Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, November 03, 2013
Large Forex Speculators Were Bearish on US Dollar Into Late October Bottom, COT Report / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: CountingPips
The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures speculators turned bearish on the US dollar on October 8th and then registered three straight weeks of bearish positions through October 22nd.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling $-3.64 billion as of Tuesday October 22nd. This was a weekly change of $-2.4 billion from the total position of $-1.24 billion that was registered on October 15th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
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Saturday, November 02, 2013
U.S. Dollar Surge Implications / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Toby_Connor
A rather interesting development occurred on Friday, and one that I wasn't really expecting. The dollar sliced right through its intermediate trend line on its first attempt. I thought for sure we would see some kind of pullback from that trend line before a break. In my opinion this signals that there are a lot of people caught on the wrong side of this market.
Friday, November 01, 2013
USD-JPY Could Be A Good Buy If US Bonds Will Be Trading Lower / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
On the 5 year US notes we can count five waves up from the lows so sooner or later larger downward pullback will occur in three legs. This means that US yield will should be moving to the upside which is supportive for the USDJPY.
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Wednesday, October 30, 2013
U.S. Dollar Long-term View / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I finally had to look at the monthly chart on the Dollar to get a handle on its position. I identified the Dollar being in a triangle pattern prior to the low in 2011. At that time, I surmised that we were looking at an Intermediate Wave (E). It was an easy mistake to make, since it had escaped the lower trendline as it typical of a Wave (E). However, having turned back at both the top and bottom trendline subsequently gave me pause. Looking at the long-term pattern suggests that the triangle may just be ending now with a second break of the lower trendline for Wave (E).
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Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Why Do Governments Devalue Their Currency Rates? / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Sahil_Hafeez
Currency Devaluation:
Currency devaluation occurs when a country allows the value of its currency to drop in relation to other currencies.
Why do countries let their currency fall in value?
Almost all the countries of the world have devalued their currencies time to time to achieve certain economic objectives. Following are the main objectives of devaluation:
Monday, October 28, 2013
EUR-CAD Retracement Would Be Opportunity To Long Positions / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
Last week EURCAD has been published after very strong EUR against the USD and weak CAD against the same currency. In fact, EURCAD has much better and cleaner structure and EURUSD, so keep an eye on that pair may not be a bad idea. We however need some deeper retracement before we may look for any long entry. I will keep an eye on three wave retracement which is normally a, b, c, back to base channel line. If we get it then we will look for an opportunity to take long positions on EURCAD.
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Sunday, October 27, 2013
Large Forex Speculators Cut US Dollar Bullish Bets to 7-month Low / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Submissions
CountingPips writes: The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, not published for close to a month due to the partial US government shutdown, was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures traders & speculators continued to decrease their bullish bets of the US dollar for a third week in a row on October 1st.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, cut their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $692.8 million as of Tuesday October 1st. This was a decline of $-2.89 billion from the total long position of $3.58 billion that was registered on September 24th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
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Thursday, October 24, 2013
GBP's Outlook Still Bright, but Beware Lurking Gremlins / Currencies / British Pound
By: Submissions
Justin Pugsley writes: Amongst a number of weaknesses such as a huge current account deficit the UK also has an inflation problem, which will eventually take its toll on GBP. For the time being at least a robust real estate market and recovering economy will be strongly supportive of Sterling.
The UK has long had an inflation prone economy. Today is no different. Consider the UK has an inflation rate of 2.7%. That's low by historical standards, but very high compared with its trading partners. And relative is important. Because in the US it is 1.5%, the Eurozone 1.1% and Japan 0.8%. That means GBP is losing its purchasing power at a faster rate than most of its trading partners meaning that in the long run it is a negative for the UK currency.
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Tuesday, October 22, 2013
How Long Until the U.S. Dollar Loses Its Reserve Currency Status? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: DailyGainsLetter
Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: As Congress has come to a decision about the debt ceiling and kicked the can a few months down the road, I hear a significant amount of noise about the U.S. dollar losing its reserve currency status.
With this, I ask: could this really happen anytime soon?
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Monday, October 21, 2013
EUR/USD: Looking For Bullish Opportunities Within Accelerating Price / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
EUR/USD accelerated to the upside in the last few weeks and touched 1.3700 few days back which means that pair is trading extremely close to January high so it seems that rally from 2012 low is still unfolding. We are tracking an updated which shows a completed running triangle in wave (B) followed by a recent push out of the pattern that is now pointing higher, for a five wave rise in wave (C) towards and above 1.4000.
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Friday, October 18, 2013
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By: GoldSilver
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Thursday, October 17, 2013
GBPUSD Looking Bearish Against 1.6260 Elliott Wave Forecast / Currencies / British Pound
By: Gregor_Horvat
GBPUSD is very slow and choppy above 1.5900 level so we think that move from the latest low is corrective, therefore we think that recovery is temporary. In fact we labeled a decline from 1.6260 with five waves down which is evidence of a bearish price action, marked as wave (a) or (i). In both cases we expect a third leg lower once corrective wave (b) or (ii) will complete a retracement. Ideally this will occur somewhere between 38.2-61.8% retracement area compared to previous decline. In that region we also have a parallel trend line connected from 1.6161 swing that could also react as a resistance level. With that said traders should be aware of a bearish waves in the next few days. This view remains valid as long as price trades beneath 1.6260 high.
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Saturday, October 12, 2013
How Much Longer Will the Dollar be the Reserve Currency? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes:
We use the term “reserve currency” when referring to the common use of the dollar by other countries when settling their international trade accounts. For example, if Canada buys goods from China, it may pay China in US dollars rather than Canadian dollars, and vice versa. However, the foundation from which the term originated no longer exists, and today the dollar is called a “reserve currency” simply because foreign countries hold it in great quantity to facilitate trade.
Thursday, October 10, 2013
Rally For USD/JPY While 10 Year US Treasuries Move Lower / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
US Bonds were trading lower in the last two sessions after the minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that most policymakers still favor a tapering program this year. But sell-off on bonds came on news that QE could end in mid-2014. USD was firstly down on the news, but then it recovered during the Asian trading hour. However, EUR/USD is again finding some bid, so no real direction at the moment. Meanwhile the S&P Futures are rallying.
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Wednesday, October 09, 2013
Fiat Paper Currencies are NOT Gold! / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: DeviantInvestor
Paper currencies seem normal. They seem natural. We are told they are necessary. Paper currencies with no intrinsic value are used everywhere - we pretend they are valuable. If we don't look closely, or remember the world of 60 years ago, they seem like a good idea.
Monopoly money. Euros. Dollars. What is the essential difference? Paper, with no intrinsic value, is accepted only because we have confidence in the issuer of the currency and/or because we have no other choice. Monopoly money can buy hotels on Park Place. Unbacked paper dollars can buy hotels in Manhattan. The hundreds of unbacked paper currencies that have become worthless during the last century can buy NOTHING.
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Monday, October 07, 2013
Japanese Yen USD Elliott Wave Forecast : Bullish Reversal Could Be Near By / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Gregor_Horvat
USDJPY did not accelerate to the upside yet, so it seems that we will have to wait on a bullish price action a little longer, As such, we adjusted the wave count and suspect that pair is in final stages of a wave (4) now. We however are still observing a triangle that should be near completion. We see wave E) down that could look for a bottom around 97.00 area from where we could reverse up in wave (5). An impulsive rally from current zone would be a confirmation for a new bullish period on USDJPY.
Friday, October 04, 2013
Syrian Pound Soars, Iran’s Single Digit Inflation, and Other Troubled Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Syria: On September 27th, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution outlining the details of the turn over and dismantlement of Syria’s chemical weapons. Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, has stated that his government will abide by last week’s UN resolution calling for the country’s chemical weapons to be destroyed.
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Thursday, October 03, 2013
Euro's October Seasonals and Gold Shutdown / Currencies / Euro
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Euro rallies across the board on breaking political and monetary news as:
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Italian PM Letta wins a confidence vote in the Senate following Berlusconi's U-turn to support the incumbent government after 25 dissidents from his party gave Letta's government the numbers he needed for maintaining majority.
Tuesday, October 01, 2013
Room For More U.S. Dollar Weakness After The Government Shutdown / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gregor_Horvat
USD is sharply down across the board after the US government shutdown. Some would think that US stocks futures will turn lower, but we in fact can see higher prices since the news came out. However, we may see a risk aversion (lower stocks) if government will be shutdown for too long, lets say around 3 weeks. In the past the longest close was 21 days, back in 1995 (source Wikipedia). The longer the shutdown will last, more nervous investors will become.
Monday, September 30, 2013
EURUSD: Bullish Contracting Triangle In Progress / Currencies / Euro
By: Gregor_Horvat
EURUSD accelerated to the upside in the last few hours from the lower side of a trading range. As such, with the latest time we see triangle as the best labeling in wave four, but we still need wave (e) before pattern is complete. Ideal support zone for end of wave (e) comes in at 1.3490-1.3510 region. If we are correct then we will see more impulsive ride on Euro in this week.