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Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Friday, December 11, 2015

Forex Trading Alert: EUR/USD - North or South? / Currencies / Euro

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Earlier today, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 4 rose by 13,000 to 282,000, missing analysts' forecasts. As a result, the USD Index moved slightly lower, but did it change anything in the short-term picture of the euro?

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:

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Currencies

Thursday, December 10, 2015

USDCZK Dips Worth Eyeing / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: AnyOption

With the end of the year rapidly approaching, traders and investors are busy squaring positions and taking profits in the lead up to the holidays.  One of the most notably impacts has been the sustained downward pressure on the US dollar after the currency proved amongst the best performers of 2015, with the dollar index up 8.00% year-to-date.  However, in the uncertainty leading up to the FOMC decision next week, the remains softer versus peers despite the potential for the unveiling of a new rate hike cycle.  However, by comparison, Europe looks no closer to exiting crisis-driven policies and seems intent on keeping policy accommodative over the medium-term.  The Czech Republic in particular has been mirroring the slowdown in Europe, marked by weak inflation and record low interest rates.  With a major policy divergence approaching, USDCZK losses might present an exceptional opportunity to gain greater exposure to dollar upside in 2016.

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Currencies

Thursday, December 10, 2015

EURUSD Final Bear Rally Leg Underway / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Austin_Galt

Price recently traded down to support outlined in previous analysis before reversing and trading higher in impulsive style. While a turn back up was expected in order for the bear rally to embark on the final leg higher, this move was on the back of the ECB announcement.

There is always a reason for a move and the market does indeed work in mysterious ways. Some will say this was just a lucky coincidence and I must admit I don't truly understand it. However, what I do understand is that I have seen this type of stuff happen on too many occasions for it to be just a coincidence.

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Currencies

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Keynes on the Menace of Printing Money / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Michael_J_Kosares

How the celebrated economist might have structured his investment portfolio today

“I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years ago.” – John Maynard Keynes, 1946

John Maynard Keynes made that admission to Henry Clay, a member of the Bank of England's Advisory Committee, in 1946. Ten days later he passed away. Keynes had come full circle – from economic interventionist extraordinaire to proponent of Adam Smith's laissez faire. Twenty-five years after that, Richard Nixon would suspend dollar convertibility, scrap the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regime system of which Keynes was the principal architect and allow currencies and gold to float freely in international markets. The fiat money system of the late 20th and early 21st centuries was born. Though a radically different system from the one Keynes created in the aftermath of World War II, Richard Nixon declared upon its launch that "we are all Keynsians now."

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Currencies

Saturday, December 05, 2015

Euro, Dollar, Buy the Rumor and Sell the News Alive in Forex Markets / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: EconMatters

ECB Disappoints

All those who continue to forget this trading maxim were royally punished on Thursday morning as the ECB could not match the trading enthusiasm built into the move in shorting the Euro and thus going long the US Dollar for the prior 7 weeks lead up into the ECB Monetary Policy Decision.

This is such a strong trading maxim to buy the rumor, and sell the actual news that it is the exception rather than the rule where an event over delivers. The best move is to take profits the day before the event as opposed to getting crushed on the news which happened today in the Euro and US Dollar forex trades. Literally the amount of crushing that some traders took this morning regarding giving up a month`s worth of profits in an hour is stomach churning.

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Currencies

Friday, December 04, 2015

US Dollar Index Technical Outlook / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Austin_Galt

The US Dollar index has made marginal new highs which I believe will turn out to be a false break top. Let's take a top down approach beginning with the monthly chart.

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Currencies

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

U.S. Treasury Secretary Makes Sad Admission about Coinage Devaluation / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

Traders are bidding up the U.S. dollar and dumping metals as they become more convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next meeting. Janet Yellen and company have been talking about raising rates for the better part of a year, though. All talk and no action so far.

Will they finally hike or keep crying wolf? We'll find out when the Fed meets on December 15-16.

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Currencies

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

How Money Disappears in a Fractional-Reserve Money System / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Frank_Shostak

Most experts are of the view that the massive monetary pumping by the US central bank during the 2008 financial crisis saved the US and the world from another Great Depression. On this the Federal Reserve Chairman at the time Ben Bernanke is considered the man that saved the world. Bernanke in turn attributes his actions to the writings of Professor Milton Friedman who blamed the Federal Reserve for causing the Great Depression of 1930s by allowing the money supply to plunge by over 30 percent.

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Currencies

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

U.S. Dollar Remains the reserve currency of the world for a good reason / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Bloomberg

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew spoke with Brendan Greeley on Bloomberg TV's new flagship morning program, Bloomberg <GO>. Lew discussed how government can address the lack of access to banking in the United States, financial services' rules and regulations and the benefits of Dodd-Frank.

On the IMF elevated the Chinese yuan, Lew said: "The U.S. dollar remains the reserve currency of the world for a good reason." He added: "We've also had long, ongoing discussions with China about their currency practices. They have made commitments to us that will not intervene in ways that are unfair. And those are important commitments. And they know that we're going to hold them to those commitments."

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Currencies

Sunday, November 29, 2015

GBP British Pound Likely to Rally Against Euro / Currencies / British Pound

By: Richard_Cox

The EUR/GBP is often a neglected pair when we look at activity in the currency markets, as alternatives like the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD tend to receive most of the market headlines.  But there are some potentially significant implications for the current activity that is being witnessed in the EUR/GBP, and this sets up some interesting trading possibilities for forex traders in these areas.

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Currencies

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Triggers In US Dollar Collapse / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Jim_Willie_CB

To be sure, groups of oil rags are accumulating in the Western financial basement. They await an incident to light them on fire to produce the grandest bonfire in modern history. Many incidents, events, and decisions created the current broken untenable wrecked set of conditions that together comprise the structural breakdown, upon which systemic failure is witnessed each day. The 1990 decade saw the creation of bank derivatives, which compensated for Western bank system insolvency. It was the dirty secret in backfire from a decade of outsourcing US industry to the Pacific Rim. The refusal by Greenspan to permit a recession early in the 2000 decade interrupted a normal housing correction, and initiated another credit stimulus. The result was the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis which will forever bear the Greenspan signature. The Lehman Brothers killjob was important to force the big Western banks to share the load, to tie (lash) themselves together, and to assure the systemic failure in an inexorable march to ruin. The LIBOR rate scandal confirmed that the London hive did not produce honey, but rather scum and dross.

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Currencies

Saturday, November 21, 2015

GBP Sterling's 180 Turn / Currencies / British Pound

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Is it finally catching up with GBP? The British pound defied gravity during most of the week, shrugging disappointing figures on inflation, retail sales and the CBI trend survey. A somewhat hawkish speech by BoE MPC member Ben Broadbent on Wednesday may have been among the causes behind the gains. The pound even managed to rally against the US dollar on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an expectedly hawkish set of FOMC minutes. Eventually, GBP saw the peak on Thursday evening with GBPUSD giving up at the near confluence of the 55-DMA and 200-DMAs at $1.5312 and $1.5336. Unfortunately, our short GBPUSD trade in the Premium Insights (opened on Nov 6) was stopped out at $1.5330, only 6 pips below the high of the week. After that, GBPUSD shed 1.5 cent to settle near $1.5200.

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Currencies

Thursday, November 12, 2015

USD, XEU, CRB, DBC, Oil, Copper and Gold Chartology of Deflation / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to update some of the charts on the possible inflection point we looked at about three weeks or so ago. That possible inflection point is still gaining momentum to the downside as the deflationary environment still looks good to go. No market goes straight up or down so one needs to expect some turbulence along the way.

In order for the deflationary theme to play out we will need to see a strong US dollar which will affect the commodities complex and other important currencies of the world. Below is a closeup view for the US dollar that now shows the bullish falling wedge in breakout mode with one backtest to the top rail so far.

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Currencies

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

The US Dollar Rally Could Trigger a $9 Trillion Debt Implosion / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Graham_Summers

The US Dollar rally, combined with the ECB’s policies and the Fed’s hint at raising rates in December, is at risk of blowing up a $9 trillion carry trade.

When the Fed cut interest rates to zero in 2008, it flooded the system with US Dollars. The US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. NO matter what country you’re in (with few exceptions) you can borrow in US Dollars.

And if you can borrow in US Dollars at 0.25%… and put that money into anything yielding more… you could make a killing.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Top in Bitcoin Price Might Be behind Us / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

In short: short speculative positions, target at $153, stop-loss at $515.

Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama has recently expressed his views on Bitcoin in an interview with the Bitcoin Uncensored Podcast:

BU [Bitcoin Uncensored]: If you're carrying that much cash, you probably would want the anonymity features of bitcoin. On another note, why do we have 2% processing charges on credit cards you would say? If in fact the cost of moving money is zero.

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Currencies

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Bitcoin Price Surges 55% In Month – Chinese Moving Capital Into Bitcoin and Gold / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: GoldCore

Bitcoin has been surging in value since mid October and gained more than 20% yesterday alone. At one point, it hit a yearly high of more than $491 (see chart).

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

How China and the West Work Together to Manipulate the Global Currency War / Currencies / Currency War

By: MISES

Brendan Brown writes: From reading the commentaries you might have imagined that the process of a currency winning international reserve status depends on getting the IMF seal of approval. At least that seems to be the story with China.

So, strange to tell, the great international monies of the past evolved either before the IMF was created or without its help. Think of the Deutsche mark and Swiss franc — the two upstarts of the 1970s and 1980s — or briefly the Japanese yen when it enjoyed great popularity. Their emergence was due to the path of monetary stability chosen by their issuing authorities together with complete freedom from restrictions.

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Currencies

Monday, November 02, 2015

Bitcoin Price Doubles in 10 Months / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Bitcoin is on course for posting its 8th consecutive weekly gain (longest series of advances since late 2013) and is up 113% from its January lows. The recent break out in momentum emerged from last week's decision from the European Court of Justice to classify Bitcoin as a currency rather than a commodity, which means it will be exempt from VAT, thereby, improving its chances of being traded in an exchange.

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Currencies

Sunday, November 01, 2015

Why The Super Bearish Gold and Silver COTs Portend a Plunging Euro... / Currencies / Euro

By: Clive_Maund

It was ironic that when Dr Watson complained to his companion Sherlock Homes that he had a stomach ache, Holmes clarified the situation at once by saying "Alimentary, my dear Watson". More generally, the legendary sleuth of Victorian London would make light of his accomplishments after solving cases that baffled the police, by remarking "Elementary, my dear Watson". Doubtless this expression was deeply irritating to his arch-enemy Moriarty.

Today we are going make light of what to other analysts may be abstruse and possibly baffling, by "joining the dots" to demonstrate the linear connection between an extremely bearish silver COT and an imminent crashing euro, so that by the conclusion of this article, you, dear reader, will have a clear understanding of what is set to unfold, and will be able to explain to other confused souls that it really is elementary.

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Currencies

Friday, October 30, 2015

$DXY - Cash US Dollar Index Chart / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Gary_Savage

This might be interesting. As of early this morning the dollar is forming a failed breakout. The path of the dollar was clearly down until the ECB derailed it with talk of more easing last week. Are the fundamentals starting to pull it back down again?

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