Saturday, June 05, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I 'Believe' We Rally Into A June Swoon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
It is now approaching almost a decade since I began writing public articles outlining my analysis in various markets. And, I have learned a lot about the general investor community based upon many of the comments I have received during that time.
One of the things that I find quite pervasive is the drive for "common-think." But, even that is a misleading classification. You see, I do not believe investors think anymore.
Rather, I see investors often grab onto something they read or hear in the media, and take personal "ownership" over that idea because it resonates with them for whatever reason. It then becomes the basis for their entire view of the market, and they seek articles which provide confirmation to their bias, and argue with articles that do not. So, rather than seeking out the truth in the market and continually testing their perspective in an objective fashion, most investors simply adopt a personal opinion and ignore or attack anything that disagrees with that opinion. Therefore, truth and profit in investing no longer seem to be the ultimate goal.
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Saturday, June 05, 2021
Stock Market Russell 2000 After Reaching A Trend Channel High Flags Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Russell 2000, which had experienced an incredible 48% upside price rally after the November 2020 US elections, has recently peaked near an upward sloping price channel that originated shortly after the 2010 Housing Crisis bottom. The incredible aspect is that the post-COVID price rally accelerated at such an extreme rate that the current peak level (highlighted by the MAGENTA circle on the chart below) represents an extreme rally phase in price. Unquestionably, at this point, the markets are searching for a new trend and the IWM has consolidated into a sideways Flagging price formation.
I believe global traders are currently searching for new opportunities and have taken the past 45+ days to re-evaluate the extent of the post-COVID rally in the markets. Ironically, the IWM and SPY show similar types of extreme rallies to a previous (2009~2010) price channel high. It is the opinion of my team and I that the markets have entered an over-enthusiastic rally phase to reach these levels and are currently stalling while searching for a new trend.
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Saturday, June 05, 2021
Money Is Cheap, Own Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: The_Gold_Report
Peter Krauth of the Gold Resource Investor discusses rising inflation and the role of hard assets. Sure Mr. Biden, money is cheap. But whose money is it?
The White House recently sent a $6 trillion budget plan to Congress.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Biden's first wide-ranging budget calls for big spending on infrastructure, education and, of course, climate change. His plan lays out $6 trillion in spending against just $4.2 trillion in revenues. That's an enormous 37% bump up from 2019 spending levels, and it suggests a deficit of $1.8 trillion, nearly double that of 2019.
The idea is to spend now while money is cheap, with interest rates at historical lows. In fact, they're at the lowest levels in 5,000 years of history.
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Friday, June 04, 2021
Bitcoin and Ravencoin Cryptos CRASH Bear Market Buying Levels Price Targets / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst my in-depth analysis is pending completion, however I have been flagging for several months that the crypto's are in a bubble that will burst / crash / plunge enter into a bear market for which we received a taste of what to expect a few days ago. So my message and strategy has been NOT to hold any meaningful amount of crypto i.e. the only crypto I have is what I have mined with a couple of existing desktop PC's and even then most of the funds generated (80%) have been SPENT because I know that the price of most of not all crypto's is going to head a lot lower.
So in response to patron requests and in advance of my more in-depth analysis on the crypto space that is about 50% complete, then here are the approx range of buying levels that I have had penciled in for Bitcoin for sometime of where I would be tempted to look at actually buying Bitcoin with fiat, though attempts to fund my Coinbase account with fiat has so far failed but I will leave that for my next analysis.
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Friday, June 04, 2021
Scan Computers - How to Test New Systems CPU, GPU and Hard Drive Stability With Free Software / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
New Computer, just delivered? Here's what to do to quickly test your system to make sure it is working properly before you start transferring valuable data onto it as we did with this new system bought form Scan Computers UK, a custom built PC that cost £3,300, will it pass the tests? Utilising free download off the net software, Cinebench, ATTO disk, MSI Kombuster, 3D Mark and Passmark as well as helpful utilities such as Hardware Info and Crystal Disk Info.
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Friday, June 04, 2021
Hedge Funds Getting Bullish on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The gold market has seen many momentum shifts in recent months. At the end of the day, however, the market really depends on one simple factor: Are the big money inflows trending in a bullish or bearish direction?
Near market lows, speculative interest tends to be heavily on the short (bearish) side. That sets the stage for buying pressure to be released when rallies force short sellers to cover their positions.
As traders shift to taking on more long (bullish) positions, momentum builds for higher prices.
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Friday, June 04, 2021
THERE ARE NO SOLUTIONS When the Media is the VIRUS / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: James_Quinn
“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.” – Edward Bernays – Propaganda – 1928
“For the first time in its history, Western Civilization is in danger of being destroyed internally by a corrupt, criminal ruling cabal which is centered around the Rockefeller interests, which include elements from the Morgan, Brown, Rothschild, Du Pont, Harriman, Kuhn-Loeb, and other groupings as well. This junta took control of the political, financial, and cultural life of America in the first two decades of the twentieth century.” – Carroll Quigley – Tragedy & Hope – 1966
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Friday, June 04, 2021
Investors Who Blindly Trust the ‘Experts’ Will Get Left Behind / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The country has largely been divided into two camps. The first camp is full of people who just don’t pay too much attention. They have unshakable faith in Wall Street and government institutions.
The typical investor buys stocks for the long haul. It might be because financial advisors are just as unquestioning, knowing they are rarely criticized for following the herd.
Sadly, mainstream advisors still snicker whenever a client brings up gold – even though the naysayers have been wrong about gold for 20 years.
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Friday, June 04, 2021
US Stock Market Indexes Consolidate Into Flagging Pattern – Watch For Aggressive Trending Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few weeks, the US major indexes have consolidated into a sideways price channel. This is most obvious on the NASDAQ and SPY charts as we’ve seen moderately deep pullbacks through the months of April/May 2021. My research suggests this sideways price Flagging might be concerning for active traders/investors.
When the market flags into a sideways price pattern and near an Apex level, price tends to act in a very aggressive manner while attempting to establish a new trend. The longer price continues to trade within that sideways/flagging price range, the more aggressive and violent the new trend may be when it finally breaks free of the sideways price channel.
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Thursday, June 03, 2021
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Trend Analysis / Companies / Microsoft
By: Nadeem_Walayat
3. MICROSOFT - $252.5
Microsoft is up 12% since my last update, and is now over priced on an EC of 70, against fair value of 55. Unless I am missing something, the stock needs to consolidate it's powerful advance before considering going higher as it is not healthy for a stock to keep becoming more expensive. Maybe it's the 2.1% dividend yield that's attracting investors? But on an EC of 70 it is a little expensive for my taste. Not a good buy at current levels so the Buy % is 35%.
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Thursday, June 03, 2021
No More Market Bloodbath – Beyond Cryptos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 again rejected within sight of ATHs – again, but not totally convincingly. Especially the credit markets‘ mixed picture leans in effect slightly bullish, yet for the 500-strong index, the source of short-term worry would likely be the tech sector again. Either not pulling ahead as strongly, or taking a breather, which should be more noticeable in XLK than in Nasdaq 100.
VIX looks to be done declining, and the option traders have hedged their Thursday‘s bets. Given the wavering risk-on segment of the credit markets, it‘s probably justifiably enough. Inflation expectations rose a little though, faster than the Treasury yields moved, which could be taken as a sign of value likely to do overall fine next – and that‘s also confirmed by smallcaps and emerging markets. As I wrote on Friday:
(…) Is that the worst of the inflation scare being over, for now? Probably yes, and the retreating Treasury yields are mollifying – but as explained in ample detail, this calm before the (autumn) storm, is deceptive. Calling the Fed‘s bluff, precious metals (and some commodities) are onto something, really.
It‘s only the cream of select commodities that has been taken off – in the big scheme of things, nothing but a consolidation within an existing secular bull market, is happening there. While the inflation trades have been dialed back to a degree, they haven‘t been broken as the Fed is in a reactive, not proactive mode. More precisely, it remains in denial of the inflation ahead.
In other words, I am not buying into the taper smoke and mirrors. The Fed knows that it can‘t (seriously) take away the support – it can only talk that, and look what the market does next. It‘s a long journey of preparation, and I am not looking for the central bank to move any time soon:
Thursday, June 03, 2021
Bank run, or run from the banks? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Raymond_Matison
Our nation’s economic conditions have been influenced negatively by a viral lockdown of overall industry such that many of its component parts are in dire financial straits, and a large portion of our total labor force not earning an adequate or any income. This has easily understandable consequences to our overall national economic fabric. For example, as individuals have less or even no earned income - it implies reduced spending on their behalf, which for a consumer–based economy has notably negative consequences. Also when a lockdown occurs people cannot and do not spend as much money – so our consumer driven economy is debilitated.Lower consumer spending also means reduced revenues and profits for manufacturers, distributors and marketers. Lower income for both individuals and companies necessarily means lower taxes collected by local and national governments, usually weakening their capabilities for stimulative fiscal policies.
Lower consumer incomes also mean that credit card, auto and mortgage loan defaults will rise – as indeed they have risen over the last several years and are likely to rise further. The inability of consumers to pay rent will cause owners of rental properties to default on their mortgages. Lower corporate profits suggests that available bank company credit lines will be tightened, and corporate bond defaults necessarily rise. Local, state, and national governments collecting fewer dollars in taxes suggests that their borrowing has to increase, heightening the concern also over such more significant bond defaults. None of this is rocket science. Corroborating this with pithy charts or tables is now unnecessary and unproductive – as such data has been ignored by investors for a decade or more, while the Federal Reserve has been flooding the country with newly created, inflationary money. Individuals, companies, and governments believe that they will always be bailed out by FED money easing policies! But quite the opposite is the truth: debt and FED money printing is now destroying both money and the economy.
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Thursday, June 03, 2021
This Chart Shows When Gold Stocks Will Explode / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The rebounds in Gold and Silver exceeded my expectations and closed May in a strong fashion, near the highs of the month.
Gold’s monthly close was the third-highest ever. Silver failed to break resistance at $28.50, but its monthly close at $28 was the second-highest in the last eight years.
As noted last week, Gold and gold stocks have perked up in real terms.
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Wednesday, June 02, 2021
The Meaning Behind Gold’s Triple Top / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
In a previous article I wrote:
“Looking at this chart, it should be apparent that gold at $2000 is fully-priced. Unless you are convinced that the US dollar is going to crash soon, then expectations for much higher gold prices at this point are unwarranted.” ($10,000 Gold Or A Triple Top?)
The article was published in August 2020 and the chart is reprinted below…
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Wednesday, June 02, 2021
Stock Market Breakout Or Breakdown – What Does The Next Big Trend Look Like? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just in case you missed this recent research article, we wanted to put it back on top of your reading list for the long Memorial Day weekend. As the markets continue to slide into this “Start of Summer” holiday, we’re still seeing big trends setting up over the next few weeks and months. The way certain assets and sectors are reacting right now may lead many investors to believe a breakout trend is setting up (which could be the case). But, behind the scenes, sectors are starting to show signs of a broader Excess Phase Peak pattern that may surprise those that are not paying attention.
Our Custom Volatility Index, shown below, suggests the markets have now rallied into extreme overbought levels which have historically resulted in a moderate price pullback after reaching levels above 13~14. We may start out seeing some type of bigger price trending/rotation after the long Memorial Day Holiday should this indicator prove accurate.
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Wednesday, June 02, 2021
Biden’s Alternate Inflation Universe / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
As Biden Speaks, remember the economy is run by the Fed and it is run by inflation
Of course, a career politician will be adept at framing the narrative just right, adding to it, tweaking it and layering on fancy words and concepts in order to veil the true and unbelievably simple fact that the inflation started under a very different presidential administration and continues to this day. The only difference is that the party that won the election gets to take a bow for the broad results that have little or nothing to do with them.
Biden goes on offensive against economic critics, argues rising wages show his agenda is working
Well, his agenda was to push rising employment costs into the economy with the inflation the Fed created out of thin air. So that is true. I am not against raising minimum wages under this vile inflationary system because low income people cannot keep up with the pace of the inflation the Fed has created. Under an inflationary regime, an inflationary (Keynesian) system, you can’t go with the old conservative method of letting each earn his or her way based on merit. At some point – due to inflation – the goalpost has been moved too far away.
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Wednesday, June 02, 2021
What You Should Know Before Buying Car Insurance / Personal_Finance / Insurance
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Every motorist needs car insurance, but it is important that you take the time to research your options and to find the best policy that will provide sufficient protection as well as be within your budget. There is a lot of misinformation out there, so keep reading to discover what you need to know before purchasing a car insurance policy.
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Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Amazon (AMZN) Stock Summer Prime Day Discount Sale / Companies / Amazon
By: Nadeem_Walayat
2. AMAZON - $3312
Amazons stock price is up 7.5% on my last update when I considered it fair value, though now it looking a little pricey with it's EC rising to 66, so I cannot see how Amazon can have much upside in the immediate future. Not a good buy at current levels so the Buy % is 35%.
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Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Gold Investor's Survival Guide / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: EWI
Hi,
With Bitcoin losing more than 50% off its April high and retail prices rising across the board, you may be looking for a place to park your cash.
How about something with a bit of a track record in that area, like gold?
In 1975, gold futures were created. From there, opportunities to trade gold have flourished via stocks, ETFs and options.
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Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Silver and Copper to Benefit from Global Electrification Push / Commodities / Electricity
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are making modest advances in this final trading week of May. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.
During the extended weekend, millions more Americans compared to last year are expected to hit the roads for travel. They will be confronted with pain at the pump as gasoline prices have risen to over $3.00 per gallon in most parts of the country.
Other signs of a serious inflation problem are building following the massive cash injections into the economy by the Federal Reserve and the Joe Biden administration.
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