Friday, August 21, 2015

Global Stock Markets - Why it's Worse than October 2014 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Fed funds futures are coming around to the idea of no September rate hike, a position we long held since last December based on the argument that inflation in 2015 will move further below the Fed's mandate, to the extent that the tightening in labour markets is inadequate to stir up inflationary pressures.

Friday, August 21, 2015

China Weakens the Yuan; Rattles Global Stock and Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Gary_Dorsch

On August 11th, the hierarchy of the Chinese Politburo surprised the global financial markets, by unilaterally devaluing the yuan against the US$, without any advance notice. Beijing quickly engineered a -3% devaluation of the yuan against the US$ in two days, in what it called a "one-off" operation. Still, the surprise move sent various financial markets around the world into a tizzy, as analysts, pundits and traders began to speculate that the latest move by Beijing was just the first salvo in a campaign to gradually weaken the yuan against the US$, and possibly, to keep the yuan on an even keel with other major reserve currencies, such as the Euro and the Japanese yen.

Friday, August 21, 2015

Stock Market - Fasten Your Seat Belt! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Puru_Saxena

It is official; the multi-month trading range on Wall Street has now ended with a breakout to the downside.  You will recall that the major US indices were in a quiet, consolidation phase since December and over the past several weeks, we wrote extensively about the deterioration in the stock market’s internals. 

In fact, about a month ago, our proprietary set of trend following indicators flashed ‘market under distribution’ which prompted us to reduce our equity exposure and partially hedge our book. Unfortunately, over the past few trading sessions, these set of indicators have deteriorated even more and there is now a high probability of an autumn plunge.  Accordingly, we have reduced our equity exposure even more and currently, only half of the capital under our management is invested in common stocks. 

Friday, August 21, 2015

US BreakEven Inflation at 5-Year Lows / Economics / Inflation

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Neither higher than expected Philly Fed survey at 8.3 in August nor a dovish set of FOMC minutes has managed to ease the onslaught of selling in global equities. The old trick that a dovish Fed and poor data are good for stocks is no longer valid. An uncertain Fed drove down chances of a Sept Fed hike to 36% from close to 50% earlier in the week. Meanhwile, stock indices deepen their selloffs well after a series of DeathCrosses emerged in the S&P500, Dow-30, Dax-30, FTSE-100 and Shanghai Composite. which may suggest that they require the Fed to firmly shut the door on any 2015 rate cut.

Friday, August 21, 2015

The Oil Bubble...Which Just Bust...Was Caused by Derivatives: That’s why Shale Oil is finished / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: Andrew_Butter

There are plenty of reasons put-forward for why oil prices more than halved over the past year. But no one’s talking about a bubble that bust; seems like the world is wallowing in denial. Likely because if indeed it was a bubble (that just bust), it’s going to be a LONG TIME before anyone sees $100 again, and just about everybody has exposure to that scenario.

”I Blame it on the Saudi’s...BOMB THEM” says Donald Trump, well actually he didn’t say that; but that’s the sort of stupid remark you’d expect from a Republican Party Presidential front-runner.

Friday, August 21, 2015

Global Stocks Slide, Markets are Moving! Want to Get Onboard? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

"When the alarm goes off and the dreamers awake, it will be pandemonium in the stock market." -- Bob Prechter, from the just-released Elliott Wave Theorist.

You would agree that markets around the world have served investors a lot of surprises lately:

Friday, August 21, 2015

The Future of Natural Gas, Part II / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Dr. Kent Moors writes: As I discussed in the last edition of Oil & Energy Investor, this morning I made the keynote address at the Dominion Transport-hosted meeting of natural gas executives in western Pennsylvania.

My address comprised my primary take on natural gas prospects and is entitled “Natural Gas Moving Forward: LNG, Hubs, and Pricing Prospects.”

As always, I try to keep you in the loop of what’s happening when I meet with the movers and shakers, so today I’ll be sharing the rest of my address with you.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

The Fed Talks And The Market Tanks. That’s Different / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Rubino

Normally there’s a distinct pattern to the impact of Federal Reserve statements on the financial markets. The tone of equities trading in particular starts to improve as the moment of the announcement approaches; the words turn out to be blandly positive, full of promises of easy money and upbeat forecasts; and share prices soar for a day or two. It’s been thus for most of the past six years, leading large numbers of new investors and recently-minted analysts and traders to see the Fed as a modern version of Plato’s philosopher king, wielding absolute power to achieve perfect justice in the form of rising asset prices.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Shorting Stocks - Revenge Is a Dish Best Served Cold / Companies / Investing 2015

By: John_Mauldin

Back when I was fifteen and in gifted and talented camp, I found myself on the wrong side of Rick. Funny thing about gifted and talented camps—by process of elimination, eventually you will find the least gifted guy there, and that might have been him.

Rick was fond of wearing Umbro shorts with boxers hanging out of the bottom, and carrying a lacrosse stick pretty much wherever he went. Every time I saw him, I had this mental image of Moe, the bully from Calvin and Hobbes. I half expected him to call me “Twinky.”

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Trumping the Federal Debt Without Playing the Default Card / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Ellen_Brown

"The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default."—Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on Meet the Press, August 2011

In a post on "Sovereign Man" dated August 14th, Simon Black argued that Donald Trump may be the right man for the presidency:

[T]here's one thing that really sets him apart, that, in my opinion, makes him the most qualified person for the job:

Thursday, August 20, 2015

SPX Stock Index Breaking Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX broke below its prior low at 2052.09. There may not be much of a bounce this time since this appears to be a third wave scenario.

ZeroHedge comments, “Small Caps hitting 6 month lows, S&P swinging red year-to-date, and Dow near 7-month lows... but remember China doesn't matter and Fed is priced in...”

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Another Day Younger and Deeper in Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

My friend Neil Howe, author of Generations, The Fourth Turning, and other books and president of Saeculum Research, joins us today in Outside the Box with a succinct, eye-opening essay on generational differences in debt levels and attitudes towards debt.

I often write about the problems that come with overindebtedness, but we’re usually talking about public debt, here in the US or abroad. But personal or household debt in America is nearly as massive as government debt, as this chart shows:

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Drown Your Stock Market Sorrows With Pizza, Wings and Beer / Companies / Investing 2015

By: Investment_U

Matthew Carr writes: The markets have been wobbly. A long-boiling currency war is starting to bubble up. On top of that, China’s markets are hitting the skids as its economy slows. Japan’s economy is sputtering, too. And Greece is a toxin.

The S&P 500 topped the 2,100 mark for the first time on February 17. Here we are six months later... still hovering at that level.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

The Ultimate Insurance Against Financial Disaster / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: DailyWealth

By Brian Hunt: You wake up in the morning, turn on the news, and get a sick feeling in your stomach...

Thursday, August 20, 2015

The Global Economy’s Health Is Not That Complicated / Economics / Global Economy

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Federal Reserve Bank has printed trillions of dollars to monetize US government debt just to keep the government afloat.  Any significant rise in interest rates will probably decimate US government finances, the fragile housing market and in the bond market it will cause a financial catastrophe through interest rate derivatives.

This is a solid reason why the Fed will not raise any rates in any foreseeable future.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Silver – More Evidence of a Price Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Silver prices hit a low of about $14.33 on July 24 after High Frequency Traders had run stops that week.  It has happened before and will again.  Occasionally they will run stops going up, not down.  The gold to silver ratio has been hovering around 75.

That ratio has a long history of volatility.  The ratio is high when silver prices are low and as silver prices push higher, the ratio drops.  Note the graph of the gold to silver ratio using weekly data for ten years.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Precious Metals Microcosm Expanding / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

NFTRH 353 introduced the idea of a Macrocosm, a planetary representation of elements that need to come into place for a real investment stance on the gold stock sector (as opposed to the imagined elements cooked up by perma-bulls over the last few years).  The Macrocosm idea came to me when the gold sector was acting firmly counter-cyclical on a day that most other markets were suffering.  Then it happened again.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Inflation - Don’t Be Fooled By Our Current Price Stability / Economics / Inflation

By: Frank_Shostak

The yearly rate of growth of the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index adjusted for food and energy stood at 1.3 percent in June — the same figure as in May. Note that on average since the beginning of this year the yearly rate of growth stood at 1.3 percent. Many economists have expressed satisfaction that the yearly rate of growth has been stable so far notwithstanding that it stood below the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Stock Market Negative Expectations Following Yesterday's Retreat / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Two Tactics for Bigger Biotech Investing Profits / Companies / BioTech

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Ernie Tremblay writes: Over the past six months, we've seen the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index, an indicator for the entire sector, take some wild swings up and down, often by as much as 10% from week to week.

That's in stark contrast to the previous half-year, when we experienced a relatively steady upward swell.