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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, August 12, 2013

Obamacare, Stimulus, and Other Economic Disasters / Economics / Government Intervention

By: David_Gordon

John Lott is best known to the public for his outstanding analysis of gun control legislation, but his research as an economist extends far beyond that topic; and he here gives us a devastating account that covers the full range of the Obama Administration’s economic policy.

Readers stirred to anger by the simpleminded statism of Paul Krugman will be delighted by Lott’s demolition of several of his claims. To those who urge that high taxes on the wealthy discourage investment, to the disadvantage of us all, Krugman often recalls the palmary era of the 1950s. Did we not then see very high tax rates together with high rates of economic growth? “In the 1950s incomes in the top bracket faced a marginal tax rate of 91, that’s right, 91 percent, while taxes on corporate profits were twice as large, relative to national income, as in recent years.” (p. 200, quoting Krugman)

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Economics

Monday, August 12, 2013

The Cult Of Economic Propaganda / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Andrew_McKillop

COMPULSIVE LYING
Modern economic communication can be called a degenerate art. For the Nazi regime 'entartete Kunst' meant degenerate art and described virtually all modern art – which was banned as anti-German.  Today, economic propaganda has reached a high point of degeneracy, falsifying all and any information with a very simple goal. The information available to anybody – whether specialists or ordinary citizens – is no longer sure. Consequently we do not know what is really happening, but more important, almost nobody cares. This is one key goal of any propaganda campaign – to produce a confused, disoriented, fearful and childish-minded public craving for reassurance.

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Economics

Saturday, August 10, 2013

The Half Full U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

The marginal economic strength that was described in the most recent GDP release from Washington has caused many to double down on their belief that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering Quantitative Easing sometime later this year. While I believe that is a fantasy given our economy's extreme dependence on QE, market observers should have learned long ago that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) initial GDP estimates can't be trusted. A perusal of their subsequent GDP revisions in the last five years reveals a clear trend: They are almost twice as likely to revise initial estimates down rather than up, and the downward adjustments have been much larger on average.

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Economics

Friday, August 09, 2013

Fingers of Instability - Developed World Centrally Planned Socialist Economies Continue to Fail / Economics / US Economy

By: Ty_Andros

"In the blink of an eye this week, they made the size of the American economy grow by $560 billion." This is but the latest addition to PHANTOM growth to cover up gross mismanagement of the economy by Washington DC (District of Corruption). A few of the items of NEW growth created out of thin air include double counting of R&D spending which is ALREADY contained in final sales numbers, another is unfunded pension obligations are now called PAID wages. A report of growth is nothing but an apparition (ghost). When socialists can’t get the economy to grow they rely on doublespeak and newspeak for the masses.  Look at an illustration of what the new phantom growth has done to the record books courtesy of Lance Roberts (www.streettalklive.com, I highly recommend this newsletter):

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Economics

Friday, August 09, 2013

A Monetary Master Explains Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Terry_Coxon

[Ed. note: One of the best things about being a partner in a research firm employing about 40 analysts is that I have unfettered access to really smart people. While we have a great team with expertise across the spectrum, when it comes to monetary matters, my go-to guy is Terry Coxon, a senior editor for our flagship publication, The Casey Report.

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Economics

Thursday, August 08, 2013

The Part Time-ification of America: How We've Been Conned Again / Economics / Employment

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: By now, you've had a few days to digest the "wonderful" jobs numbers reported from Washington last Friday.

Well, don't get too excited about the economy. We've been conned again.

First off, 59% of all jobs created this year are in 3 sectors: Leisure/Hospitality, Retail Trade and Administrative/Waste Services. Wages in those sectors have fallen by 0.7%. These jobs pay an average of $15.80 per hour versus the $23.98 average hourly wage. Which means "jobs creation" just equals cheaper labor.

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Economics

Thursday, August 08, 2013

U.S.Demographic Trends and Economic GDP Growth / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

For today's Outside the Box we have a very special research piece by Rob Arnott of Research Associates and his colleague Denis Chaves. Rob was with us at Leen's Lodge last week, and in the final evening discussion session he asked an interesting question having to do with demography and GDP growth. I was intrigued by it, but the group soon moved on without fully exploring Rob's idea; so I mentioned it to him again later, and he was good enough to send along the following paper.

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Economics

Monday, August 05, 2013

If the U.S. Economy is Recovering… Why Is Nominal GDP in a Recession? / Economics / Recession 2013

By: Graham_Summers

The financial world is abuzz with the unexpected jump higher in our manufacturing and non-ISM(s). The world seems to think these two jumps are the result of the US economy suddenly getting back on track.

The whole thing smacks of political games. Is it really coincidence that the scandal-ridden Obama administration suddenly decided to focus on the economy (again) and the official economic data starts improving the next week?

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Economics

Monday, August 05, 2013

July Jobs Report Confirms Major Problems with U.S. Employment, Economy / Economics / Employment

By: Money_Morning

Diane Alter writes: The July jobs report brings the total number of part-time jobs created this year to more than three times the amount of full-time jobs added.

Welcome to America: Land of part-timers...

The trend was pronounced in June when data revealed part-time jobs grew by a robust 360,000 and full-time jobs declined by 240,000. Friday's July jobs report was further proof.

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Economics

Monday, August 05, 2013

The Worst U.S. Jobs Report in Four Months Does One Thing / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: This morning we got news that 162,000 jobs were created in July in the U.S. economy—the worst showing in the past four months. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 2, 2013.)

And when we look closely at the July U.S. jobs market report, it gets worse.

First off, the previous months’ numbers keep getting revised downward; the number of jobs added to the U.S. economy in May was revised down from 195,000 to 176,000, and June’s numbers were revised down from 195,000 to 188,000—combined, that’s 26,000 jobs that never really happened.

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Economics

Monday, August 05, 2013

Shadow Banking - Is our Monetary Policy Dictated by the Peoples Bank of China? / Economics / China Economy

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

The current credit crunch in China is due to PBOC’s (People's Bank Of China) or China's Central Bank refusal to act as the lender of last resort to help banks to get out of their own financial mess. It also demonstrates that Central bank is willing to allow market forces to play a bigger role. This is to mean that banks will have to be on their own since PBOC has indicated that it will not be bailing them out this round. As a result banks have no choice but to be more conservative in their lending policies. What PBOC hope to achieve out of this?

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Economics

Friday, August 02, 2013

Ravenous Vampire-Hounds Of Inflationary Hell / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Daughty

Thinking back on it, I see that I was, indeed, “on the edge” of going, as I seem to routinely be these days, completely berserk about how the evil Federal Reserve is creating so irresponsibly much, so staggeringly much, so impossibly much, so disastrously much excess currency and credit that We’re Freaking Doomed (WFD) to ruination and complete bankruptcy by the unstoppable inflation in prices, crushing weight of unpayable debt and a monstrous, suffocating government.

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Economics

Friday, August 02, 2013

Why QE Money Printing Hasn't Stimulated the U.S. Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Clif_Droke

After the Fed's latest 2-day policy meeting it announced on Wednesday that it would continue its $85 billion per month asset purchase program. The major indices fluctuated from positive to negative throughout the day, as is typical of a Fed meeting day, before closing basically unchanged.

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Economics

Thursday, August 01, 2013

Curious GDP Deflator: Understanding Why Q2 GDP Growth Wasn’t 0.6% / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short:How do you get from Nominal GDP to Real GDP? You extract inflation from the numbers. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses its own GDP deflator for this purpose, one that is somewhat different from the BEA’s deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures and quite a bit different from the better-known Bureau of Labor Statistics’ inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Increasing Probability for Cyclical Recession / Economics / Recession 2013

By: Profit_Confidential

Mitchell Clark writes: This is a big week for capital markets, with the Federal Reserve meeting and July’s unemployment numbers to be released on Friday.

One thing that’s been clear with the stock market is that it has been staying lofty, mostly due to the expectation that the Fed will continue quantitative easing. But under this continued monetary stimulus, financial results are showing mediocrity.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Economic Future - The Blip! / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

This week's Outside the Box does not make me feel good, but author Benjamin Wallace-Wells does explain Robert Gordon’s views better than anyone I have seen. (And of course the whole point of Outside the Box is to yank us out of our comfort zones from time to time.)

Dr. Robert Gordon is a professor of economics who has held a named chair at Northwestern University for decades; but as the author of this piece says, "[T]he scope of his bleakness has given him, over the past year, a newfound public profile." Gordon offers us two key predictions, both discomfiting. The first pertains to the near future, when, he says, our economy will grow at less than half its average rate over the last century because of a whole raft of structural headwinds.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Why What Happens to the Chinese Economy Is Critical to America / Economics / China Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The Chinese experiment is over—at least that’s what some in the financial media are saying. Well, guess what? It’s not over, but there will be hurdles along the road for China, as the country struggles to drive its domestic consumption and make sure the economy doesn’t tank.

The reality is that what happens in China is critical to America and the global economy. In fact, I will go as far as to say China is an increasingly important barometer for global business.

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Economics

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Ugly Secular Employment Trend of Part-Time Work, Emergening Underclass, the Lost Generation / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

It is pretty well established that a tax increase, especially an income tax increase, will have an immediate negative effect on the economy, with a multiplier of between 1 and 3 depending upon whose research you accept. As far as I am aware, no peer-reviewed study exists that concludes there will be no negative effects. The US economy is soft; employment growth is weak – and yet we are about to see a significant middle-class tax increase, albeit a stealth one, passed by the current administration. I will acknowledge that dealing a blow to the economy was not the actual plan, but that is what is happening in the real world where you and I live. This week we will briefly look at why weak consumer spending is going to become an even greater problem in the coming years, and we will continue to look at some disturbing trends in employment.

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Economics

Friday, July 26, 2013

Forecasting China - Rebalancing - Change And Discontinuity / Economics / China Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Forecasting China trends is now a hard ride. The days of rock solid 10%-a-year growth are going, going, gone. Like the celestial Dragon which Chinese astrologers place at the center of their Magic Square – able to appear or disappear without warning to the 11 other real Animals such as the Monkey, Snake, Cat or Horse. China has woken up to what is a new problem for Chinese, but not for others. Its slowdown of economic growth, but possible slump into very low growth was a process that took about 40 years for the USA and 20 years for Japan - but may may only take 10 years for China.

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Economics

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Free Spending Japan Now Headed for Economic Recovery? / Economics / Japan Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: It’s official: free-spending Prime Minister Shinzo Abe along with his Liberal Democratic Party and its alliance with the New Komeito Party will control the fate of Japan for the next few years. This will be enough power and support to push forward Abe’s massive and ambitious $1.2 trillion 10-year spending plan to drive the country’s economic recovery and battle deflation.

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