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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Global Debt Deleveraging of Housing Market Bubbles, Why Reflation Will Fail / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInquiring minds are reading an interesting document by the San Francisco Fed called Global Household Leverage, House Prices, and Consumption.

"[O]ver-investment and over-speculation are often important; but they would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money." —Irving Fisher (1933)
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Economics

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

The Recession Is Over, the Economic Depression Just Beginning / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Stephen_Lendman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn late 2009, former Merrill Lynch economist, now with the Canadian firm, Gluskin Sheff, said the following:

"The credit collapse and the accompanying deflation and overcapacity are going to drive the economy and financial markets in 2010. We have said this repeatedly that this recession is really a depression because the (post-WW II) recessions were merely small backward steps in an inventory cycle but in the context of expanding credit. Whereas now, we are in a prolonged period of credit contraction, especially as it relates to households and small businesses."

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Economics

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Free Banking versus Large-scale Credit Expansion / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleObservations on the Discussions Concerning Free Banking - The Banking School taught that an overissuance of banknotes is impossible if the bank limits its business to the granting of short-term loans. When the loan is paid back at maturity, the banknotes return to the bank and thus disappear from the market. However, this happens only if the bank restricts the amount of credits granted. (But even then it would not undo the effects of its previous credit expansion. It would merely add to it the effects of a later credit contraction.)

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Economics

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Eurozone Faces Meltdown Under Sovereign Debt Crisis 2010 / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs fears of a dollar meltdown have loomed ever larger in recent years, major investors, including central banks, have moved significant portions of their cash reserves into the euro, the currency of the European Union (EU). And while it is true that the euro offers some shelter from the American economic catastrophe, the currency does come with baggage that investors should not ignore.

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Economics

Monday, January 11, 2010

Economic Steroids Are Toxic Too / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAS THE NEW YEAR OPENS, THE stock market is behaving as if the past 20 years were about to repeat themselves: Another recession will turn into a robust expansion. Stock prices already are discounting an earnings recovery to something only slightly below the level before the financial crisis. Risk-taking is in vogue again.

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Economics

Monday, January 11, 2010

Does the Government Own the Whole Economy? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a recent New York Times op-ed, economist Robert Shiller (coproducer of the famous housing-price index) recommended that the US government begin to sell claims on fractions of Gross Domestic Product. Besides the practical problems with his proposal, it rests on the premise that the US government owns the entire economy. It will be instructive to parse Shiller's column to see just how badly his collectivist thinking misleads him.

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Economics

Monday, January 11, 2010

The Deflationists Myth of Japan / Economics / Deflation

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn my previous report in this series, I contrasted the monetary views of the Austrian School of economics with the standard views of Keynesian and Chicago School economists. Despite their deep-seated differences, all of them oppose the views of the handful of forecasters who predict inevitable price deflation. I wrote:

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Economics

Monday, January 11, 2010

Baby Boomer Demographics, Household Formation and the Hoax Economy / Economics / Demographics

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFollowing is a collection of Emails from a few key friends regarding household formation, baby boomer and millennials demographics, the labor participation rate, trends in unemployment, and debt deflation.

One of the emails is from Steve Keen, a noted economist.

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Economics

Monday, January 11, 2010

U.S. Unemployment Numbers Illustrate Retarded Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen the official unemployment figure dropped by 0.2 per cent to 10 per cent the so-called media were quick to claim it as evidence that the economy was now moving in the right direction. But how could this be if firms were not hiring? To any reasonable observer of the economic scene it was obvious that the number of discouraged workers must be rising. The jury is now in, making this conclusion official: The Labor Department has reported that 929,000 "discouraged workers" ceased looking for work.

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Economics

Sunday, January 10, 2010

On the Precipice of a Global Economic Avalanche That No Bailout Can Stop / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mac_Slavo

Bob Chapman says we’re Still In A Credit Crisis, New Liquidity Threatens Inflation. On top of that, we could very well be on the precipace of a paradigm shift in America:

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Economics

Sunday, January 10, 2010

China Economy and Stock Market Crash Warning From Hedge Fund Manager / Economics / China Economy

By: Trader_Mark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis is not a new position for legendary short selling oriented hedge fund manager (who smoked out Enron) Jim Chanos, but he continues to pound the table on the dangers of China. [Dec 16, 2009: CNBC Video - Hedge Fund Maven Jim Chanos on Autos, Banking, and China]  It's a tough environment to be short anything globally; I assume he is taking some pain even in his anti automotive parlays.

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Economics

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Surge in U.S. Personal Bankruptcies, Foreclosures and Job Losses / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe number of Americans filing for personal bankruptcy rose by nearly a third in 2009, a surge largely driven by foreclosures and job losses.

And more people are filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which liquidates assets to pay off some debts and absolves the filers of others. That is significant because a 2005 overhaul of federal bankruptcy laws aimed to encourage Chapter 13 filings, which force consumers to sign onto debt-repayment plans in exchange for keeping certain assets.

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Economics

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Consumer Credit Drops Record $17.5 Billion; Steepest Declines Since WWII / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile monetarist clowns focus on so-called excess reserves and the huge surge in inflation that is supposed to bring (See Fictional Reserve Lending And The Myth Of Excess Reserves) I am watching the biggest plunge in consumer credit since WWII.

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Economics

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Why Deflation is Not Ahead / Economics / Deflation

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a debate going on within pro-gold circles: inflation or deflation. The deflationists predict that price deflation is inevitable and imminent. The inflationists insist that mass inflation is inevitable, but maybe not imminent.

Deflationists rarely speak of mass deflation, let alone hyperdeflation. Just deflation. They do not say by what percent prices will fall each year or for how many years.

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Economics

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Is The US At An Extreme Risk Of A Double Dip Recession? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Submissions

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSafari Investment Research write: One of the major concerns at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 was how much the average U.S. consumer has to de-lever in order to reach a sustainable debt level that could be supported in a declining asset price environment. As we all know, the environment changed quickly in the 2nd quarter of 2009 when all asset prices began to rise in value and the national savings rate continued to climb (See Exhibit 1).

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Economics

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Economic Aspects of the Pension Problem: Part II / Economics / Pensions & Retirement

By: Professor_Emeritus

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs It Appears Sixty Years Later

In Two Parts. Part Two: Productivity Revisited - In Part One I discussed the clear and present danger to pension rights: deflation as manifested by the interest rates structure that has been falling for almost thirty years, while most observers still think that the real danger is inflation. In this concluding part I carry out a deeper analysis of the pension problem, looking at the marginal productivity of labor and capital.

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Economics

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Economy Forecast 2010 the Uncertain Statistical Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article2010: A Year of Uncertainty
"Rocking Even Me"
Prisoners of Our Preconceptions
The Statistical Recovery
The Great Experiment
Whither the Fed?

"Lying here, during all this time after my own small fall, it has become my conviction that things mean pretty much what we want them to mean. We'll pluck significance from the least consequential happenstance if it suits us and happily ignore the most flagrantly obvious symmetry between separate aspects of our lives if it threatens some cherished prejudice or cosily comforting belief; we are blindest to precisely whatever might be most illuminating." - from Transition, by Iain M. Banks

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Economics

Friday, January 08, 2010

The History of Money, Credit, Debt and Banking, Financial Lessons of the Ages / Economics / Debt & Loans

By: Doug_Wakefield

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRather than rigorous study, which would help us connect the explosion of debt that has occurred in the last century (particularly since the early 1970s) with the financial markets, the majority of the financial industry and the investors who depend on their experience, have instead relied on simple slogans like, “the market always goes up over the long term” or “invest according to your risk tolerance.” And as long as the public believes that up markets mean the elixir of capitalism is working and we are getting better and that down markets are only temporary, these trite sayings will suffice. Human nature being what it is, I suppose we would rather seek “advice” that allows us see things the way we want them to be, rather than address how unsustainable debt and corporate and political corruption could impact our collective future.

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Economics

Friday, January 08, 2010

December U.S. Job Losses Implications for Economic Recovery / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Sy_Harding

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Labor Department’s report that 85,000 jobs were lost in December was certainly a disappointment, much worse than the consensus forecast that job losses had bottomed in November and perhaps as many as 10,000 new jobs may have been created in December.

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Economics

Friday, January 08, 2010

Massive 43% Jump in U.S. Emergency Unemployment Benefits, Government Manipulating Data? / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Mike_Shedlock

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI was intrigued by a post by Zero Hedge asking Is The Government Misrepresenting Unemployment By 32%?

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