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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Why the United States Will Go Into Recession / Economics / Recession

By: Gerard_Jackson

If my email is anything to go by, there are a lot of worried and confused people out there. Basically most want to know why if the US economy is going to slide into recession. Of course it will. The question is when. I have to exercise caution here because I haven't had the time during the last couple of weeks to take a much closer look at the economic trends. Since Bush won the 2000 election the media has done nothing but report economic doom. For them, predicting a recession is bit like predicting rain a few weeks hence. They one will eventually develop, they just hope Bush is still president when this happens.

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Economics

Monday, March 03, 2008

Kings of Denial: What Bush and Bernanke are NOT telling you about the Economy ... / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Never underestimate the capacity of politicians and bureaucrats to trap themselves into a pattern of denial.

That's what Fed Chairman Greenspan did in the early 2000s, even while he was helping to create the greatest housing bubble of all time.

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Economics

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Stagflation and the Fed- Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! / Economics / Stagflation

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow Do You Spell Stagflation?
  • Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation?
  • The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again
  • Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead!
  • Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark Side

This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame last night. He was suggesting the recession would be short and steep, and I of course think it is going to be shallow and with a long, protracted, and slow Muddle Through recovery. And it all hinges on how the Fed thinks about inflation.

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Economics

Friday, February 29, 2008

Tax Rebate 2008 - United States Congress Resorts to Trickle-Up Irrationality / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Roman poet Juvenal used the term ‘bread and circuses' to characterize palliative measures taken by the imperial Roman government to lure the populace into a state of blissful ignorance. This blissful ignorance comes at the expense of the solution of long-term societal problems, and arguably was a significant component of the end of the Empire.

Charles Fourier described his economic pinnacle a bit differently, opining that the oceans would turn to lemonade and roasted chickens would fly into our mouths. He used this amazing statement to describe a utopian socialism where the government was the ultimate provider.

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Economics

Thursday, February 28, 2008

What if Conventional Wisdom On Economic Growth and Consumer Spending Is Wrong? / Economics / US Economy

By: Tim_Iacono

There it was, right in the middle of the front page of yesterday's Wall Street Journal about four paragraphs down in the lead story titled " Decline in Home Prices Accelerates " - more evidence that the economy as we know it could be fundamentally flawed, yet you'd never get a hint of that even from reading one of the the world's finest business publication.

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Economics

Thursday, February 28, 2008

US Money Supply Growth? Look to China / Economics / Money Supply

By: Chris_Galakoutis

Like the earmark hidden so deep inside a new appropriations bill committee report that it takes a magnifying glass to find, so too the lengths we apparently need to go in figuring out the degree of money supply growth in the US.

But is it really such a mystery?

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Economics

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Bernanke's Mission Impossible- To Boost the Economy To Win the Election / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBen Bernanke's Mission Impossible is to deliver a favorable economic climate conducive towards a Republican election victory in November 2008,

The mission requires the US Fed to -

  • abandon the defense of the dollar,
  • to abandon the fight against inflation,
  • to prop up the ailing banking system by as much money as is required (money supply),
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Economics

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

How to Grow Your Investments in an Inflationary Environment / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTony Sagami writes: I got my first taste of inflation in 1973, shortly after I got my driver's license.

Gasoline was 25 cents a gallon when I first started driving, and I was busy enjoying the freedom and independence that an automobile gives a teenage boy.

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Economics

Monday, February 25, 2008

America Saves Week Feb 24th to March 2nd - Build Wealth Not Debt! / Economics / US Debt

By: Wall_Street_Weather

While paging through the local paper yesterday, I spotted a bank ad touting a 48 month Certificate of Deposit for 3.5% APY. The barely legible print at the bottom of the ad said that the CD requires a $10,000 minimum of new money to the bank. Wow, I bet people will be standing in line for the bank to open this morning.

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Economics

Monday, February 25, 2008

US Economic Boom and Busts / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

The US Economy: Been there before - There are times when in order to find out where we are we need to discover how we got there. And this is certainly the case with economies, and the US economy is no exception. This is why economic lessons are vitally important and why they need to be constantly aired lest the public be led astray by demagogues and economic illiterates. (Think Obama and Hillary Clinton). One of the most important lessons that was largely disregarded in the 1990s is that booms are always followed by busts. (The dishonest US mainstream media's response to this fact is to blame recessions on Republicans and always credit Democrats with the good times).

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Economics

Sunday, February 24, 2008

US Recession and Mega Profit Opportunities / Economics / Recession

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Big Picture - Martin Weiss writes: With so much happening so quickly, I know it's sometimes hard to set aside a quiet time to think.

But this weekend I want the two of us to focus on the big picture ... find some clarity in these confusing times ... and chat about where we're headed from here.

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Economics

Saturday, February 23, 2008

US Fed's Up Beat Forecasts on Pessimistic Economic Growth Outlook / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

  • Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Muddle Through Fed
  • Risks to the Downside
  • Consumers Gone Wild
  • Leaving the Ballpark After All these Years

This week the Fed offered us their forecasts for 2008-10 for the economy, inflation and employment. We will look at some of the details which I think will be of interest. Then we glance at some data on the savings rate which suggests consumer spending may be in for more of a challenge than many think. There is a lot of ground to cover.

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Economics

Saturday, February 23, 2008

US Heading for 1970's Style Stagflation? / Economics / Stagflation

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn Thursday, February 21, articles about the possibility of stagflation occurred in both The New York Times ( That '70s Look: Stagflation ) and The Wall Street Journal ( Fears of Stagflation Return As Price Increases Gain Pace ). Are we about to be subjected to a rerun of "That '70s Show"?

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Economics

Friday, February 22, 2008

Inflation: America 's Greatest Export / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUnfortunately one of the few things still made in America is inflation. In fact, it now ranks as our greatest export. 

A significant by-product of the current global economic system, wherein Americans spend money they do not earn to buy foreign products that they do not make, is that trillions of dollars are now parked in foreign banks just looking for somewhere to go.

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Economics

Friday, February 22, 2008

Inflation- The Elephant in the Room / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"The elephant in the room" ... I love that expression. After all, my two little girls enjoy watching the elephants at Lion Country Safari, and they'd love to see 'em show up in the living room.

But right now, the real five-ton elephant in the room is inflation. And no one at the Federal Reserve really seems to want to confront it!

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Economics

Thursday, February 21, 2008

US Imports Inflation From China - Use Agri-Foods to Protect Your Wealth! / Economics / Inflation

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWaving a magic wand and making speeches does not prevent reality from creeping into statistics. Per the FRB-Cleveland, the U.S. inflation trend is as shown in the following table.

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Economics

Monday, February 18, 2008

Saving as the Source of Most Spending and the Implications for the 'Economic Stimulus Package' / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleStanding Keynesian GDP on its head: Saving Not Consumption as the Main Source of Spending - Professor George Reisman writes: According to the prevailing Keynesian dogma, consumption is the main form of spending in the economic system, while saving is mere non-spending and thus a 'leakage' from the spending stream. This dogma underlies much of government economic policy in the United States, including the so-called economic stimulus package that has just been enacted. In this article, I prove, to the contrary, that consumption is not the main form of spending in the economic system and that the source of most spending is, in fact, saving. I prove my claims by starting with the very formulations of the expenditure aggregates presented by the Keynesian doctrine itself.

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Economics

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Bernanke's State of the US Economy Speech: "You are all Dead Ducks!" / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEven veteran Fed-watchers were caught off-guard by Chairman Bernanke's performance before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Bernanke was expected to make routine comments on the state of the economy but, instead, delivered a 45 minute sermon detailing the afflictions of the foundering financial system. The Senate chamber was stone-silent throughout. The gravity of the situation is finally beginning to sink in.

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Economics

Friday, February 15, 2008

US Recession Debate Turns Toward Inflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Michael_Pento

The debate over the "R" word has been the focus on Wall St. for months on end. This obsession over whether the degree of the economic slowdown will in fact reach the technical definition of recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP) is unproductive for the average investor. What investors need to know is that while economic growth is clearly weak, inflation is rising and that the current value of the stock market has not priced this in. Meanwhile, the Fed's response to this crisis is causing great harm to investors and could lead to hyperinflation in the long term.

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Economics

Friday, February 15, 2008

Economic Stimulus Packages Overdosing Could Ignite Hyperinflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Peter_Schiff

In perhaps one of biggest ironies to ever to come out of Washington, this week Congress simultaneously pilloried major league baseball players for using artificial stimulants to pump up their performance while passing legislation to do just that to the national economy. Am I the only one laughing?

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