Wednesday, June 16, 2021
RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION BIG PICTURE! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I know it can get a bit tiring to hear me bang on with the mantra of rampant money printing inflation, BUT one can tend to get lost in the detail i.e. looking at individual stocks and assets and forget the BIG PICTURE which really is one of RAMPANT MONEY PRINTING INFLATION!
For instance the stimulus that all nations have implemented is far in excess of the temporary loss of GDP due to Covid i.e. the US suffered a 10% drop from peak to trough in GDP, about $2 trillion's worth but has printed $5 trillion in response to which is about 25% of GDP!
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Wednesday, June 16, 2021
The Federal Reserve and Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Handbury
The Federal Reserve a$$holes puckered up when the April CPI/PPI figures came in, and probably puckered up even more when the May figures came in. These Fed nerds (who never got the girl/guy in high school), are dictating the monetary policy for the world. They are providing immense stimulation to the economy, yet have decided that any inflation arising from it is “transitory”. These stimuli include the following major impacts on supply and demand of goods that can lead to inflation of prices:
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Wednesday, June 16, 2021
Inflation Soars 5%! Will Gold Skyrocket? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
With the CPI annual inflation rate spiking 5% in May, gold could have gained a lot in response. However, it rallied only $20. Should we prepare for more?Whoa! Inflation soared 5% in May – quite a lot for a nonexistent (or transitory) phenomenon! But let’s start from the beginning. The CPI rose 0.6% in May, after increasing 0.8% in April. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, soared 0.7%, following a 0.9% jump in April. So, given that the pace of the monthly inflation rate decelerated, we shouldn’t worry about inflation, right? Well… we should.
First of all, inflation was higher than expected , as the consensus forecast was a 0.4% increase. Inflation surprised pundits once again, but not me. Last month, I wrote in the Fundamental Gold Report that “Inflation escalated in April. In May, however, inflation could be softer, but it will remain relatively elevated, in my view” – and this is exactly what happened. However, the unexpected rise in inflation is positive news for gold, as such a surprise should decrease the real interest rates .
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Wednesday, June 16, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Inflation Is For Fools / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
I asked you in my last article if you were more concerned with name calling than with profiting from the market. So, I was wondering if you gave it any more thought, and if you had come to a conclusion?
If not, well, let's discuss this a bit further.
Everyone today is so concerned about "inflation." Yet, everyone seems to be arguing as to whether we are experiencing inflation today. Some claim that this is true inflation, whereas others claim that it is simply transitory.
My personal opinion resides on the transitory spectrum of this issue, and I believe that over the next 6-12 months we will see the shortages easing, especially in the labor force, as we stop paying people to stay at home. But to be honest, I don't care whether my opinion is right or wrong on this issue, as it does not help me make money in the stock market.
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Wednesday, June 16, 2021
Four News Events That Could Drive Gold Bullion Demand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The halfway point of the year is quickly approaching. Dwindling confidence and concern over the direction of the country along with rising inflation expectations continue to drive strong demand for physical gold and silver. That trend appears set to continue through the second half of 2021.
Here are a few big stories with the potential to drive bullion buying in the months ahead.
Wednesday, June 16, 2021
5 ways that crypto is changing the face of online casinos / Companies / Gambling
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
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Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Transitory Inflation Debate / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
Inflation is running white-hot right now, and the reason is clear. It is because the Treasury poured $6 trillion into the economy between March of 2020 to March of 2021. That amounts to nearly $50,000 per US family in the name of pandemic relief. According to David Stockman, the government's largess was equal to 7.5 times the $800 billion of economic growth lost due to the various lockdowns and restrictions—both self-imposed or mandated. This time around the money wasn't just sent to Wall Street, as it was in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Covid-19 was a perfect excuse to deploy Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) directly to state and local governments, consumers, and businesses as well.
In other words, the government didn't just re-liquefy the banking system and then maybe hope consumers would receive some of the monetary crumbs as an ancillary consequence. The various virus-related rescue packages circumvented banks and pushed funds directly to the mass population. Paying people to lay fallow while at the same time giving them money to actually increase their consumption habits is a perfect recipe for rapidly rising Consumer Price Inflation. However, such a feat cannot be duplicated anytime soon without destroying the US dollar and the full faith and credit in our sovereign bond market.
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
USDX: The Cleanest Shirt Among the Dirty Laundry / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The precious metals seem to be ready for vacation deep dives, but all signs indicate that the USDX will stay on the side of the pool, perfectly dry.
The USD Index (USDX)
With the USD Index washing away its sins in recent weeks, the greenback has recorded five daily rallies of more than 0.40% since May 26. And with the up days growing stronger and the down days growing weaker, the change in the trend will be clear to more and more traders, which eventually would likely cause a shift in the sentiment. Case in point: while gold, silver and mining stocks are looking forward to their summer vacations (deep dives seem to be in the vacation plans, especially given today’s pre-market ~$20 decline in gold) , the USD Index has been hard at work rehabbing its reputation. And with the U.S. dollar easily the cleanest shirt among the currency basket of dirty laundry, the smell of fresh linen has begun to pique investors’ interest.
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Inflation and Stock Market SPX Record Highs. PPI, FOMC Meeting in Focus / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
Everyone (and I mean everyone) has been talking about inflation. We finally got the CPI print on Thursday: 0.6% vs. 0.4% expected! The S&P 500 didn’t seem to care, though. Record highs! What’s next?
Inflation is real, folks. Two monthly prints in a row now, with the most recent June print showing the largest increases in used cars/trucks, transportation services, fuel oil, and apparel. Initially, the CPI data release was sold in futures trading at 8:30 AM on Thursday, but price action quickly reversed to the upside. This price action stuck out to me. Markets do not always react as expected when data releases come out. In a bull market like this, sometimes the data doesn’t matter. This price action tells us a story.
Tuesday, June 15, 2021
Stock Market SPX 4310 Right Around the Corner! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is approaching its intermediate top projection of ~4310.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, June 14, 2021
AI Stocks Strength vs Weakness - Why Selling Google or Facebook is a Big Mistake! / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock market corrections are useful in gauging what is going on under the hood of corporations long before any information makes it into the public arena. For instance looking at the relative strength of the top 5 AI stocks shows Google and Facebook showing relative strength, whilst Apple and Amazon are showing relative weakness with Microsoft in the middle. What this is saying is that one should definitely NOT make the mistake of Selling Google or Facebook! Whilst as expected in my last AI stocks update Apple and Amazon are looking tired and so are unlikely to start galloping higher any time soon and thus set to under perform for some time. whilst Microsoft is doing its own thing somewhere in the middle.
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Monday, June 14, 2021
The Bitcoin Crime Wave Hits / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: EWI
The conviction gripping bitcoin's ascendancy is so deep that children are now being indoctrinated into the bullish fold. We talked about this phenomenon with respect to the stock market last month. This Bloomberg column from May 16 signals its arrival in the cryptocurrency world: "Why I Pay My Seventh Grader in Bitcoin." The columnist claims he wants his "kids to be able to think independently about money" and "feel the full spectrum of feelings that money induces." Sure, why not feel the burn of the real world? Besides, the big kids are doing it, too. According to MarketWatch, "As Bitcoin and Dogecoin Plummet, College Students" are "Going Long on Crypto." According to a survey by College Finance, "more than 60% of college students and recent graduates see crypto as a long-term investment."
In April, EWFF showed two magazine covers' positive portrayal of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. We labeled it bearish for bitcoin's immediate prospects. Last month, we added that bitcoin's "Great Arrival" into the "mainstream" of finance confirmed this forecast. One of the signals of cryptocurrencies' acceptance into the financial establishment was Coinbase Global Inc.'s emergence as a publicly traded company. On May 19, with bitcoin down more than 53% from its high, Bloomberg observed the following about the premier cryptocurrency trading platform:
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Monday, June 14, 2021
Gold Time for Consolidation and Lower Volatility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold endured a 20% correction over eight months. A 15% rebound followed that in two months. It has retraced some, but not a majority of the losses.
This action is all part of the handle of a super bullish cup and handle pattern.
The handle itself is part of a much larger bullish consolidation, but the market is approaching resistance within the handle.
Below we plot GDXJ, GDX, Gold, and Silver.
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Monday, June 14, 2021
More Banks & Investors Are NOT Believing Fed Propaganda / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
As inflation continues to heat up, gold and silver markets are once again on the verge of breaking out.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released much-anticipated Consumer Price Index data. The CPI came in at a full 5.0% year over year through May.
The so-called “core” rate, which excludes food and energy, showed an annual increase of 3.8%. That represents the biggest jump since all the way back in 1992.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials continue to downplay the inflation threat. They insist the recent surge is transitory and doesn’t reflect a major trend to come.
But as Denver’s local 9NEWS reported, not all economists are echoing the Fed’s messaging on inflation.
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Monday, June 14, 2021
Market Inflation Bets – Squaring or Not / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 shook off another record making inflation reading, and bond markets couldn‘t be happier. Volatility is back down, but the option traders turned cautious – that‘s fodder for the next upswing eventually. Many signs are pointing towards it – emerging markets rising with the dollar on the defensive, for example. Yes, the dollar with yields are key to watch now.
S&P 500 was led higher by Nasdaq, which more than welcomed further retreat in yields. The tech led rally is here, and value while not down and out, is taking a breather. Especially financials don‘t like the move in yields, and we aren‘t at the 1.40% mark on 10-year Treasury bond yet. The summer lull in bonds is here, and my views on inflation getting permanently elevated, Fed‘s taper plays, bond yields retreat, inflation rearing its ugly head later this year before a growth scare strikes, can be found in the Latest Highlights and this week‘s articles amply discussed.
So, stocks don‘t look like retreating, as the bond market momentum doesn‘t favor much downside, and tech would likely overpower that.
Let‘s briefly check the reactions of other markets to yesterday‘s well telegraphed CPI springboard theme in stocks and precious metals.
Monday, June 14, 2021
Is Gold Really an Inflation Hedge? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation is back, and that’s usually depicted as good for gold. But is the yellow metal still a hedge against inflation, or has something changed?Inflation has returned. This is partly understandable. After all, during the Covid recession , consumers and businesses accumulated a lot of cash as their spending was reduced, while revenues were sustained by money transfers from the government. These funds are now entering the economy, which makes demand grow much faster than supply, thus boosting prices. After some time, supply may catch up, curbing inflation. However, there is an important risk that inflation will turn out to be higher and/or more permanent than many analysts believe.
From the fundamental point of view, gold should benefit from higher inflation. But why? In theory, there are several channels by which inflation supports the yellow metal. First, the inflationary increase in the money supply makes all goods and services more expensive, including gold. Indeed, the scientific paper by Lucey and others finds a reliable long-run relationship between gold and the US money supply.
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Monday, June 14, 2021
The FED Holds the Market. How Long Will It Last? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
With investors discrediting fundamentals to follow the FED’s instruction, it seems everything relies now on a few people’s say-so.
It's a Bird, It's a Plane, It's the FED
With Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED), donning his cape like Superman and his monetary crew akin to The Avengers, investors’ faith in the FED was on full display on Jun. 10. Case in point: with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) surging by 4.93% year-over-year (YoY) – the highest YoY percentage increase since 2008 – the bond, stock and currency markets barely flinched.
The commodity PPI surged by 17.25% YoY in April. And if you exclude the 17.36% YoY jump in July 2008, it was the largest YoY percentage increase since December 1974. For context, the commodity PPI often leads the headline CPI and that’s why tracking the former’s movement is so important. Moreover, reconnecting with the green line implies a ~5.50% YoY percentage increase in the headline CPI.
Friday, June 11, 2021
Coinbase vs Binance for Bitcoin, Ethereum Crypto Trading & Investing During Bear Market 2021 / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
To profit from the post crypto mania bubble top crash bear market has me seeking deposit thousands of pounds onto exchanges to buy crypto's when cheap, two of the foremost exchanges are Coinbase and Binance, where unfortunately Coinbase is a big fat fail, is it goes out of its what to extract funds from customers that results in a piece of garbage trading and investing platform which is set against Binance, which actually swings too far in the other direction, making it far too easy for newcomers to trade on margin, and even options! But of the two as this video demonstrates Binance is the clear winner. What's more you can get 10% Discount on Binance transaction fees by signing up with his code LZ728VLZ or following this link https://www.binance.com/en/register?ref=LZ728VLZ
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Friday, June 11, 2021
Gold Price $4000 – Insurance, A Hedge, An Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Kelsey_Williams
After decades of concerted effort by governments and central banks, the focus away from gold as money has led to its characterization as an investment, a hedge, insurance, etc. Some still refer to it as a barbarous relic. Are any of these descriptions valid?
GOLD AS INSURANCE
There is a seemingly plausible argument for calling gold a hedge or insurance given volatile conditions in our society today. But the logic leading to those classifications ignores the single factor that affects the price of gold. That single factor is the actual loss in purchasing power of the paper money substitute in which gold is priced.
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Friday, June 11, 2021
What Drives Gold Prices? (Don't Say "the Fed!") / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: EWI
Excerpted from Elliott Wave International's new FREE report "Gold Investor's Survival Guide: 5 Principles That Help You Stay Ahead of Price Turns."
There is a glaring hole in the popular understanding of what drives gold's price.
Mainstream finance believes the Federal Reserve's monetary and interest rate policies shape the trend.
That sounds like a solid explanation... except, the Fed officials themselves disagree!
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