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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

U.S. Mortgage Bonds Crash to New Low / Economics / Subprime Mortgage Risks

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg is reporting Non-Agency Mortgage Bonds Fall Amid Selling Concern .
Subprime, Alt-A and prime-jumbo mortgage securities reached or approached record lows this month as forced asset sales contributed to the decline in values.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Deteriorating Economic Outlook for Germany and Euro-zone / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Victoria_Marklew

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week's PMI surveys for the Euro-zone and for its various countries warned that the outlook for Q4 is deteriorating sharply. To date, the strongest of the major Euro-zone economies clearly has been Germany, which may actually escape a technical recession if consumer demand keeps Q3 real GDP growth in positive territory.

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Economics

Monday, October 27, 2008

Gordon Brown Spending His Way out of Economic Contraction into Stagflation / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFriday's announcement of surprisingly high 0.5% GDP contraction well above the forecasts of 0.2% and the Market Oracle forecast of 0.3%, confirmed that the UK economy is heading for a deep recession which looks set to beat the 1990's recession that saw a 2.5% contraction in GDP from peak to trough.

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Economics

Monday, October 27, 2008

Economists are Still Getting it Wrong on the Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe recession is deepening and our economic commentariat still cannot get it right. Access Economics economist Chris Richardson is a classic. He figures governments and central banks "just don't have the dollars" to turn things around. The one thing governments and central banks are never short of is money. They can create as much money as they like. Only the threat of an outbreak of massive inflation stops them. In any event, the problem is not one of insufficient funds. Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, October 27, 2008

Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 27-31) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very light week of rhetoric and economic releases. Monday, will see the publication of the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, Thursday the weekly jobless claims data and the week will conclude with the publication of the September existing home sales.

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Economics

Monday, October 27, 2008

Economic Data and Corporate Earnings Signaling Global Recession? / Economics / Corporate Earnings

By: Money_Morning

William Patalon III writes: It's beginning to sound like a broken record.  In a nutshell, we already know that the economic data should be weak. We already know that the earnings reports should be disappointing. And because we already know all this, the information should be built into stock prices. The earnings releases should be soft. That much should already be known – and built into the markets.

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Economics

Monday, October 27, 2008

United States Heading for Nasty Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBill King (The King Report): Adjusted monetary base surging
“The following chart of the Adjusted Monetary Base, as calculated by the St. Louis Fed, needs no commentary. But we must note that it is growing at a 341% annualized rate (of 4-week average). This is beyond 3rd world pumping! Yesterday in testimony before Congress about the financial crisis, Easy Al reluctantly gave a qualified confession about his role in the mess when he said he was ‘partially' wrong on derivative regulation. But Easy Al tried to direct blame at Wall Street.”

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Economics

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Contraction of the Whole Financial and Economic System / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"The great inter-war slumps were not acts of God or of blind forces. They were the sure and certain result of the concentration of too much economic power in the hands of too few men (who) felt no responsibility to the nation." From the 1945 UK Labour manifesto Let Us Face The Future

There are signs that the credit crunch is easing. Interbank lending in dollars has fallen for a ninth straight day. The various indicators of stress in the market--Libor, the TED spread, and the Libor-OIS spread--are all gradually returning to normal, but the damage to the broader economy has been substantial.

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Economics

Friday, October 24, 2008

Financial Crisis Turning Into an Economic Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Christopher_Laird

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith all of the chaos in financial markets, and also commodities, how are the USD and the Euro affected and also the precious metals?

Well, first of all, we need the proper context of this world market situation. We are in the middle of a super world crash. These take a year to get into full swing. They develop over time. Minding that, realize that we may not see the worst for another year for the world stock markets. We are in the midst of a crash.

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Economics

Friday, October 24, 2008

Upping the Economic Stimulus Dosage / Economics / US Economy

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInsanity is often defined as repeating the same action while expecting a different result. Recent Congressional activity to push through this year's second economic “stimulus” package certainly indicates that many of our political leaders may have special needs.

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Economics

Friday, October 24, 2008

U.S. Unfunded Debt Liabilities- The Greatest Deficit of All / Economics / US Debt

By: Doug_Wakefield

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe following is an interview transcript from institutional money manager Tom Cammack conducted by Doug Wakefield, President of Best Minds Inc., on October 6th , 2008 . The opinions shared in this interview may or may not be the same as those of Best Minds Inc .

“We must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy [thrift] and liberty or profusion [abundance] and servitude .

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Economics

Friday, October 24, 2008

Mesa City Arizona Facing Huge Budget Crisis / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

AZCentral is reporting Mesa facing huge budget crisis .
Mesa is bracing for what could be the worst budget crisis in city history.

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Economics

Friday, October 24, 2008

FTSE Crash as UK Economy Contracts by GDP 0.5% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The FTSE 100 Index crashed on the worse than expected UK Q3 GDP data that came in at minus 0.5%, the consensus forecast was for 0.2% and the Market Oracle forecast was for a 0.3% contraction of Gross Domestic Product.

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Economics

Friday, October 24, 2008

U.S. Jobs Losses Mount As Recession Deepens / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRegardless of how much money Paulson and Bernanke waste on bailouts, this economy simply is not going to recover with the unemployment picture looking as bleak as it does. Let's start off with a look at initial claims then some announcements from today about layoffs.

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Economics

Thursday, October 23, 2008

UK Economic Crash Follows Housing, Stocks and Sterling Over the Cliff / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFriday's long awaited GDP figures are expected to show an estimated GDP contraction of 0.3% for the quarter ending 30th Sept 2008. This follows the official data of zero growth for the 2nd quarter and will officially bring to an end Gordon Brown's near repetitive day in day out mantra chanted at the despatch box in his role as the chancellor of the exchequer for 9 years of having ended the boom and bust cycle. In actual fact all Gordon Brown had succeeded in delivering was a greater boom to be followed by an even more devastating bust. The key point to watch for on Friday is will a revision lower of quarter 2 GDP growth push the UK into a technical recession on the basis of 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Using Leading Economic Indicators to Forecast Economic Recessions / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn a year-over-year basis, the quarterly average of the index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) began contracting in the first quarter of 2007. With the exception of the third quarter of 2007, the quarterly average of the LEI has continued to contract. We alerted our readers that multiple consecutive quarters of year-over-year contractions in the LEI usually were the harbinger of recessions. We had ignored the history of the LEI's recession-predictive powers in the past and were determined not to repeat that mistake.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Chinese Perspective on the Global Economic Recession / Economics / China Economy

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTony Sagami writes: You've probably never heard of the Canton Fair, but it is the largest trade fair in the world, where thousands of manufacturers, businessmen, and merchants gather to conduct business.

The Canton Fair is co-hosted by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China and the People's Government of Guangdong Province, and organized by the China Foreign Trade Centre.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Economic Recession Forecasting "V" or "U" Shaped? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYears ago there was an equity strategist at Bache-Halsey (I said it was years ago) who almost always got it wrong. When he finally was forced to leave "to pursue other interests," clients were furious. The guy was a near-perfect negative indicator. When he said buy, it usually paid off to sell.

You know where this is going. A certain "economist" is forecasting a "V"-shaped economic and stock-market recovery based on a forecast of a "V"-shaped recovery in monetary velocity.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Looming Recession Could have been a Lot Worse / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: The U.S. economy is entering a recession. With each day that passes and each indicator we see, that eventuality becomes more and more clear.

Even so, we can take some real comfort in knowing that we're likely going to avoid the “bottomless pit” of a Great Depression II. A substantial recession with accompanying inflation – roughly along the lines of the downturns of 1974 and 1980-82 – seems the most likely scenario we face.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Fed Attempting To Prevent "Great Depression II" / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBernanke and the Fed have to be miffed over their lack of traction in addressing the credit bubble.

Of course if Bernanke understood simple economics as explained in Impossible To Get Something For Nothing , he would not be doing the silly things he is doing such as running out of letters in his alphabet soup of lending facilities.

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