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Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Thursday, December 05, 2013

Bitcoin Mania Bubble Bursts, China Triggers Price Crash Start, Technical Forecast / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The bitcoin bubble appears to have burst as a stepped series of price crashes are underway with the price currently standing at 1074 down form 1240 barely a day earlier. A clue to its future direction can be discerned from the unfolding technical price patterns, that just as I wrote wrote in the run up to the peak of the Bitcoin bubble with the price converging on USD 1250 that the market was primed to crash and all it was waiting for was any even marginally negative news to act as trigger for increasing waves of market panics as GREED amongst the bitcoin mania hoarders turns into fear of loss of paper profits.

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Currencies

Thursday, December 05, 2013

Greenspan - I Guess Bitcoin Is A Bubble / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Bloomberg

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Bloomberg Television's Trish Regan and Adam Johnson on "Street Smart" today that "I guess" Bitcoin is a bubble. He said, "the question is I do not understand where the backing of Bitcoin is coming from... Individuals with very high net worth and who have great reputations could create their own currency because people would be willing to exchange their checks with others probably at par. That is not the case with Bitcoin."

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Currencies

Thursday, December 05, 2013

Eschewing Traditional Fundamentals to Understand the Bitcon, Cryptocoin Market / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Keith_Hilden

As Bitcoin and other cryptocoins are gaining interest with Wall Street firms and tech aficionados alike as an asset class and/or emerging currency to get exposure to, there is a need to understand these cryptocurrency markets. However, we are quickly learning as a group that cryptocurrencies are not understood in the same way as traditional asset classes. We are dealing with new market dynamics, and as such we need to adopt new thinking in order to understand the fundamentals and the drivers influencing price and direction in the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets.

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Currencies

Monday, December 02, 2013

GBPUSD Looks For Resistance / Currencies / British Pound

By: Gregor_Horvat

GBPUSD is at the highs, now above wave the trendline connected from 2009 highs but still below 1.6744 which is a triangle invalidation level from a weekly chart. As such, we are still tracking final stages of a red wave E) that could be looking for a top formation in 1.6500-1.6650 region. However, before we may look for end of a current rally we need five waves up in black wave C which is still not the case so be aware of more upside in this week.

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Currencies

Monday, December 02, 2013

A Look at Digital Currency in the Global Monetary System / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Keith_Hilden

We currently find ourselves in quite the economic quandary. Controlling banking interests are seeking  increasingly cashless transaction systems. Various anti-cash legislation actions coupled with a media blitz towards a cashless society acts as supporting material for this shift towards an increasingly digital monetary system. At the same time, a patchwork group of individuals from all walks of life are now using digital currency and payment systems by way of Bitcoin, Paypal, Ripple, and other digital currencies and digital payment systems. While digital currency and payment systems come with their advantages, we see an emerging real concern of account security being compromised in a system of digital currency and payments.

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Currencies

Saturday, November 30, 2013

Are Bitcoin's Better Than Gold? Crypto-Future of Trillion Dollar Digital Trading & Exchange? / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: DK_Matai

The price of one Bitcoin -- a mathematically designed digital crypto-currency -- is now within a stone's throw of the price of a troy ounce of gold at more than USD 1,200 per unit. That marks a gain of over 5,000% from the USD 20 level at which Bitcoin was trading at the start of this year. At that time, not many businesses accepted the digital coins as actual currency. Since then, the currency has seen a boom that rivals the dotcom bubble of the 1990s.

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Currencies

Friday, November 29, 2013

Hyperinflation of The Reserve Currency / Currencies / HyperInflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The recent rise in interest rates, in response to the threat of Fed tapering, foreshadows the unavoidable demise for the dollar. Not only did the rise in rates have an immediate effect on the housing recovery, it also indirectly exposed the system to another vulnerability, that is, the Fed is not only the lender of last resort but will be the lender to the spender of last resort - the US Treasury.

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Currencies

Friday, November 29, 2013

Bitcoin Anonymously Genius / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Pravda

Young digital currency Bitcoin has been gaining popularity rapidly. It is believed that it may even make the US dollar move over as time goes by. However, there is one embarrassing detail: the currency circulates on condition of anonymity, which means that it can be used for criminal purposes. Bitcoin is used in transaction of drug traffickers, casino owners and killers.

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Currencies

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Bitcoins Tulip Mania i-Bubble Claims First Victim / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

UK broadcast media has been full of the story of how a bitcoin miner threw away his hard drive that reportedly contained 7,500 bitcoins that at today's market price would be worth £4.5 million.

The bitcoin miner, James Howells, was shown at the rubbish tip where his hard drive lies buried under tens of metres of compacted refuse, as James ponders that even if he could find the hard drive, would it have survived several months under a wet rotting mountain of waste.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Is Bitcoin, the Digital “Gold Bullion” Worth the Risk? / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: There has been a lot of coverage over the phenomenon that is Bitcoin.

I’m sure many of you are asking yourselves, is this online currency for real? What does it really say about our financial system?

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Currencies

Friday, November 22, 2013

U.S. Dollar Index ETF Trading Strategy / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We all know quantitative easing devalues the Dollar but contrary to that general statement it looks as though we could see the dollar index continue to rise for a few more weeks.

If we analyze the chart of the Dollar ETF (UUP) it is clear that the short term momentum has turned up. The break above the down trend line and recent bounce off support bodes well for the dollar index.

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Currencies

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

USDCAD Forex Analysis – Triangle In Progress / Currencies / Canadian $

By: Gregor_Horvat

USDCAD reversed lower at the end of last week from that trendline connected from July highs, which suggests that rally from 1.0180 was corrective leg. If that is the case then pair could be forming a bigger and complex correction than we firstly thought. We are now observing idea of a triangle with wave E underway back to 1.0300. This will be a final leg in the pattern, so be aware of a bullish period after completed pattern.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

When Will the Japanese Yen be Ready to Fall Again? / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: Submissions

Adam Lemon writes: The biggest story in Forex over the past 12 months – or to put it another way, the most profitable story in Forex over the past 12 months – was the dramatic weakening in both the JPY and the AUD.

Leaving the AUD to one side and focusing on JPY, which is more liquid and at the heart of the story, the narrative went something like this: Japan is in trouble, facing a future with an ageing, shrinking population and a frightened, unproductive younger generation traumatized by years of stagnation. Constitutionally unwilling to countenance mass immigration, Japan has no choice but to try to inflate away its problems by engineering a dramatic depreciation of its currency.

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Currencies

Monday, November 18, 2013

US Dollar Index USD Rally Forecast / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Gregor_Horvat

We believe that USD Index has now turned bullish after recent impulsive rise and breakout out of a downward channel. This breakout is important sign for a change in trend, even if just temporary. Based on a big picture with a triangle, we think that rise from 79.00 is wave D that will unfold in three legs towards 83 maybe even 84.00 region in weeks ahead.

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Currencies

Friday, November 15, 2013

Currency Wars Redux – is USD next? / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Submissions

Who wants a strong currency? If that question was for an opinion poll of finance ministers and central bankers the response would be a firm no. But in reality no poll is needed. The last couple of weeks’ action has spoken louder than words.

Forex traders were once again reminded that when a currency makes strong gains the chances of verbal or monetary intervention are probably not far off. Losses on long positions can swiftly follow. Those long USD should be cautious.

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Currencies

Thursday, November 14, 2013

The One Dollar Euro / Currencies / Euro

By: Andrew_McKillop

NOT A CENT MORE
In the years preceding the introduction of the euro dozens of meetings, conferences, books and PhD theses were focused on what rate against the dollar would be optimal. The favored figure was $1.17 but given today's macroeconomic, fiscal and geopolitical context $1 would suffice. To be sure, when the ECB has to raise interest rates, this may push the euro back up. Conversely, an euro held at an artificially high rate against the dollar can only further intensify Europe's economic slump and deflation crisis, and the directly related “bad bank” crisis.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Why I Sell the U.S. Dollar: From Dollar Strength to Dollar Weakness / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Axel_Merk

Q3 of 2013 marked a peak and reversal of direction for the dollar. The notable strength in the dollar during Q2 turned into an equally prominent weakness in Q3 compared to a basket of foreign currencies. All of the G10 currencies strengthened against the dollar during Q3, while the price of gold rose more than 7%. See attached chart for the performance of the U.S. Dollar Index for the year through 10/31/2013.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Elliott Wave Counts Suggests EUR/USD Heading Lower / Currencies / Euro

By: Gregor_Horvat

The EUR/USD reversed sharply to the downside in the last few days, clearly in five waves from above 1.3800 with a daily and weekly close price beneath the channel line connected from July lows. This break indicates a change in trend, and possible completion of a larger three wave rally in wave E. But, as always we are focused on minimum expectations for the next few days and weeks, and that is a three wave decline from the top which is also expected on the alternate count which shows an incomplete wave E from 2012 low.

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Currencies

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Large Speculators turn Bullish on US Dollar Bets in Forex Futures data / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: CountingPips

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures speculators turned bullish on the US dollar last week after four straight weeks of bearish positions.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $7.02 billion as of Tuesday November 5th. This was a weekly change of $10.17 billion from the total position of $-3.146 billion that was registered on October 29th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

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Currencies

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

British Pound GBP/USD: Weakness Could Resume After Rally to 1.6000 - 1.6050 / Currencies / British Pound

By: Gregor_Horvat

GBP/USD reversed sharply lower last week through 1.6000 with very sharp and aggressive sell off on Thursday, so it seems that decline from 1.6250 is unfolding in five waves. With that said, we suspect that pair will move even lower in this week.

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