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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Friday, February 25, 2022

Gold Stocks’ Spring Rally 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have mostly been consolidating sideways over this past half-year.  They’ve been held down by periodic bouts of heavy gold-futures dumping on Fed-tightening fears.  But as those traders exhaust their selling firepower, gold stocks have formed a strong technical base that is birthing their next major bull-market upleg.  And a stiff tailwind is mounting as gold stocks enter their strongest season of the year.

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively-steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.

This gold seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world.  Like clockwork these power major spring, autumn, and winter seasonal rallies in gold and thus its miners’ stocks.  Interestingly market forces behind the former are the least-understood out of all gold’s seasonal surges.  Maybe that’s why this imminent spring rally has also proven gold’s weakest.

Yet surprisingly gold stocks still enjoy their best seasonal outperformance relative to their metal during these same coming months!  So gold stocks’ spring rally has proven their strongest seasonal one during gold’s modern bull-market years.  This contradictory mismatch between gold’s worst seasonal rally and its miners’ best one offers an important clue on the spring rally’s motivating impetus, sentiment is the key.

Traders’ psychology exceedingly influences their capital-allocation decisions.  They won’t buy gold or gold stocks or anything unless they are optimistic prices will climb on balance.  After dark cold winters in the northern hemisphere where the vast majority of the world’s traders live, spring naturally breeds optimism.  Its glorious expanding sunshine and warming temperatures universally buoy the spirits of nearly everyone.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 25, 2022

Consumer Retail May Suffer A -60% Collapse, Housing May Contract Faster Than Expected / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I discussed the potential for the invasion into Ukraine with a friend over the past few days and how this new war may change the global economy. We ended up discussing the Invasion of Kuwait that took place in August 1990. At that time, as soon as the Invasion of Kuwait started, consumers almost immediately changed their spending and financial habits.

Suddenly, people stopped going out to dinner after work. They stopped going out for drinks. They also stopped playing computer games and spending money on most outside entertainment (movies and movie rentals – back in the Blockbuster days). In short, consumers became fascinated by the televised war and lost focus on almost everything else.

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Commodities

Friday, February 25, 2022

Gold: What Should We Expect Given the Ongoing Ukraine Conflict? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As history shows, gold and silver rallies based on geopolitical tensions are often short-lived. Yesterday, a hint of a trend reversal appeared.

Don’t stop reading this mining stock analysis until you get to the part about junior mining stocks’ analogy. Something might interest you there.

While the unfortunate conflict confronting Russia and Ukraine has intensified in recent days, gold, silver, and mining stocks have benefited from the crisis. However, since history shows that geopolitical-tension-based rallies often reverse, Feb. 24 was likely a small indication of what should unfold over the next few months.

For example, gold’s sharp rally turned into a sharp intraday reversal on Feb. 24. While the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite, the S&P 500, and gold managed to end the session in the green, the GDX ETF declined by 1.93%.

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Companies

Thursday, February 24, 2022

FACBOOK MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Whilst CNBC Clowns Buy the TOP and SELL the BOTTOM! / Companies / Social Media

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The best time to buy a stock is when no one will touch it would a barge pole and that is where Facebook currently sits, where all those who were FOMO-ing before the earnings announcement such as this clown on CNBC Kevin O'Leary who said he was buying META big before earnings that's at about $325 per share!

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Stock Market More Selling Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 reprieve that wasn‘t – the buyers didn‘t arrive, and the overnight military action sparking serious asset moves, shows that buying the dip would have been a bad idea. And it still is. Risk-on assets are likely to suffer, and I‘m not looking for a sharp, V-shaped rebound. The partial retracement seen in cryptos wouldn‘t translate to much upside in paper assets – it will likely be sold into as the bottom would take time to form. The safe haven premium seen in precious metals, crude oil and other real assets would ebb and flow, but a higher base has been established. The world has changed overnight, and recognition thereof is still pending.

I think it‘s clear why I had been derisking as much as possible, wary of volatility both ways in paper assets, and betting instead on a mix of real assets. This has been hugely paying off to subscribers and readers likewise favoring gold and crude oil with some copper added for good measure.

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Economics

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Energy Shock: Ukraine Crisis to Push Inflation Higher / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

As Russia initiates military action in Ukraine, pain at the pump is about to get even worse.

Fuel costs have already been soaring due to oil and gas supply constraints coupled with broader inflationary pressures. The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded is $3.55 – up 75 cents from a year ago. Some parts of the country are paying closer to $5.00 per gallon.

Now the threat of full-scale war in Ukraine is sending risk premiums in futures markets even higher. Crude oil futures jumped to over $100 per barrel ahead of the U.S. market open on Thursday morning.

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Economics

Thursday, February 24, 2022

UK Inflation at 30-year high / Economics / Inflation

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

The rate of inflation in the UK is at its highest point for 30 years, according to recent government figures. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the consumer price index (CPI) used to measure inflation had risen to 5.5% for January 2022. Not since March 1992 (7.1%) have levels been this high and economists predict it could even eclipse that benchmark by April.

All of which is concerning news for the average consumer, but what exactly is inflation, how is it measured and what is causing it? Can the living wage keep up? And what are the potential consequences of such an increase? Read on to find out more.

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Personal_Finance

Thursday, February 24, 2022

How to invest your money long-term / Personal_Finance / Learning to Invest

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Are you planning to invest long-term? Before jumping right in, it is always recommended to have a good knowledge on the matter, because otherwise you would be risking your money. Making the right choices is the key for a good investment and for having safer returns. It is never late to start a long-term investment, either for after your retirement or for eventual future needs. There are different options available to be considered. This way you will understand what is right for you and what is your investor’s profile. A piece of advice: always have some funds in an emergency fund for any urgency you may have to face in the future. Aside that, it is advisable to find accounts that let you to have access to your money at all time. While making your research and reading through some materials, most likely you are going to find these two options, so let’s see the difference between SIPP and ISA.

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Companies

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Golden Ocean Group Ltd. (GOGL) / Companies / Investing 2022

By: Donald_W_Dony

Company profile: Golden Ocean Group Limited, a shipping company, owns and operates a fleet of dry bulk vessels comprising Newcastlemax, Capesize, Panamax, and Ultramax vessels worldwide. It owns and operates dry bulk vessels in the spot and time charter markets. The company transports bulk commodities, such as ores, coal, grains, and fertilizers. As of March 18, 2021, it owned a fleet of 67 dry bulk vessels. Golden Ocean Group Limited is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Global Economic Recovery challenges amid new data on lingering pandemics / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

There is a common denominator between the Chinese holiday season and the COVID fight. That’s the effort to recover the pre-pandemic demand even amid new global waves of variants. There are lessons, too.

Around the world retailers aspire to reinforce sales during major holidays, which have a “multiplier effect” on revenue generation. Such efforts have greater impact when authorities implement additional policy measures to foster consumption.

With the new COVID-19 flare-ups in several cities, including Omicron infections in several Chinese cities, the country’s top economic planner, the NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) took measures to increase holiday spending and boost the economy during the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, along with the Valentine’s Day.

What was the outcome?

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

What Should You Consider When Taking a Payday Loan? / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans

By: Submissions

Online loans are booming in the United States. Financial companies can easily issue loans without requiring documents on the financial condition of the borrower. They compensate for this generosity with high rates on loans and harsh penalties for late repayment.

The ease of obtaining online credit makes this financial service accessible to all segments of the population. Services are provided without documents confirming the financial condition of the borrower. Often the borrower cannot realize the consequences that await him after signing a loan agreement.

The so-called payday loans are in great demand among borrowers. These are loans for up to one month and no more than one minimum wage. Online loans, as small as 200 dollar loans before paycheck are attracted by the ease of obtaining them. But it should be borne in mind that the cost of one day of use will be more than the market average. Also, such agreements usually suggest colossal fines and penalties for late online paycheck loans.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 21, 2022

Dow Max Drawdown Bear Stock Market 2022 - Accumulating Deviations from the Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Did you get a good heads up warning of the BEAR MARKETS current down phase BEFORE it began?

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Economics

Monday, February 21, 2022

US stagflation overshadows China’s Economic recovery and global prospects  / Economics / Global Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, the IMF downgraded global growth prospects, due to projected slowdowns in the US and China. Negative prospects could be overcome with right policies, such as trade cooperation.

Recently, the International Monetary Fund projected that global growth rate will slow to 4.4% in 2022. In the dire international landscape, global recovery has remained elusive dream since 2017, when US trade wars derailed the impending expansion. Today, unwarranted geopolitics escalate tensions.

Worse, the failure to roll out vaccines could knock another $1.5 trillion from incomes across the South, according to UNCTAD report last fall.    
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Commodities

Monday, February 21, 2022

Is It Worth Adding Gold to Your Portfolio in 2022? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold prices declined in 2021 and the prospects for 2022 are not impressive as well. However, the yellow metal’s strategic relevance remains high.

Last month, the World Gold Council published two interesting reports about gold. The first one is the latest edition of Gold Demand Trends, which summarizes the entire last year. Gold supply decreased 1%, while gold demand rose 10% in 2021. Despite these trends, the price of gold declined by around 4%, which – for me – undermines the validity of the data presented by the WGC.

I mean here that the relevance of some categories of gold demand (jewelry demand, technological demand, the central bank’s purchases) for the price formation is somewhat limited. The most important driver for gold prices is investment demand. Unsurprisingly, this category plunged 43% in 2021, driven by large ETF outlfows.
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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 21, 2022

Why the "60 / 40 Balance" May Be Hazardous to Your Stocks Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

Notice the similar pattern between these two bond charts

Financial advisors have long advocated a mix of 60% stocks / 40% bonds to cushion portfolios from downturns in the stock market.

The thinking is that stocks go up in the long-term, hence, that's where investors should allocate the most. At the same time, advisors acknowledge that stock prices can sometimes go down so "less risky" bonds will provide at least some protection.

The problem with this investment strategy is that bonds can go into bear markets too. Moreover, they can do so at the same time as stocks.

Let's review what happened during the Great Depression of the early 1930s. Here's a chart and commentary from Robert Prechter's 2021 Last Chance to Conquer the Crash:

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 19, 2022

Dow Stock Market Expected Max Drawdown 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 18, 2022

Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 18, 2022

Crypto Will Devour the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency

By: Stephen_McBride


Longtime RiskHedge readers know crypto is one of the best moneymaking opportunities in the world. Cryptos like Ethereum (ETH) have outperformed even the hottest stocks by 10X in the past few years.

And we’re still only in the first inning of this opportunity. For example, did you know Apple (AAPL) is larger than the entire crypto market?

This fact alone makes my big call sound totally absurd…

Crypto will devour the stock market.
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Housing-Market

Friday, February 18, 2022

Useful Budgeting Tips for a Home Renovation / Housing-Market / Home Improvements

By: Steve_Barker

Are you in the process of planning a home renovation? If so, you're probably trying to figure out how to fit the project into your budget. It can be tricky to stay on track when working with a limited amount of money. But don't worry, you’re in the right place! This article will guide you through some tips to consider while budgeting for your home renovation.

Look at Cost vs. Value

When planning your budget, consider both the cost and the value of each renovation project. Some projects, like a new roof or windows, offer good value for the money. Other projects, like a kitchen remodel or home addition, may be more expensive, but can also increase the value of your home. It’s crucial to weigh up the cost and benefits of each project before deciding which ones to include in your budget. Knowing the average kitchen renovation cost worldwide will help you plan your kitchen renovation project budget.

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Local

Friday, February 18, 2022

Storm Eunice Heading for Sheffeld - Risk of Trees Blowing Over - Extreme Weather / Local / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

Storm Eunice Heading for Sheffeld - Risk of Trees Blowing Over - Extreme Weather

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