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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Politics

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Congress Is Hopeless Against Trump’s Plans To Impose Trade Sanctions / Politics / US Politics

By: John_Mauldin

Trade is the global economy’s bloodstream. The more freely it flows, the better for all.

As David Ricardo explained 200 years ago, different peoples have unique characteristics that enable them to produce certain goods at lower opportunity costs than others can. Free trade gives consumers access to the best goods and services at the lowest prices.

However, what we now call “free trade” is not what Ricardo had in mind. We have instead managed trade designed to benefit certain favored parties and to disadvantage others.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: GoldCore

– Easy credit offered by UK banks is endangering “everyone else in the economy”
– UK banks are “dicing with the spiral of complacency” again
– Bank of England official believes household debt is good in moderation
– Household debt now equals 135% of household income
– Now costs half of average income to raise a child
– Real incomes not keeping up with real inflation
– 41% of those in debt are in full-time work
– £1.537 trillion owed by the end of May 2017

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Reconciling the US Dollar Outlook with the Super Bullish Gold and Silver COTs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts the U.S. dollar and expects it to trade sideways for a while before continuing its downward trend.

Because the dollar has such an important bearing on everything, especially the Precious Metals, it is timely for us to take a close look at it here after its recent steep drop, for as some of you may have seen, a number of indicators pertaining to the dollar suggest that, possibly after some further downside it is likely to bounce, or at least take a rest in a sideways range for a while, before the decline perhaps resumes in earnest.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Mr. Trump: You May Not Want To Take Credit For The Stock Market Just Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

Stock market is still bullish

If you have followed my analysis through the years, you would know that I have correctly been steadfastly bullish the stock market for quite some time. In fact, I was one of the very few who expected the market to rocket higher even after Donald Trump won the election last year.

And, now, we are approaching the S&P 500 target in the 2500SPX region we expected to strike in 2017. However, just because the market has rallied strongly after the election as we expected, it does not mean we expect it to continue into the next election season. And, let me explain why that is so important.

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Currencies

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Money Is Money, Wherever It Comes From / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Raul_I_Meijer

One of the crucial things to understand about today’s world is that money is fungible. Whether it’s created in Japan, Europe, China or the US, once it’s tossed by a central bank into one or another part of the global economy, it eventually finds its way to a common pool of liquidity.

So the modest US tightening of the past year (100 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate, slight decrease in Fed balance sheet) has to be seen in a global context. And that context is still insanely easy. Here, for instance, is China’s “social financing” – their term for total new debt:

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Currencies

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bitcoin Price Close to All-time High / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

The recent surge in Bitcoin is associated with the technical details of the currency and an agreement which avoids a fork for the time being. In an article on Business Insider, we read:

Bitcoin has recovered somewhat from the drop in value seen last Sunday, with the price of the cryptocurrency reaching $2,701 at the time of this writing.

The stabilization seems to be the result of Bitcoin miners reaching an agreement on the enactment of the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal.
This agreement means the avoidance of a user-activated softfork (UASF), the possibility of which caused significant unease among investors.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Last Week’s Rally in Gold Stocks Erased / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold, silver and the USD Index didn’t do much in yesterday’s trading, but that was not the case with mining stocks. The divergence between gold stocks and gold was particularly visible and the implications are once again particularly important.

Let’s take a look at the charts, starting with the HUI Index(gold stock chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Dollar, Bitcoin, Markets - Is There A New Flight To Safety? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The dollar has been taken beating on ‘false promises’ of any major fiscal reform from the Trump administration.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Central Banks ARE The Crisis / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Raul_I_Meijer

If there’s one myth -and there are many- that we should invalidate in the cross-over world of politics and economics, it‘s that central banks have saved us from a financial crisis. It’s a carefully construed myth, but it’s as false as can be. Our central banks have caused our financial crises, not saved us from them.

It really should -but doesn’t- make us cringe uncontrollably to see Bank of England governor-for-hire Mark Carney announce -straightfaced- that:

“A decade after the start of the global financial crisis, G20 reforms are building a safer, simpler and fairer financial system. “We have fixed the issues that caused the last crisis. They were fundamental and deep-seated, which is why it was such a major job.”

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Politics

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Iran: Public Image Versus Historical Reality - Part 1: An Abridged History to the 20th Century / Politics / Iran

By: Raymond_Matison

Part I, traces historical events which have shaped Iran’s evolution and development from its great Persian empire of over two thousand years ago to those taking place in the 20th century.

Over the last several decades Iran has been labeled by the United States a terrorist state, a state that needs to be restricted or otherwise controlled.  Consequently, Iran has been under frequent, broad and severe sanctions over the last several decades, whereby it was impeded from selling its oil to generate revenues, and foreclosed to use the SWIFT system of international money transfer.  It is a state, according to the international community, which cannot be permitted to develop nuclear arms.  President George W. Bush identified Iran as part of a global axis of evil.  More recently President Trump has noted on his recent trip to the Middle East that Iran “is the biggest sponsor of terrorism, and that Iran must never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon”.  He called on “all nations of conscience to isolate Iran”.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Trump Fails To Understand One Critical Thing—Our Trade Partners Have Options, Too / Economics / Protectionism

By: John_Mauldin

Despite heavy opposition, Trump is more insistent than ever on imposing quotas or tariffs on steel imports.

However, it makes a big difference whether the administration decides to go with quotas on current steel imports or initiate a tariff. Quotas would be harmful, but a tariff would be far worse.

Let’s look at the numbers to see who exactly would actually be damaged.

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Politics

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Trump’s “America First” Trade Frictions Are About to Begin / Politics / US Politics

By: Dan_Steinbock

After the US-Sino Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, trade issues are alienating not only China and America’s NATO allies – but its NAFTA partners, Canada and Mexico.

As the Trump administration’s first US-Sino Comprehensive Economic Dialogue (CED) ended in Washington, it could only agree on three no’s: canceled news conferences, no joint statement and no new announcements on market access by the US to China, or by China to the US.

A simple scenario is that the CED has paved way to a major trade conflict between the US and China. Yet, despite tough political rhetoric, economic realities do not seem to support such a view, at least yet.
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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Students, It’s Time to Prepare Your Finances for the Years Ahead / Personal_Finance / Student Finances

By: MoneyFacts

As we approach a brand new academic year, prospective students and those ready to graduate might be considering the most cost-effective bank account that will cover their day-to-day needs. Choosing a good student bank account and finding out how to manage finances will be an essential part of life, especially for those who will be living away from home for the first time.

The latest analysis by moneyfacts.co.uk highlights some of the most essential elements when it comes to choosing the right student account and how students can prepare themselves for the years ahead.

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Local

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Labour Sheffield City Council Playing Game of Thrones with Street Trees / Local / Sheffield

By: Anika_Walayat

Amey / Labour city council's objective is to kill and remove at least 6,000 of Sheffield's biggest and best tree's in support of which Amey use excuses such as that the trees are displacing curb stones. Here tree expert Jeremy Barrell for the BBC One Show takes a close look at many of Sheffield's trees marked for death, and gives his damning verdict that none of the trees he has looked at need to be felled. In stark contrast to Amey / Labour city council that is determined to kill at least 6,000 of Sheffield's street trees so as to avoid annual tree maintenance costs such as pruning and installation of solutions such as flex-paving.

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Currencies

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

USDCNH Is Facing 6.7210 Support / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Franco_Shao

The USDCNH pair failed to settle above 6.8450 resistance and pulled back to 6.7400 area, facing the previous low support at 6.7210. As mentioned before, the pullback would possibly be correction of the uptrend from 6.7210.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Can A Weak US Dollar Really Push The Dow Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Submissions

By Mike Golembesky : After hitting the 161.8 extension up off of the April 18 lows on July 14, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has moved sideways and has traded in a very tight range of less than 1% since that July 14 top. Furthermore, the pattern both up and down off of that July 14 high has been very sloppy, not giving us very much information to work with on the smaller time frames.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Stock Market 37-Week Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Ed_Carlson

While the Advance/Decline line (among other indicators) keeps us bullish in the long-term, short-term, the environment is not so sanguine for equities. Both the Hybrid Lindsay model and a 37 week cycle point to a high last week. We can’t help but wonder if this is the top forecast by Lindsay’s 15 year interval (see Market Update 7.10.17).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Stock Market and Gold Stocks Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Brad_Gudgeon

When I made the charts below over the weekend, I had thought I made a mistake regarding the final top in the SPX being 7/20 and changed it to 7/24 based on the astro/cycle reading.  As it turns out, it looks as though 7/20 was that top (irregular) and we are not making that rare double irregular top I used to see in the 1980’s.

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Politics

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

GOP Leadership Betrays Trump Voters on Obamacare & Debt / Politics / US Politics

By: MoneyMetals

The single-digit approval rating of Congress means precious few people still expect much from the politicians running Washington DC.

Expectations should now ratchet even lower as representatives once again demonstrate just how far their words are from their deeds.

We’ll start with healthcare. The U.S. Senate failed in yet another effort to repeal and replace Obamacare. The prospects for reform any time soon are approaching zero.

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Politics

Monday, July 24, 2017

Saving Illinois: Getting More Bang for Its Bucks / Politics / Debt Crisis 2017

By: Ellen_Brown

Illinois is insolvent, unable to pay its bills. According to Moody’s, the state has $15 billion in unpaid bills and $251 billion in unfunded liabilities. Of these, $119 billion are tied to shortfalls in the state’s pension program. On July 6, 2017, for the first time in two years, the state finally passed a budget, after lawmakers overrode the governor’s veto on raising taxes. But they used massive tax hikes to do it – a 32% increase in state income taxes and 33% increase in state corporate taxes – and still Illinois’ new budget generates only $5 billion, not nearly enough to cover its $15 billion deficit.

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