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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

US Economy Heading for a Recession? / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere have been oodles of commentary about the effects of the subprime real estate fiasco and how this will impact on the US economy. The first thing to bear in mind is that this financial disaster should be laid at the feet of the Fed. Without its loose monetary policies the credit to fund subprime mortgages on a massive scale would not have been available. Pumping masses of credit into the banking system is like pouring water into a bucket that is full. It's gotta overflow. And this is precisely what America got: an overflow of credit that went into funding a lot of dodgy loans — and not all of them are mortgages.

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Economics

Monday, September 10, 2007

Inflation Surge Expected As Food Costs Continue to Soar / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

"...The average weekly shopping bill is set to rise by 30% between now and Christmas in the United Kingdom ..."

ADAM LEYLAND, editor of The Grocer – the food & drink industry's favorite weekly reading here in the United Kingdom – says the cost of the average Briton's weekly shopping bill could rise 30% by December.

Thirty per cent? By Christmas?

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Economics

Monday, September 10, 2007

Contrary to Opinion, US is Not In a Recession Yet / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_J_Nolte

First it was if, then it became when and now it is how much. The very weak jobs report on Friday moved the Fed to front and center in the debate on economic growth and how aggressive should the Fed be in cutting interest rates to save a faltering economy. While a negative reading on “job creation” does not necessarily mean we are entering a recession, the likelihood of one has increased. However, other economic reports last week were not as dire, as the consumer seemed content to spend, judging by the retail sales figures provided by the various retail companies.

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Economics

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Consumer Confidence is the Greatest Bubble of All! / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

If you're like me, you have sat back over the past month or two and wondered what took so long. This is not to say that I am a gloomist by any means. There are a very small percentage of us that look at the economy and markets from a very different perspective. A perspective grounded in common sense. I can distill the difference down to a simple comparison: Most of the world believes there is a free lunch. We do not.

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Economics

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Your Wealth Is Being Confiscated Through Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Larry Edelson writes: I'd like to start this issue by quoting three great authors. Although they were from very different walks of life, they shared an understanding of exactly what the global economy is going through today, especially the events here in the U.S. …

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Economics

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Manufacturing is the key factor to the US Economy Avoiding Recession, Not the Sub-prime Mortgage Market Meltdown / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

It would be an understatement to call the current thinking of the economic commentariat confused. For this lot consumer spending drives the economy. Therefore it follows that the subprime mortgage crisis will hit consumer spending and then spread to manufacturing resulting in a full-blown recession. (This is not good news — unless your name is Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid). Fortunately the subprime fiasco is not a threat to the US economy. It is nothing more than a symptom of the Fed’s loose monetary policy. Without credit expansion these loans would never have been made.

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Economics

Monday, September 03, 2007

How Payroll Taxes Kill Jobs / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Actually they don’t — so long as the market is allowed to factor them into lower net pay. First and foremost, it should never be forgotten that payroll taxes are part of the worker’s gross wage. Raising payroll taxes is economically the same as legislating for higher wage rates. Nevertheless, I did have one so-called economist make the ludicrous argument that because the government spends the payroll receipts no unemployment can emerge because aggregate spending has been increased. This is the kind of economic idiocy that drives me up the wall.

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Economics

Friday, August 31, 2007

US Monetary Data is Not Painting a Pretty Picture / Economics / Money Supply

By: David_Urban

Well, MZM and M2 have begun to take on a parabolic looks as the compounded annual rate of change increased to 9.7 and 6.4%, respectively, from a year ago. MZM growth is giving me the chills just looking at the chart. This does not look good from an anti-inflation perspective. You can say that the helicopter drops have started. Take it all in now because when the party ends you will not want to be around for the cleanup.

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Economics

Thursday, August 30, 2007

The War on Working Americans - Part II / Economics / US Economy

By: Stephen_Lendman

This article was written to assess the state of working America in the run-up to Labor Day, 2007. Organized labor today is severely weakened following decades of government and business duplicity to crush it. Part I reviewed the labor movement's rise in the 19th century and subsequent decline post-WW II and especially in the last three decades. Hope arose for some change in the Democrat-led 100th Congress. A weak effort emerged, but Senate Republicans killed it.

Organized labor is struggling to remain relevant and claw its way back. The enormous obstacles it faces are reviewed below as well as the condition of working Americans today in a globalized world affecting their lives and welfare heading "south" in the "land of opportunity" offering pathetically little.

The Loss of High-Paying Jobs from Outsourcing Under Globalized Market-Based Rules Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, August 30, 2007

US / Mexico : Failed System and Failed State / Economics / US Economy

By: Jim_Willie_CB

TRIBUTE TO KURT RICHEBACHER. He was a valued colleague and an inspiration to my newsletter. Our week together in Cannes will forever be etched in my memory.

Amusement is my response when other writers call me or my work ‘extremist' as Claude Cormier recently has. He is a topnotch analyst out of Quebec , whose work is respected and admired. He himself cites extreme events, like comparisons between the United States and Argentina , in the decimation of the middle class amidst prolific inflation and financial sector foul play. Labels are not kind, but my job is to analyze the extreme situation on a host of fronts. To be honest, the label is taken here as an extreme compliment, since it means my perceptions are squarely on target. Additional extreme observations can be detailed, which points to systemic breakdown. The US financial system shows signs of failure, the USEconomy suffering deeply in association. If one were to list the extreme events and factors in the last few years, reaching a climax nowadays, the recitation would flow over into several dozen pages.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

The Result of 35 Years of a Paper Global Monetary System / Economics / Money Supply

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

I’ll skip the thousand words – the picture says it all.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

The Worst of All Policies - Federal Reserve Policy Blunders / Economics / Credit Crunch

By: Adrian_Ash

"To lend a great deal, and yet not give the public confidence...is the worst of all policies." - Walter Bagehot, Lombard Street  

"HISTORY PROVES that a smart central bank can protect the economy and the financial sector from the nastier side effects of a stock market collapse," wrote Ben Bernanke in Foreign Policy magazine, way back in October 2000.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Chinese Consumers Show No Sign of Slowing! / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Tony Sagami write: Just when U.S. investors were breathing a sigh of relief based on last week's uptick in new home sales, they got smacked again yesterday with far bleaker news on the larger market for existing homes:

• Another decline in sales  …

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Economics

Monday, August 27, 2007

Bottlenecks and Monetary Policies: More Economic Fallacies that Damage Economies / Economics / Money Supply

By: Gerard_Jackson

The cry is going up from our economic commentariat that the Australian economy is running into “production constraints” and that this in turn will drive up interest rates. It is also argued that this situation is likely to be compounded by the inflationary effects of rising wages. This nonsense, readers, is what passes for economic wisdom, not only in the Australian media but also the world-wide media. Listen out for the same arguments appearing more and more frequently in the US as the Bush boom gets close to its economic economic denoument, unless the Fed unexpectly slaps on the monetary brakes .

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Economics

Monday, August 27, 2007

US Dollar RIP / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

"...The call for more money to fix the financial markets comes just as global inflation is beginning to cause real mischief..."

EVEN IN DEATH, it seems, you're no longer safe from the iniquities of inflation.

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Economics

Monday, August 27, 2007

The US Trade Deficit and Chinese Surpluses: Economics v Paranoia / Economics / US Dollar

By: Gerard_Jackson

Now that the recent turmoil in international markets has subsided for now attention is returning to the sinister machinations of Beijing and its silent war against the US economy. It is held by some -- in fact, by far too many -- that China is using currency manipulation to deliberately deindustrialise the US and force its manufacturers to export jobs, as evidenced by the US trade deficit. Moreover, China is threatening to use its dollar reserves to sink the US economy.

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Economics

Friday, August 24, 2007

US Recession, It's a Shoe In / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

The current economic debate really boils down to one essential question: "Will there be a recession?" To me, the question has about as much vitality as debating whether Roger Clemens will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. (With over 300 wins and more strikeouts than any other pitcher besides Nolan Ryan, the Rocket is a sure thing for Cooperstown ). Similarly, a recession is not a question of “if” but merely of “when”.

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Economics

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Don’t Underestimate the U.S. Consumer? The Global Economy Is Strong? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

These are two common refrains from mainstream economists who never foresaw a recession until it already had been declared by the NBER. Today we received some information that ought to give these mainstreamers pause for thought.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Wall Street and Main Street Are Joined at the Hip / Economics / US Housing

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Watching Bubblevision and reading the Wall Street Journal (see August 7 edition, " Don't Panic About the Credit Market ," David Malpass), I keep hearing that what happens on Wall Street doesn't materially affect Main Street. I respectfully disagree. Main Street is more dependent on Wall Street than ever before.

Chart 1 shows the history of one simple definition of household surpluses and deficits. This definition subtracts the sum of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Residential Investment Expenditures (RIE) from Disposable Personal Income (DPI). Both PCE and RIE are "line items" in the Gross Domestic Product accounts. RIE is essentially the value-added in the private residential real estate sector - new construction of homes, including remodeling of existing homes, and the value added by real estate brokers. DPI is equal to all income currently earned by households, including employer contributions to pension funds, interest on investments, dividends on corporate equities and rents on property less taxes paid by households.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

China's Economic Blackmail / Economics / China Economy

By: Joel_S_Hirschhorn

Massive amounts of Chinese imports are threatening public health and safety. Many food and consumer products pose risks. Lead in children's toys and jewelry. Toxins in foods for pets and humans, and in toothpaste. Unsafe automobile tires. Many prescription drugs made with few safeguards. The list is endless. The federal government is not safeguarding American citizens through thorough testing of imports.

Why?

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