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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yield Curve Inversion

An inverted yield curve is basically when the yield on 2 year US government bond exceeds the 10 year US bond yield as worried investors opt to disinvest from risky assets in favour of safer longer term government bonds thus driving down long bond yields below that of nearer term bonds. And the closer the yield curve gets towards towards an inversion the greater the likelihood for a future recession. So far the yield curve inversion has successfully forecast the last 3 economic downturns in the United States. Though the YCI has proved less reliable elsewhere, especially for Australia.

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Commodities

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Should We Rethink Nuclear Power? / Commodities / Nuclear Power

By: OilPrice_Com

While it seems to fly in the face of everything we believe and have been taught about nuclear power, it may actually be the safest form of power production that we have. Ironically, the immense potency of the power of splitting an atom is simultaneously what makes nuclear weapons so dangerous as well as what makes nuclear power so safe.

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Commodities

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Palladium Hits Record High / Commodities / Palladium

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold is no longer the most valuable precious metal! Palladium dethroned it! We invite you, thus, to read our today’s article about that metal and find out what is the fundamental outlook for the palladium market.

We have a new record! Please take a look at the chart below, which displays the palladium prices since the beginning of the year. As one can see, the price of palladium soared in the first two months more than 20 percent, jumping above $1,500!

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Commodities

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Strong Historical Probability of Natural Gas Long Trades Setting Up / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Would you believe that March and April, historically, shows a 2 to 1 statistical probability of NG moving higher.  Each of these months shows, historically, that NG has a strong potential for at least a $1.00 upside price move in both March and April.  Only 1/3 of the historically testing time (23 years) did the price of NG actually decrease.

How do we know this?  We’ve built proprietary price modeling and data modeling solutions that allow us to isolate and verify this data.  This data was tested on a Monthly price basis for the statistics we’ve provided, above.  When we run this same test on Weekly data, the results continue to support our conclusions.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Various Stock Market Indicators are Plunging. Run for the Hills! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P 500 is pulling back from its 2800 resistance. Meanwhile, the latest readings for various widely publicized technical and fundamental indicators plunged. And right on cue, mainstream financial media broadcasted these indicators with a megaphone because hey, nothing sells like bad news. (Modern day finance is all about the marketing hype).

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Unsecured Debt hits £15,400 per UK Household / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: Submissions

It has been revealed in statistics provided by the trade union body, the TUC, that unsecured debt in the UK has now reached a new high of £15,400 per British household. To compile its figures, the TUC compared the total amount of money lent in overdrafts, personal loans, payday loans, store cards, and credit card debts.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 08, 2019

QE4EVER Stock Market 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market soared has soared since the start of 2019, this despite President Trump shutting much of the US government down for 5 weeks accompanied by increasing global economic doom and gloom from a slowdown in China, to Germany teetering on the brink of recession a with Italy already having tipped into recession.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 08, 2019

Practical Prepping for Financial SHTF Scenarios / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Preppers – the sort of people who build bunkers, stockpile supplies, and bear arms – aim to survive “SHTF” scenarios.

When war breaks out, when the power grid goes down, when the banks fail, when the U.S. dollar collapses, when social unrest spreads, when the stuff hits the fan… will you be prepared?

Risks are rising.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists maintains a “Doomsday Clock.” For 2019, it “sets the Doomsday Clock at two minutes to midnight—the closest it has ever been to apocalypse.”

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Politics

Friday, March 08, 2019

The Real New Deal / Politics / Environmental Issues

By: Raul_I_Meijer

While we’re on the issue of the Green New Deal, here’s an article by Dr. D. with an intro by Dr. D., one he sent me in the mail that contained the actual article, and that I think shouldn’t go to waste. I hope he agrees.

Waste being the key term here, because he arrives at the same conclusion I’ve often remarked upon: that our societies and economies exist to maximize waste production. Make them more efficient and they collapse.

Ergo: no Green New Deal is any use if you don’t radically change the economic models. Let’s see AOC et al address that, and then we can talk. It’s not as if a shift towards wind and solar will decrease the economic need for waste production (though it may change the waste composition), and thus efficiency is merely a double-edged sword at the very best.

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Personal_Finance

Friday, March 08, 2019

How High Cost Credit Affects Financially Unstable Families / Personal_Finance / Credit Cards & Scoring

By: Submissions

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Commodities

Friday, March 08, 2019

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Pot Pourri / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

I know it may have come as a shock to some of you on why I raised some capital by selling a few PM stocks today. Whenever you see a false breakout of any chart pattern and the price action trades below the bottom rail of the original pattern that can setup a bearish situation. It’s like a head fake. The stock forms what looks like a great breakout and maybe even accompanied by a breakout gap. Everything looks fine. Then you get the backtest to confirm the breakout. Sometimes we can see several days of backtesting waiting for the breakout move to begin.

The first sign of trouble is when you see the price action trade below the breakout point or below the top rail in this case the bullish rising wedge. Many times the trade can still be saved if the bottom rail of the rising wedge ends up holding support. Once the bottom rail gives way then red flags start flying that something is amise. Many times when you see a false breakout of a chart pattern you can see a strong move in the opposite direction. Again, its like a head fake that gets you moving in the wrong direction before the real move takes place.

Lets start by looking at a daily chart for AU which built out a very nice looking rising wedge formation complete with a breakout gap above the top rail. AU was one of the leaders and it looked like it was showing the way higher for the PM stocks but after the reversal bar at the top of the chart AU declined back into the rising wedge negating the breakout. All was not lost yet as the bottom rail of the falling wedge could still provide support and save the pattern. Once the bottom rail was lost that put me on high alert to watch the price action very carefully for more deterioration. Monday morning AU opened with a downside gap and today the price action closed below the 50 day ema which strongly suggested to me it was time to get out of this trade.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 08, 2019

Stock Market Downward Reversal? Stocks Still Relatively Close to Their Recent Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Wednesday's trading session was bearish, as stocks retraced their Tuesday's advance. However, the market remained at its recent local lows. So is this a topping pattern or just a pause before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.9% on Wednesday, retracing their Tuesday's advance, as investors took some short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% on Monday, before reversing its intraday advance and getting back below the 2,800 level. The market continued to fluctuate close to the previous medium-term local highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Wednesday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,800-2,820, marked by the medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is at around 2,765-2,770, marked by the recent local lows. The support level is also at the previous daily gap up of 2,757.90-2,760.24.

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Commodities

Friday, March 08, 2019

Gold and the Political Theater: Is The Tail Wagging the Dog? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As the old saying goes, politics is a show business for ugly people. Fair enough, but what does it have to do with gold? Let’s jump right in and find out!

There Is No Trade War

Economic reports are rarely fun. But when we read the latest US trade report, we could not help but laugh. It turns out that the US goods and services deficit was $59.8 billion in December, up $9.5 billion, or almost 19 percent, from $50.3 billion in November. For 2018, the goods and services deficit was $621.0 billion, an increase of $68.8 billion or 12.5 percent, from 2017. In other words, despite Trump’s “America First” policies and trade wars, including tariffs aimed at shrinking the trade deficit, the US trade gap has widened. Actually, it surged to a 10-year high last year, as one can see in the chart below. As if that was not enough, the shortfall with China hit a record peak! Isn’t that funny?

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Economics

Friday, March 08, 2019

Is Recession Near? / Economics / Recession 2019

By: John_Mauldin

I trust Dave Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. He’s been a perpetual speaker at my SIC conference for at least 10 years.

Dave is screaming recession every chance he gets, but he is not a perma-bear by any means.

He’s been bullish at the right times in the past. Dave turned uber-bullish 9 or 10 years ago. It was way outside the consensus at the time, but he has never cared much about being part of the consensus.

So while I don’t entirely agree with him this time, I pay attention.

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Companies

Friday, March 08, 2019

Elliott Wave Analysis of YY Inc (YY) / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: WavePatternTraders

The recent rally from the lows made in December 2018 appears to be in 3 waves, so I suspected it a 4th wave as part of either idea, at this stage, I would still expect to see a new low based on both of the ideas. The difference is that one idea will end an impulse wave (5 wave decline)  and complete the decline from the highs made in Jan 2018. The other idea would still see a bounce, however a new low thereafter would be favored.

I can see the pros and cons for both ideas, but I would turn more bullish from a new low as even the less bullish idea (idea 2) would imply a rally again for wave [4]. So it would present a bullish opportunity below the lows made in December around $54.00 - 49.00.
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Companies

Friday, March 08, 2019

Consumer Behavior: What you need to know to read your Audience / Companies / Retail Sector

By: Submissions

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 07, 2019

The Exponential Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Were now into the 11th year of this ageing stocks bull market for which my underlying message for its duration has been the same, one of "the greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".

Whilst all bull markets eventually come to an end. However, that end ALWAYS tends to prove temporary, soon appearing as inconsequential blips on the long-term trend chart as the overall inflationary stock market trend is exponential! Which is why the Great Stock Market crashes of the past such as 1929 and 1987 are barely visible blips today.

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Housing-Market

Thursday, March 07, 2019

Millennial Home Buyers Not as Active as Boomers Were in US Property Market / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Harry_Dent

Andrea Riquier, my favorite commentator on the housing market, grabbed my attention again with her 2018 MarketWatch article entitled “Missing Millennial Homeownership Endangers the American Dream.” You can follow her on Twitter @ARiquier.

She pointed to a report from the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center that suggests the “story of Millennials and homeownership is in many ways a story of inequality in America – and one that might be getting worse,” as she put it.

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Housing-Market

Thursday, March 07, 2019

How Will Boomers Affect US Real Estate and Nursing Homes / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Harry_Dent

Recently we talked about why Millennials aren’t buying a house at the same rate as their Boomer and Gen X parents. Today, let’s talk about how Boomers and Gen Xers are actually contributing to the housing shortage, and so driving up prices and thwarting the ability of younger people to buy.

And…

Why that could start to change rapidly just ahead.
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Politics

Thursday, March 07, 2019

How the New “Green Deal” Has Already Worked / Politics / Environmental Issues

By: Rodney_Johnson

If you have assets, income, or both, then you are responsible for every bad thing that has happened in the U.S. But don’t worry! The Green New Deal, co-sponsored by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey, will give you a chance to fix it.

All you have to do is sign over, well, everything to the central government, which will then use its wisdom to determine how we should live for the foreseeable future so that all outcomes are equalized and no one is left behind.

Good-paying jobs? Check.

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