Tuesday, February 05, 2019
A Crash is Coming - Bonds Yields, Oil and Credit Are Rolling Over / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s cut through the nonsense.
The only reason that stocks are rallying is because investors are hoping the Fed has reinstated its policy of inflating stocks…
However, HOPE is very different from reality. And the Fed hinting at halting its rate hikes and possibly altering the schedule of QT is VERY different from cutting rates and engaging in QE.
Put simply, a Fed that says it might be less hawkish is not a dovish Fed. And the markets know it, though stocks always “get it last.”
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Tuesday, February 05, 2019
Debt Can’t Save China Anymore / Economics / China Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
The 2008 financial crisis hit China hard, as it did everyone else.
Not every country responded like China did, though. Most couldn’t do what China did because they lacked either financial resources or political ability.
China had both. And so it launched a stimulus program of mind-boggling proportions.
Tuesday, February 05, 2019
Australia Stock Market to Enter a Very Sad Period - Update / Stock-Markets / Austrailia
By: readtheticker
The ASX has held up since 2009, and it has done this ugly!
Previous Posts
Australia to enter a very sad period
Power of Mean Reversion with the Aussie ASX
The video below explains the main fundamentals concerning the Australian equity and currency markets.
On a possible US or World recession.
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Tuesday, February 05, 2019
NewsGuard Filter Starts the Next Fake News Trend / Politics / Mainstream Media
By: BATR
Any search engine that filters content is engaged in censorship. When the tech giants were starting out they used traffic stats as a basis for popular ranking of results. Yahoo and Google provided reasonable and mostly reliable information retrieval. Those days are long gone and the fallout of banishing information or banning entire sites to a black memory hole has only one conclusion. The artificial intelligence revolution leads to the heterodoxy of the culture. Couple such algorithms with the underlying social and political bias of the technocratic snobs, who want to control a false reality, and you end up with a planet that is unable to decipher the truth.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Two Winning Gold Trade Setups – GDXJ and ROKU / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We are not always correct in our calls about the market. Professional researchers and analysts must understand that attempting to accurately predict the future outcome of any commodity, stock, index or ETF is impossible to be 100% accurate. Yet, we are pleased that our proprietary price modeling and analysis tools continue to provide us with very clear triggers and alert us to price moves before they happen.
Today, we are sharing two recent trades we executed with our members that resulted in some decent profits. The first example is our GDXJ trade. We had been in a Long position since before the beginning of 2019 expecting Gold and Miners to rally. Our price modeling systems suggested that after price reached $1300, we may experience a brief price pause over the next 45 days or so. Thus, we pulled the profits in this trade recently to lock in 10.5% profit and to allow us to re-enter when our modeling systems suggest the price pullback has ended.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Stocks Going Sideways, Flat Correction or Some Topping Pattern? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks were mixed on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index remained above the 2,700 mark. So will the uptrend continue? Or is this a topping pattern ahead of a downward reversal?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.3% on Friday, as investors hesitated following the recent advances. So volatility was relatively small despite the monthly jobs data release. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation on Wednesday and it continued slightly higher in the late last week. The market is now at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% (2,713.88). It has gained 370 points from the late December medium-term low, but it is still around 235 points below the September 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,710-2,720, marked by the mentioned 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Friday's daily high. The resistance level is also at 2,750-2,760. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,650, marked by the recent fluctuations. The support level is also at 2,615-2,625, marked by the short-term local lows.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Time for a Breakout in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
First we need to define what a breakout actually is. Its when the price breaks a pattern or a range and a new trend is therefore established.
Today, people are all too quick to refer to almost every move higher as a breakout. Just google “Gold Breakout” and you’ll see what I mean.
Sure, closing above $1300 was a breakout for Gold. But that’s hardly significant. If and when Gold surpasses the wall (resistance at $1350-$1375), it will mark a real breakout.
The good news is Gold is currently in a much better position both fundamentally and technically than it was in 2016, 2017 and 2018.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Bitcoin Price Analysis and Trend Forecast 2019 / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
2018 was the year the bitcoin crypto bubble burst that witnessed the bitcoin price first collapse to a floor of $6000, from which each attempted bounce failed to generate any follow through, and the longer the failure for a breakout higher continued then the greater the probability that the price would eventually break lower, below the $6000 floor. Which is what transpired during November that saw Bitcoin plunge to a new low of $3,100 by Mid December, a far cry from the fantasy of first revisiting $20k and then $50k that a naive 'manipulated' Bitcoin community had pinned their hopes and dreams on whilst immersed in an endless feedback loop of perma bull bitcoin pump mania commentary, that was the mainstay of the internet during 2018, whilst the manipulators were dumping their holdings onto the naive players. Just like what the pump and dumpers have been doing with penny stocks for over 100 years!
Monday, February 04, 2019
Stock Market Fib Resistance Warning to Err on Side of Caution / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The S&P 500 (SPX) is right at a price zone pointing more towards a meaningful give-back in the short-term.
This zone of resistance can be viewed through the Fibonacci price and time relationships on the daily SPX chart.
As the chart shows, as of Friday's close, the SPX resided approximately 16% above its late December lows, amounting to an exact 62% Fibonacci recovery of the entire prior decline from the Sep 21 all-time-high at 2940.91 to the Dec 26 low at 2346.58.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Darker Clouds over Europe / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Dan_Steinbock
Not only is Europe’s expansionary cycle fading, but the region is about to face challenges that it has to tackle amid growing political fragmentation.Italy slipped into recession in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to new data. France continues to be haunted by Yellow vests protests. Germany has entered an era of uncertainty. And Brexit overshadows the UK future.
In the absence of Trump’s tariffs, Europe could have benefited from a nascent recovery of world trade, investment and finance. But now even these hopes are diminishing.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Stock Market Decision Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Long-term trend resuming?
Intermediate trend – Countertrend may be over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, February 04, 2019
Venezuela Trying to Sell Gold to Stay Afloat / Politics / Venezuela
By: Richard_Mills
Venezuela is reaching for its last card as the deck collapses on President Nicolas Maduro’s failed regime.
The country is selling its gold in order to provide liquidity for imports of basic goods.
You know your regime’s days are numbered when you start eyeing your bullion. Indeed gold’s status as store of value, as money, the only currency available when yours is worthless, has come into play with respect to the crisis that has been unfolding in Venezuela over the last couple of years and appears to be reaching its peak.
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Is The Stock Market Manic? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX challenged Long-term support at 16.39, closing beneath it on Friday. Primary Cycle [C] has been delayed another week. While investors are heaving a sigh of relief, the Wave structure and Cycles suggest a strong reversal may be imminent.
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Sunday, February 03, 2019
Some Optimistic Precious Metals Charts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
Below is a weekly chart for the GDX we’ve been following for a long time watching the two and a half year falling wedge completing about 8 weeks ago when we finally got the breakout. The backtest to the top rail took about seven weeks to complete with this weeks price action possibly beginning the impulse move higher. To be honest I still can’t rule out another backtest to the top rail and the 30 week ema, but at this point it appears the breaking out and backtesting process looks to be complete.
Sunday, February 03, 2019
Is the Stock Market Ever Going to Pullback? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
By now everyone is aware that these “crash & rally” patterns are usually followed by a pullback or retest. Most of these pullbacks/retests occur once the S&P has reached its 50% retracement. But with the S&P now having retraced 60% of its Q4 2018 decline, many traders are doubting whether or not the S&P will pullback/retest at all, or if it’s going straight to new all time highs.
Saturday, February 02, 2019
Hyperinflation -- A Kaleidoscope Of Uses And Abuses / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The word “hyperinflation” is sprinkled throughout the press each day. We read that Iran is hyperinflating. The same is written about Zimbabwe and Venezuela, as well as a potpourri of other countries that are experiencing inflation flare ups. While Iran came close to a hyperinflation in the fall of 2012, it has never experienced an episode of hyperinflation. And, while Zimbabwe experienced hyperinflation episodes in 2007-2008 and 2017, it is not hyperinflating now. At present, Venezuela is the only country experiencing a hyperinflation. It’s clear that journalists and those they interview tend to play fast and loose with the word “hyperinflation.”
To clean up the hyperinflation landscape, we must heed the words of the great Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founders of the Austrian School of Economics, who, in 1891, wrote “…We too must bring into our science a strict order and discipline, which we are still far from having…by a disorderly and ambiguous terminology we are led into the most palpable mistakes and misunderstandings – all these failings are of so frequent occurrence in our science that they almost seem to be characteristic of its style.”
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Saturday, February 02, 2019
Without A Currency Board, Venezuela's Opposition Will Fail / Politics / Venezuela
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Venezuela’s currency, the bolivar, has tanked. Just take a look at the ugly chart below.
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Saturday, February 02, 2019
The U.S. Declares Economic War Against Venezuela / Economics / Venezuela
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Since the election of Hugo Chavez in December of 1998, Venezuelans have embraced Chavismo. This peculiar form of socialism has allowed Venezuela to morph into what is in essence an organized crime syndicate and has pushed the country in an economic death spiral. For the stunning evidence of this death spiral, we need look no further than Venezuela’s inflation rate.
Today, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate is 112,189%/yr. The chart below tracks the daily measurements of this annual rate. Unlike the fantastic inflation forecasts thrown around by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the data in the chart are real measurements—accurate measurements.
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Saturday, February 02, 2019
Tesco Cheap KitKat's to Win £8000 Holidays, plus 100 Travel Prizes Per day / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps
By: Anika_Walayat
KitKat's new promotion went live online on the 1st of Feb, where the top prizes are 10 holidays worth £8,000 each which can be instantly won by finding a golden ticket inside a Kitkat packet. Additionally 100 getaway goodies are available to be won EVERY DAY just by entering the codes found on the inside of kitkat wrappers.
Watch our video for the full details of what should prove to be an easy to win promotion. Especially given that multi-packs of Kitkat's can currently be had for just 90pence, as opposed to £2 to £2.20, means that NOW is the time to stock up!
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Friday, February 01, 2019
Crude Oil – How Many Minutes to Midnight Before We Act? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Yesterday, some might have wondered where is the limit to the upswing in oil. It would be natural to expect it to catch up to e.g. gold and silver upswings. Would be, could be. We just saw something that made us act. Diligently, with foresight and confidence – when the odds are with us. It’s time to share it with you.
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