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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, April 09, 2011

America's Inflationary Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

We see signs that American workers are getting worn out. Management may have squeezed the last drops of extra work that they can out of them.  That has been reflected in the latest worker productivity. Since WWII the average increase has been 2-1/2% year after year, but last week’s numbers were terrible, up only 0.2% per year. Europe and the US have been able in part to offset advantages of foreign producers by consistently getting better productivity results. For those of you that are new to these statistics, they are a reflection of labor productivity, or advances in the way work is done. Such previous success have allowed companies to get the job done with fewer employees and in instances to offshore some work to take advantage of cheap foreign labor. If you use a combination of labor and investment funds, recent results are only up 0.1% for 2009. Those numbers are usually about half of regular productivity numbers. What low overall numbers mean is that throwing money at manufacturing problems is not working as well as it has in the past.

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Economics

Saturday, April 09, 2011

Near-term Economic Outlook For A Troubled World / Economics / Global Economy

By: Victoria_Marklew

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAn article by Victoria Marklew, Richard Thies and James A. Pressler

Although 2011 is only three months old, the world has changed dramatically. Along with the evolving European debt crisis, seemingly -isolated Tunisian protests grew to varying levels of upheaval throughout the Arab world, and an historic earthquake and subsequent tsunami have left Japan's outlook under a cloud of uncertainty. Each of these situations is significant in its scope and magnitude, but by focusing on just the key elements, the main risks can be appreciated.

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Economics

Saturday, April 09, 2011

Economists Shocked By Are We Really Losing Jobs to China! / Economics / Employment

By: Ian_Fletcher

There’s a nice new academic paper just out by an MIT economist and his friends that gives some hard data to back up everyone’s suspicion that the U.S. is losing jobs to China. It’s entitled “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States,” by David Autor, and you can download it here if you’re curious.

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Economics

Saturday, April 09, 2011

U.S. Consumer Price Index, Medical Care Costs, and the Paul Ryan Medicare Proposal / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Historical trends of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the medical care components in the CPI are useful to assess some aspects of the Medicare proposal in the Paul Ryan budget.  In the past 20 years, the medical care component of CPI has consistently risen faster than the CPI, with the exception of 2008 (see Chart 1).  

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Economics

Friday, April 08, 2011

The Free Trade Theory That’s Killing America’s Economy, Why It’s Wrong / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI wrote in a previous article how America’s disastrous embrace of free trade is ultimately based on a false theory of how the global economy works: the so-called Theory of Comparative Advantage. This is what economists, from the government on down, believe in. This matters.

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Economics

Friday, April 08, 2011

U.S. Jobless Downtrend Remains in Place / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInitial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 382,000 during the week ended April 2, which puts the 4-week moving average at 389,500.  Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless fell 9,000 to 3.723 million.  The good news is that the downward trend of jobless claims is maintained.  The number of claimants under the special programs fell for the week ended March 19 declined roughly 90,000.  Going forward a larger drop would be necessary to be consistent with the strength seen in private sector payrolls in February and March. 

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Economics

Thursday, April 07, 2011

U.S. Colombia Trade Deal to Strengthen Economic Ties with Latin America / Economics / Global Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: The United States has resolved labor issues with Colombia, paving the way for approval of a stalled free-trade agreement (FTA) and strengthening economic ties between the countries.

The United States and Colombia were expected to announce the agreement this week after months of talks, people familiar with the matter said Tuesday.

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Economics

Thursday, April 07, 2011

U.S. Economic Depression Statistics / Economics / Great Depression II

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic Collapse writes: If you know someone that believes that the U.S. economy is in great shape, just show that person the following statistics. But please don't show these statistics to anyone that is feeling depressed or that has just lost a job – it might push such a person over the edge. The sad truth is that the U.S. economy is in the midst of a long-term decline and it is coming apart at the seams. Right now the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve are attempting to "paper over" our economic problems with massive amounts of government debt and paper currency, but in the end it is not going to work. When you analyze the numbers objectively, it leads to the inescapable conclusion that we are headed for another Great Depression. That is a very depressing thought, but there is no denying that decades of debt and incredibly bad decisions are starting to catch up with us. The economic pain that is coming is going to be absolutely mind blowing.

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Economics

Thursday, April 07, 2011

The Free Trade Theory of Comparative Advantage / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ian_Fletcher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYou can read about the free trade controversy for months and never hear about it. But in the minds of real economists, it’s there all the time, and it’s big. I’m talking about the so-called theory of comparative advantage, the theoretical lynchpin—in the view of free traders and protectionists alike—of the case for free trade. It has an unfortunate reputation for being too technically tricky for non-economists to understand, but I think this is a shame, because this myth tends to shut ordinary concerned citizens out of the debate. Therefore, I’d like to take a shot at explaining this theory.

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Economics

Thursday, April 07, 2011

U.S. Federal Budget, a Rerun of 1994-95 Episode or More? / Economics / Government Spending

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe continuing resolution, a temporary arrangement that is currently financing the operations of the federal government, expires on April 8, 2011.  A federal government shutdown follows if Congress fails to authorize appropriations prior to this date.  It is widely expected that a breakthrough in budget talks will take place prior to the deadline.  However, there is uncertainty about whether a compromise will be reached at the appropriate time. 

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Economics

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

Deflationists Blind to the Inflation Storm / Economics / Inflation

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy forecast has been for a powerful Inflationary Recession to occur, a consistently laid out analysis, delivered during the last year or more in clear terms. That has been my call, and continues to be my call. The Deflationist camp is making more noises. They do not know their limitations, which are obstructed by a blind eye toward the monetary inflation. They do not understand it, so they ignore it, and attempt to encapsulate it into a convenient bottle set aside on the margin. Gonzalo Lira will be proved wrong about price inflation showing on the official Consumer Price Inflation index. So what? The prevailing price inflation will ramp past 12% easily as he also predicts. His style is wonderful, even if a mirror is a fixture at his desk. His details in argument are strong and cogent. An anger meter is a fixture at my desk.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

When Iceland Totally Froze / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: David_Howden

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFollowing the bankruptcy of the American investment bank Lehman Brothers in late 2008, credit markets all over the world seized up in a striking manifestation of the interconnectivity of the global economy. When the dust had settled, the crisis had wiped out trillions of dollars of investments, and the previously well-functioning credit markets had stalled. The most spectacular bankruptcy of the 2008 financial crisis was the collapse of Iceland's financial system. This collapse is especially intriguing as Iceland is not an underdeveloped country (it ranked third in the United Nations' 2009 Human Development Index).

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Economics

Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Does a Weak U.S. Dollar Cause Inflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShould investors be concerned that a weaker U.S. dollar causes inflation? The price at the gas pump should be a stark reminder that a weaker dollar may contribute to higher prices. Yet, economists tell us that food and energy inflation does not count. Why do economists have such a baffling sense of logic? Are economists really aliens in disguise, locked up in ivory towers? Let’s shed some light on the logic and why it may not merely be strange, but wrong.

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Economics

Monday, April 04, 2011

Fed Core Inflation Incompetence / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

For years the Federal Reserve has told us that in order to detect inflation in the economy it is important to separate "signal from noise" by focusing on "core" inflation statistics, which exclude changes in food and energy prices. Because food and energy figure so prominently into consumer spending, this maneuver is not without controversy. But the Fed counters the criticism by pointing to the apparent volatility of the broader "headline" inflation figure, which includes food and energy. The Fed tells us that the danger lies in making a monetary policy mistake based on unreliable statistics. Being more stable (they tell us), the core is their preferred guide. Sounds reasonable...but it isn't.

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Economics

Monday, April 04, 2011

Is Inflation Harmless or Even Good? / Economics / Inflation

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs Ron Paul's "End the Fed" movement grows, more and more Fed economists are speaking up on behalf of the central bank. In a recent post, David Andolfatto of the St. Louis Fed argues that the systematic debasement of the currency has had a negligible effect on the average American. As we'll see, Andolfatto's evidence is completely irrelevant to the question. The Fed and commercial banks have been ripping off everyone who uses dollars.

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Economics

Saturday, April 02, 2011

Jobless Economic Recovery, Drowning in Debt, Austerity Suffering Working Class / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: John_Mauldin

  • Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCan You Say Jobless Recovery?
  • Drowning in Debt but Getting No Growth
  • The Cancer of Debt

Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the Muddle Through Middle with you!
–With thanks to Stealers Wheel

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Economics

Saturday, April 02, 2011

U.S. March Employment Situation, Fed Remains on Track to Complete QE2 / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMarch Employment Situation – Although Private Sector Payroll Growth is Impressive, Fed is on Track to Complete QE
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.8% in March vs. 8.9% in February. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009.

Payroll Employment: +216,000 in March vs. +194,000 in February. Private sector jobs increased 230,000 after a gain of 240,000 in February. Revisions for January and Februay resulted in a net gain of 7,000 jobs in the economy.

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Economics

Saturday, April 02, 2011

How The Foreign Laundromat Trashed the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI was looking at Vietnam recently. Apparently the streets are paved with gold and so I’m going over next week to check that out, but I’m getting more confused by the minute.

On one hand (supposedly) FDI is pouring into Vietnam, on the other hand, you read in the Financial Times that the Vietnamese are sending their gold jewellery to Switzerland to be melted down and turned into ingots to be stored in a vault (outside Vietnam). Or converted into a “hard” currency…although there again, there is a bit of a debate going on these days about where you might find one of those?

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Economics

Friday, April 01, 2011

What's a Job Good For? / Economics / Employment

By: Jeffrey_A_Tucker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMost people say that a job is good for making money. So, if you don't need money, what's the point? The fabled English aristocratic class of the late 19th and early 20th century apparently thought that way, if the caricatures painted by Jeeves and Wooster, Brideshead, and the like have any truth to them. Their main job was getting dressed and undressed. It seems like young Americans are thinking the same way.

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Economics

Friday, April 01, 2011

China's Highway System Growth Paves the Way to a Stronger Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKerri Shannon writes: What some have called "the worst traffic jam in human history" happened on the Beijing-Tibet Highway in August 2010. It trapped some drivers for more than 20 days and stretched more than 60 miles (97 kilometers).

The mess was so severe that local residents turned into vendors and profited from selling water, noodles and nuts to stalled travelers.

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