Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, August 09, 2010
U.S. Economy Between a Rock and a Hard Place Facing Dire Options / Economics / US Economy
By: Lorimer_Wilson
“The U.S. is in an untenable position - between a rock and a hard place - in an inescapable debt trap - where the options are, at best, dire – either hyperinflation or a deflationary depression! It would seem that all we can do is ride out the storm in a boat laden with gold” said Jeff Nielson (BullionBullsCanada.com) in a recent speech* going on to say:
Monday, August 09, 2010
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast 2010 to 2015 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis is a continuation of the UK Debt Forecast article (UK ConLib Government to Use INFLATION Stealth Tax to Erode Value of Public Debt ) on the impact of the new coalition government having effectively hit the reset button on the UK economy to now primarily target a reduction in the £156 billion annual budget deficit which aims to suck £113 billion a year out of the economy by 2015-16 by means of swinging public sector spending cuts and tax rises. The government has now clearly reversed the Labour governments policy of continuous fiscal expansion and set the country on a course for severe fiscal contraction for at least the next 3 years.
Monday, August 09, 2010
Hyperinflation Warning / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Howard_Katz
One hears much discussion of hyperinflation on the gold web sites. It is a worst case scenario and used to alarm and excite. It is used to designate a period when prices are rising very rapidly, the favorite example being Germany of 1914-23, and during this time prices rose by very close to one trillion times. That is, a piece of bread which started off costing 1 mark ended costing one trillion marks. So it is not merely in today’s world that we are using numbers above 1 trillion. But it is an instructive period of history, and we must always keep in mind that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Monday, August 09, 2010
Straddling 3D Super Bus for a Greener China / Economics / China Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
With its rapidly growing rural-to-urban population, China is in the midst of a massive transportation infrastructure upgrade in order to maintain the country's economic growth and development.
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Sunday, August 08, 2010
Do You Believe We're In Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Justice_Litle
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has a message for the American public: "Welcome to the Recovery." As a joke it might be funny – but it isn't...
I read something this week that made me laugh out loud – though it wasn't supposed to be funny. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, aka Turbo Timmy, has an opinion piece in The New York Times titled "Welcome to the Recovery."
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Sunday, August 08, 2010
Is the U.S. Economy Toast? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Brian_Bloom
Marc Faber thinks the US economy is toast. Richard Russell’s interpretation of the technical behaviour of the US market is that we might just be entering a new Primary Bull phase. (Although he remains wary because of the generous P/E ratios that still prevail).
Saturday, August 07, 2010
Pensions Liabilities Problem and China Instability / Economics / Pensions & Retirement
By: John_Mauldin
August Surprise from Obama?
The Problem with Pensions
Whither China?
Sadly, I find myself with more than enough time to compose yet another Thoughts from the Frontline in an airport, as a flight booking error has me at JFK for six hours instead of fishing in Maine. Details for those interested or amused at the end. But it does allow me to offer you a peek into a very sobering report on how badly underfunded public pension are. The situation is worse than you think. Then we will close with a eye-opening report on China from the gracious Simon Hunt, who is allowing me to reprint his latest missive in toto. You really want to read this one. And we start with this rumor from Reuters, just in. Read this and weep. It comes from James Pethokoukis.
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Saturday, August 07, 2010
IMF Predicts 4.25% Growth for Russian Economy in 2010 / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
In 2010, the Russian economy will grow by 4.25%, after falling 7.9% last year. This forecast was made yesterday by the International Monetary Fund.
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Saturday, August 07, 2010
U.S. July Employment Situation, Lackluster Private Sector Job Growth Once Again / Economics / Employment
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.5% in July, no change from June's reading. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low for the expansion that ended in December 2007 is 4.4% in March 2007.
Payroll Employment: -131,000 in July vs. -221,000 in June, net loss of 95,000 jobs after revisions of payroll estimates for May and June. Private sector payrolls rose 71,000 after a downwardly revised gain of 31,000 in June.
Saturday, August 07, 2010
Inflation is Yesterday’s War / Economics / Deflation
By: Andrew_Butter
Generals are trained to fight yesterday’s wars. They sent cavalry to the trenches in the First World War, they built the Maginot Line for the Second World War, and more recently they used “pinpoint” strategic bombing to fight home-grown insurgents in Afghanistan and to blow up civilians and civilian infrastructure, to no discernable effect outside of increasing the number and the resolve of the insurgents.
Friday, August 06, 2010
Debt and Deficits Are Too High for Many Countries / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Casey_Research
David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: A couple weeks ago, the family and I watched Dirty Jobs, an altogether entertaining show from the Discovery Channel. In the episode we watched the host, Mike Rowe, serve as a mechanic in the military. There were a couple of things that caught my eye.
Friday, August 06, 2010
The Austrian History of U.S. Money and Banking / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jonathan Finegold Catalán writes: Traditionally, the greatest and most complete history of American money is held to be Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz's A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960. As a reservoir of statistics, Friedman and Schwartz's magnum opus is unrivaled. In terms of influence, there is no other book on the subject held in higher regard. Friedman and Schwartz challenge the conventional wisdom on American economic history, on the topics of the so-called Long Depression — a period which saw steadily falling prices, but unrivaled industrial growth — and the "dangers" of secular price deflation,[1] and the Great Depression.[2] But their empirical and positivist approach to economic analysis often mars their accuracy.[3]
Friday, August 06, 2010
The Inflation and Deflation Debate Deconstructed / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Jesse
'What most people call reason is really rationalization. Given a new set of data, most people will search through it only for those examples that support their existing beliefs. Their beliefs are really opinions, a tenuous collection of myths, anecdotes, slogans, and prejudices based largely on justifying personal fear and greed. This is what makes modern propaganda so powerful; people do not bother to think critically and objectively and act for the greatest good. And in their ignorance they can find the will to do increasingly monstrous things, and rationalize them.' Jesse
Friday, August 06, 2010
Disappointing Jobs Report as U.S. Economy Fails to Respond to Massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Today’s disappointing payroll report reveals that the U.S. economy has failed to respond to the massive fiscal and monetary stimuli that have flooded the nation over the past two years. Not only is the news bad for job seekers and political incumbents, but it’s also a strong signal for traders to flee the U.S. dollar. The malaise in the U.S., where stimulus is still the word of the day, stands in contrast to active recoveries in Europe and Asia, where governments are actively removing stimulus. As a result, we are now headed for the eighth consecutive weekly decline in the Dollar Index.
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Friday, August 06, 2010
U.S. Dismal Jobs Picture, the Fed’s Misguided Money Printing Medicine / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Larson
Can we just stop sugarcoating the issue? Dispense with the happy talk? Instead, let’s cut to the chase here: This job market sucks. Plain and simple.
By this stage in a true economic recovery, the country would be creating hundreds of thousands of jobs — month in and month out. But we aren’t. Not by a long shot!
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Friday, August 06, 2010
Keynesians, Fiat Currency, Until Debt Does Them Part / Economics / US Debt
By: Brady_Willett
Ben Bernanke’s machinations since the financial crisis began are widely celebrated as having saved the financial markets from complete ruin. Question is, was preventing the ruin of an over-leveraged, non-transparent, and bubble-driven financial system really the best path? For that matter, did the actions of Bernanke and company simply delay the day of reckoning and/or ensure that this day will be even more severe? Efforts to divine an enigmatic yesteryear notwithstanding, the reality is that as policy makers veer down one path we are precluded from knowing what the terrain would have been like down the other, with all of the ‘could have’ and ‘would have’ impediments limiting what can be said with conviction…
Friday, August 06, 2010
Will Quantitative Easing Spur Inflation? Job Creation? Credit Expansion? Do Anything? / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
St. Louis Fed James Bullard's proposal to start "quantitative easing" is creating a stir. Chris Ciovacco at Ciovacco Capital Management (and many others) propose the Fed can and will use quantitative easing to induce inflation. I disagree.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Economy Heading for a Systemic Collapse into Hyperinflationary Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: The_Energy_Report
When Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke admits to seeing an "unusually uncertain" economy ahead, it's pretty terrifying to imagine what he's really thinking. What John Williams envisions—and he's by no means looking to the far horizon—is a systemic collapse, a hyperinflationary great depression and the cessation of normal commerce. Despite that bleak outlook, however, when the economist and editor of ShadowStats.com sat down for this exclusive Energy Report interview, he also had some good news.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Government Employees, The Last Great Consumer Base / Economics / Government Spending
By: Richard_Daughty
Things in the economy are getting more and more stressful, and the company's revenues are down, precipitating the rumor around here that there are going to be more cuts in staff, and the odds are pretty good that I will be one of those unceremoniously fired since, ever since they fired Carl, I am now the company's worst employee.
Thursday, August 05, 2010
Consumer Spending – Another Drag on the U.S. Economy! / Economics / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Most of the time in American history it’s been a good thing that Americans love to spend, a good thing that consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy.Read full article... Read full article...