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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Make America Economically Great Again / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

I recall writing (back in the 1990s and early 2000s) that one of the great things about the US was our economic mobility. By that, I mean the ability of people to shift on the economic spectrum—to move from being a low-income family to being a high-income family, for example.

But recent studies tell us this is no longer the case.

It means the America I grew up in is changing. And that cuts right into my emotional comfort zone. I guess this should not surprise me because (a) the US is always changing, and (b) the evidence clearly shows the cultural shifts and economic woes of the younger generation.

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Economics

Saturday, October 29, 2016

BEA Estimates US 3rd Quarter 2016 GDP Growth to be 2.91% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their first ("preliminary") estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +2.91%, up +1.49% from the prior quarter.

Most of the reported improvement in the headline number came from a +1.77% quarter-to-quarter gain in inventories, a +0.96% rise in exports, and a +0.39% uptick in governmental spending. Offsetting those improvements was an aggregate -1.41% reduction in the headline number from softening consumer spending on both goods and services. Fixed investments remained in contraction at a -0.09% annualized rate.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Globalization Faces Challenges / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Browne

For much of the second half of the 20th Century, and even into the new millennium, "Globalization" was the dominant theme used to describe the drift of the world economy. It was widely considered both natural and inevitable that the world economy would continue to integrate and that national boundaries would become less constraining to commerce and culture. And with the exception of the eternal "anti-globalization" protesters, who robotically appeared at large gatherings of world leaders, the benefits of globalization were widely lauded by politicians, corporate leaders and rank and file citizens alike. But a casual glance at the world headlines of 2016 suggests that the belief in globalization has crested, and is now in retreat. What are the consequences of this change?

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Economics

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Government Stimulus is an Oxymoron, Debt to GDP / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2016

By: Michael_Pento

The accumulation of Debt, at its very essence, is simply borrowing consumption from the future. And this is true on any level of debt, be it either public or private. Just as savings is deferred consumption, the exact opposite is true for debt. Therefore, it can only be beneficial in the long-term if it leads to an expansion of productivity in the present. If the funds borrowed do not improve output per unit of labor it is much more difficult to pay back that debt and any perceived benefit ends up being nothing more than an ephemeral illusion.

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Economics

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Inflation About To Explode Higher / Economics / Inflation

By: James_Quinn

“Those who are capable of tyranny are capable of perjury to sustain it.” ― Lysander Spooner

We all know the BLS artificially suppresses the CPI through bullshit substitution adjustments, quality adjustments, and various other incomprehensible hedonic adjustments made by government apparatchiks at the behest of their politician bosses. Some obscure theoretical academic  calculation called owners equivalent rent accounts for almost a quarter of the CPI weighting.

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Economics

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Why The Global Economy Will Disintegrate Rapidly Back to Olduvai Gorge / Economics / Economic Collapse

By: Raul_I_Meijer

We have written little on the topic of energy lately, other than related to oil prices going up and down, empty OPEC ‘promises’ to cut oil production, and the incredible debt load threatening to crush US -and Canadian- unconventional oil and gas. It’s a logical outcome of focusing more on finance than energy, because we feel the former has a shorter timeline than the latter. Something that harks back to our Oil Drum days.

But that doesn’t mean that the idea and/or principle of peak oil has disappeared, or that we have completely forgotten it. It has just been snowed under by the financial crisis (and by unconventinal oil and gas). And while we continue to find that the financial world will dump us into a bigger crisis sooner than energy will, it’s useful to look at oil et al from time to time.

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Economics

Friday, October 21, 2016

Central Bankers Can't Stop The Death Blow Of The Post US Election Recession / Economics / Recession 2017

By: Gordon_T_Long

The central bankers are capable of achieving many extraordinary results but not all economic and financial problems can be solved by central bankers. Central Bankers for example have the power to solve liquidity issues, but it is impossible for them to solve solvency issues.  Central Bankers through Financial Repression can transfer risk , however they can't remove it from the system. Additionally, Central bankers may be able to delay a recession temporarily, but  they can't prevent the business cycle from running its natural course.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Demographics Are the Biggest Drag on the US Economy / Economics / Demographics

By: John_Mauldin

BY SAMUEL RINES: The US economy has slowed, and the reasons for the sluggish growth cause heated arguments among market participants and economists alike. There are two outspoken camps: “the good ole days are coming back” and “this is normal.” The camps have little in common, except yelling at one another. 

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Economics

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

The Limits of Empirical Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Two separate economic developments over the last 100 years have caused macroeconomics to regress instead of progress. The first is the Keynesian, or more accurately Malthusian, notion of aggregate demand. The second is Friedman’s positive empiricism emphasising the importance of empirical verification of economic theory.

According to positive empiricism, adherence to economic facts is the only way to validate economic theories.

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Economics

Monday, October 17, 2016

Bank of England Blames Brexit for Sterling Drop Inflation, Masks QE Money Printing Cause / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England's master monetary magician Mark Carney appeared on stage this week presenting his latest magic trick one of blaming the 16% drop in sterling on Brexit on all those who voted for it, and then warning of the inevitable future inflation consequences as the price of imports look to soar. After all the establishment elite remain determined to subvert the will of the British people be they bankers or 80% of the members of the establishment MP's that illustrates that democracy is to to all intents and purposes an illusion.

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Economics

Sunday, October 16, 2016

End of Economic Growth Sparks Wide Discontent / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Former British diplomat and MI6 ‘ranking figure’ Alastair Crooke quotes my September 26 article “Why There is Trump” so extensively in this article for Consortium News that I thought I might as well post the whole thing here at the Automatic Earth too. The other sources he also quotes -John Gray, Stephen Hadley among them- help to put my points in a solid perspective, which is nice to see. I can only hope that this will open more people’s eyes to the fact that in the end of growth and centralization, we are witnessing the “most important global development in decades.”

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Economics

Friday, October 14, 2016

The Next Recession Will Blow Out the Budget / Economics / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

The odds that the next US President will face a recession during his or her first four years in office are quite high. Maybe not in the first year, but it’s highly unlikely he or she will get more than two to three years without one.

Given this fiscal reality and the dwindling number of arrows left in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy quiver, the administration will have a hard time dealing with the fallout from a recession.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Samsung's Galaxy Battery Just The Tip Of The Iceberg / Economics / Global Economy

By: Gordon_T_Long

Are Central Bankers Crippling The Global Supply Chain?

Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith begin 'pealing the onion' on a deteriorating global supply chain and what the root cause is.

Though the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 battery problem is presently receiving a tremendous amount of media and public attention, what few appreciate is that it is only the tip of the iceberg of cracks in the global supply chained as a result of unintended consequences of central bank monetary policies. In this 35 minute video Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith begin 'pealing the onion' on a deteriorating global supply chain and what the root cause is.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

The World Is Turning Dangerously Insular / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

A toxic mix of short-sighted policy and isolationist politics is endangering the global economy.

In his recent talk at the Strategic Investment Conference 2016, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff argues that there are growing threats looming over the global economy.

He believes that current macroeconomic and political trends could lead to serious problems in China, and especially Europe, in the not too distant future.

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Economics

Friday, October 07, 2016

The Next Recession Looms Large / Economics / Recession 2016

By: Peter_Schiff

Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 05, 2016

The Hyperinflationary Death Watch / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense – perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire – that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other. – Alan Greenspan

Every hyperinflation is unique. No one wants the chaos it will bring. We are not rooting for it. Monetary crisis is always part and parcel or a extension of the inevitable cycles of history.

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Economics

Thursday, September 29, 2016

BEA Revises Q2 2016 US GDP Growth Upward to 1.42% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their third and final estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +1.42%, up +0.33% from their previous estimate and up +0.59% from the prior quarter. Most of the improvement in the headline number came from a +0.24% upward revision in commercial fixed investment. None of the other revisions were statistically significant.

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Economics

Saturday, September 24, 2016

US Economy GDP Growth Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% Q3, 1.22% Q4 / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

GDP estimates for third and fourth quarter are now in a free-fall.

Last Friday the FRBNY Nowcast was in a blackout period because of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Today we see estimates tor the last two weeks. Let's also take a look at my guess of the estimates vs. how the estimates came in.

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Economics

Friday, September 23, 2016

Hedonics, Food, and Pluralistic Ignorance / Economics / Inflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Inflation is alive and well – despite what we hear from the mainstream. Due to pluralistic ignorance, it persists much longer than anyone would have ever predicted.

From Wikipedia:

Pluralistic ignorance 

“In social psychology, pluralistic ignorance is a situation in which a majority of group members privately reject a norm, but incorrectly assume that most others accept it, and therefore go along with it.[1] This is also described as ‘no one believes, but everyone thinks that everyone believes’.”

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Economics

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Japan’s Economy Impending Monetary Exhaustion  / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Japan’s monetary gamble and Abenomics are approaching the end of the road. Neither Brussels nor Washington is immune to the adverse consequences of Tokyo's monetary exhaustion, says Dan Steinbock.

Recently, Japan’s second quarter GDP growth was revised up to 0.7 percent, after four consecutive quarters of stagnation. But don’t set your hopes too high.

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