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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Fed’s Cut Puzzle and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

At the end of July, the Fed trimmed the federal funds rate. However, the dovish U-turn within the FOMC amid solid US economy remains a mystery. We invite you to read our today’s article about the Fed’s cut puzzle and its find out what does it mean for the gold market.

At the end of July, the Fed trimmed the federal funds rate. However, the dovish U-turn within the FOMC – just half a year after an interest rate hike – remains a mystery. After all, the data indicates that the labor market remains strong – unemployment rate is still at the record low – while the GDP has been rising at a moderate rate. While the inflation rate is below the target, it’s still significantly above the deflation zone. So why the heck did the Fed cut rates? The answer to this question is of great importance as long-term implications for gold differ depending on the possible reason.

First, the U.S. central bank could lower interest rates because Powell could not stand the pressure of the White House and the merciless tweets of Donald Trump. The Fed is, of course, nominally independent, but investors should not be naïve. The past presidents and policymakers also applied pressure on the Fed. The most famous example is the story how in 1965, President Lyndon Johnson summoned William McChesney Martin, the Fed Chairman, to his Texas ranch where Johnson physically shoved him around living room, yelling in his face, “Boys are dying in Vietnam, and Bill Martin doesn’t care.” The only difference is that past presidents tended to stick to creating pressure behind closed doors, while Trump is simply more public. If true, it would be a very positive scenario for gold prices. The politicians love low interest rates, and Trump is a particularly vocal supporter of cheap money.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 07, 2019

Gold Stocks Very Overbought / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have grown very overbought after soaring dramatically higher in recent months.  Blasting really far really fast has left this sector really stretched technically and sentimentally.  Excessive gains and greed always soon lead to major corrective selloffs, which are necessary to restore balance.  All bull markets, even the most powerful, flow and ebb.  Big uplegs are inevitably followed by corrections.

With gold and gold stocks plunging hard Thursday morning, the timing of this research thread is certainly lucky.  My weekly-web-essay workflow is well-defined, this happens to be the 877th I’ve written.  I have to decide on each week’s topic by early Wednesdays, to do the research and build necessary spreadsheets and charts that day.  Then I write and proof these essays Thursdays, so they can be published early Fridays.

Even before this latest bout of selling erupted, the serious downside risks facing overbought gold stocks were readily apparent.  According to virtually every technical indicator out there, this sector was looking ever-more extreme in recent weeks.  The longer and farther gold stocks surged, the greater the odds for a selloff.  I warned about this Saturday morning in the conclusion to our latest monthly newsletter for subscribers.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 06, 2019

Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow chart says it all in terms of the volatile month of August we have just witnessed in the count down to the expiry of my 6 month long Dow stock forecast trend forecast as of 1st March 2019. During the month the Dow traded down from near its all time closing high of 27,359 (16th July 2019), trading down to a low 25,300 with the most recent price action attempting to break out of August's trading range of between 26,400 and 25,300 by closing at 26,403.

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Commodities

Friday, September 06, 2019

Why College-Bound Students Consider Buying Gold Instead, Expect 3 Year Gold Bull Run / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Later in today’s program we’ll hear a fascinating interview with Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial. Greg breaks down the recent move in silver, a move off of a breakout point he called spot on on this program a few weeks ago, and also gives us his thoughts on the pullback we saw on Thursday.

Greg also tells us at what price on the downside he expects will provide major support in both gold and silver if we do see a further pullback from here. So, don’t miss my interview with the man they call the Gold Guru, coming up after this week’s market update.

This week brought more big moves in precious metals markets. The biggest mover, no surprise, is silver.

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Economics

Friday, September 06, 2019

Globalization Hits a Brick Wall Named Trump / Economics / Global Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

Until about 50 years ago, people paid attention to the area where they lived. They read local papers, shopped at local merchants, and socialized at local events.

Technology ended all that. Now we get our news from the internet. We buy imported goods. We converse on social media with friends thousands of miles away.

This “globalization” process changed the world, sometimes for the better but with significant side effects. Hence, today’s dissatisfaction.

Now, technology is swinging the pendulum back. Globalization is going in reverse. And again, the process will hurt some people.

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Commodities

Friday, September 06, 2019

Can Crude Oil Price Stay Above $50 To Support Producers Expectations? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent news suggests that oil producers are attempting to increase production levels after failing to attempt to push prices higher by cutting production levels.  Globally, oil producers want to see oil prices rise above $65 ppb in an effort to support profit and production cost expectations.  The real issue for the nation/states that rely on oil production/sales is that the global economy may not cooperate with their expectations over the next 24+ months. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

On August 6th, 2019, we posted this article suggesting that Natural Gas and Crude Oil were setting up diverging trades.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 06, 2019

China SSEC Stock Market Fundamentals and Trend Analysis Forecast / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

"The Trade War is Over - And the winner is China" writes the clueless mainstream press just prior to the announcement of new Trump trade tariffs. This is part 2 of 2 of my latest analysis on the prospects of the Chinese stock market. (Part 1 - Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets). Note the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work China SSEC Stock Market Fundamentals and Trend Analysis Forecast.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 06, 2019

The Stock Market Rally is Almost Over, Next Comes the Big Drop / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

With this morning’s breakout, stocks (blue line) have finally moved to within spitting distance of their upside target as predicted by the credit markets (black line).

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InvestorEducation

Friday, September 06, 2019

When Most Investors Believe Something, It’s Usually Wrong / InvestorEducation / Trader Psychology

By: Jared_Dillian

You have probably heard that $15 trillion of bonds are trading with negative yields. That’s 25% of all sovereign bonds outstanding.

Lots of people are furious about this—but it’s no use getting mad at the market.

Lots of people say it doesn’t make sense.

It makes sense to me, and to a few other people.

If you see something in the market that doesn’t make sense, it’s usually best to stay away, rather than picking a fight with it.

We’re not in uncharted territory here.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 05, 2019

The Great Gold and Silver Precious Metals Melt-Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund presents his dystopian view of the future. The distinguishing feature of fiat money systems is that they are licentious—they are created by corrupt politicians so that they can act without restraint by, for example, promising the citizens the earth in order to improve their chances of being re-elected. The population can pick up the tab later in the form of devalued money that buys them less. The current dollar fiat money system was created by then President Richard Nixon in 1971, hardly an edifying character, and, thinking about it, it was very apt that it was him who created it by getting rid of the gold standard.

It is inherent in fiat money systems that they self-destruct, since they are essentially fraudulent, their modus operandi being to enable politicians to go on endless spending binges, knowing that society at large will foot the bill as a result of their money being devalued. The current fiat money system, which can be dated back to the ending of the gold standard in 1971, is 48 years old and in its death throes. What happens with fiat is that money becomes increasingly worthless at an accelerating rate until it enters the final terminal phase which is a hyperinflationary vortex that results in it becoming utterly worthless—and we are right on the doorstep of that phase now.

When the global financial crisis hit in 2008—2009 the world was at a crossroads—it is was the last chance to clean up the mess and get back to the straight and narrow. Cleaning up the mess would have involved letting the banks and brokerage houses that created it go bust, but those responsible for it didn't want to "face the music" and they had the political influence to make sure they didn't have to. So, society at large had to pick up the tab for their misdemeanors. They were bailed out at huge cost and the system put on life support in the form of massive fiat creation—quantitative easing—which enabled them to drop interest rates to zero to stop debt compounding and then use the cheap money to engage in an orgy of speculation, while the "little guy" continued to be charged usurious rates if he wanted to borrow any money.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Here’s How You Build a Bond Portfolio That Works / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jared_Dillian

When you invest in bonds, do you buy individual bonds or bond funds?

  • Unless you have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.
  • And even if you do have a lot of money, you should probably buy bond funds.

Let me explain.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 05, 2019

UK Surprise Decision to Thwart a No-Deal Brexit Changes Market Dynamics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our August 19th prediction of a market breakdown, as well as our continued research suggesting a breakdown in price was the most likely outcome, is a combination of technical analysis, predictive modeling and our understanding of the market dynamics at play throughout the world.  But, when news like this hits (global economic news, surprise news announcements or any type of positive or negative massive news event) the dynamics of the global markets can shift quite suddenly which we want to explain here. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.

Just a few days ago, it appeared that the US/China trade deal was still 30+ days away from any type of continued discussion and the UK Brexit was likely to take place this week and next.  With US earnings season setting up in September, headed into the holiday season throughout the globe, we believed the downside price move probability was far greater than the upside.  Then, out of almost nowhere, the No-Deal Brexit deal is sidetracked and the British Pound rallies dramatically on the news.

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Companies

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started / Companies / Self Driving Cars

By: Stephen_McBride

“Never get in cars with strangers…”

Did your parents tell you that when you were a kid?

These days, people get in cars with strangers all the time... only they use a smartphone “app” to match them with a specific stranger to drive them around.

As you may have guessed, I’m referring to Uber, the world’s biggest ride-sharing company.

It’s like a taxi company except it doesn’t own any cars. It doesn’t employ any drivers either. Instead, it runs an app that connects drivers with people who need a ride.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Will Fed Actions Create Dow 40,000 - And Triple Gold Prices? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Dan_Amerman

The fears of imminent recession have been multiplying, and this has led to 1) plunging long term bond yields; 2) yield curve inversions and near inversions; and 3) a fearful Federal Reserve going into "dovish" mode in the attempt to prevent such a recession.

We've been here before, or at least we have with regard to those three particular components in combination. And the result was a tripling of already elevated stock market values in a little more than two years. With that tripling then being followed by a historic tripling of inflation-adjusted gold prices over the next decade.

History does not exactly repeat itself - but it does contain some powerful and surprising lessons that are well worth studying, particularly during times of market volatility.

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Politics

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Brexit Incontinent Mendacity / Politics / BrExit

By: Raul_I_Meijer

No, I’m still not taking sides in the Brexit proceedings. I have no horse in that fight. As I’ve said 1000 times, I can fully imagine that a country might want to leave the trappings of the EU. But just as often I’ve said that the way the Tories have gone about leaving appears deeply flawed. They have never seemed to take serious the amount of effort required for a smooth exit.

And after being an EU member for 40+ years, that effort could only be gigantic. But not one moment during Theresa May’s ‘reign’, let alone under Boris, have I gotten the impression that the UK is ready. They’ve spent their time fighting amongst each other about the shape and form Brexit should take, but neglected the practical implications of changing 1000s of rules and regulations and treaties and laws.

And sure, maybe a lot of work was done in secret, can’t very well do nothing at all, but none of that would matter very much; you need to show that you’re ready, not merely suggest it. And from what I can gather from the latest numbers I’ve seen, expectations are still that 50-60% of trucks (lorries) will not have the required paperwork once the UK leaves.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Silver Is Still A Must-Buy At These Levels / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

We are coming into the traditional season for intense silver rallies. With silver recently making a really important breakout, things are setting up for a memorable period in the silver markets.

Furthermore, the decision to buy silver for the long-term is basically a no-brainer given that the Gold/Silver ratio is still around 80. Below, is a long-term Gold/Silver ratio chart as well as a Silver chart (from macrotrends.net), to illustrate this:

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Commodities

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Gold as a Strategic Asset - in 2019 and Beyond / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Recently, the World Gold Council published a 2019 edition of a report on gold as a strategic asset. The industry organization released later the UK edition as well. Plenty of food for thought. How can the learnings from these publications strengthen our investment decisions?

Why Gold?

Why investors should add gold, that does not bear any yield, to their portfolios? There are a few really good reasons. First, gold is a source of long-term capital gains, and the gold market is both deep and liquid (liquidity is an important but sometimes forgotten factor when establishing a strategic holding by investors). The yellow metal has not only outperformed all major fiat currencies, but also bonds or commodities. According to the WGC, the price of gold has increased by an average of 10 percent per year since 1971 when gold began to be freely traded following the collapse of Bretton Woods. It makes gold’s long-term returns comparable to stocks.

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Politics

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Are Central Bankers Taking Sides the in US 2020 Presidential Election? / Politics / Central Banks

By: MoneyMetals

Individual investors are nervous about the stock market and the possibility of recession.

Meanwhile, institutional money from banks and hedge funds is keeping a bid under equities, pushing stock prices higher after every minor dip. Together with the “Plunge Protection Team,” they are keeping the wheels from coming off the stock market cart.

The question is whether that will continue. Or, to be more precise, will we see the monetary stimulus typically expected from the Fed during an economic slowdown, or will central bankers try to torpedo Trump’s re-election campaign as a Fed insider has just proposed?

President Donald Trump is increasingly critical of the Federal Reserve and chairman Jerome Powell for refusing to cut interest rates rapidly enough. He wants to place the blame for any recession and falling stock prices on the central bank and not on the trade war with China.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

The Inverted Yield Curve Is Actually a Good Sign for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Robert_Ross

August 14 was the worst day of the year for stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 800 points in a single day.

The stock market plunged because of a serious economic warning sign called a yield curve inversion.

A yield curve inversion is a canary in the coal mine for the economy. It’s happened before every recession in the last 50 years.

However, there’s no reason to panic.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Rising US Dollar Mutes Precious Metals Moves and Puts Pressures on Global Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Rising US Dollar continues to shift the investing landscape as a stronger US Dollar mutes the price acceleration in precious metals and continue to put pricing pressures on the global economy.  The current levels of the US Dollar Index, above 99, clearly illustrates how the shifting landscape of the global economies has changed.  Prior to 2014/2015, when a minor currency/market crisis hit China and capital controls were installed in China to help reduce capital outflows, the US Dollar Index average price range was between 73 and 90.  Of course, the US Dollar Index weakened in 2008-09 and rotated within this range after 2010 – settling near 80 near the beginning of 2014. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter

So, this impressive rally in the US Dollar throughout the 2015-2016 US Presidential election cycle, as well as the continued rally since the lows near December 2018, is not something that we can simply chalk up to normal price rotation.  Something dramatic has shifted in the global markets since 2015/2016 and the new trend is US Dollar strength.

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