Saturday, March 09, 2019
Strong Historical Probability of Natural Gas Long Trades Setting Up / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Would you believe that March and April, historically, shows a 2 to 1 statistical probability of NG moving higher. Each of these months shows, historically, that NG has a strong potential for at least a $1.00 upside price move in both March and April. Only 1/3 of the historically testing time (23 years) did the price of NG actually decrease.
How do we know this? We’ve built proprietary price modeling and data modeling solutions that allow us to isolate and verify this data. This data was tested on a Monthly price basis for the statistics we’ve provided, above. When we run this same test on Weekly data, the results continue to support our conclusions.
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Saturday, March 09, 2019
Various Stock Market Indicators are Plunging. Run for the Hills! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 is pulling back from its 2800 resistance. Meanwhile, the latest readings for various widely publicized technical and fundamental indicators plunged. And right on cue, mainstream financial media broadcasted these indicators with a megaphone because hey, nothing sells like bad news. (Modern day finance is all about the marketing hype).
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Saturday, March 09, 2019
Unsecured Debt hits £15,400 per UK Household / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Submissions
It has been revealed in statistics provided by the trade union body, the TUC, that unsecured debt in the UK has now reached a new high of £15,400 per British household. To compile its figures, the TUC compared the total amount of money lent in overdrafts, personal loans, payday loans, store cards, and credit card debts.
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Friday, March 08, 2019
QE4EVER Stock Market 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market soared has soared since the start of 2019, this despite President Trump shutting much of the US government down for 5 weeks accompanied by increasing global economic doom and gloom from a slowdown in China, to Germany teetering on the brink of recession a with Italy already having tipped into recession.
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Friday, March 08, 2019
Practical Prepping for Financial SHTF Scenarios / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Preppers – the sort of people who build bunkers, stockpile supplies, and bear arms – aim to survive “SHTF” scenarios.
When war breaks out, when the power grid goes down, when the banks fail, when the U.S. dollar collapses, when social unrest spreads, when the stuff hits the fan… will you be prepared?
Risks are rising.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists maintains a “Doomsday Clock.” For 2019, it “sets the Doomsday Clock at two minutes to midnight—the closest it has ever been to apocalypse.”
Friday, March 08, 2019
The Real New Deal / Politics / Environmental Issues
By: Raul_I_Meijer
While we’re on the issue of the Green New Deal, here’s an article by Dr. D. with an intro by Dr. D., one he sent me in the mail that contained the actual article, and that I think shouldn’t go to waste. I hope he agrees.
Waste being the key term here, because he arrives at the same conclusion I’ve often remarked upon: that our societies and economies exist to maximize waste production. Make them more efficient and they collapse.
Ergo: no Green New Deal is any use if you don’t radically change the economic models. Let’s see AOC et al address that, and then we can talk. It’s not as if a shift towards wind and solar will decrease the economic need for waste production (though it may change the waste composition), and thus efficiency is merely a double-edged sword at the very best.
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Friday, March 08, 2019
How High Cost Credit Affects Financially Unstable Families / Personal_Finance / Credit Cards & Scoring
By: Submissions
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Friday, March 08, 2019
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
I know it may have come as a shock to some of you on why I raised some capital by selling a few PM stocks today. Whenever you see a false breakout of any chart pattern and the price action trades below the bottom rail of the original pattern that can setup a bearish situation. It’s like a head fake. The stock forms what looks like a great breakout and maybe even accompanied by a breakout gap. Everything looks fine. Then you get the backtest to confirm the breakout. Sometimes we can see several days of backtesting waiting for the breakout move to begin.
The first sign of trouble is when you see the price action trade below the breakout point or below the top rail in this case the bullish rising wedge. Many times the trade can still be saved if the bottom rail of the rising wedge ends up holding support. Once the bottom rail gives way then red flags start flying that something is amise. Many times when you see a false breakout of a chart pattern you can see a strong move in the opposite direction. Again, its like a head fake that gets you moving in the wrong direction before the real move takes place.
Lets start by looking at a daily chart for AU which built out a very nice looking rising wedge formation complete with a breakout gap above the top rail. AU was one of the leaders and it looked like it was showing the way higher for the PM stocks but after the reversal bar at the top of the chart AU declined back into the rising wedge negating the breakout. All was not lost yet as the bottom rail of the falling wedge could still provide support and save the pattern. Once the bottom rail was lost that put me on high alert to watch the price action very carefully for more deterioration. Monday morning AU opened with a downside gap and today the price action closed below the 50 day ema which strongly suggested to me it was time to get out of this trade.
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Friday, March 08, 2019
Stock Market Downward Reversal? Stocks Still Relatively Close to Their Recent Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday's trading session was bearish, as stocks retraced their Tuesday's advance. However, the market remained at its recent local lows. So is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.9% on Wednesday, retracing their Tuesday's advance, as investors took some short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday, before reversing its intraday advance and getting back below the 2,800 level. The market continued to fluctuate close to the previous medium-term local highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,800-2,820, marked by the medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at around 2,765-2,770, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.
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Friday, March 08, 2019
Gold and the Political Theater: Is The Tail Wagging the Dog? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
As the old saying goes, politics is a show business for ugly people. Fair enough, but what does it have to do with gold? Let’s jump right in and find out!
There Is No Trade War
Economic reports are rarely fun. But when we read the latest US trade report, we could not help but laugh. It turns out that the US goods and services deficit was $59.8 billion in December, up $9.5 billion, or almost 19 percent, from $50.3 billion in November. For 2018, the goods and services deficit was $621.0 billion, an increase of $68.8 billion or 12.5 percent, from 2017. In other words, despite Trump’s “America First” policies and trade wars, including tariffs aimed at shrinking the trade deficit, the US trade gap has widened. Actually, it surged to a 10-year high last year, as one can see in the chart below. As if that was not enough, the shortfall with China hit a record peak! Isn’t that funny?
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Friday, March 08, 2019
Is Recession Near? / Economics / Recession 2019
By: John_Mauldin
I trust Dave Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He’s been a perpetual speaker at my SIC conference for at least 10 years.
Dave is screaming recession every chance he gets, but he is not a perma-bear by any means.
He’s been bullish at the right times in the past. Dave turned uber-bullish 9 or 10 years ago. It was way outside the consensus at the time, but he has never cared much about being part of the consensus.
So while I don’t entirely agree with him this time, I pay attention.
Friday, March 08, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of YY Inc (YY) / Companies / Company Chart Analysis
By: WavePatternTraders
The recent rally from the lows made in December 2018 appears to be in 3 waves, so I suspected it a 4th wave as part of either idea, at this stage, I would still expect to see a new low based on both of the ideas. The difference is that one idea will end an impulse wave (5 wave decline) and complete the decline from the highs made in Jan 2018. The other idea would still see a bounce, however a new low thereafter would be favored.I can see the pros and cons for both ideas, but I would turn more bullish from a new low as even the less bullish idea (idea 2) would imply a rally again for wave [4]. So it would present a bullish opportunity below the lows made in December around $54.00 - 49.00.
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Friday, March 08, 2019
Consumer Behavior: What you need to know to read your Audience / Companies / Retail Sector
By: Submissions
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Thursday, March 07, 2019
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Were now into the 11th year of this ageing stocks bull market for which my underlying message for its duration has been the same, one of "the greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".
Whilst all bull markets eventually come to an end. However, that end ALWAYS tends to prove temporary, soon appearing as inconsequential blips on the long-term trend chart as the overall inflationary stock market trend is exponential! Which is why the Great Stock Market crashes of the past such as 1929 and 1987 are barely visible blips today.
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Thursday, March 07, 2019
Millennial Home Buyers Not as Active as Boomers Were in US Property Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Andrea Riquier, my favorite commentator on the housing market, grabbed my attention again with her 2018 MarketWatch article entitled “Missing Millennial Homeownership Endangers the American Dream.” You can follow her on Twitter @ARiquier.She pointed to a report from the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center that suggests the “story of Millennials and homeownership is in many ways a story of inequality in America – and one that might be getting worse,” as she put it.
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Thursday, March 07, 2019
How Will Boomers Affect US Real Estate and Nursing Homes / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Recently we talked about why Millennials aren’t buying a house at the same rate as their Boomer and Gen X parents. Today, let’s talk about how Boomers and Gen Xers are actually contributing to the housing shortage, and so driving up prices and thwarting the ability of younger people to buy.And…
Why that could start to change rapidly just ahead.
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Thursday, March 07, 2019
How the New “Green Deal” Has Already Worked / Politics / Environmental Issues
By: Rodney_Johnson
If you have assets, income, or both, then you are responsible for every bad thing that has happened in the U.S. But don’t worry! The Green New Deal, co-sponsored by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey, will give you a chance to fix it.All you have to do is sign over, well, everything to the central government, which will then use its wisdom to determine how we should live for the foreseeable future so that all outcomes are equalized and no one is left behind.
Good-paying jobs? Check.
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Thursday, March 07, 2019
KIND Elevates Nut Butter Category with a Wholesome Recipe / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness
By: Stefan Paulo
NEW YORK (March 6, 2019) – For the first time in its 15-year tradition of redefining and bettering snacking categories, KIND Healthy Snacks (KIND) entered the nut butter segment by releasing KIND® Nut Butter Filled Snack Bars.
“Since day one, KIND has been committed to upholding its brand promise -- to create innovative, premium foods that are both healthy and tasty,” says KIND’s CEO and Founder, Daniel Lubetzky. “KIND Nut Butter Filled Snack Bars continue that promise.”
Thursday, March 07, 2019
Brexit Does Not Stop Bitcoin’s Growth in the UK / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
The only thing that is certain in the UK right now is uncertainty, and this is causing fluctuations in the stock markets, as the British public awaits the ‘deal or no deal’ Brexit outcome with bated breath.
Despite the tumultuous and unprecedented period of change we are in, the value of cryptocurrency has not stopped growing. From Bitcoin to Ethereum and countless other cryptocurrencies that are now available (well over 1,000, and new ones being created all the time) the cryptocurrency market continues to grow, comparatively unhindered by current ructions in the Eurozone.
While many businesses keep their powder dry and await the Brexit outcome, cryptocurrency and blockchain start-ups achieved record breaking growth in 2018. The UK is currently dominating growth in tech start-ups across Europe, with £2.29 billion in total venture capital, exceeding that of Germany, which had £1.38 billion, and France, which had £1.03 billion.
Thursday, March 07, 2019
How Private Sector Debt Bubble Could Trigger the Next Financial Crisis / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The $22 trillion official national debt is a much discussed problem, even as politicians exhibit zero motivation to do anything about it. But as big an economic overhang as it is, government debt isn’t likely to trigger the next financial crisis.
Yes, servicing the growing federal debt bubble will depress GDP growth, cause the value of the dollar to drop, and raise inflation risks. But the bubble itself won’t necessarily burst – not anytime soon.
As long as politicians face no political consequences for deficit spending, and as long as the Federal Reserve keeps the Treasury bond market propped up… then many more trillions can be added to the national debt.