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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, June 12, 2009

The Coming Economic Collapse Part3 / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the last two essays, we’ve detailed:

  • How the US outsourced its job market starting in 1971
  • The US’s economic shift from manufacturing to financial services
  • The rise of credit as a means to maintaining one’s quality of life
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Economics

Friday, June 12, 2009

The Coming Economic Collapse Part2 / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday’s essay is part two of our three part series detailing the ongoing collapse of the US economy with a focus on why this coming fall will prove the “worst is over” crowd wrong yet again. On Friday we detailed three major developments. They were:

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Economics

Friday, June 12, 2009

UK Economy Promising Signs of Business Confidence Rises Again / Economics / UK Economy

By: Lloyds_TSB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLloyds TSB Business Barometer ‘monthly snapshot’ for May shows:
 Business confidence improved for the third consecutive month
 Surge in number of firms expecting better business conditions this year
 Firms regain faith in UK economic prospects
 Trend in increasing confidence should continue through next few months

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Economics

Friday, June 12, 2009

The Coming Economic Collapse Pt1 / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday I outlined how the mainstream financial media is completely overlooking the similarities between this latest rally and the one leading into the summer of 2008.

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Economics

Thursday, June 11, 2009

UK Trade Deficit Widens to £3.0 Billion / Economics / UK Economy

By: ONS

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was £3.0 billion in April, compared with the deficit of £2.7 billion in March (originally published as a deficit of £2.5 billion).

The surplus on trade in services was £4.0 billion, compared with a surplus of £3.8 billion in March.

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Economics

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Goldman Forecasts China Economy in the Ascendency / Economics / China Economy

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGoldman Sachs now forecasts that the China economy will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy by 2027.  Several emerging market countries are predicted by Goldman to overtake key developed market countries in the not too distant future.

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Economics

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Worst of the U.S. Recession Over / Economics / US Economy

By: Pravda

Oil prices soared above $71 a barrel Wednesday to reach a 2009 high, as investors poured money into crude markets to protect themselves against the inflation risks posed by a weakening U.S. dollar.

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Economics

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Bankrupt Britain's Public Sector Double Dip Debt Recession on Deep Spending Cuts / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAndrew Lansley, the Shadow Health Secretary made the fatal mistake on Wednesday of telling the public the truth on Tory spending plans following the next election, which as we have seen by the expenses scandal is a big NO, NO when it comes to politicians. The truth that he soon backtracked upon was the fact that the Conservatives WILL make severe cuts in public spending of at least 10% across the board, regardless of the subsequent diatribe emanating out of the Conservative party to hide this fact.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

NIESR Reports UK Recession Over, Economic Recovery Underway / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe mainstream 'respected' forecasting organisation, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reported earlier today that it believed that Britain's economic depression bottomed in March and that economic output across the economy rose in April 09 by 0.2% and by 0.1% in May 2009, which follows my own analysis of a stabilising economy a week ago which was also emailed to the NIESR forecasting organisation.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Is the U.S. Economy Heading for a “Jobless Recovery?” / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: Could the U.S. economy be looking at a “jobless recovery?”

After the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression reached its apex late last year, the U.S. economy has shown signs of life in recent months. Stock prices have soared.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

A Tale of Two Diverging Economic Worlds / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: F_William_Engdahl

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIncreasingly a deep divide within the world of globalization is emerging which will have the most profound significance for the future of G7 nations’ economic and political stability. The divide is between those nations which are still embedded within the dollar system, including countries in the Eurozone, versus those emerging economies—especially the BRIC—Brazil, Russia, India, China—where new economic markets and regions are rapidly replacing their over-dependence on the United States as prime export market and prime source for investment finance. The long-term consequences will be an aggravation of the trend of the United States as a political and economic superpower in terminal decline, while dynamic new economic zones, initially mainly of regional importance, will arise.  

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Economics

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

What the Dramatic Turn in the U.S. Saving Rate Could Mean to You / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleClaus Vogt writes: During the past few weeks of exciting “green shoot” news, a very important economic statistic has been ignored: The U.S. saving rate.

U.S. citizens have been saving less and less since the early 1980s. And the saving rate even turned negative during the height of the real estate bubble.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Is U.S. Heading for Zimbabwe Style Hyperinflation or Deflation? / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Whitney

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Republicans are convinced that hyperinflation is just around the corner, but don't believe it. The real enemy is deflation, which is why Fed chief Bernanke has taken such extraordinary steps to pump liquidity into the system. The economy is flat on its back and hemorrhaging a half a million jobs per month. The housing market is crashing, retail sales are in a funk, manufacturing is down, exports are falling, and consumers have started saving for the first time in decades. There's excess capacity everywhere and aggregate demand has dropped off a cliff. If it wasn't for the Fed's monetary stimulus and myriad lending facilities, the economy would be stretched out on a marble slab right now. So, where's the inflation?  Here's Paul Krugman with part of the answer:

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Economics

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

The Consequences of Weak Dollar and Economic Stimulus Has Started to Arrive / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Michael_Pento

The consequences of adopting a weak dollar and inflationary monetary policy to bail out the economy have begun to manifest themselves, although the real effects of the government’s $12.8 trillion dollar recovery plan have only just started to show up. Investors should not be surprised to learn that the commitments, guarantees, and prodigal spending of the past two Administrations have come with harrowing consequences. Surprising or not, these painful consequences are just beginning to appear and are rather insidious in nature.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Lessons for Economists on Deflationary, Deleveraging Recessions / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a debate in academic circles on the lessons of the current economic crisis. While most ivory tower debates are of little concern to our daily affairs, this debate should concern you, as it will inform those who hold central bank and political power. Remember, there is no playbook of rules for what to do in deflationary, deleveraging recessions. They are making it up as they go along.

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Economics

Monday, June 08, 2009

Economic Policy Makers Have Created A Perfect Financial Storm / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009

By: Paul_Craig_Roberts

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic news remains focused on banks and housing, while the threat mounts to the US dollar from massive federal budget deficits in fiscal years 2009 and 2010.

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Economics

Monday, June 08, 2009

Is the U.S. Economy Heading for Stagflation? / Economics / Stagflation

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIrrespective of how Obama's media supporters try to spin it the unemployment situation is grave and still deteriorating. This was not supposed to happen. According to his economic advisors the situation would be disastrous unless congress rushed through Obama's stimulus package. Dr. Christine Romer -- one of Obama's chief economic advisors -- predicted unemployment would hit 8.8 per cent unless swift action was undertaken.

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Economics

Sunday, June 07, 2009

London Retail Price Inflation Falls the Most Over the Past 12 Months / Economics / Inflation

By: HBOS

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLondon experienced the largest decline in retail prices1 over the past year with a 2.8% fall between 2008 quarter one and 2009 quarter one, according to new research by Halifax. This was more than twice the 1.3%* fall for the UK as a whole. However, despite this, the overall price level in the capital remains higher than any other UK region. All 12 UK regions recorded a decline in retail prices over the past 12 months.

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Economics

Sunday, June 07, 2009

Optimistic Unemployment and Housing Market Forecasts Looking Silly / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomics may be the "dismal science" but economists as a group sure seem to be an optimistic lot. Yes, there are a handful of "doomers" like Nouriel Roubini but most economists did not see the recession coming until it was already 10 months old.

Please consider unemployment forecasts. The Fed forecast unemployment at 8.4% in 2009 and the "adverse forecast" was at 10.3% in 2010.

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Economics

Sunday, June 07, 2009

U.S. Treasury Spread Model Suggests Economic Recovery has Started / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“According to the New York Fed, ‘Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity.’

“The New York Fed just released its latest ‘Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread’, with data through May 2009, and the Fed’s recession probability forecast through May 2010. The NY Fed’s model uses the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates (currently at 3.11%) to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.

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