Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Sputtering U.S. Economy, Look Out Below! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Whitney
The slowdown has begun. The economy has started to sputter and unemployment claims have tipped 400,000 for the last seven weeks. That means new investment is too weak to lower the jobless rate which is presently stuck at 9 percent. Manufacturing--which had been the one bright-spot in the recovery-- has also started to retreat with some areas in the country now contracting. Housing, of course, continues its downward trek putting more pressure on bank balance sheets and plunging more homeowners into negative equity.
Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Central Banks Choice Between Hyperinflation or Great Depression II / Economics / Central Banks
By: Gary_North
Western Europe has invented two institutions that have taken over the world: the university and the central bank. Today, both are under fire as never before. At the same time, both are in their respective diver's seats. The greater the criticism, the better they do for themselves.
We are finally seeing articles on the bubble in higher education. It isn't a bubble. Government money still flows in by the hundreds of billions a year.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Falling U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Wipes Out Gains of Last Six Months / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 60.8 in May from 66.0 in the prior month. The 5.2-point decline wiped out a large part of the improvement of the last six months. The Present Situation (39.3 vs. 40.2) and Expectations (75.2 vs. 83.2) indexes both fell in May.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Why Innovation Needs Big Government / Economics / Government Intervention
By: Ian_Fletcher
Most people realize that the Federal budget deficit and the trade deficit are serious problems. Unfortunately, as I have argued previously, few people grasp the importance of another big deficit in our economy, without which it will be extremely hard to fix the first two: our innovation deficit. Simply put: despite appearances to the contrary, our economy is not innovative enough. And it’s costing us, big-time.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Europe on the Edge of Abyss, U.S. Housing Market In the Abyss / Economics / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Mike_Shedlock
Robert Samuelson on Real Clear Politics says Europe at the Abyss
Read full article... Read full article...It has come to this. A year after rescuing Greece from default, Europe is staring into the abyss. The bailout has proved insufficient. Greece needs more money, and it can't borrow from private markets where it faces interest rates as high as 25 percent. There is no easy escape.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Fiat Currency Economic Death Spiral Has Been Triggered / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Gordon_T_Long
For nearly 30 years we have had two Global Strategies working in a symbiotic fashion that has created a virtuous economic growth spiral. Unfortunately, the economic underpinnings were flawed and as a consequence, the virtuous cycle has ended. It is now in the process of reversing and becoming a vicious downward economic spiral.
One of the strategies is the Asian Mercantile Strategy. The other is the US Dollar Reserve Currency Strategy.
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Saturday, May 28, 2011
UK Inflation Invisible to Government Politicians Such as Vince Cable / Economics / Inflation
By: Adrian_Ash
Where-oh-where can all this inflation – which doesn't exist – be coming from...?
THERE'S NONE so blind as those who claim they can see.
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Thursday, May 26, 2011
U.S. Q1 2011 GDP Revision / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Tony_Pallotta
The first of two revisions for Q1 2011 Real GDP came in unchanged at 1.8%. Internally though this report is rather concerning.
In a previous post I discussed the increased probability of Q2 GDP contracting (found here) with inventory, government and or trade the most likely sources.
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Thursday, May 26, 2011
The American Manufacturing Crisis and Why it Matters / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_Fletcher
Despite the denial chorus of the same politicians, financiers, and economists who told us prior to 2008 that our financial sector was fine, the American public is increasingly aware of the truth: American manufacturing is in a state of deep crisis. (And ,as I argued in a previous article, the recent small uptick in this sector doesn’t change that fact.)Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Hyperinflation Nonsense Continues / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Every time the US dollar ticks lower, commodity prices tick higher, or the CPI rises two tenths of a percent, hyperinflationists come out of the woodwork with nonsensical predictions and silly comparisons to Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany.
Given that the US dollar recently fell to the lower end of its trading range, hyperinflationists once again came forth with their message of impending doom.
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Greece Economy Structural Problems Compared to US / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Many countries have restrictions and requirements on doctors, nurses, lawyers etc. Greece carries the idea to extreme.
According to Keep Talking Greece "closed professions" include beauticians, drama and dance school instructors, bakers, antiques dealers, insurance agents, insurance consultants, employment consultants, diagnostics centre staff, translators, divers, cameramen, driving school instructors, cab drivers, tourist bus drivers, newspaper stand owners, electricians, sound technicians, private school owners, tobacco sellers, gun manufacturers and sellers, hairdressers, private investigators, port workers, real estate agents, lifeguards, carpenters, financiers, opticians, auditors, movie/theatre director and even car mechanics.
Monday, May 23, 2011
U.S. Economic Recovery Faces More Speed Bumps / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Of all the economic news last week, the fall in unemployment claims had the most positive impact. It's great to see them come down, and my work suggests that May is on track for a 275,000 gain in payrolls, which is well above current consensus.
Claims fell by 29,000 to 409,000 last week, the second improvement in a row after a couple of sad-sack weeks that were muddied by special events like a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and the layoffs resulting from the parts shortage in Japan.
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Monday, May 23, 2011
Is the U.S. Economic Growth Spurt Over? / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
As you know, we’ve been wondering about the exhaustion of the Industrial Revolution innovation…and the bankruptcy of the Social Welfare state as a result.
We take for granted that a healthy economy “grows.” Our governments depend on it to pay the bills. Our investments depend on it too; we buy investments that we hope will become more valuable as sales and profits grow along with the economy. But what if all of our assumptions about what is “normal” are wrong? What if the growth spurt we have known for the last 300 years was the exception, not the rule? And what if it were now coming to an end?
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Friday, May 20, 2011
QE End, Training Wheels Off, Crash Helmets On / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
Based on many pronouncements by economic policy makers, reams of articles by the top financial journalists and near continuous discussion on the financial news channels, it appears that the quantitative easing juggernaut that has steamed the high seas of macroeconomics for the last three years is finally pulling into port...supposedly for the last time. According to the dominant narrative, QEI and QEII helped stabilize the economy during the Great Recession and now the Federal Reserve is ready to take the training wheels off. If so, the economy may need a helmet because there is virtually no chance that it can avoid major contractions without central banking support.
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Friday, May 20, 2011
How a State Light-bulb Law Could Revive the American Factory / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
South Carolina is close to pulling off a dramatic end-run around the federal government.
If that state succeeds, the end result could have a serious impact on every U.S. manufacturing industry from cars to toilets.
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Thursday, May 19, 2011
Copper is Talking, Massive Infrastructure Projects to Boost Productivity Throughout the Economy / Economics / Infrastructure
By: Richard_Mills
Pure gold deposits are increasingly difficult to find.
“What really bothers me is that in the 1980s or 1990s, we saw three to five discoveries of 5 to 20 million ounces each, and upwards of 30 to 50 million ounces a year. That is what makes or breaks the industry. There are no discoveries of that magnitude now.” Pierre Lassonde, veteran gold analyst, co-founder/chairman of Franco Nevada Mining Corp., former president of Newmont Mining Corp.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
The Coming Great Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_J_Kosares
The table displayed immediately below is likely to surprise even our most-jaded readers. It shows the astronomical increase in cash prices for well-known food commodities over the past 12 months. With inarguable exactness, it contradicts the nearly constant prattle in the mainstream press that inflation is under control, or that it is peaking and likely to come under control sometime soon. Some items on the list have doubled -- even tripled -- in price over the past year. Others have risen at mere double-digit rates.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
U.S. Industrial Production Held Back Partly Related to Natural Disaster in Japan / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Industrial production held steady in April after a 0.7% in March. The 1.7% jump in utilities production and 0.8% increase in mining output offset the 0.4% decline in factory production. The 8.9% decline in auto output was the major reason for the flat headline. Excluding motor vehicle output, factory production rose 0.2% in April after a 0.3% gain in the prior month.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
U.S. Consumers Continue to Struggle as Inflation Accelerates / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
The accelerating U.S. inflation rate reached its fastest pace in two and a half years last month as consumers continue dealing with higher food and energy prices.
The consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 3.2% over the last 12 months, the biggest yearly jump since October 2008. That's up from a yearly jump of 2.7% in March and 2.1% in February. The CPI in April increased 0.4% from the previous month.
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Tuesday, May 17, 2011
U.S. Inflation Data: Actual vs. Fed’s Forecast / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
April inflation data point to an upward trend of both the all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy (see Chart 1). The data suggest that in as much as the Fed views the recent gains in energy and other commodity prices as "transitory," the level of concern could change fast if the economy gathers steam. In the three-months ended April 2011, the core CPI has risen at an annual rate of 6.2%.