Friday, July 15, 2022
Gold Inflation Disconnect / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold should be soaring with red-hot inflation raging, but instead it is breaking down. This history-defying disconnect has devastated sentiment, leaving this leading traditional inflation hedge despised. Traders need to realize gold’s bizarre decoupling from all precedent is an extreme anomaly that will prove short-lived. It has been driven by a parabolic US-dollar surge fueling unsustainable heavy gold-futures selling.
As a professional speculator and financial-newsletter writer for the past 23 years, I’m deeply immersed in the markets. I eat, breathe, and sleep trading, watching and analyzing market action all day every day. In such a long span of time, I’ve seen plenty of irrational episodes where prices temporarily disconnect from reality. But recent months’ serious gold weakness may take the cake as the most absurd I’ve witnessed!
For millennia, gold has proven the greatest investment in inflationary times of monetary debasement. Its supply growth from mining is very-slow, constrained naturally by the rarity of economic gold deposits and the decade-plus timelines necessary to bring them to production. So when governments irresponsibly expand their money supplies at excessive rates, gold prices surge to reflect those depreciating currencies.
Relatively-way-more money is suddenly available to compete for relatively-much-less gold, bidding up its price levels. And the higher gold powers, the more investors want to chase it accelerating its upside. This logical gold-inflation dynamic has fueled legendary gains during past inflation super-spikes. The previous couple before today’s monster hit in the 1970s, and gold’s performances reflected how it should react.
From June 1972 to December 1974, headline year-over-year US Consumer Price Index inflation soared from 2.7% to 12.3%. During that 30-month span, conservative monthly-average gold prices blasted up an amazing 196.6%! After that serious inflation wave passed, another one soon followed. From November 1976 to March 1980, the YoY CPI prints skyrocketed from 4.9% to 14.8%. Gold was a moonshot in that span.
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Friday, July 15, 2022
Peak Inflation is Not the Issue / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
The reality of record-high inflation combined with a hawkish monetary policy is slowing the economy sharply and has led to the current U.S. recession—two back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The economic contraction should soon cause inflation to roll over along with bond yields; but that isn’t necessarily indicative of a new bull market. It is much the same process that occurred leading up to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.The major difference is that the level of inflation today is much greater than it was 15 years ago--a white-hot 9.1% for June of 2022, which is actually close to 20% if calculated using the same method back in 1980. That level is much greater than the 4.1% in December of 2007. Inflation may be peaking, but it is peaking at over 4.5x greater than the Fed’s target. Meaning, the FOMC will find it very difficult to give up its inflation fight anytime soon. It would be a different story if the Effective Fed Funds Rate was trading close to the Fed’s neutral range, which Mr. Powell believes is close to 2.5%, not the 1.58% seen today. With CPI at 9.1% and its balance sheet at $8.9 trillion, it is untenable for the Fed to remain stimulative to inflation. Indeed, the FOMC wants the interbank lending rate at 3.5-4.0% by the end of 2022.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2022
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My expectations are for for average UK House prices (Halifax) to continue to trend higher over the next 3 years, punctuated by a brief pause during early 2023 in response to interest rate hikes, weakening economy and tax rises. However persistent high inflation, extreme over crowding and continuing strong population growth ensures that the bull market will remain in tact. Therefore my forecast conclusion is for average UK house prices (Halifax) to target a rise from £278,123 as of February 2022 over the next 3 years to £340,632 for February 2025 data (Halifax) targeting a price increase of 22.5% over 3 three years as as illustrated by my trend forecast graph below -
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Wednesday, July 13, 2022
How to Purchase USDT / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Tether, also known as USDT, is the world's leading stablecoin as far as market capitalization is concerned. Theoretically, stablecoins are a stable alternative for altcoins and bitcoin since their value is pegged to a fiat currency, e.g., the United States dollar. Therefore, those purchasing USDT and other stablecoins are more interested in the decentralization and anonymity they offer rather than price upsurges and falls.
The United Kingdom government is currently working on a strategy to recognize stablecoins as an official state payment method. However, this year, stablecoins have been hit by a wave of volatility; this made Tether lose a 1:1 tie with the US dollar in June.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2022
Stocks, Pot Stocks & Bonds: 5 global Market Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: EWI
Hi reader,
Back in 1992, our friends at Elliott Wave International began offering their institutional subscribers a thin monthly brochure packed with big-picture forecasts for key markets.
Today, 30 years later, Global Market Perspective is still one of EWI's most-read publications.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2022
How Has Russia’s Ukraine Invasion Impacted the Commodity Markets? / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Travis_Bard
Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine continues to take an incredible human toll, with the very latest updates from the Office of the United Nations revealing that some 4,509 civilians had been killed in the conflict to date.
However, this geopolitical conflict has also caused significant financial and market disruption, from compounding the rise in global energy prices to significantly disturbing the world’s agricultural space.
But how exactly has this industry been impacted to date, and what does the conflict mean for the global commodity markets as a whole?
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Tuesday, July 12, 2022
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 3rd and final part of my extensive analysis of the UK housing market that concludes in a detailed 3 year trend forecast for UK house prices ( Part 1, Part 2 )
UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024
Tuesday, July 12, 2022
Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin, and Bonds Asset Price Deflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
Before we talk about asset price deflation, let’s review what happened before 2022.
Most financial assets benefited enormously from the Fed’s hugely gratuitous efforts to support, sustain and reinflate prices after the 2020 collapse and the ensuing forced economic shutdown.
From the article Gold Market Manipulation And The Federal Reserve…
“Long-side investors in all assets, including precious metals, ‘benefited’ from the manipulative efforts of the Federal Reserve twelve years ago and again just recently.
The recent recovery in prices for stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and silver has been almost unbelievable. It is literally jaw-dropping…” June 28, 2020
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Tuesday, July 12, 2022
Ah, Snap! Here's What Snap Inc.'s Stock Price Action is Likely Signaling / Companies / Social Media
By: EWI
"Air-pocket declines ... are harbingers"
Snap Inc. is the company which developed Snapchat, the social media app which allows users to customize the content they share with others -- right in the app.
Recently, the firm introduced Snapchat+ -- available for $3.99 a month.
Snap could use some success -- it's been a tough go lately.
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Tuesday, July 12, 2022
How to Us WIndows 10 Memory Diagnostics Tool to Diagnose Why Your PC is Crashing Check list / Personal_Finance / Microsoft
By: HGR
Here is a useful tool built into Windows 10 to help diagnose why your Windows 10 System is unstable, prone to blue screening. Windows 10 Memory Diagnostics which at least will eliminate failing memory stocks from your why is my PC crashing check list.
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Tuesday, July 12, 2022
Learn to How to Ride a Bicycle, Bike in Minutes / Personal_Finance / Educating Children
By: Eliza_Walayat
Eliza shows how to eaily learn how to ride a bike mostly in MIllhouses Park Sheffield
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Monday, July 11, 2022
Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Before I get started with my stock market analysis here is my take on the political assassination of Boris Johnson, who was stabbed in the back Thursday by so called colleagues Julius Caesar style by a Tory party that effectively committed electoral suicide. Britain demonstrates the illusion of democracy where we vote one person and his party in who soon gets replaced with a waste of spacer that the electorate did not vote for! A loss of a PM for any reason should automatically trigger a general election.
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Monday, July 11, 2022
“Sleeper Stocks” are Defying the Bear Market / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler : You won’t hear about it in the mainstream media…
But my favorite group of “sleeper stocks” is pulling away from the broad market.
As of June 28, these sleeper stocks (green line) are up 13% over the previous seven weeks. The S&P 500 was down 2% over the same time frame:
Sunday, July 10, 2022
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
House prices will be higher a year from now, 2 years from now and definitely 3 years from now, the question mark is how high?
Momentum suggests a flat lining market from late 2022 with very light upwards price pressure during early 2023 that could see house price inflation briefly fall towards zero accompanied by maybe a couple of down months before the bull market resumes going into 2024 and 2025.
Net immigration of 300k and an expected Ukrainian influx of at least 200k is going to put the UK housing market under extra strain and upwards price pressure.
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Sunday, July 10, 2022
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The pandemic has resulted in many tens of millions more americans working from home. As someone who has been working form home for a good 15 years I can well understand why house prices have rocketed higher as prospective home buyers both seek out properties that are better suited to working from home, more suburban, quiet office spaces, plenty of storage, or view properties with scope to being upgraded into work from home environments.
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Sunday, July 10, 2022
Trial Begins in Gold & Silver Manipulation Case Against J.P. Morgan Official / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Fears of further Fed tightening continue to weigh on metals markets.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its most recent policy meeting. As CNBC reported, central bankers remain fixated on inflation.
CNBC Reporter: The minutes of the latest Fed meetings show that officials agreed that another rate hike of 50-75 basis points would likely be appropriate at its meeting later this month. Officials also acknowledge that there could be an even more restrictive stance that could be appropriate if inflation remains high. Now, the minutes show that Fed officials were worried about inflation becoming entrenched, that was debated several times in this document. Many participants viewed that as a significant risk.
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Sunday, July 10, 2022
What are the benefits of doing good deeds? / Personal_Finance / Social Issues
By: Mark_Adan
There are several benefits to doing good deeds, both short-term and long-term. Short-term benefits can include feeling good about yourself, having a positive impact on others, and making a difference in the world. Long-term benefits can include developing self-confidence, gaining moral character, and developing a sense of purpose in life.
Self-confidence is one of the most commonly cited benefits of doing good deeds. When you feel good about yourself, you are more likely to feel confident in other areas of your life, including your work and relationships. Building self-confidence can be difficult, but it is definitely worth the effort.
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Sunday, July 10, 2022
Does Selling Put Options During A Market Downturn Provide A Safety Net? / InvestorEducation / Options & Warrants
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In a significant market downturn, bearish sentiment, if not outright fear, can drive down the share price of good companies rather drastically. When the market is in a sustained selling mood, there can be a substantial disconnect between the long-term fundamentals and the technical price action we see on the chart.
The Temptation to Bottom Fish
What can we do when good companies are trading at what appear to be bargain prices? We could “stick our toe in the water” and buy shares. But what if we’re wrong about whether a bottom in the share price is in place? Or what if the stock takes a very long time to build a base and goes nowhere for an extended period?
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Sunday, July 10, 2022
What Needs to Happen for the Gold Stocks GDXJ to Hit New Lows? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Although the general stock market has risen, this trend may soon reverse. Since it often moves along with gold stocks, junior miners can face a fall too.
Let the S&P 500 Be a Clue
Mining stocks declined significantly this week, but they haven’t severely underperformed gold. There is a good reason for it – the general stock market moved higher recently.
What would have to happen for the mining stocks (in particular, junior mining stocks) to decline in a more profound manner and slide well below $30 (in the GDXJ)? For example, the trend in the stock market could reverse.
Guess what – that’s exactly what’s likely to happen based on what’s going on in the S&P 500 chart.
Saturday, July 09, 2022
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England just like it's US counterpart recognises the significance of the yield curve inversions not because it has magical powers but that it tends to act as a self fulfilling prophecy, i.e. if enough people act on such as trigger as they tend to do then YES it will negatively impact on economic activity as market participants respond accordingly.
However in this respect the Bank of England has done a good smoke and mirrors job of masking the importance of yield curve inversions in the UK, which just don't carry as much weight as they do in the US. The UK yield curve has already temporarily inverted in December, but as has been the case for some time it tends to be of a con flip significance. At best UK yield curve inversions signal economic stress that we are already well aware of.
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