Drops, Inflation Eases . Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Europeans' confidence in the economic outlook fell more than economists forecast this month as the economy teetered on the brink of a recession. Inflation unexpectedly slowed.
The euro pared gains after the reports, which signaled the slump in economic growth is extending through the third quarter and a 20 percent drop in oil prices from a record $147.27 a barrel last month is easing inflation pressures. Consumer-price increases are still above the European Central Bank's limit, prompting policy makers including Axel Weber to indicate they are in no hurry to cut interest rates even as expansion slows.
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Saturday, August 09, 2008
Czech Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
As anticipated (see Daily Global Commentary, July 30: " Surging Central European Currencies: Running Out of Steam? "), the Czech central bank switched to easing mode yesterday, lowering its key repo rate by 25bps to 3.50% - the first actual cut in over four years. Governor Tuma noted that the Czech economy is in a "declining phase" and that a "bigger dampening" is now expected. The bank also lowered its GDP growth forecasts to 4.1% this year (prev. 4.7%) and 3.6% in 2009 (prev. 4.0%). Tuma also warned that he could not exclude another rate cut this year. The vote by the six-member policy board reportedly was unanimous.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
German Manufacturing Hit by Crumbling Eurozone Economy / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Midst a steady drumbeat of weak-to-negative economic news out of the Euro-zone in the past few days, there was one report today that gives particular cause for concern - German manufacturing orders. Germany has been the 'zone's economic powerhouse in the past few quarters, continuing to see steady-to-strong GDP growth even as demand and output started to weaken, or even outright slide, in France, Italy, and Spain. However, falling demand from the neighbors is starting to take a toll. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Central European Currencies Running Out of Steam / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
The three major currencies of central Europe have appreciated strongly against the euro so far this year, boosted to varying degrees by rising interest rates, strong economic growth, and positive investor sentiment - the latter buoyed by the final confirmation that Slovakia will adopt the euro next January. However, there are some preliminary signs that the region's strong growth rates are about to slow. Interest rates may be at their peak in Poland and Hungary, and a rate cut may be in the cards in the Czech Republic. All of which suggests that the Polish zloty, Czech koruna, and Hungarian forint may also have peaked for now.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Euro-Zone Slowng Credit Growth and Money Supply / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Today's ECB data on credit and money supply showed that the pace of loan growth to the private sector is easing, coming in at 9.8% on the year in June, versus 10.5% in May.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Ireland: Economic Hangover as Retail Sales Contract / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Today's headline out of Ireland will add to fears that the decade-long economic boom is ending with a recession. The volume of retail sales fell 1.1% on the month and plunged 4.8% on the year in May, the fourth consecutive monthly fall and the sharpest annual drop since 1987.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 03, 2008
ECB Increases Interest Rates as Trichet Warns of 'Exploding' Inflation / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold rose to $94 4 .80 in New York yesterday and was up $ 2.0 0 and silver closed at $18. 33 , up 13 cents.Gold has remained firm near 10 week highs on the surging oil price which reached a new record high today < $145.72 - Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - AUG08>. The dollar is flat today after it's decline in value in recent days. Against the euro, the dollar looks set to fall through support at 1.60 in the coming days and 1.70 euro/dollar looks like a very real possibility by the end of September. Longer term the likelihood of a sharp long recession in the U.S. could well see the euro reach 1.80 or even 2.00 against the dollar (as sterling did to the surprise of many in recent years).
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Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Global Recession Gathers Pace as Euro zone Manufacturing Contracts / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Shedlock
The global recession is picking up steam. The US is in contraction, U.K. Manufacturing Is In Contraction , and now Euro zone manufacturing activity is in contraction .
The euro zone's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector, compiled by data and research group Markit, slid to 49.2 points in June, from 50.6 in May, up slightly from an initial estimate of 49.1.
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Thursday, June 26, 2008
The Norwegian Krone as the Next Reserve Currency? / Currencies / Euro-Zone
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Today, the Norges Bank, the Norwegian central bank, raised its policy interest rate 25 basis points to 5.75%. That puts the Norges Bank's policy rate 293 basis points over the May year-over-year CPI inflation rate on a harmonized basis (see Chart). Notice that the Norges Bank was raising its policy rate in the first half of 2007 as the inflation rate was falling. The Norges Bank is offering savers an "honest" return on their funds. Isn't this what you would look for in a reserve currency's central bank?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
European Politicians Living in Ivory Towers Confuse Stagflation with Stability / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Axel_Merk
Just because we have been favoring the euro over the U.S. dollar in recent years doesn't mean we believe everything is perfect in Europe. The rejection of Irish voters of the latest attempt by the European Union (E.U.) to streamline its decision processes highlights a fundamental weakness: the inability of European politicians to communicate with its citizens. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Irish Say NO to European Super State / Politics / Euro-Zone
By: Mike_Whitney
On Friday, Ireland delivered a knockout punch to European elites and corporatists and shattered their plan for an EU Superstate. The so-called Lisbon Treaty was nothing more than a repackaging of the European Constitution that was defeated by French and Dutch voters in 2005. The treaty was loaded with the typical "democratic" gobbledygook to conceal the vicious neoliberal policies at its heart. If it had passed, the treaty would have paved the way for greater privatization of public services, diminished workers rights, less state control over trade policies and civil liberties, and an aggressive plan to militarize Europe.Read full article... Read full article...
