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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, October 16, 2014

The Inflation Imputation, Dear Saver, May You RIP / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

A note has been circulating among economists, calling into question the wisdom of another group of economists who wrote an open letter to the Federal Reserve a few years ago suggesting that one of the risks of their quantitative easing program was increased inflation. Since we have not seen CPI inflation, this latter group is calling upon the former to admit they were wrong, that quantitative easing does not in fact cause inflation. To no one’s surprise, Paul Krugman has written rather nastily and arrogantly about the lack of CPI inflation.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Governments Need Inflation, Economies Don't / Economics / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

In an article in the UK's Telegraph on October 10, veteran economic correspondent Ambrose Evans-Pritchard laid bare the essential truth of the nearly universal current embrace of inflation as an economic panacea. While politicians, CEOs and economists talk about demand stimulus and the avoidance of a deflationary trap, Evans-Pritchard reminds us that inflation is all, and always, about debt management.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Is the Surge in Capital Goods Orders Due to Malinvestment? / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

Orders for US non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose by 0.6 percent in August after a 0.2 percent decline in July to stand at $73.2 billion. Observe that after closing at $48 billion in May 2009, capital goods orders have been trending up.

Most commentators regard this strengthening as evidence that companies are investing both in the replacement of existing capital goods and in new capital goods in order to expand their growth.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Price Deflation and Price Inflation Are Always “Optimal” / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Mateusz Machaj writes: Recently, the Polish economy experienced its first price deflation since the 1980s, which sparked in the country deflationphobia (or, as Mark Thornton calls it, apoplithorismosphobia).

Media sources and many economists focus on price inflation and price deflation as the source of various economic ills, but, contrary to much of the rhetoric, price inflation and price deflation are always “optimal” in the economic sense. At first, such a claim may seem controversial, since virtually all economists have something negative to say about either inflation or deflation. This concerns almost all schools of economic thought, mainstream and heterodox, including the Austrians.

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Economics

Monday, October 13, 2014

When The Economy Went Ponzi / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

Adam Smith and the Ponzi Economy
Like the archetypal images of love that were handed down by early Greek philosophers, of Erotic love, Parental love, and what later became Christian or Dutiful love towards fellow persons and living things of all kinds, the supposed “classic image” of the economy is the “Wealth of Nations”. Taken by the “Neolibs” of the 1980s and their surviving throw-offs as a timeless ode to invisible but all-powerful “market forces”, this classic model was handed down by their guru – Adam Smith.

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Economics

Saturday, October 11, 2014

U.S. 5.5% Unemployment Rate Represents Full Employment / Economics / Unemployment

By: EconMatters

3-5 Months Ahead of Fed Forecasts for Employment Levels

What has sort of gone under the radar recently with Ebola fear mongering, Europe throwing a tizzy fit until they get their ‘stimulus fix’ and everything is miraculously all well again, profit taking in front of earning`s season here in the US, and oil on one of its customary $20 trading range moves to the downside is that last Friday the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% due to another robust employment report and several upward revisions to prior month`s reports. Yes we are in the 5`s for unemployment, well ahead of everyone`s forecasts including the Federal Reserve.

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Economics

Thursday, October 09, 2014

It’s Inflation All the Way, Baby! / Economics / Inflation

By: Gary_Tanashian

The title’s quote is one of many eminently quotable messages I had the pleasure of receiving over a few years of contact with a late, great and a very interesting man* named Jonathan Auerbach, who headed a unique specialty (emerging and frontier markets) brokerage in NYC called Auerbach Grayson.

Jon was an honest and ethical man.  He was also a gold bug (in that descriptor’s highest form) who innately understood the Kabuki Dance that has been ongoing by monetary authorities since the ‘Age of Inflation onDemand‘ (what guest poster Bruno de Landevoisin calls the Monetized New Millenium) started its most intense and bald faced phase in 2000.

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Economics

Thursday, October 09, 2014

The Truth About Economic Boom And Bust Cycles - Video / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Submissions

Claudio Grass writes: Most believe that expansionary monetary policy helps ease crises. Austrian School economists argue that central banks don't help in smoothing the amplitude of the cycles, but rather are the cause of cycles. In this microdocumentary video, we look back at four major busts in the last 100 years and explain how central banks created them. We also clarify why we believe the next bust is just around the corner. This video will not explain the mainstream view, but rather the view of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT).

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Economics

Thursday, October 09, 2014

Youth Unemployment - The Disgrace of Sacrificing a Generation / Economics / Unemployment

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Would you like to know how bankrupt our societies are? Financially AND morally? Before you say yes, please do acknowledge that you too ar eparty to the bankruptcy. Even if you have means, or you have no debt, or you’re under 25, you’re still letting it happen. And you may have tons of reasons or excuses for that, but you’re still letting it happen.

Our financial and moral bankruptcy shows – arguably – nowhere better than in the way we treat our children. A favorite theme of mine is that any parent you ask will swear to God and cross and hope to die that they love their kids to death, but the facts say otherwise. We only love them as far as the tips of our noses, or as far as the curb. That means you too.

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Economics

Thursday, October 09, 2014

Europe’s Economic Austerity, You Must Be Kidding / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The leading political lights in Europe -- Messrs. Hollande, Valls and Macron in France and Mr. Renzi in Italy -- are raising a big stink about fiscal austerity. They don't like it. And now Greece has jumped on the anti-austerity bandwagon. The pols have plenty of company, too. Yes, they can trot out a host of economists -- from Nobelist Krugman on down -- to carry their water.

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Economics

Wednesday, October 08, 2014

The European Financial Crisis Is Going Global – and We're Along for the Ride / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: After printing $4 trillion since 2008, we've little to show for it.

Endless debates about the effectiveness of QE, or its lack thereof, haven't spawned better decisions, especially in Europe. Think periphery nations like Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy.

Better yet, take a look at the stock market, where worries about Europe's economy rattled investors. It's certainly not a pretty picture...

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Economics

Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Germany’s Bad Economic Numbers Are Great News For All Of Us / Economics / Germany

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Something’s happening in Europe that I would like to cheer and encourage at the top of my lungs. While only yesterday, most European leaders, the ECB and the IMF were busy chiding Germany for not lowering taxes or increasing government investment in its economy, today’s release of German economic data should either shut them up or drastically change their tune.

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Economics

Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Inflation is Not the Only Way Easy Money Destroys Wealth / Economics / Inflation

By: Frank_Shostak

The US Federal Reserve can keep stimulating the US economy because inflation is posing little threat, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Kocherlakota said. “I am expecting an inflation rate to run below two percent for the next four years, through 2018,” he said. “That means there is more room for monetary policy to be helpful in terms of … boosting demand without running up against generating too much inflation.”

The yearly rate of growth of the official consumer price index (CPI) stood at 1.7 percent in August against two percent in July. According to our estimate, the yearly rate of growth of the CPI could close at 1.4 percent by December. By December next year we forecast the yearly rate of growth of 0.6 percent.

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Economics

Sunday, October 05, 2014

Grandma Yellen And The Economic Mushroom Cloud On The Horizon / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Caldaro

Weekend. Saturday. Beautiful Indian summer imitation where I’m presently located in western Europe. Good time to start out with an empty sheet of text file (for lack of a better term), and stream some consciousness.

Most people must have figured out that things in the economic sphere haven’t gotten any quieter lately. That’s at least something. Stock exchanges in the developed world jumped from a -1%+ loss one day to a 1%+ gain the next. Volatility, nerves, and probably ritalin, have returned. You have to wonder what that means in markets reigned supreme by high-frequency robot traders and central banks, but nevertheless, the public perception remains. And perception is key.

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Economics

Thursday, October 02, 2014

Lagarde Admits Europe Facing Serious Crisis on the Horizon / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Bloomberg

In an interview with Bloomberg's Tom Keene at the International Monetary Fund's Headquarters in Washington D.C., IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the world still faces serious clouds on the horizon., "We are facing serious clouds on the horizon; we have a lot of uncertainty...we are revising potential growth." Lagarde also said:

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Economics

Thursday, October 02, 2014

Europe Is Crumbling Into Economic Collapse / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Raul_I_Meijer

For me, the quote of the day is this one: “If there’s a periphery of the eurozone’s periphery, that’s Naples.”. The city of Napoli hosts ECB boss Mario Draghi and the heads of Europe’s central banks this week in some very posh former Bourbon family royal palace, and the contradictions involved couldn’t be more striking.

Napoli is home to an immense amount of poverty and misery, and the advent of the EU and the euro has done absolutely nothing to make life in the city any better. Quite the contrary. And there’s not a single thing in sight that holds any promise of alleviating the deepening Italian downfall. Therefore things can, and will, only get worse from here.

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Economics

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Europe Teetering the Ddge of a "Japan-style" Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

The Continent is now teetering on the edge of a "Japan-style" deflation. Here's our take on it.

It's happened. The one economic comparison Europe has dreaded more than any other; the name that's akin to Lord Voldemort for investors has been uttered: "deflation."

And it's not just "deflation." You can still spin that term in a positive light if you get creative enough. Say, for example,

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Economics

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Economists Economic Atonement / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Peter_Schiff

This Friday is Yom Kippur, the day when Jews around the world ask forgiveness for their transgressions from the year past. Rabbis remind the penitent to dwell on their sins of omission, in which they did nothing when a more thoughtful and proactive action was needed, and sins of commission, in which they actively participated in an unjust action. And while not all economists are Jewish, Gene Epstein the economics editor at Barron's, offered his thoughts on how this applies to the group.

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Economics

Monday, September 29, 2014

The Japanese Deflation Myth and the Yen’s Slump / Economics / Japan Economy

By: MISES

Brendan Brown writes: The slide of the yen since late summer has brought it to a level some 40 percent lower against the euro and US dollar than just two years go. Yet still Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda warn that they have not won the battle against deflation. That caution is absurd — all the more so in view of the fact that there was no deflation in the first place.

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Economics

Friday, September 26, 2014

Where’s the Economic Growth? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

In 1633 Galileo Galilei, then an old man, was tried and convicted by the Catholic Church of the heresy of believing that the earth revolved around the sun. He recanted and was forced into house arrest for the rest of his life, until 1642. Yet “The moment he [Galileo] was set at liberty, he looked up to the sky and down to the ground, and, stamping with his foot, in a contemplative mood, said, Eppur si muove, that is, still it moves, meaning the earth” (Giuseppe Baretti in his book the The Italian Library, written in 1757).

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