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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, February 24, 2013

The Keynesian Economic Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

In today’s Outside the Box, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Funds, regales us with the not-always-happy history of Keynesian economics – we did what he said when we had to, but not always when we should have. Shoving fiscal and monetary stimulus down the throat of a recession is well and good, but how about the part where we’re supposed to be fiscally conservative during boom times? “What, raise taxes? No thank you!”

The upshot, as Minerd reminds us, is that “As a result of the constant fiscal support without the tax increases, businesses and households became comfortable operating with continuously higher leverage ratios. The conventional wisdom was that this government backstop could never be exhausted.” Today we are testing that premise to the limit, and not only in the US.

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Economics

Saturday, February 23, 2013

How Long Can U.S. Economy’s Sweet Spot Last This Time? / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Until recently, the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis and meltdown has been in stealth mode all the way, much of the country either unaware of the progress - or in denial that it was happening.

That’s even been true of investors, whose success depends so much on being able to separate the facts and reality from the static and noise. 

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Economics

Friday, February 22, 2013

Currency Wars - China Robbing Joe To Pay Chan / Economics / Currency War

By: Richard_Mills

Lately there’s been a lot of talk regarding currency wars. Let’s take a look at why competitive currency devaluations – currency wars – won’t accomplish what’s intended and why we’re going to have to see increasing U.S. protectionism (subsidies, tariffs etc.) regarding global trade.

Currency War - when countries around the world start competing (competitive devaluation) to make their currency cheaper than everyone else’s as a way to boost trade.

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Economics

Friday, February 22, 2013

Illusion of Euro-zone Stability as France Sinks Further Into the Economic Gutter / Economics / France

By: Mike_Shedlock

While laughing at the amusing exchange of letters between the CEO of Titan and Arnaud Montebourg, Minister of Industrial Renewal of France, I awaited the latest PMI report on France, expecting findings to be horrific.

The PMI reports are out today, and inquiring minds will note the Markit Flash France PMI shows the decline in French private sector output accelerates further to reach near four-year record.

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Economics

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Is Japan's Economy Heading for an Endgame? / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised to boost the Japanese economy by unlimited stimulus and increased government intervention in the financial market. The Japanese economy has been bogged down by lucklustre economic growth which can be shown by the following GDP Growth chart from 1993-2013.

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Economics

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Zombinomics - Paul Krugman and Zombie Financial History / Economics / Economic Theory

By: William_Anderson

Murray Rothbard liked to say that economists often tended to specialize in the area where their knowledge was the worst, and given Paul Krugman's butchery of the historical record, I'd say Rothbard had a good point. Regular readers of Krugman's columns and blog posts and other public statements would believe, for example, that World War II ended the Great Depression, that Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy (who were major forces in deregulation during the 1970s) were conservative Republicans, and that the only thing better than war to bring prosperity would be the nationwide preparation to fight an invasion of imaginary space aliens.

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Economics

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Deflation Arrives In The Eurozone / Economics / Deflation

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Dave Fairtex: I've recently been exploring the statistical data warehouse provided by the ECB, and I was able to assemble the following chart, comprising MFI Loans (MFI = monetary financial institution) + Bonds (sovereign & corporate). It was good timing, because it shows that for the first time during this whole crisis, the eurozone has dropped into deflation.

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Economics

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Usury, Greed, Disorganized Capital and The Playtime Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2013

By: Andrew_McKillop

USURY
The French law No 737 of July 2010 relating to and defining usury for consumer credit loans, and applied by the Bank of France on credit supplying establishments, defines the rate at which loans of less than 1524 euros become "usurious" and illegal at 20.30%. For loans of more than 1524 euros, usury starts at 19.89% annual, for loans from 1 January 2013. The less you borrow, the more you pay in interest - this is economics in motion, for example the notion that it is"logical" that borrowing less produces more risk for the lender! The European Central Bank, which at any time can lend to the Bank of France, for loans from July 2012, from its highest rate Marginal Lending Facility, presently charges 1.50% per year for these "higher risk" loans, which BoF can then distribute or on-lend to private banks at "advantageous rates". Obviously an interesting business.

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Economics

Friday, February 15, 2013

From Shipping To Shopping: Rationing To Economic Austerity / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

MODELS AND PRECEDENTS
When World War II started in September 1939 the UK's first rationed commodity was unsurprisingly petroleum. By January 1940 food was added to the list: bacon, butter and sugar were firstly rationed, followed by meat, tea, coffee, jam, biscuits, breakfast cereals, cheese, eggs, lard, milk, canned fruits and dried fruits. This, also unsurprisingly, produced a black market within the first 12 months.

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Economics

Thursday, February 14, 2013

The Deflationary Spiral Bogey / Economics / Deflation

By: Robert_Blumen

What is deflation? According to dictionary.com, it is “a fall in the general price level or a contraction of credit and available money.”

Falling prices. That sounds good, especially if you have set some cash set aside and are thinking about a major purchase.

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Economics

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Why Inflation in 2013 Is Imminent / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Jeff Uscher writes: Is a spike in the monetary base - currency in circulation plus bank reserves at the Fed - the first sign of imminent inflation?

Art Cashin, the well-respected director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange for UBS, recently told King World News the increase in the monetary base may well be a sign of impending inflation.

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Economics

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Pensions Catastrophe, Government Tricks Digging a Very Deep Hole / Economics / Pensions & Retirement

By: John_Mauldin

“The government is the prisoner of the bureaucracy. We have 4,021 associations and 6,200 codes. You simply cannot change things. There are 600,000 tax elements. No one really knows who pays what.” – A journalist in Greece

For all the focus on the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare, there is another unfunded crisis brewing, and this one is in your own back yard. It’s coming to you even if you live outside of the US; it just might take a little longer to get there. I wrote ten years ago that state and local pension funds might be underfunded by as much as $2 trillion. It turns out that I was being overly optimistic. New government research suggests that the figure might be as high as $3 trillion. But what if you take into account that retirees are living longer? An IMF study that we’ll look at in a few minutes does just that. And if we live a lot longer? Oh my. The problems are not universal – some cities and states will do fine, while others are already in deep kimchee – but it’s a big problem and getting worse.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Politicians Waging War on Work / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Nicholas Freiling writes: Employment law is a mainstay of state economic policy. Few question its efficacy as a means to correct “market failures”—like unlivable wages for meaningful work—that would leave society in shambles. In fact, no serious debate exists among American policymakers about the benefits of such laws. Their utility is simply assumed.

But laws that restrict or stipulate the terms of voluntary employment contracts stifle economic progress and make life harder for everyone—even those for whom the laws were designed to aid.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Why America’s Economic Confidence Is Fragile / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The recession is over, and the U.S. economy is showing some encouraging signs of economic renewal.

Shoppers are hitting the malls and stores, helping to drive up retail sales. I’d stick with the top department stores, like Macys, Inc. (NYSE/M), or discounters, such as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE/WMT), which will continue to rebound.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

The Great American Economic Rebound Has Just Begun / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Money_Morning

Martin Hutchinson writes: The U.S. manufacturing renaissance is not just a fantasy - it is actually happening. Jobs that had been outsourced to China and elsewhere really are returning to the United States.

Believe it or not, this "reshoring" already has reversed the long, steady decline of manufacturing jobs in the U.S.

In fact, since 2010 America has added roughly 500,000 manufacturing jobs, an increase of 4.3%.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

China Economy Out With the Dragon, In With the Snake / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

During this Chinese New Year, more than a billion people will be welcoming in the Year of the Black Water Snake, celebrating with family and friends all week long. The previous Year of the Black Water Snake was in 1953, which was when China launched its first Five-Year Plan and the average annual income for a family in the U.S. was about $4,000.

As the Dragon took its last breath of the year, it exhaled plenty of fire into China: Looking at year-over-year data as of the end of January, new bank loans, passenger car sales and exports all rose while inflation was slightly lower. Imports of key commodities we track, crude oil, aluminum and copper, were also exceptional, with month-over-month increases of 6 percent, 4 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

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Economics

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Euro-zone Rebalancing the Wrong Way as German Trade Surplus Hits Five-Year High / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Mike_Shedlock

Looking for evidence of rebalancing in Europe? Don't look here: German 2012 trade surplus soars despite weak December reports

Germany's trade surplus was the second highest in more than 60 years in 2012, pointing to an underlying resilience in Europe's largest economy, although both imports and exports disappointed in the last month of the year.

Exports rose just 0.3 percent in December from November, compared with a forecast rise of 1.3 percent, and imports fell 1.3 percent against expectations for a rise of 1.4 percent .

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Economics

Sunday, February 10, 2013

The Economic Errors of Keynes / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Philipp_Bagus

[Los Errores de la Vieja Economía • Juan Ramón Rallo • UNIÓN EDITORIAL, S.A.; 1st edition]

The Austrian School of economics has provided the world with devastating critics of Keynes's magnum opus The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (TGT) for a long time. Friedrich A. von Hayek, Jacques Rueff, Henry Hazlitt, Murray Rothbard, Ludwig Lachmann, Ludwig von Mises, and William Hutt have already provided important arguments against Keynes and Keynesianism.

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Economics

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Fed’s Destructive Monetary Policies Expose Mainstream Economic Fallacies / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Shostak

At the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in San Diego (January 4–6, 2013), Harvard professor of economics Benjamin Friedman said,

The standard models we teach … simply have no room in them for what most of the world’s central banks have done in response to the crisis.

Friedman also advises sweeping aside the importance of the role of monetary aggregates. On this he said,

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Economics

Saturday, February 09, 2013

John Williams: How to Survive the Illusion of Economic Recovery / Economics / Great Depression II

By: The_Gold_Report

There is no economic recovery, and there are no signs that a recovery is coming, says Shadowstats.com author John Williams. In this Gold Report interview, he blames mal-adjusted inflation statistics for creating an alternate reality that overestimates economic activity in a way that is unsustainable. Williams warns that eventually the painful truth will be so difficult that even government manipulation won't be able to deny it and that is when hyperinflation will take its toll on those who have not taken his advice for preserving purchasing power and securing wealth.

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