Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 08, 2014
What a Reserve Currency Should Look Like / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: Much has been written lately, including by me, about the coming rejection of the dollar as the primary reserve currency of the world’s most important central banks.
My prediction is based upon two things: one, that the Federal Reserve is controlled by inflationist politicians whose main goal is to monetize the federal government’s vast annual budget deficits; and, two, that the rest of the world is getting fed up with holding ever more fiat dollars of decreasing purchasing power. In the first instance, as long as the Fed can get away with printing dollars that ultimately are used to purchase federal government debt, there is no reason for it to cease federal debt monetization, or for the federal government itself to balance its budget.
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Saturday, December 06, 2014
Current US Dollar Trend Defined / Currencies / US Dollar
By: David_Petch
Performance of the US Dollar Index has been stellar and is developing an interesting pattern that once complete around mid to late March 2015 will indicate the final upper target expected around August 2015. This report has a lot of technical information and might be considered “rather dry” to most, but I encourage the reader to wade through this, chew on it and digest it. For those who want the direct forecast up front, avoid commodities and go long S&P 500 type of Exchange Traded Funds. By simply being conservative, 10-15% can still be made between now and August 2015.
Thursday, December 04, 2014
The World's Strongest Currency? / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Since June, the U.S. dollar has been unbeatable... It has beaten every major currency, except one.
Specifically, the U.S. dollar has outperformed 30 out of the 31 major world currencies in that time.
But what is the one currency that is stronger than the dollar? Which country is beating the U.S. now?
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
Japan Abenomics From Faith to Failure to Stop Deflation / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: EWI
Why the biggest monetary stimulus effort in the world did NOT stop deflation in its tracks
When Shinzo Abe became the Prime Minister of Japan in December 2012, he was regarded with the kind of reverence that politicians dream about. He was featured in a hit pop song ("Abeno Mix"), hailed as a "samurai warrior," and featured on the May 2013 The Economist cover as none other than Superman.
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Thursday, December 04, 2014
US Dollar Up/Down Trends Lasts 6-10 Years and Have Significant % Moves / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Jas_Jain
The index used, Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies, is published by St. Louis Fed and is very highly correlated with DXY.
The central banks policies and govt policies, announced and unannounced, and agreements, as in 1980s, play a big role in currency moves. The latest example is Japanese Yen. However, speculators and momentum players (trend followers) are the primary drivers of trends that last several years until extremes, not justified by economic fundamentals, are reached and reversals follow.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014
Commodity price weakness could be game changer for Currencies / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: MahiFX
The recent rout in oil prices and that of a number of other key commodities could have some surprising ramifications for the forex markets next year.
The obvious victims so far have been the commodity currencies, some of which have been hammered. If commodity prices are entering a long-term bear market that could have significant ramifications for monetary policy in the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and other developed countries.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014
AUD/USD Approaches Solid Support / Currencies / Austrailia
By: Nadia_Simmons
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate at a record-low of 2.50%, which pushed the Australian dollar higher against the greenback. As a result, AUD/USD bounced off yesterday’s fresh 2014 low, but will we see further rally?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014
Bitcoin Price Strong Move Around the Corner? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
In short: no speculative positions.
Tim Draper, the venture capitalist who bought almost 30,000 bitcoins off the U.S. government during the auction of the coins seized from the black market Silk Road, has shared what made him believe in the cryptocurrency, we read on the Wall Street Journal website:
Read full article... Read full article...One event that inspired venture capitalist Tim Draper to amass a huge stash of bitcoin was the same one that turned other investors away.
Monday, December 01, 2014
Is Bitcoin the Future? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: John_Mauldin
Bitcoin is a topic of discussion almost everywhere I go. My introduction to Bitcoin came when I was speaking at a gold conference in Palm Springs and three bright-eyed, bushy-tailed college students approached me with a video camera and asked for my thoughts on Bitcoin. Noting my confusion, they began to evangelistically espouse the virtues of Bitcoin and tell me how it would save us from the evils of the Federal Reserve. I kept from rolling my eyes (you do want to encourage passion in the young) and mentioned a meeting that I had to go to – at that very moment as it turned out.
Sunday, November 30, 2014
US Dollar Index and Crude Oil Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
US Dollar Index
The US dollar has surged in recent months breaking some obvious resistance levels. This has brought out many calls for an even bigger move up. While this is possible, I suspect a big fake out move is in play. Let's investigate.
Firstly, let's begin with the yearly chart of the US dollar index to help put things in perspective.
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Thursday, November 27, 2014
ECB tentatively edges closer to QE in 2015; more EUR weakness likely / Currencies / Euro
By: MahiFX
The characterisation of Europe as “elderly and haggard” by Pope Francis is an accurate one, but on December 4 the European Central Bank could lay the groundwork to try and revitalise the region's sagging economy.
If was down to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, the Eurozone would already be on the receiving end of a substantial quantitative easing programme and likely the EUR would be even weaker than it is now – but Draghi's time could yet come, as early as December 4th.
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Wednesday, November 26, 2014
EUR/USD – Currency Bulls Don’t Give Up / Currencies / Euro
By: Nadia_Simmons
Earlier today, the Conference Board showed that its index of consumer confidence dropped to 88.7 in November, missing analysts’ expectations for an increase to 95.9. In a response, the U.S. dollar moved lower, which pushed the EUR/USD pair to an important resistance line. Will we see a breakout and further improvement?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
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Monday, November 24, 2014
What Causes the U.S. Dollar to Move? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Understanding the relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold is necessary to successfully invest in gold. However, it is not sufficient, because changes in the USD exchange rates cannot be analyzed outside the economic context: gold, although not officially money, is traded like a currency. Therefore, long-term investors should not analyze the gold market in isolation or confine themselves to observe the U.S. dollar index. The price of gold reflects the complex financial world and hence depends on many factors: the movements of interest rates, inflation or economic growth. The U.S. dollar may rise due to many factors, each time affecting the price of gold in a slightly different way. In other words, if the USD and gold prices have an inverse relationship, then forecasts for gold prices should be prepared while taking into account the expectations of currency movement. To do this, we need to understand the factors driving the greenback.
Monday, November 24, 2014
All Hail the King U.S. Dollar - Trend Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Rambus_Chartology
In part two of this Weekend Report I want to take an indepth look at the US dollar as many of the important currencies of the world all seem to be making important moves right now. If that is true then the US dollar is also in the process of making an important move in the opposite direction.
Below is a long term monthly chart for the US dollar that shows black and white candlesticks. In a strong impulse move down you will see a string of back candles all in a row and in a strong impulse move up you will see a string of white candles all in a row. If the US dollar doesn't crash and burn during this last week of trading for November, it will have completed it sixth month in a row of white candles sticks. This is telling us the breakout move from the massive ten year base is underway and is looking healthy. Remember big bases equals a big move and a small base equals a small move. It's all relative.
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Friday, November 21, 2014
Currency Wars, the Ruble and Keynes / Currencies / Currency War
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The specter of currency wars once again haunts the international chattering classes. Remember back in 2011, when Brazilian finance minister Guido Mantega blamed the U.S. for deliberately weakening the greenback to gain a competitive advantage? Well, now the shoe is on the other foot.
The Yen — an important regional currency — recently sank to a sevenyear low against the now mighty U.S. dollar (USD). This is putting downward pressure on the Korean won and other Asian currencies. The situation is similar in Africa where the Kenyan shilling has hit a three-year low against the USD; the Nigerian naira recently set an all-time low against the dollar; the Ghanaian cedi has shed over 25 percent of its value against the greenback this year. The big Latin American loser is the Venezuelan bolivar, followed by the hopeless Argentine peso. Moving to Europe, Ukraine’s hryvnia has lost over 88 percent of its value against the USD this year, while the Russian ruble has racked up a loss of over 43 percent against the greenback in the same time span. The list could go on, but let’s focus on Russia and the travails of the ruble.
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Friday, November 21, 2014
Paper Money Yielding Madness / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The mainstream investor (with any time and "money" left), wielding an internet connection, and hell bent for yield is about to feel the temperature drop despite a thousand reminders that the cold winter is coming. (Or perhaps not - if you are in South Florida.)
Zero interest policy scorches the planner and the saver, rotting the seed corn while providing fuel for speculation, breeding the trading culture pestilence we see today. Yet again, another tiresome cycle appears. More bubbles to end all bubbles.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Bitcoin Price Did We Just See an Important Slump? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) expressed an opinion it does have authority over Bitcoin, at least as far as investigating any possible price manipulation is concerned, we read on The Wall Street Journal website:
A commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Monday that the agency was authorized to intervene with enforcement actions against price manipulation in bitcoin markets.
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014
How High Could USD/JPY Go? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, official data showed that annualized Japan's gross domestic product dropped by 1.6% in the third quarter, missing economists‘ forecast of a 2.3% growth and following a 7.3% drop in the second quarter, which puts the country in a recession. In these circumstances USD/JPY extended gains and hit a fresh multi-year high of 117.04. How high could the exchange rate go?
Friday, November 14, 2014
Plunging EUR & JPY Could Trigger Regional Currency Wars / Currencies / Currency War
By: MahiFX
The good news about a soaring USD is that it eases global trade tensions as it is the world's main currency. But systematic devaluations of EUR and JPY are another matter and will force neighbouring countries to respond by pushing down the value of their currencies.
Japan and the Eurozone have become like black holes in the global economy desperate to suck in growth from where ever they can find it. Both struggle to grow domestically, suffer deflationary pressures and also want to tap into the greater economic vitality of their neighbours via exports.
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Friday, November 14, 2014
The Return of the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: John_Mauldin
Two years ago, my friend Mohamed El-Erian and I were on the stage at my Strategic Investment Conference. Naturally we were discussing currencies in the global economy, and I asked him about currency wars. He smiled and said to me, “John, we don’t talk about currency wars in polite circles. More like currency disagreements” (or some word to that effect).