Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
British Pound Plunges on Record Trade Deficit / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Sterling already reeling from the credit crunch hitting the financial sector hard, tumbled again today on news of the biggest trade deficit since the aftermath of Nigel Lawson's late 1980's boom which was followed by early 1990's bust. The trade deficit soared to £20billions for the third quarter, in large part the credit crunch is to blame as investment income flows out of the worlds financial centre in London, whereas usually the case is for a healthy surplus. The deficit as a proportion of GDP amounts to 5.7%, and is way ahead of city estimates of 3%.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
US Dollar Rally to Terminate Under Weight of Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Old man winter definitely arrived last night (for the second time this year, dumping around 6 inches of snow on the Peg. Each snowflake by itself is nothing in weight, but collectively represent a significant amount of weight that can pack down and form glaciers that may not move mountains, but definitely carve a path. Think of each USD as a snowflake, which by itself is nothing. Collectively though, the trillions of USD similar to the snowflakes blanketing a city are instead blanketing the globe. This creates a real slippery situation that causes accidents left and right, even for those that are conservative drivers. Snowploughs (AKA Central Bankers) can clean up and move the snow, but it merely is removed. Allow for a strong wind and the snowflakes are blown all over the place, creating huge drifts in areas where there once was nothing. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 17, 2007
2008: Penance for 2007 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Paul_Petillo
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
and never brought to mind ?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
and auld lang syne ?
The timing of these year-end prediction columns is often of little importance. Believe it or not, what happens in December tends to meld into January. This blurring of the lines between one year and the next will not be your usual holiday hangover.
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007
US Dollar Bounce May be Temporary as Global Credit Markets Remain Frozen / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
As pundits on Wall Street want to hop on the next trade, they pronounce the U.S. dollar is due for a bounce. In favor of a bounce speaks that popular media cover the dollar's demise; and the Economist shows a burning dollar bill on its cover page while discussing the “panic” out of the dollar. While short-term currency moves are notoriously difficult to predict, it is rather worrisome that contrarian indicators pose the best arguments for better fortunes for the greenback. We also beg to differ with the Economist: there is no panic out of the dollar, at least not yet.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 06, 2007
U.S. Assets Getting Devalued as US Dollar Falls! What to do... / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: The subprime mortgage crisis and real estate implosion in America have created a debt debacle. Consumers and corporations are in debt up to their eyeballs. And the national debt is increasing at a rate of more than $7.4 billion per day !
As a result, the Fed has been forced to crank up the printing presses to flood the economy with paper money in an attempt to inflate away the debt and keep it from crushing the economy.
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Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Unwinding of Carry Trade Sees Rising Yen and Falling Stock Markets / Currencies / Yen Carry Trade
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Yen rises across the board as risk appetite takes a fresh hit following the latest evidence of the sub-prime mortgage spillover on the market and broader economy. JP Morgan Chase's downgraded the earnings of four of its competitors on the basis of lower higher write downs and lower M&A revenue. Meanwhile, downgraded and defaulted debt has reached towards state-run pension pools in Connecticut , Montana and Florida , with the latter owning more than $1 billion of downgraded paper.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Japanese Yen Will Surge Higher Than Most Think Possible! / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Money_and_Markets
The Japanese yen is like a global risk thermometer. When it's going up, investors are nervous.
And now, not only has the yen been going up ... but I think the mercury will soon break through the top of the glass.
Reason: The yen carry trade is reversing.
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Saturday, December 01, 2007
World Abandoning the US Dollar as International Currency For Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The foreign exchange markets are not solely about exchange rates. They are about values, smooth flowing of international trade, about trust and reliability. The sight of the $ falling over a long period of time, with bounces and recoveries that don't change the downward trend is far more than simply a drop in value!Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Falling US Dollar to Boost US Stock Markets and Consumer Spending / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Imagine that you have $2.8 trillion sitting around. And for kicks, let's assume that most of that money, about two-thirds, is invested in U.S. dollars and other dollar-denominated assets like U.S. Treasury bonds.
And let's assume that your currency was linked to the U.S. dollar, too. In other words, you often buy dollars to maintain a stable value relative to the buck.
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Friday, November 23, 2007
Weak US Dollar Looks Set to Lose Role as the Worlds Reserve Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
Goldfinger? Bofinger! "...Once the Dollar loses its role as the supreme reserve currency, just what other uses might it be put to exactly – wall-papering the inside of central bank vaults? Rolled up for use in the People's Bank restrooms...?"
YOU THINK you've heard it all before. But then some idiot comes along and stops your heart.
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Friday, November 23, 2007
Foreign Investors Set to Abandon the US Dollar as Fed Gives Up Fight Against Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
As internal debates in the Gulf and Asian nations intensify over the need to continue propping up the U.S. economy, dangerous signals this past week from the Fed, Freddie Mac, and Wall Street may be pushing them to finally let go of the lifelines that have kept America afloat.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 22, 2007
US Dollar Loses the Currency War - Gold Readies For Next Move Higher on Inflation / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The competing currency wars are beginning to escalate. Since 2002 the battles have certainly shown signs of economic damage. But they are really heating up. The winners are difficult to define. The losers are all nations involved. The important viewpoint is to identify which nations and economies will lose relatively less, and how they manage the warfare so as to gain an advantage over rival nations. The losers are clear. They are the United States and all nations which hang on with their tight US$ peg for political reasons. It is difficult to identify China (plus Hong Kong ) and Arab oil exporters as uniform winners when their economies are suffering some blatant distortions of their own. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 17, 2007
US Dollar Devaluation is a Supply and Demand Problem / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Andy_Sutton
Dollar falls to all-time low against the Euro"
"Canadian dollar hits all-time high versus US counterpart"
"Australian dollar at multi-year high"
"British Pound crosses $2 threshold"
These are just some of the headlines that have emerged during the past year concerning the ails of the US Dollar. There have been hundreds, perhaps thousands of explanations for why this is a good or bad thing. Thousands more questions asked, but never answered. At the end of the day though, it is really about our old friend: The law of Supply and Demand.
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Friday, November 16, 2007
US Dollar Mirage in the Desert / Currencies / Financial Crash
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes: I'm in Las Vegas for the Traders' Expo right now, where I'm going to teach a group of investors how to cash in on currencies. Today, I want to share with you what I'm going to tell them here in Sin City ...
It's Five O'Clock in the Morning and the Markets Are Drunk on House Money
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Thursday, November 15, 2007
Currency Cross Signals - Unwinding of Yen Carry Trades Leads to Temporary Dollar Rally Against Long-term Devaluation / Currencies / Yen Carry Trade
By: Jim_Willie_CB
In the last several weeks, tremendous movement and change has occurred in foreign currencies. Almost all foreign currencies have made multi-year highs against the crippled US Dollar. The United States suffers from wretched finances and a banking system teetering on seizures. In progress is the gradual dismantling of large tinkertoy structures within its vast network of bond risk management. Its entire business of structured finance is under siege and revaluation.
The banking & bond woes cannot be blamed on just the subprime mortgages, those mispriced collections of slime used in considerable export to those very friendly parties who supply the necessary $2.1 billion in daily US capital. No, the USDollar can be identified as a ‘subprime currency' slowly enduring recognition as such. The buck is badly mispriced, offering a yield under half of the true price inflation rate of 10.4%, falsely rated as ‘AAA' under coercion, supported by broad statistical lies, exported widely to foreign institutions, and wrecking havoc in economies who peg their currencies to the US$. How shallow can any denial be?
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Monday, November 12, 2007
Pound Sterling Plunges Against the Yen / Currencies / British Pound
By: Regent_Markets
For once it wasn't just the Dollar that took a beating last Friday as the British pound fell sharply against the Yen, Euro, Swiss Franc and even the Greenback itself. The fall was all the more telling given the general mauling the dollar took last week against a whole host of currencies. Before Friday's pullback the Dollar hit a 26 year low against Sterling.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 09, 2007
Bernanke Squirms As the US Dollar Burns / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Brady_Willett
Bernanke's larger than expected 50 bps cut on September 18 helped spark a sell off in the U.S. dollar. A deteriorating outlook for the U.S. economy and another Fed rate cut on October 31 accelerated the dollar's decline. Fear has taken over in November…
It is not surprising that against this backdrop talk about how wonderful a weaker dollar is for America has nearly vanished. As a quick example, head of currency research at Morgan Stanley, Stephen Jen, was claiming a few weeks ago that although the dollar may weaken further, “…investors should keep in mind that the dollar is undervalued and ready to appreciate as soon as the economy regains traction.” The most recent sell off in the dollar now has Mr. Jen rattled, not to mention many others:
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Friday, November 09, 2007
US Dollar - A Crisis to Shatter the Whole World / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Adrian_Ash
THE FRENCH PRESIDENT was in Washington this week, speaking to Congress en Français and telling the United States to stop dumping Dollars and risking a global financial crisis.
Ooh la la! Sounds just like old times...
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Friday, November 09, 2007
China Slams US Dollar; Yen Looks Great! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Money_and_Markets
Jack Crooks writes:China is getting very good at controlling currency values, and not just their own. While it's no secret they've been artificially suppressing the value of the Chinese yuan, they're now pushing down the value of the U.S. dollar, too!
The implications for the currency markets are huge. Most importantly, this development propelled the yen much higher, and I expect the momentum to continue building. Here's the scoop ...
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Thursday, November 08, 2007
Deadly Dollar Downtrend States All Inflation Adjusted Statistics Are Wrong, True Inflation is Double CPI! / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The public and investment community continues to be bombarded with denials as to the importance of the seemingly endless slide in the US Dollar, along with curiously shallow commentary that the US $ slide seems overdone. The US$ exchange rates could justify a 50% decline from here, out of sheer principle, not based upon the relative price of milk cartons or taxi rides. The comprehension of the gold breakout signal seems equally misunderstood and minimized. To be clear, the people have begun to sense with alarm the nature of the energy cost problem, but do not detect its weak currency roots. Read full article... Read full article...