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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Friday, July 28, 2017

Fed Quantitative Tightening Bearish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Zeal_LLC

Ominously for the stock markets, the Federal Reserve is warning that quantitative tightening is coming later this year.  The Fed is on the verge of starting to drain its vast seas of new money conjured out of thin air over the past decade or so.  The looming end of this radically-unprecedented easy-money era is exceedingly bearish for these lofty stock markets, which have been grossly inflated for years by Fed QE.

Way back in December 2008, the first US stock panic in an entire century left the Fed frantic.  Fearful of an extreme negative wealth effect spawning another depression, the Fed quickly forced its benchmark federal-funds rate to zero.  Once that zero-interest-rate policy had been implemented, no more rate cuts were practical.  ZIRP is terribly disruptive economically, fueling huge distortions.  But negative rates are far worse.

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Economics

Friday, July 28, 2017

BEA US Economy Q2 2017 Estimates GDP Growth At 2.56% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2017, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economy was growing at a +2.56% annual rate, up +1.14% from a downward revised first quarter.

Consumer spending rebounded, growing at a +1.93% annualized rate during the quarter, up +1.18% from the prior quarter and very similar to the fourth quarter of 2016. The inventory contraction of the prior quarter essentially disappeared (-0.02%), as did the previous robust growth in commercial fixed investment (at only +0.36%). Governmental spending rose slightly (+0.12%), reversing the prior quarter's contraction, and the growth rates for both exports (+0.48%) and imports (-0.31%) moderated.

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Commodities

Friday, July 28, 2017

Platinum and Palladium Investment Potential / Commodities / Platinum

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the previous sections of this edition of the Market Overview, we presented the demand and supply outlook for platinum and palladium. In that part, we would like to analyze the potential benefits of adding these precious metals into investment portfolio.

On the surface, platinum and palladium behave similarly to the yellow metal. Indeed, as the chart below shows, there is an important positive correlation between prices of these metals and gold. It should not be surprising as all four main precious metals – gold, silver, platinum, and palladium – are considered as currency, with an appropriate ISO 4217 code.

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Politics

Friday, July 28, 2017

Why Russia’s Slumping Grain Yields Are So Bad For Putin / Politics / Russia

By: John_Mauldin

By Geopolitical Futures : Russia relies on wheat more than any other foodstuff as an important component of its food supply. In fact, roughly 70% of wheat produced in Russia annually is consumed domestically. From Siberia to the westernmost regions bordering Europe, wheat is a staple in most parts of the country.

In 2016, Russia became the world’s top grain exporter with a record production of 120 million tons of wheat, according to Russian statistics agency Rosstat. But poor weather conditions have affected this year’s production.

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Economics

Friday, July 28, 2017

One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Likely Trigger A Global Recession By End Of 2018 / Economics / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

Exactly 10 years ago, we were months way from a world-shaking financial crisis.

By late 2006, we had an inverted yield curve steep to be a high-probability indicator of recession. I estimated at that time that the losses would be $400 billion at a minimum. Yet, most of my readers and fellow analysts told me I was way too bearish.

Turned out the losses topped well over $2 trillion and triggered the financial crisis and Great Recession.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 28, 2017

Could USD/JPY go into Freefall? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are down, but have not exceeded yesterday’s intraday low.

Today being Friday, there may be an effort to keep the decline from going too low. That suggests a probable bounce at Short-term support at 2457.17 to rally back to breakeven by the end of the day. Should this take place, it may offer another short entry opportunity by the end of the day. But this is only one outcome out of several possible scenarios. A second scenario may be an immediate launch into a Wave three scenario with a minimum 8-12% decline in the next three days. Yesterday may have been day one of a 4.3-day panic Cycle.

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Currencies

Friday, July 28, 2017

Will USD/CAD Drop Further? / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Nadia_Simmons

Yesterday, the greenback extended losses against the Canadian dollar, which resulted in a drop below the May 2016 low. Does it mean that the way to lower levels is open?

EUR/USD

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 28, 2017

Stock Market XIV Starting To Crack And The VIX Ends Its Streak / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Submissions

Mike Golembesky: Recent Price Action

This week the XIV continued to grind higher finally reaching a high of 96.98 on Wednesday afternoon. This high was followed by a very small move to the downside late in the day on Wednesday.

Thursday morning saw a slight recovery but by the noon lunch hour, the XIV started showing signs of weakness. By 12:30 the XIV began to move sharply lower finally bottoming at the 89.28 level, some 7.5% off of the high of the day.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 28, 2017

Euro Bearish, Stocks Topping, Gold Bullish Interpretation / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave
Long term wave count: lower in wave (3) red
Important risk events: EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m. USD: Advance GDP q/q, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.

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Commodities

Friday, July 28, 2017

Sugar Commodity Investors: "Desperately Seeking..." Clarity and Objectivity / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI


Congratulations, Elliott wave analysis is your ideal match

Over the last two years, sugar futures have crashed and spiked and crashed again -- much like a diabetic without insulin.

After plummeting to an 8-year low in September 2015, sugar prices then doubled in a stunning rally to a 4-year high in September 2016, only to turn back down in a 40% sell-off to19-month lows in late June 2017, where they linger to this day.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 28, 2017

Short the Bounces in Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX is giving an aggressive sell signal. Not much more to say. Take the usual precautions.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 27, 2017

When You Think It Can’t Get Worse, The Markets Become Even More Absurd / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : The market is up 2% since I called the top a month ago.

Financial newsletters are now stuffed with bubble porn—their favorite subject is complaining about how overpriced everything is. As a financial writer, it’s tough to stay fresh when that’s all there is to talk about.

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Currencies

Thursday, July 27, 2017

US Dollar - Make Way For Uncle Buck / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Gary_Tanashian

It has been a contrarian trade that has not yet worked out; by that I mean my short position on the Euro and preparation for a firming US dollar. Yesterday the market cheered the supposedly dovish Fed, and USD got smeared again as the world’s counter party paper boosted assets far and wide… on nothing but perceptions and a hell of a lot of momentum and gaming on FOMC day.

USD opened weak again today but so far at least, is sporting a Hammer which, if it stays in play, would be a bullish reversal candle.

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Politics

Thursday, July 27, 2017

China May Not Have Stopped North Korea’s Nuclear Program Deliberately / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The United States and China met to discuss trade issues.

The meeting ended without agreement on anything. The obligatory joint press conference after the talks, where everyone pretends that everything was fine, was canceled.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Stock Market Levitation Continues... For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

A closer look at the SPX shows that one more probe higher completes the Wave pattern. This morning’s SPX futures may have done the job already, but we await the open to see the result in the cash Index. There is a possible target where Wave v equals Wave I at 2492.42.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Gold Cycle Outlook : Cautiously Bullish / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: SurfCity

I am cautiously bullish with today’s new high in Gold and GDX on day 13. Silver also made a new high on day 12 but is still lagging Gold out of the recent low. Note that I have used GLD and SLV in my charts today as the price prints for Gold and Silver on Stockcharts were bogus once again.

Why cautiously bullish? During the long Bear from the secondary high in 2012, almost every Failed Gold Trading Cycle topped on day 10 or earlier. There were a couple that topped on day 11 and one on day 12 as I recall but day 12 was the longest uptrend we saw into a failed Trading Cycle. That said, I am still cautious as my charts will show that PM’s still have much work to do to break out of this sideways pattern that they have been in for much of 2017.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Is Big Oil planning its Funeral by ignoring the obvious? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Sol_Palha

Many of the reports published that cover oil consumption and how quickly consumers will embrace Electric Vehicles (EV) paint a far rosier outlook for the future of oil than the facts dictate. The reason is simple; most of these reports tend to be written or sponsored by big oil and so they tend to be biased.  We are not stating that this is the end of oil, but its glory days are probably behind it.  One thing is obvious; the peak oil theory experts are and were always full of rubbish. In fact, we penned several articles over the years covering this issue the latest of which was titled “peak oil debunked”.
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Commodities

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Will Crude Oil Extend Gains? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Tuesday, crude oil extended gains and hit a fresh July high, but will we see further rally in the coming days?

Crude Oil’s Technical Picture

Let’s take a closer look at the charts and find out (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Commodities

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Gold and Oil - 3 charts, 3 forecasts, in 7 fast minutes / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: EWI

See just how much you can learn from three simple charts.

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Currencies

Thursday, July 27, 2017

The Fed May Influence the Bounce in USD / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

USD futures remain flat at this time. However, it may have reached its Head & Shoulders target and Master Cycle low today. The Fed action may have some influence on the bounce, since it is ready to do so.

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