Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, July 06, 2009
Fiat Currencies Race To Zero Acceleration A Certainty / Currencies / Fiat Currency
Just when you think you have it figured out – bang – something changes. And present circumstances are no exception to this rule. Last week it appeared conditions were forming to sponsor a significant sell-off in stocks / equities this summer / fall, where a combination of sentiment and internals were moving into alignment in this regard. Not out of character in a mature market environment however, speculators stepped up put buying at expiry late last week, which has materially altered the sentiment backdrop, and correspondingly the prognosis for stocks moving forward.
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Monday, July 06, 2009
EUR/USD Heading Higher? / Currencies / Forex Trading
Bias for today is higher, but a narrowing range after the steep decline near the end of last week could mean a break in either direction.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 05, 2009
Fiat Money in Death Throes / Currencies / Fiat Currency
"Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. The Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create deposits, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take away that power, and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear -- as they ought to in order to make this a happier and better world to live in. But, if you wish to remain the slaves of Bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let them continue to create deposits." ~ Sir Josiah Stamp (1880-1941), one time governor of the Bank of England, in his Commencement Address at the University of Texas in 1927. Reportedly he was the second wealthiest individual in Britain.
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Friday, July 03, 2009
Japanese Yen: Resumption of the Bull Market ? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
Until the middle of 2007, the Japanese Yen was notoriously weak, as the selling of this low yielding currency was funding the purchase of higher yielding currencies, ranging from the British Pound to the Australian and New Zealand Dollar and many emerging market currencies. The so-called carry trade yielded investors the interest rate difference between what they paid for borrowing Yen, and what they earned for the investment in high-yield currencies, ie between 3 and 10 percent annually. And since the carry trade was mostly done at a high leverage, the carry trade became a fantastic cash-cow during the days of easy money and complacency.
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Friday, July 03, 2009
Temporary Bounce in EUR/GBP Now Possible / Currencies / Forex Trading
A few weeks ago a long term 38.2% support in EUR/GBP was violated, adding weight to the medium term bearish argument that we have been favouring. However, without this view being threatened, there is a decent chance for a shorter term bounce, subject to a certain resistance yielding.
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Wednesday, July 01, 2009
EUR/USD for July 1 / Currencies / Forex Trading
The pair is currently in a 55 pip range. A sustained break above 1.4055 would indicate a target of 1.4110 and beyond that 1.4150.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 29, 2009
Green Shoots Recovery Forex Markets Fatigue & Intermarket Setup / Currencies / Forex Trading
There are more substantive fundamental and technical grounds that the recent pullback in equities and global bond yields will extend throughout Q3 to the benefit of the US dollar, which will likely stabilize, rather than wage a rally such as in H2 2008. Current explanations for a stronger dollar in H2 based on US recovery preceding rest-of-world are off the mark. The past 7 years have proven that each time US data emerged on the stronger side, global bourses pushed higher-at the expense of the greenback. While we back the notion for a stronger USD in Q3, our rationale is based on the following:
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Friday, June 26, 2009
U.S. Stocks, Dollar Decline on China Calls for World Currency / Currencies / US Dollar
The People’s Bank of China report is very significant news for the international monetary system and for the gold market. Their call for a new global reserve currency or super sovereign currency will likely lead to further pressure on the dollar. Despite gold having risen and then fallen in value today, the news is another bullish factor supporting higher gold prices in the medium term.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Contraction in Economy Slowing Creates Bullishness for U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
The Fed ended much of the uncertainty in the Forex markets today when it announced that its key lending rate would stay between 0 - .25%, and there would be no additional expansion of its balance sheet through the purchases of government assets and mortgages.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 25, 2009
EUR/CHF Springs to Life from Key 1.5000 Support / Currencies / Forex Trading
In recent weeks EUR/CHF price action has been lacklustre, an earlier bull signal looking to be premature. But underwater s/term bulls, having sailed close to the wind just above 1.5000 key support for a while now, have abruptly changed tack, with a course set for higher once more.
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Thursday, June 25, 2009
What’s Wrong with the British Pound? / Currencies / British Pound
The Macro Trader’s view:
After a solid rally away from the lows stretching over 3 months, much of June has been characterized by sideways trading. Cable seems to have has lost its way.
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Thursday, June 25, 2009
Forex Trading Cross Pairs Trend Analysis / Currencies / Forex Trading
Last week I showed you how to analyze 13 forex cross-rates in less than 11 minutes. I thought it would be fun to go back and look at how this very quick analysis turned out.
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Thursday, June 25, 2009
Fiat Currency in Circulation, How Much Money is There? / Currencies / Money Supply
There are several different monetary aggregates used to measure a nation's money supply. These monetary aggregates can be thought of as forming a continuum from most liquid (money as a means of exchange) to the least liquid (money as a store of value).
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Thursday, June 25, 2009
EUR/USD Bounces / Currencies / Forex Trading
The pair fell over 200 pips yesterday but ultimately was stopped by the 1.3900 area and has since bounced higher. This keeps the bias upwards for today, but more news out of the US could make for a volatile day.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
EUR/USD - After the Surge / Currencies / Forex Trading
Yesterday saw a very strong move by the EURO, moving almost double its average (12) daily range. It also broke multiple short term resistance levels.With more news out of the US today, it could be another volatile day.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
How to Profit From the Global Currency Wars / Currencies / Forex Trading
Chris Weber writes: When rumors of the Swiss central bank again intervening to drive down the value of the Swiss franc hit the world’s currency trading desks late last week, it underscored just how hard global governments are fighting against the strong currencies that can derail exports while also blunting consumer demand at home.
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Tuesday, June 23, 2009
EUR/USD Choppy Trading / Currencies / Forex Trading
Support is established at 1.3830 and is also present at 1.3820 through 1.3800. This likely means the sideways swings will continue. Although minor trends within the broader range can still occur.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 22, 2009
EUR/USD Continues to Range / Currencies / Forex Trading
The pair is trading within a 120 pip range between 1.4000 and 1.3800 over the last couple trading days. This range has held in early trading. 1.3880 is initial support. A move below 1.3860 would confirm that break.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Why “BRIC” Posturing Against the U.S. Dollar Just Doesn’t Add Up / Currencies / US Dollar
Bryan Rich writes: The dollar has been publicly attacked on many fronts over the past three months. And endless accusations have been made that the U.S. is purposely trying to devalue the dollar to lessen its growing debt burden.
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Saturday, June 20, 2009
Very Dangerous Time For Dollar Index / Currencies / US Dollar
I don't want to get into the prediction game or even be the first one to say, "I told you so", but I believe the Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY) has a very high likelihood of embarking on a major down swing in the coming weeks.
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