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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Monday, November 04, 2013

USD Index and US Treasury Notes Suggest More EUR Weakness / Currencies / Euro

By: Gregor_Horvat

A sharp reversal from the highs could be an early sign for a bearish trend on EURUSD which sooner or later will occur if we consider that rally from 1.2050 low is corrective. A decline from 1.3832 made last week looks impulsive so based on minimum expectations EURUSD will now move down in three legs, but ideally this is a start of a significant EUR weakness in impulsive fashion.

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Currencies

Sunday, November 03, 2013

Large Forex Speculators Were Bearish on US Dollar Into Late October Bottom, COT Report / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: CountingPips

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures speculators turned bearish on the US dollar on October 8th and then registered three straight weeks of bearish positions through October 22nd.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling $-3.64 billion as of Tuesday October 22nd. This was a weekly change of $-2.4 billion from the total position of $-1.24 billion that was registered on October 15th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

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Currencies

Saturday, November 02, 2013

U.S. Dollar Surge Implications / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Toby_Connor

A rather interesting development occurred on Friday, and one that I wasn't really expecting. The dollar sliced right through its intermediate trend line on its first attempt. I thought for sure we would see some kind of pullback from that trend line before a break. In my opinion this signals that there are a lot of people caught on the wrong side of this market.

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Currencies

Friday, November 01, 2013

USD-JPY Could Be A Good Buy If US Bonds Will Be Trading Lower / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: Gregor_Horvat

On the 5 year US notes we can count five waves up from the lows so sooner or later larger downward pullback will occur in three legs. This means that US yield will should be moving to the upside which is supportive for the USDJPY.

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Currencies

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

U.S. Dollar Long-term View / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

I finally had to look at the monthly chart on the Dollar to get a handle on its position.  I identified the Dollar being in a triangle pattern prior to the low in 2011.  At that time, I surmised that we were looking at an Intermediate Wave (E).  It was an easy mistake to make, since it had escaped the lower trendline as it typical of a Wave (E).  However, having turned back at both the top and bottom trendline subsequently gave me pause.  Looking at the long-term pattern suggests that the triangle may just be ending now with a second break of the lower trendline for Wave (E). 

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Currencies

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Why Do Governments Devalue Their Currency Rates? / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Sahil_Hafeez

Currency Devaluation:
Currency devaluation occurs when a country allows the value of its currency to drop in relation to other currencies.

Why do countries let their currency fall in value?
Almost all the countries of the world have devalued their currencies time to time to achieve certain economic objectives. Following are the main objectives of devaluation:

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Currencies

Monday, October 28, 2013

EUR-CAD Retracement Would Be Opportunity To Long Positions / Currencies / Euro

By: Gregor_Horvat

Last week EURCAD has been published after very strong EUR against the USD and weak CAD against the same currency. In fact, EURCAD has much better and cleaner structure and EURUSD, so keep an eye on that pair may not be a bad idea. We however need some deeper retracement before we may look for any long entry. I will keep an eye on three wave retracement which is normally a, b, c, back to base channel line. If we get it then we will look for an opportunity to take long positions on EURCAD.

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Currencies

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Large Forex Speculators Cut US Dollar Bullish Bets to 7-month Low / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Submissions

CountingPips writes: The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, not published for close to a month due to the partial US government shutdown, was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures traders & speculators continued to decrease their bullish bets of the US dollar for a third week in a row on October 1st.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, cut their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $692.8 million as of Tuesday October 1st. This was a decline of $-2.89 billion from the total long position of $3.58 billion that was registered on September 24th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

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Currencies

Thursday, October 24, 2013

GBP's Outlook Still Bright, but Beware Lurking Gremlins / Currencies / British Pound

By: Submissions

Justin Pugsley writes: Amongst a number of weaknesses such as a huge current account deficit the UK also has an inflation problem, which will eventually take its toll on GBP. For the time being at least a robust real estate market and recovering economy will be strongly supportive of Sterling.

The UK has long had an inflation prone economy. Today is no different. Consider the UK has an inflation rate of 2.7%. That's low by historical standards, but very high compared with its trading partners. And relative is important. Because in the US it is 1.5%, the Eurozone 1.1% and Japan 0.8%. That means GBP is losing its purchasing power at a faster rate than most of its trading partners meaning that in the long run it is a negative for the UK currency.

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Currencies

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

How Long Until the U.S. Dollar Loses Its Reserve Currency Status? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: As Congress has come to a decision about the debt ceiling and kicked the can a few months down the road, I hear a significant amount of noise about the U.S. dollar losing its reserve currency status.

With this, I ask: could this really happen anytime soon?

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Currencies

Monday, October 21, 2013

EUR/USD: Looking For Bullish Opportunities Within Accelerating Price / Currencies / Euro

By: Gregor_Horvat

EUR/USD accelerated to the upside in the last few weeks and touched 1.3700 few days back which means that pair is trading extremely close to January high so it seems that rally from 2012 low is still unfolding. We are tracking an updated which shows a completed running triangle in wave (B) followed by a recent push out of the pattern that is now pointing higher, for a five wave rise in wave (C) towards and above 1.4000.

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Currencies

Friday, October 18, 2013

The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind - Hidden Secrets of Money Video / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: GoldSilver

You are about to learn one of the biggest secrets in the history of the world... it's a secret that has huge effects for everyone who lives on this planet. Most people can feel deep down that something isn't quite right with the world economy, but few know what it is.

Gone are the days where a family can survive on just one paycheck... every day it seems that things are more and more out of control, yet only one in a million understand why. You are about to discover the system that is ultimately responsible for most of the inequality in our world today.

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Currencies

Thursday, October 17, 2013

GBPUSD Looking Bearish Against 1.6260 Elliott Wave Forecast / Currencies / British Pound

By: Gregor_Horvat

GBPUSD is very slow and choppy above 1.5900 level so we think that move from the latest low is corrective, therefore we think that recovery is temporary. In fact we labeled a decline from 1.6260 with five waves down which is evidence of a bearish price action, marked as wave (a) or (i). In both cases we expect a third leg lower once corrective wave (b) or (ii) will complete a retracement. Ideally this will occur somewhere between 38.2-61.8% retracement area compared to previous decline. In that region we also have a parallel trend line connected from 1.6161 swing that could also react as a resistance level. With that said traders should be aware of a bearish waves in the next few days. This view remains valid as long as price trades beneath 1.6260 high.

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Currencies

Saturday, October 12, 2013

How Much Longer Will the Dollar be the Reserve Currency? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: MISES

Patrick Barron writes: We use the term “reserve currency” when referring to the common use of the dollar by other countries when settling their international trade accounts. For example, if Canada buys goods from China, it may pay China in US dollars rather than Canadian dollars, and vice versa. However, the foundation from which the term originated no longer exists, and today the dollar is called a “reserve currency” simply because foreign countries hold it in great quantity to facilitate trade.

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Currencies

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Rally For USD/JPY While 10 Year US Treasuries Move Lower / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: Gregor_Horvat

US Bonds were trading lower in the last two sessions after the minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that most policymakers still favor a tapering program this year. But sell-off on bonds came on news that QE could end in mid-2014. USD was firstly down on the news, but then it recovered during the Asian trading hour. However, EUR/USD is again finding some bid, so no real direction at the moment. Meanwhile the S&P Futures are rallying.

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Currencies

Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Fiat Paper Currencies are NOT Gold! / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: DeviantInvestor

Paper currencies seem normal. They seem natural. We are told they are necessary. Paper currencies with no intrinsic value are used everywhere - we pretend they are valuable. If we don't look closely, or remember the world of 60 years ago, they seem like a good idea.

Monopoly money. Euros. Dollars. What is the essential difference? Paper, with no intrinsic value, is accepted only because we have confidence in the issuer of the currency and/or because we have no other choice. Monopoly money can buy hotels on Park Place. Unbacked paper dollars can buy hotels in Manhattan. The hundreds of unbacked paper currencies that have become worthless during the last century can buy NOTHING.

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Currencies

Monday, October 07, 2013

Japanese Yen USD Elliott Wave Forecast : Bullish Reversal Could Be Near By / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: Gregor_Horvat

USDJPY did not accelerate to the upside yet, so it seems that we will have to wait on a bullish price action a little longer, As such, we adjusted the wave count and suspect that pair is in final stages of a wave (4) now. We however are still observing a triangle that should be near completion. We see wave E) down that could look for a bottom around 97.00 area from where we could reverse up in wave (5). An impulsive rally from current zone would be a confirmation for a new bullish period on USDJPY.

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Currencies

Friday, October 04, 2013

Syrian Pound Soars, Iran’s Single Digit Inflation, and Other Troubled Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Syria: On September 27th, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution outlining the details of the turn over and dismantlement of Syria’s chemical weapons. Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, has stated that his government will abide by last week’s UN resolution calling for the country’s chemical weapons to be destroyed.

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Currencies

Thursday, October 03, 2013

Euro's October Seasonals and Gold Shutdown / Currencies / Euro

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Euro rallies across the board on breaking political and monetary news as:

  • Italian PM Letta wins a confidence vote in the Senate following Berlusconi's U-turn to support the incumbent government after 25 dissidents from his party gave Letta's government the numbers he needed for maintaining majority.

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Currencies

Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Room For More U.S. Dollar Weakness After The Government Shutdown / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Gregor_Horvat

USD is sharply down across the board after the US government shutdown. Some would think that US stocks futures will turn lower, but we in fact can see higher prices since the news came out. However, we may see a risk aversion (lower stocks) if government will be shutdown for too long, lets say around 3 weeks. In the past the longest close was 21 days, back in 1995 (source Wikipedia). The longer the shutdown will last, more nervous investors will become.

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