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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

UK RPI Deflation -0.4%, CPI Inflation 2.9% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK RPI Inflation data of minus 0.4% for March represents real deflation in the official data. Whilst the Governments preferred inflation measure CPI recorded a smaller decline to 2.9% which still puts it well above the Bank of England's target rate of 2%. RPI deflation is not so surprising given the panic interest rate cuts from 5% at the beginning of October 2008 to just 0.5% by the last cut of March 2009, these cuts in interest rates coupled with quantitative easing aka "money printing" to drive down long-term interest rates and hence mortgage rates is resulting in real deflation for those with large mortgages of as much as minus 5%, therefore is providing for mini 'temporary' cash flow boom for those mortgage holders that have secure employment during the recession.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Looking for Signs of Economic Recovery From the Deepest Recession Since the Great Depression / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs the economic recovery at hand? No, we still are mired in a recession that is going to be of the longest duration in the post-WWII era (the previous record was 16 months) and is likely to involve the largest annual average contraction in real GDP for a single year (the record to beat is a decline of 1.9%, which occurred in 1982). But there is a good chance that the worst for the U.S. economy in terms of quarterly contractions in real GDP is behind us, occurring in the fourth quarter of 2008. We currently are forecasting an annualized rate of contraction in real GDP of 3.8% in the first quarter of this year vs. the annualized rate of contraction of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2008. So, economic activity still is descending, but our forecast has the rate of descent moderating. We do not expect any growth in real GDP until the fourth quarter of this year.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Surging Money Supply, They Call This Deflation? / Economics / Deflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSo money-supply growth of 18% plus consumer prices inflation half-as-great again as the official target now equals deflation. Right...?

OH HORRORS! "Deflation hits UK economy for first time since 1960," screams The Telegraph. "UK falls into deflation for first time in 50 years," wails The Times.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Clown Economist Mankiw Defends Policy of Theft of Private Property / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn case you are new to this story, Gregory Mankiw, professor of economics at Harvard, proposed negative interest rates in It May Be Time for the Fed to Go Negative.

At one of my recent Harvard seminars, a graduate student proposed a clever scheme to [make holding money less attractive].

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Positve Signs for China Stock Market Investors, FXI / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTony Sagami writes: Have you become more optimistic about the stock market? If you listen to the experts on CNBC, you might think that a great bull market is right around the corner.

The most commonly cited reason to be optimistic: Some variation of “business isn’t sucking as bad as it used to.”

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Oil, Cars and Consumerism and The Global Economic Crisis: Discussion On The Great Depression II / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDr. Raju M. Mathew writes: Global Economic Crisis - The world is under a great economic crisis. For the conventional economists it is only a Recession and not a Depression at all, for their partial analytical techniques, over-simplified models with unrealistic assumptions and over emphasis on data. It may take at least five years for them to realize that it would be a Great Depression and by that time it may be over. When Cybernetics is employed for the study of the working of the global economy as a whole with multi-sector approaches on the basis of the deeper understanding of Political Economy, we are forced to admit that this is not a simple Recession, but a Great Depression that requires not only economic stimulus but Ethical or Spiritual and Political Stimulus also to recover.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Deflation Alarm Bells Ringing Across Europe / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

The New York Times is reporting Spain’s Falling Prices Fuel Deflation Fears in Europe.

Faced with plunging orders, merchants across this recession-wracked country are starting to do something that many of them have never done: cut retail prices.

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Economics

Monday, April 20, 2009

Financial Markets and Economy Outlook 2009, Inflation / Deflation / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. And this week's letter does just that. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst and for the conversation and our experience to be rising inflation and not a serious problem with deflation.

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Economics

Sunday, April 19, 2009

US Economy- Housing Market Bottoming, Credit Crisis Easing? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAsha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Retail sales - story of weak consumer spending
“Retail sales fell 1.1% in March following a 0.3% increase in February (previously estimated as a 0.1% decline). Retail sales of January were revised up slightly to a 1.9% gain from a 1.8% increase. In March, the 1.6% drop in gasoline sales accounted for some of the decline. In addition, auto sales were reported as a 0.9% drop despite the increase in unit sales to 9.8 million units from 9.2 million in February. Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales fell 0.8% in March after a 0.7% jump in February.

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Economics

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Deflationary Recession Over? U.S. Economy Booming Again? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: It’s hard to find anyone who’s still bearish on the economy or the market these days. Listen to the average pundit on CNBC and this is what you’ll hear:

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Economics

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Does Inflation Targeting Make Any Sense? / Economics / Inflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCalculated Risk has framed an interesting Inflation Debate Between Volcker vs. Kohn without weighing in on the matter. I will gladly weigh in, but first let's review the articles.

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Economics

Friday, April 17, 2009

Not All Economists Agree on Obama U.S. Economy Recovery Policies / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a speech this week summarizing his administration's economic policies, President Obama grossly overstated the support these policies enjoy by claiming, "economists on the left and right agree that the last thing the government should do during a recession is cut back on spending." There are a great many economists who were surprised to learn that, apparently, they now agree with the President.

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Economics

Friday, April 17, 2009

European Economic Meltdown Triggers Infighting at European Central Bank / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe European economy is in a shambles and the European Central Bank is clearly worried. Although there is a bit of infighting among the central bank governing board, Trichet Says ECB Must Do Everything to Restore Confidence.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank would do everything possible to restore confidence and prosperity.

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Economics

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Robert Shiller’s Fatal Prescriptions Poisoning the U.S. Economy / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Rozeff writes: Economist Robert Shiller now prescribes a strong dose of medicine – actually poison – for the U.S. economy (see here). Shiller’s diagnosis and doctoring are the same as those of the Bush-Obama-Bernanke regimes. He only wants greater and more persistent doses of the poisons.

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Economics

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Economic Deflation Goes Global / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDeflation properly defined is a net decrease in the money supply and credit, with credit being marked to market. Deflation by that measure went global long ago.

This post however, is in reference to sustained price drops widely (and incorrectly) referred to as deflation.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Russian Official Unemployment Rate Hits 8.5% / Economics / Russia

By: Pravda

The number of officially registered jobless in Russia has reached 2.2 million, President Dmitry Medvedev said at a meeting with experts at the Institute of Modern Development.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Krugman in Need of Remedial Economics Education / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePaul Krugman is back in his usual form of preaching sheer idiocy with his piece Time for bottles in coal mines.

Krugman is upset that Obama says stimulus projects under budget.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Leading U.S. Economic Indicators Point to Improvement / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSince the start of the new millennium and new century, many of the old truisms that applied to economic forecasting are no longer relevant. So many things have changed in the last nine years that a new set of economic “rules” is in order.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Fed Monetization of Debt as U.S. Dollar Flows to Central Banks Collapses / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGrand and glorious global housing bubble came to an end not because it had caused so much money to be borrowed. It came to an end because no more money could be borrowed. Debt bubbles come to traumatic conclusions not because so much credit had been created. Debt bubbles implode when no more credit is available. Lack of credit, the fuel for a mania, is what comes to be the problem.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

World Bank Calls China an Economic Bright Spot / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Dow has been on a mini-roll. Therefore, most investors are thrilled to see battered stock portfolios recover even a smidgen of their massive losses. The problem is that these investors aren’t paying attention to what’s happening elsewhere around the globe. And they may be missing out on the opportunity of the decade!

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